Interesting little article regarding the "Wisdom of Crowds" systems in comparison to evolution may be responsible for people holding onto misguided beliefs because the concept is counter-intuitive to them.
http://karmatics.com/docs/evolution-...of-crowds.html
Continued....
http://karmatics.com/docs/evolution-...of-crowds.html
Quote:
| Does fundamentalist religion cause the rejection of evolution? or is it the other way around? Conventional wisdom says that the primary reason why so many people do not accept Darwin's theory of evolution is that they find it threatening to their religious beliefs. There is no question that religion is a big part of the reason behind the large number of people who reject evolution. But I am convinced that just as often, the cause and effect is reversed: people hold onto their fundamentalist religious beliefs because evolution by natural selection -- the strongest argument against an Old Testament-type creator -- is so counter-intuitive to so many. I arrive at this conclusion in a somewhat roundabout way. I have long been fascinated with systems that tap into the "wisdom of crowds" -- systems that, in fact, have much in common with Darwinian evolution. Such systems doubtfully conflict with anyone's religion, and yet, I see the same sort of resistance to them as I see to evolution. The arguments against them are remarkably similar. This hypothesis, if borne out, suggests that advocates of reason -- moderates, atheists, and the science minded -- might consider a different tact if they wish to convince more people to reconsider their fundamentalist, anti-scientific beliefs. It may be easier to first go after this non-intuitiveness, starting with these places where the conceptual difficulty is not exacerbated by the conflict with their comforting and culturally embedded religious belief. "Evolution-like," wisdom of crowds systems: Below I cover three separate systems, each of which has strong similarity to Darwinian evolution, each of which seems to elicit a "but it just can't work" response, and none of which conflict with any religion I know of. They are: 1. Wikipedia -- online encyclopedia that anyone can edit 2. Prediction markets -- speculative market which predicts future events, such as the outcome of elections 3. Recommendation systems -- systems which categorize and recommend content (such as movies, music and books) based purely on ratings given by others 1. Wikipedia: Most people who actually use the Wikipedia online encyclopedia on a regular basis recognize that it is an amazing resource, and is getting significantly better as time goes on. However, I have spent a lot of time debating with intelligent people who simply reject that Wikipedia can be accurate or reliable, given that it can be edited by anyone. Of course, it is true that Wikipedia has been vandalized often, that many of the entries contain poorly written sections, and that some of the facts presented are dubious. I don't suggest anyone use it to verify that the mushroom they found in their backyard is safe to eat. Nevertheless, the science journal Nature published a study in 2005 concluding that Wikipedia fairs quite well when compared to Encyclopedia Britannica in terms of accuracy. A study by IBM [pdf] in 2004 found that vandalism is usually repaired extremely quickly - so quickly that most users will never see its effects. Meanwhile, Wikipedia has 10 times the amount of content as Britannica, is growing much more rapidly, and, most importantly, is being refined and improved every minute of every day. (not to mention, it is available online for free!) Wikipedia founder Jimmy Wales described the online encyclopedia as being "like a sausage: you might like the taste of it, but you don't necessarily want to see how it's made." In a Nature magazine blog accompanying the study mentioned above, Timo Hannay said that "frankly, I still can't get over the fact that it works at all." Indeed, the problem most people have with Wikipedia's quality and accuracy seems to have more to do with their knowledge of how it is made, rather than any observed problem with the end results. There is no question that there is something unsettling about the idea of a resource that can be edited by anonymous internet users. We would expect that many, if not most, of the edits will be of poor quality. The natural assumption might that the quality of the end result will be the average quality of all the edits -- but nothing could be further from the truth. Comparing it to evolution, an edit of Wikipedia might be considered equivalent to a genetic mutation. A mutation, of course, is non-directed...that is, "random." It could be bad or good, but most of the time it is bad. If we were simply the average of all mutations that predated us, we would be nothing more than a pile of goo. And yet we are not. The reason that Wikipedia is as good as it is (and the reason that living organisms are as sophisticated as they are), is not due to the average quality of the edits (or mutations). Instead, it is due to a much harder to observe process: selection. Some edits survive, while others quickly die. While one can look at the history of a Wikipedia article and see each and every edit, it is much harder to tell how many potential editors looked at an article, subconsciously thought "I doubt I could improve this much," and chose not to try. Each of these can be considered a "selection event", and the number of such events vastly outnumbers the actual edits. Selection is the heart of what makes Wikipedia -- as well as Darwinian evolution -- work. As much as evolution impresses us with its ability to turn countless random mutations into sophistication, it isn't without its downsides. Every time we see a person or animal that suffers from a severe birth defect we see the cruelty of the process, but we also recognize that such a mutation will probably not survive more than a generation or two due to the power of selection. Likewise, when we see glitches in Wikipedia (whether due to vandalism, someone pushing an agenda, or just bad writing), we are seeing the "random" part of the process in action. Again, we generally see that selection kicks in rapidly, and the glitches disappear. This difficulty in seeing and understanding the power of selection is why, in spite of the evidence to the contrary, people will claim that Wikipedia must be a poor quality source of information. Luckily, though, the end results are there for everyone to see, and most people judging it on end results alone seem to agree that it is an excellent source of information. And unlike living things, no one can easily doubt that Wikipedia is indeed created in the way that we are told it is. |





