2008 MLB Offseason

Happy Day is correct. Santana, Martinez, Maine, Perez, El Duque/Pelfrey,
that seems like a nice, no great rotation to me

I was hoping he'd land in Boston. Makes the Cubs road much more diffacult. Maybe now Bedard and Roberst will get traded somewhere now that the market is set for trades. Seattle shouldn't give more than 3 for Bedard and if Robrts go it's 3 at best as well.

What's the word on Pedro? Is his arm gonna last this season?

All reports are that Pedro's arm feels great and he is expecting to carry his share this year.

lets do some guessing

santana 18 wins
martinez 13 wins
maine 15 wins
perez 11 wins
duque/pelfrey 12 wins

thats around 70 wins which is nice

I honestly couldn't believe it, the Mets landed Santana without dealing Fernando Martinez? As for the actual package, I'd do this deal any day of the week, and twice on Sundays.

Kevin Mulvey is a control artist with so-so stuff and never projected to be a frontline starter, and Philip Humber has been completely underwhelming. Perhaps Humber's performance was hampered by his having to rehab from elbow surgery, but he's another guy without frontline stuff. Let alone the fact that blaming a pitching prospect's poor performance on arm problems hurts his value far more than it helps.

The keys to this trade are clearly Carlos Gomez and Deolis Guerra, one of whom—Gomez—is a 21 year old who is almost major league ready, with all of the raw tools a center fielder could dream of. While the other is still 18 and projects to be a frontline starter, you know, some time during Barack's second term. Snarkiness aside, these are the two guys who could, potentially, become the Twins' Joe Mauer to the Mets' Mark Prior.

Now I hated Omar for the Milledge trade, primarily because it was a win now move from a team without a win now rotation, but after this? I can at least understand it, even if I still don't like it. And that's saying a lot for a trade I viewed as even worse than the Kazmir deal.

Ah, don't bring up the Kazmir deal, please.

Reports are one thing, but going from actual results, it's still up in the air. He says he feels great, but when he came up last season he never pitched on four days rest. Even if Pedro makes it through the full season, his innings are going to be severely limited.

TBH, I'm expecting 140-160 innings out of Pedro, entirely due to him becoming a six inning pitcher who takes that extra day more often than not. But enough harping on the negative, how about this potential "problem" facing the Mets in 2008:

Who's the Mets' opening day starter, Johan Santana or Pedro Martinez?

I think they'll be starting Santana. Let's be real here, Pedro is still a very good pitcher, but his prime is likely behind him.

Oh, clearly it'll be Santana, but the idea that the Mets get to choose between the two? That's just all sorts of awesome.

I seriously hope that David Wright & Jose Reyes have a terrible infield collision and they both break their backs..... and I like both of them a lot.

Shitty day to be a Twins fan.

FWIW, Baseball Prospectus has their early PECOTA projections out. I haven't gone over most teams, but I know that the Cubs and Brewers project to be in a dogfight again.

When do the project Wood and Sheets to get hurt? Early May for Wood, June 5th for Sheets are my guesses.

Cubs will win by 5 games.

ESPN is saying Bedard to Seattle is close again. Not sure I believe it. If so then Roberts has to go next.

I think the Central is the Cubs to dominate. The Brewers didn't really get any better this offseason. Gagne's not anything special anymore, and while the Cub have their own injury prone pitcher, he's not their number one starter.

Of course, they're going to have a hard time beating the Mets or D-Backs in the playoffs, but they should roll to that point, at least. And for fuck's sake someone tell Hendry to quit drooling over prospects. The Cubs have the players to have made a number of huge moves this offseason, but yet again have fallen in love with their farm system.

The Brewers got a lot better defensively. Unless you followed them every day, you really don't realize what a disaster Braun was at third. Plus they're adding a full year of Yovanni Gallardo, a full season of Braun's bat, and the team, which led the NL in HRs around a core of 23 to 25 year olds, should naturally improve. I don't think people quite appreciate just how young the Brewers are. A breakout season from Rickie Weeks is all that's needed for the Brewers to be an elite offensive team in the NL.

