Who is going to win the Blu-Ray/HD-DVD war? - Page 3

ETA: Feel free to ignore this as it's all been expressed better above.

You're welcome to that opinion but it's ignoring the facts. Per HD player sold, HD-DVD sells more movies. Players are finally getting to $200. This lower price will make it more accessible to much more people. It will take a significantly lower number of new hardware purchasers to get HD-DVD sales equal with Blu-ray.

Also this 'short term' Paramount deal is a year and a half and covers TWO Christmases. HD-DVD players may still be too expensive this year but I can guarantee they'll be sub $200 next year. With Universal, Paramount, and Dreamworks all locked in for being HD-DVD exclusive through that holiday season, it's hard to see the format war being over by then.

If HD-DVD manages a strong holiday season this year and maintains or accelerates its growth through next year and Blu-ray doesn't increase its attach rate, it's difficult to see how they would not catch up in sales.

Blade Runner, The Prestige, all of Kubrick's titles, A Scanner Darkly, Letters from Iwo Jima, Casino Royale, Hellboy, Terminator, T2, Die Hard trilogy, Spider Man trilogy, Goodfellas, Layer Cake, Close Encounters of the Third Kind? All of Speilberg's future releases? All Disney and Pixar films?

We can play this game all day long. :P

Kubrick titles, Scanner Darkly, Blade Runner, Iwo Jima, Goodfellas, Prestige (UK) are all on hd dvd as well.

Blade Runner: Irrelevant.
The Prestige: I bought it. Would probably do it again.
Kubrick: Irrelevant
A Scanner Darkly: I assume you're kidding.
Letters from Iwo Jima: Again, you're kidding?
Casino Royale: I bought it, and would again.
Hellboy: Get a grip, man.
Terminator: Irrelevant
T2: Might be a useful exclusive (if it is)
Die Hard Trilogy: Probably irrelevant.
Spider-man trilogy: Pretty big exclusive.
Goodfellas: Irrelevant.
Layer Cake: You're killing me here!
Close Encounters of the Third Kind: Irrelevant
Speilberg's future films: Who knows.
Disney: Who knows.
Pixar: The biggest edge Blu Ray has.

People don't rush out to re-buy classic films in HD. Even cinephiles might hesitate. Case in point (and restated): I LOVE Die Hard. I think it's the perfect action movie. I will NOT buy it in HD, because I don't see how it would benefit the film. It's not even a financial consideration. If someone like me is debating this, the family that rushes out to buy Daddy Day Camp sure isn't going to snatch it up.

I'll admit that I don't own a single Blu-ray movie (despite having owned an HDTV and a PS3 since February). The only movies that I've really been tempted to buy have been District B13 and Casino Royale. Going forward I might buy the Die Hard or Spiderman sets. The thing is I already own 2/3rd of those movies on DVD anyway (I've already got the ultimate Die Hard box set and the first 2 Spiderman movies).

I mean, I want to see GFOOCC in HD as much as the next guy but maybe I would be better off just getting an HD TiVo and recording stuff off the HD premium channels instead of stuck with discs that I may only be able to watch on my PS3.

That's a good point. I bought fantastic four on DVD for like, 10 bucks. I wouldn't do it again, but it was pleasant enough. Now that my decision is spending $30 on the Blu Ray for FF:ROTSS...uh, no. Not a chance. HBOHD looks great, and that's enough for me.

GFOOCC?

I believe he's referring to the classic film Gordon Freeman's Onerous Opponents: Cranial Crabs

This argument is getting kind of tiresome, mostly because I'm obviously coming across as a lot more shrill than I mean to be. Neither format is going to blow up anytime soon IMO; both are minor niche products and if I buy either one anytime soon it will be as a fun novelty. I just think the evidence available now points to Blu-ray having a clear lead over HD-DVD, and I'm not convinced that anything on the horizon is going to produce a sudden change to the status quo. That's all.

I'm not ignoring it, it just hasn't been very important yet.

The studios only care about total sales. I agree that the PS3 isn't as good a seller of discs per unit, but there are immensely more of them, and they will probably outsell everyone's standalone players over Christmas, too. By the time they aren't the dominant player in terms of sheer numbers of units in houses, it will be next year. I would be surprised if everyone's standalone players aren't a lot cheaper by then.

IF there is a massive increase in HD-DVD player sales then sure, I agree the studios will be a lot more likely to favor HD-DVD. It's not impossible, I just don't see how a fairly small price difference is going to produce that increase when it only gave the HD-DVD standalones a small sales advantage in the past.

I guess my question is, why did the price difference only produce a 9% difference in standalone sales before, but now will produce a big enough one to overcome millions of PS3 units in existence, and maybe a million more still to be sold?

The price of entry is really a several thousand dollar HDTV along with the price of the player, so the importance of the price of the players may be overblown a little (at least now that they aren't in the thousands of dollars). And a lot of this hinges on PS3 sales, because inefficient as they are as "movie sales generators," they have sold at a vastly higher rate than any of the standalones on either side.

