No recession?

We're 1/2 way into a recession.
Now, considering we had such a huge drop off from the previous quarter to this quarter, there is a possibility that we can avoid a recession simply by having ever so slight growth (Helloooooooooooooo stimulus package). It's not fixing the problems, it's just yo-yoing the labeling.

Recessions are an integral part of the business cycle. If an economy didn't go through periods of re-adjustment, hyper-inflation would run rampant. An economic recession is healthy and should not be feared.

There are fundamental problems with our economy. There is a serious lack of confidence in our credit markets that go far beyond the housing crisis. Over the past 60-70 years, the nature of our economy has shifted significantly and the regulations put in place to insure stability are woefully inadequate. The era of hack and slash deregulation is over. And until they are fixed, we will continue to see long term problems in our economy.

Yatta!

Growth

That Koletsky fellow is probably stoked right about now. On a side note, they're releasing T-Bills again.

Buy Buy Buy
(in Cramer's* mad money voice)

*I actually don't watch that show but a buddy of mine has a wav of him saying "buy buy buy" he plays just before making stock purchases each day... it's great.

That's because the bottom still hasn't fallen out yet...it's the calm before the storm still.

Guys, we may not be in an official recession (defined as two consecutive quarters of declining growth), but we are in hard times. Of course, when your "core inflation" index excludes such luxuries as fuel and food, I can understand how pundits can deny we are in real trouble.

Last January I went to visit a friend of mine who had bought a house in Northern California. His house was one of 15 in his court. When I pulled into his driveway I had counted 12 out of the 15 houses with "for Sale" or "for Rent" signs. This was in January 2007! Not one house sold in the year since. The Bay Area has seen a 200% increase in foreclosure proceedings. Where are these people going? If they can’t pay their mortgage, how are they going to drive that consumer economy that we now depend on.

Prices for food and gas have been increasing steadily since last spring as well.

The problem with Koletsky's argument is that yes, prices are declining, but no one is buying. And those who want to buy can't get credit on favorable terms.

Pop Zeus has it right in his post; The real problem is there is a fundamental lack of trust in the system. On a micro level this means home owners walking out of their homes and telling the banks to fuck off. On the macro level, foreign banks are afraid to do any transactions with Cit et al because they do not feel confident that those banks will be around or meet their obligations.

This is a real mess.

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/080529/economy.html?.v=21

And thanks to the stimulus package... expect the official recession to hit us after the next President is sworn in.

Agreed. Technically the economy is limping along and doesn't fall into the "official" definition of a recession. But the price of oil and food is a legitimate sign that things are crappy, recession or not.

The housing madness in some states NEEDED a correction. The prices of homes in Las Vegas, California, South Florida, etc. was beyond ridiculous. Yes this sucks for the owners but long-term this is a necessary correction.

Revolution!

Wait for the ARM's to reset, more oil producing countries drop the dollar/oil peg (Iran, Russia, Venezuela and others have already done it, Iraq tried and we all know that didnt go to good), Asian countries send back their tons of dollars, we'll have hyperinflation like Germany did and like Zimbabwe has now. Recession would be a dream we all want to go back to if all that happens and it very well looks like it will within 3-4 years.

The government is trying HARD to hide all this by propping up the stock market and reporting phony numbers.

The more you delay the worse it will be. Do any of you really think the US government can be in $9Trillion debt and face $60 TRILLION in futures obligations (social security, medicare etc) and stay afloat? If the US was a business it would be a rusty old building long ago closed.

It sucks, Im 25 and just starting to plan for the future (moving out and what not) and with all this going on. The next 10 years look like they will be the worst in our history.....hell maybe even world history since the US has such an impact on the world.



.

You honestly think the next 10 years will be worst in our history? Are you mad or just ignorant?

What can it not be both ?

Gee, I never would have guessed.

Give me something to make me retract that. Give me a sign of hope. Can you?

I said the next 10 LOOK like I didnt say the next 10 WILL BE THE WORST.

Well, let's see...I would think that the Civil War and Great Depression could be tough to beat. But that's just me.

While I totally agree that the economy has some serious problems, our global economic system makes it much, much harder for the entire system to crash into mass chaos. While you may dislike what the Fed does, they have learned quite a bit from the two prior stock market crashes. The economic system (not counting the Third World) in place today across the globe is quite an impressive machination. While it is not perfect (and I'm not here to argue the rich vs. poor discussion) it reacts well to gains and losses and you'd be amazed at how it adapts and reacts. That doesn't mean the US of A will not get hurt, it does mean it won't crash and burn.

And Sidiuos, all that gold Ron Paul had you horde should have made you rich enough to become our next overlord anyway, right? Sorry buddy, couldn't resist.

Ben Bernanke admitted the Fed CAUSED the Great Depression.

Also how much longer will countries continue to take a devalued dollar? They have to peg their currancy to ours and they are tired of it since its causing inflation in their own countries. Once they are under enough stress they will dump the dollar...thats the doomsday scenario.

You people never get tired of the Ron Paul stuff, I will say that he was the only guy that had the balls to talk about the economic problems before anyone else even knew it was around the corner. The other candidates laughed at him and they said the economy is "rebust". As for the gold, I bought at $600 and silver at $11. Gold went to $1030 and is now around $900 and silver went to $21 (which is when I sold) and is now around $17.

Agreed, this recession is just another correction to fix the housing and credit bubbles that grew too big and speculative, just like the internet tech bubble at the end of Clinton's terms.

Everyone moans at the time about how it is the end of the American Economy, but we just bounce back.

I remember my teachers telling me when I graduated high school in '90 that my generation was screwed economically, but then the boom times of the Information Age hit.

Recession hysteria always seems to get worse during an presidential election year.

That's what great about America, we even know how to make money off of bad news.

The Housing market is not a correction. It isn't even close to be corrected yet. There aren't the jobs anymore that pay enough money for anyone to buy 200 grand starter homes.

There is no perfect level of correction. Sellers will always want it higher and buyers will always want it lower. Prices are now dropping because they were artifically high due to bad loan offers and house flippers acting like stock speculators.

I think you are being unreasonably pessimistic about American's ability to purchase homes in the future. Home ownership has never been higher in the US over the last 100 years according to the US Census Bureau. I think historical trends disagree with you.

3/16/08

I put all my money in adamantium. Beat that!

I got some adamantium for sale, PM for price.