I'd agree that the Brewers are worse at closer, although I think people are placing too much emphasis on Gagne's struggles with Boston and completely ignoring that he was effective with Texas. They're probably deeper overall in the bullpen though. A full year of Riske should add a lot of stability to middle relief and there are enough other options that they should be able to find an effective enough group.

There really was zero reason for a young improving team like the Brewers to make any major moves. And the moves they made addressed their biggest glaring problems of 2007, a suspect defense and bad middle relief. The fact that they did that without having to trade prospects, and even netted them extra draft picks, leaves them in good position for midseason moves.

Zero reason to make your team better? Lots of young and improving teams have fallen down the crapper resting on the idea that everyone is just going to keep getting better every day.

And the reason people focus on Gagne's stint in Boston is because he was just terrible.

The Brewers improved what they needed to, but I still think it will be down to the wire between them and the Cubs.

It's easier to pitch when you aren't playing for anything like Texas.
Except the Cubs also got better. Hill got more experience, they just might have a catcher who can hit, and a Japanese import in LF that should be a vast improvement from Jones/Floyd.

And Roberts can still be traded to the Cubs. And I'm all for trading away youngsters for him. Just not Hill and Pie because they are Opening Day starters. Be different if the Cubs had a back up plan for CF. But Gallagher, Marshall, Patterson, Vickers-Take 2 and a lower tier player.

Several days after the Bedard trade news initially broke, we are still waiting for Angelos to untwist his panties. Which means that trade will get done approximately four days after never.


Which, of course, given my luck, is the cue for the spiteful universe to announce the finalized trade a few minutes from now.

Fuck Brian Roberts. They should have traded Hill, Gallagher and some other OF prospect (Pie) for Bedard. Then they could compete with the Mets and D-Backs.

And Hill's experience? Rich Hill will be 28 years old when the season starts and had already played two years in the majors prior to last year. How much more experience does he need before he can pitch past the 6th inning?

The Cub are definitely good, but they didn't make the moves they should have made that would have put them over the top. You're the first guy I've seen that's actually made a point of saying that Pie shouldn't be traded. Lots of people soured on him quickly.

Do we need to trot out the dictionary to define the difference between "no major moves" and "no moves"? Mike Cameron with the ensuing defensive changes, Jason Kendall, and a revamped bullpen isn't exactly standing pat.

The Brewers defense will be improved next year through their moves this offseason. And that will probably have a cascade effect as it will allow starters to work deeper into games.

And, yeah they're gambling on Gagne as a replacement for Cordero to an extent. Still, it's not like Cordero didn't blow any games last year. Heck, the difference in the season might be a three run homer given up by Cordero to Aramis Ramirez. But, the Brewers also managed to blow games in the 6th, 7th, and 8th and they've shored up that area of the bullpen fine.

They're not a lock to overtake the Cubs. But, it's not like the Cubs don't have any questions. Theriot gets a lot of praise for a guy that's likely to post a sub-.700 OPS without a great OBP. Marquis and Dempster aren't exactly guys that you can just pencil into the rotation and forget about either. Personally, I think the Cubs are better off standing pat and keeping their pitching depth than in pursuing Brian Roberts.

And it's not like the rest of the NL got a whole lot better while the Cubs and Brewers stood still. Both might have improved enough that the Wild Card will be in play as well. And, as I said, the early projections for both teams indicates they should be legitimate contenders.

Jason Kendall? You need to check some stats before you look on that as an improvement. His only value is as a hitter, and he's a pretty shitty hitter now. He can't catch for shit, and unfortunately, catcher is a pretty important position to be good defensively.

There were horses to be had this year. The Brewers and the Cub both have the prospects to play, but they chose not to. At least the Cub made some free agent noise of value. And, oh yeah, they beat the Brewers last year. If you're trying to overtake a team that you couldn't beat the year before, don't you think you should make more than touch-ups?