I agree, I don't think it will REALLY be over until those agreements expire. Then the studios will probably swing to whoever the total sales winner is. And if HD-DVD sales overtake Blu-ray for whatever reason, I think the other studios will go that way too. What I'm missing is the reason for the change in the status quo. There has always been a difference in player prices; the prices for both have been dropping all along; the price difference hasn't made a difference yet in the overall picture. Why will it now?

Sure, that goes without saying. And neither sells much, so the absolute gap isn't big. But what is going to produce this change in the status quo that favors Blu-ray? Cheaper players? Everyone's players are getting cheaper, and the mere existence of a fairly small player price gap hasn't done much for HD-DVD but give them a minor lead in standalone sales that honestly stink for both sides.

I need to see that movie again, if only for the awesome "Bad Peter" sequences.

So basically you're saying that you have no taste?

Just kidding. :P

EDIT: This topic has gotten way too serious/pissy/take your pick, and I think it was mostly my fault.

Ha! Don't worry, I'm not always shrill either. This isn't the right thread for it, but I wasn't as bothered as most people were by the films pretty obvious shortcomings. I'm not sure I can articulate why, but I had fun with pretty much the whole flick. I hated Transformers, if that returns any of my cred. Burn in hell, stupid outsourced Indian tech support scene.

Here's the biggest problem with BOTH formats. The current movie selection is extremely limited. Being totally honest, your list is lousy. The LD summed up my thoughts perfectly. More people are reading this forum than have seen, or want to see, A Scanner Darkly. And Speilberg's hands are tied with no definitive news.

I just took a looksee at the remaing 2007 and 2008 releases. Both camps have some exclusives but HD-DVD has some potentially huge films next year. Films in italics are format neutral. Films are bold are potentially HUGE releases.

Bee Movie
The Spiderwick Chronicles
Wanted
Leatherheads
Iron Man
Hulk
Hellboy 2 (I knew the first was Sony but the web says the second is Universal)
Kung Fu Panda
The Mummy: Tomb Of The Dragon Emperor
Star Trek 46 (or whatever the hell nbr they are on)

I Am Legend
10,000 B.C.
Speed Racer
Get Smart
The Dark Knight
Where The Wild Things Are
Harry Potter And The Half-blood Prince

BD has some biggies too (Caspian, Hancock, American Dog). But these HD only and dual movies above should be more than enough to keep HD rocking into 2009.

We should all be able to agree that, regardless of format, an Eggers-penned and Jonze-directed Where the Wild Things are in HD is going to be the goods.

Why are people talking about HD as being a niche thing? It was the same thing when DVD came out. In 5 years you will ONLY see HD on the shelves of Blockbuster. Both formats will co-exist and everybody owns a multiformat player.

From the HD-DVD camp. I'm a little bummed about Hellboy and Spider-Man that's about it. I saw a glimpse of Die Hard over the weekend on an HD channel (probably in 720p) and it was painful I cannot imagine 1080p taking out the grain or making the squibs \ make up less noticable. I got HD for newer releases.

As to Pixar and Disney, as a father I'm telling you right now I am not spending $30 for a movie when I can get a cheaper version for $15. Heck I still have VHS tapes for her to watch. I know lots of other parents and they all share the same sentiment, raising a kid is expensive and you save money where you can.

I think I'll just stick to HD hbo and cinemax. Need to get a HD tivo. I'm a hurt consumer now, and I'd like to pee on both Toshiba and Sony CEOs. Of course I'd use a funnel...

Well for me coming in here whining about not pulling the trigger, this deal sure changed my mind quickly.

An Xbox 360 HD-DVD player with King Kong and Heroes season 1, plus the 5 movie rebate -- 165 bucks. Since I don't care about owning the PS3 until it has at least 2 games I really want to own (probably sometime in early 2008 the way that system is going), Blu-ray isn't an option.

It just kills me that I can't walk into Best Buy tomorrow and watch the Spidey trilogy in HD tomorrow night -- KILLS ME -- but I'll definitely feel better after checking out Shaun of the Dead and Hot Fuzz back-to-back. And I'll test out the upconversion factor on maybe one of the last DVDs I'll ever buy, regular old standard-def Spider-man 3.

btw Hellboy 2 is Universal, so that will be HD-DVD exclusive.

But damn, Blu-ray gets Oldboy in a few weeks. THAT hurts.

I'll just add this--I know it's dumb, but I rented "Dragon's Lair" and played it last night on my PS3 Blu-Ray player. I actually finished the game in about 20 minutes (infinite lives) and played it using my DVD remote. Then I went to the special features and discovered that you could watch all the scenes by themselves, including the ending. Duh. One thing that was interesting is they did a retrospective on all the different versions that have been released and spliced it in with the HD version (including the Amiga, PC, CD-Rom, Laserdisc, etc.). That was kind of cool-looking--the left half of the screen was the old version, and the right side was the HD version.