There were some big moves made by teams that contended last year. They made themselves better. The Brewers are hoping to overtake all those teams by adding Mike Cameron and Jason Kendall? Come on, man. I like the Brewers, but standing pat has rarely proved to be the right move.

Also, there is no dictionary listing for "no major moves" OR "no moves". Dictionaries give definitions of words, not random collections of them.

Words have meaning and definitions, especially when they're grouped together. "Major" had a meaning when applied to that word group that was conveniently ignored.

Brewers leftfielders combined for a .261/.318/.453 (BA/OBP/SLG). Mike Cameron is a solid improvement offensively if he just hits his road numbers last year. I've seen the defensive improvement cited from the moves projected at being worth between 1.5 to 4 wins. Cameron is a great signing because he fixes the Brewers biggest weakness. At worst, the Brewers stand still with him. At best, they could be 6 games better. He's not a star, but his skill set fits right in with what the Brewers needed.

The analysis indicates that Braun was historically bad at 3B. Like, one of the 5 worst in the last 100 years bad. Moving him off of third was a necessary move, even if it wasn't major or sexy.

I listed Kendall just for completeness sake. But, at least he's likely to post an OBP greater than .300 and not be a distraction in the clubhouse, unlike Estrada. And be fast enough that you can actually bunt him over to second base. And who won't be a double play machine. And Estrada had a pretty crummy year defensively as well. Estrada ended up offensively with a sub-.700 OPS, was injured and had to be replaced by an on his last legs Damien Miller in September, and posted a .296 OBP. The bar is set low. Kendall's an adequate replacement for Estrada and might even be a minor improvement. It's not like there were lots of catchers out there to be had.

And, the Brewers still have all their prospects. If things don't work out they can make moves during the regular season. The Astros better hope that their pitching is a lot better than it looks, because they're pretty much stuck with the team they have once the season starts.

And, as I said, statistical analysis is on the Brewers side. They're not locks, but they should be in contention into September. And I can only feel comfortable saying that about two of the teams in the NL Central.

The Astros aren't contenders. There are two solid teams in the Central and then a load of crap.

Cameron is going to play left? He's a decent guy for center, but I just think you need stronger offensive numbers to play on the corners. Yeah, he's going to hit for average power, especially in Miller Park, but he's a career .250 guy. That's not last year playing in SD fucking him up (though theoretically, shouldn't one's average be higher in a cavernous park, even if the power numbers are down?), that's what he's done over time. Acceptable for a plus defensive center, but not so much for a LF.

Here's something I just learned...Mike Cameron is 35 years old. Time really flies, huh? Of course, that's not a good thing. Expecting more than his career average on offense is a stretch.

But, hey, maybe he becomes Willie Mays in Miller Park.

Jason Kendall is an inprovement if you had what the Cubs had at catcher last year pre Soto, ofensively anyway. He can't throw out guys for shit. A walk will turn into a double with him behind the plate. Have fun in the late innings of close games with him.

He can't hit for power, he doesn't hit for average anymore, he can't throw people out and he doesn't call a good game. But every once in a while, he'll bunt for a single, and that's what you're looking for out of your catcher!

Cameron is the Brewers centerfielder (with Hall moving to 3B and Braun to LF). But, offensively, he replaces Jenkins/Mench (the 2007 LFers) in the Brewers lineup.

Brewers leftfielders hit .261/.318/.453 in 2007.
Cameron hit .254/.341/.449 outside of PETCO in 2007. Cameron only needs to match his 2007 road numbers to be a slight offensive upgrade for the Brewers.

BTW, Kendall sucks. Agreed. Johnny Estrada sucks too. The Brewers are dangling Bush and Vargas out there for trade and they really ought to be targetting a catcher with some upside. That said, when catcher is your only position player that's questionable, you're generally in good shape. And that's where the Brewers are. Not favorites, but a solid team that should be in contention and still has 90+ win upside if things go right. Like the Mets, Phillies, Cubs, D'Backs, Rockies, Dodgers, and maybe the Padres, Braves, and Reds.

Are you guys really all that confident in the Cubs? The Brewers had to collapse, a collapse that was predominately due to their pitching staff faltering, for the Cubs to take the division. So to call signing David Riske, Mike Cameron and moving Ryan Braun off of third minor is a bit of a stretch, as they all directly address the Brewers needs.

Let alone the fact that having both Braun and Gallardo for the full season is a significant ugprade.

As for whether or not the Brewers or the Cubs should've gone out and made a big acquisition, I just don't know. While the Cubs are a large market team, you can't really say the same for the Brewers, and dealing multiple cost controlled players (especially positional players), for frontline starters, isn't always a no-brainer.

So is Braun not going to be awful in left field?

A couple points. First, I know the Brewers aren't going to pay for anyone, but that doesn't mean they shouldn't. If you want to take the next step, you've gotta pay. I mean, are they just going to collapse when all of their young players become free-agents? I know that's years away, but since you have so many young guys who still have 3-4 years till free agency, use the money you're saving now to pay for someone like Bedard to put you over the top. If you play as your saying, the best you can ever hope for out of your team in the modern era of baseball is 2-3 good seasons before you lose out on your best players. You have to pony up sometime.

And yeah, the moves are minor. You're only adding Cameron offensively, who as was shown in the stats is barely an upgrade from the guys they had. Then you move an awful fielding 3b away from there and put him in LF where he'll probably still be pretty bad. You're still gaining a bit in that due to the importance of 3rd, but you are losing something in left.

Braun wasn't exactly a September call-up. Guy had 450 ABs. Yeah, he's going to be better with 600, but let's not pretend we only saw a flash of him.

Add into this fact that you're also relying on players with long histories of being constantly injured (Weeks, Sheets) and you're playing it pretty easy for a team that really only needs that one big guy to play for the NL title.

As for the Cub, they lost a lot of games early because of Pinnella playing around with the lineup to see what kind of players he had.

The downside for them is that they also didn't get one of the big pitchers out there. Who thinks Marquis is going to pitch as well as he did last year? And they didn't do much to improve the whole closer situation.

Still, they had the 2nd best ERA in all of the NL last year. By the wisdom used in this thread, just standing pat should make them one of the best staffs in in the league again. And if Fukudome is close to being as good as people think, they're going to score a shitload of runs.

There are reasons to think that Braun will be at least average in leftfield. For one, he's athletic and runs well. And he has a strong arm. His footwork and arm accuracy were a mess at 3B, but those really aren't critical issues for a leftfielder. I'm a bit worried about his breaks and reads, but not in his ability to actually catch the ball and cutoff balls in the gaps.

And, it's probably worth noting that the defensive bar in leftfield is very low. Carlos Lee, Adam Dunn, and Chris Duncan are all in the NL Central. Braun may already be above average in the NL Central.

Arm accuracy is a fairly big deal for a LF. A strong arm doesn't matter if you're missing the base by 10 feet, and the increased distance in throws makes inaccuracy that much more noticeable. It helps that he's not going to be making a whole lot of throws during any particular game, though.

The "wisdom" in this thread notes that the Brewers are built around a core of players who were between 23 and 25 last year. Who still have years of improvement until they reach their peak. Weeks, Fielder, Braun, Hart, Hardy, Gallardo, Parra, and Villanueva are all less than 27. Bush, Capuano (who should have at least some bounce back), Sheets, Hall, and Gross are all less than 30. Gallardo, Parra, and Braun haven't even played a full season yet. While it may vary from individual to individual, improvement as a group is to be expected.

I expect the Cubs will have a very good pitching staff next year. I'd expect Lilly to be worse, balanced by Zambrano being better, and Rich Hill to progress. Marquis will probably be worse, I expect that his 5.2 RA last year is more representative of his pitching than his ERA, but they have options to plug in. Throwing away a bunch of pitching depth for an offensive upgrade is the one thing they really need to avoid, because there are questions after the top 3. It should be noted that the defensive improvement of Aramis Ramirez has really helped the team. I expect that the improvement from Barrett/Kendall to Soto will be very large and probably more significant than the signing of Fukudome.

I'd agree that both the Cubs and Brewers should probably have made a run at someone like Bedard, but neither one were willing to part with an Adam Jones type prospect. There is something to be said about waiting to assess your needs though, as Houston Street, Chad Cordero, and Joe Nathan might be available at the deadline if closers are needed and there will be some starting pitchers available too.

It's not like the NL is full of loaded teams. Even with Santana, the Mets have some warts and question marks. Arizona was outscored last year and will likely need to do better this year. Colorado has a way of wearing out pitchers. Etc.

It's near impossible to track how well a young team will grow. When you have an older team, you can trust in certain consistencies. That makes an older team (not an 'old' team) easier to predict. The standing pat rational actually works better for the Cub than it does the Brewers because they have a better idea of what to expect.

I think the type of throws a leftfielder makes plays into it too. A third baseman is expected to make offbalance throws on bunts and pop up after a diving stop behind third (not that Braun had many of them). It's much easier to get squared up on the plays a leftfielder is expected to make as well. The fact that Braun has a strong arm will probably discourage teams from testing him too.

He was a disaster at third. Even if he's only below average in LF that still represents a massive improvement.

Teams aren't going to be afraid of testing him if he airmails everything.

I'm not saying it's not the right move, I'm just saying you're making a really big deal out of Mike Cameron allowing Bill Hall to play third.

But good luck to 'em. Here's hoping they win the Central.

That's a myth. There are thousands of pages of statistical analysis to back it up. Yeah, it's tough to predict individuals, but as a group, young players get better, players in their prime stay about the same, and old players get worse. Injuries are, of course, the wild card. But, I'll take the odds on Fielder and Braun sustaining or improving over the odds on Delgado and Alou, for example.

It's worth pointing out, that the Cubs aren't particularly old. At least in the starting rotation. Depending on how it sorts out, there's really not that much difference in age with Zambrano, Hill, Marquis, Marshall, Gallagher, etc. under 30.

And, again, the Brewers didn't stand pat. They improved their defense. A lot. And added depth to their bullpen. Yeah, adding a plus starting pitcher would have been nice, but they cost an arm and a leg this offseason. How many teams addressed every single one of their offseason needs?

Sure they'll test him, but within limits. The cost of being thrown out stretching a base is pretty high, there aren't that many chances, and you're only going to do it if you have a good runner in the first place. Unlike guys with rag arms like Luis Gonzalez or Juan Pierre, you have to expect that Braun will make some(most?) throws.

Not all young players get better. There are thousands of pages of statistical analysis to back that up. Sometimes they have a bad second year, and then come back again. Sometimes they fall off of the map.

But if you are really trying to say that, then Hill, Gallagher, Theriot and Fontenot are all going to get better for the Cub. And they have better full-time players in their prime who you can rely on.

Why? I mean, don't get me wrong, I LOVE homerism, but why do you have to expect that someone who's notoriously inaccurate at third will suddenly find accuracy and make most of the throws? What are you basing it on other than a longing fan's hopes?

Sammy Sosa had a great arm, but it was often a great move to run on him because a) he wasn't very accurate a lot of the time and b) his inaccuracies and his stupidity lead to players on base taking an extra base.

Who ever said all young players get better? Only as a group they tend to get better. Individuals vary.

I don't expect Theriot to get any better. He's already 28. With no power. Fontenot turns 28 in June too. They're as good as they're likely to be, which is not very.

Hill? Sure. At the very least we should expect more innings than the 195 he put up in his first full season. 220+ innings of 4-ish ERA is better than 195 innings of 4-ish ERA. Barring injury, he'll likely be better.

Gallagher? He's 21 and has pitched all of 14.6 innings. He'll get better. Maybe he won't be ready in 2008, but barring injury he'll get better.

Marmol won't be better, but a 1.43 ERA is an outlier anyways and probably doesn't represent his true level.

Sean Marshall shaved nearly 2 runs off his ERA. He'll likely regress a little ERA-wise, but he certainly could contribute a lot more innings. And that's a likely improvement.

Marquis is clearly bouncing around his true level, which is likely somewhere between 2006 and 2007.

Matt Murton probably would improve with more playing time and filling out his body to add some power.

Cubs guys - won't get better enough to matter.

Brewers guys - will only grow to greater and greater heights.

I mean, are you saying last year doesn't represent Braun's offense like you're dismissing Carlos Marmol's ERA? Will Braun get better and not Marmol? And if not, why?

Because enormously inaccurate at third still means making over 90% of your throws. Braun sported an .895 Fielding % after all with throws a lot harder than your average left fielder has to make. As bad as he was, I still expect he'd be a lot better than what you'd see out of Carlos Lee, Adam Dunn, and Chris Duncan at third base. That would be a real comedy of errors.

Braun probably has plus arm strength for left field and the footwork isn't complicated. (And that's the root of Braun's throwing problems, awful footwork that left him in a bad position to throw. It's not like he has a funky joint in his shoulder/arm.) Really, we'll probably know by the middle of spring training if it's going to be a problem or not. And with his natural athletic talents, there's a lot of reason to expect he'll make the adjustment to the athletic portions of the job. The mental skills will likely need more work though.

Bad/mediocre 27/28 year olds not getting better =/= good 23-25 year olds won't get better. I've been very specific about it when I said groups and on a whole improve while individuals vary.

Who said that Braun would get better? I doubt he'll mash lefties like he did in 2007. But, considering his extra playing time, he can fall down about .050 points of OPS and still be more valuable than he was in 2007. More if you include defense.

Heck, I think Hardy will have a hard time matching his 2007 totals. OTOH, Weeks struggled with injuries much of the year and it was only in the last two months of the season that he was healthy and an offensive force. Hart showed steady improvement. Fielder was only 23 and he can improve his OBP skills, and likely will as I doubt teams will challenge him. Bill Hall had a much worse year than 2005 and 2006 and probably will bounce back. Yovanni Gallardo has a total of around 110 innings. If he only increases that to 180 or so, he'll improve his value tremendously even if his ERA rises some. Parra has less than 30 IP and he also can improve his value tremendously.

How much better is Marmol, who sported a 1.43 ERA, supposed to be? His peripherals support him being very good, but not that good (his BB rate is kind of high).

I already said that I expect Hill, Marshall, Murton, and Gallagher (when he's ready) to improve in value. And Zambrano to improve. And Soto to be an enormous improvement at catcher.

Where are you getting that I said none of the good young Cubs would improve? As a group, I expect them to improve. I even pointed out that the Cubs weren't particularly old, particularly in the rotation. I just don't count Theriot and Fontenot as good or young. Heck, I agree that the Cubs would be foolish to trade Pie, unless they get someone really valuable back.

Bottom line-Neither team is strong enough, as of now, to go deep into the playoffs. Cubs need another starter and bat. Brewers need alot better pitching.

I think you're asking the wrong question here, what he's saying is they'll both be more valuable next season, but solely due to increases in playing time, since they'll both lose some in their rate stats as their workloads increase. For instance, I don't think the Yankees are expecting Joba Chamberlain to throw 180 innings of 0.38 ERA ball, but that doesn't matter, because, well, his ERA would have to spike pretty fucking high to make what we all expect to be a significant increase in innings pitched less valuable than that ERA in only 24 innings.

As for what to expect out of young players, their careers usually curve upwards until 27 or so, where they plateau for a few years before beginning their inevitable decline.