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Predictions for November 4th?

post #1 of 7
6/18/08 at 4:43am
Thread Starter 
Dear Politics Chewers,

Does anybody here want to predict the states that will go for Obama and McCain in November?

Here are mine...

Quote:
Originally Posted by Rourkefan View Post
Every state that is North East of Pennsylvania (including New Hampshire) will go to Obama.

McCain will not win a single Kerry state. Michigan and Wisconsin will bring it for Obama.

Obama will not win any formerly confederate state (Va, Florida, and North Carolina will go to McCain)

The map will be the same from 2004 except with Obama winning by getting Ohio and New Mexico.
Edit: Obama will get 50.4 percent of the popular vote.
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post #2 of 7
6/18/08 at 9:21am
There's a fucking presidential thread that 200 pages long that you painfully missed since it's sticky thread, so here's my prediction for November 4th: Go fuck yourself.
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post #3 of 7
6/18/08 at 4:52pm
Thread Starter 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Martin Savage View Post
There's a fucking presidential thread that 200 pages long that you painfully missed since it's sticky thread, so here's my prediction for November 4th: Go fuck yourself.

Wow I never been flamed on this board before. Interesting...

Look Bruce Banner, I was just making a thread that people could look back to on November 5th and see if their predictions were right. No need to get hostile.

Besides, that thread will be 50 pages long by November. Thats hard to navigate.
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post #4 of 7
6/18/08 at 5:05pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by Rourkefan View Post
Besides, that thread will be 50 pages long by November. Thats hard to navigate.
Right, let's cater to the people who are too fucking lazy to contribute to an ongoing in-depth discussion. Great idea, Rourkefan.
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post #5 of 7
6/18/08 at 5:10pm
That thread is already 121 pages long. Add another 50 pages and it *might* be a little difficult finding posts. Or you could just the nifty search function to narrow the thread down a little.

Worth flaming someone over? Not really.
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post #6 of 7
6/18/08 at 5:17pm
Thread Starter 
If this thing violates the forum rules then I will apologize.

Anybody disagree with my prediction that all the states will be the same except with New Mexico and Ohio going to Obama?
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post #7 of 7
6/18/08 at 7:27pm
Predicting this race so far from the date is tough to do, but I can do my best.

I think one of two things will happen.

1. Obama wins in a major blowout: He takes New Mexico, Colorado, Virginia, Michigan, and Ohio. McCain grabs New Hampshire and Florida. (No matter what people say, I don't see how McCain could win my state of Pennsylvania.)

2. Obama wins the popular vote barely over McCain, but loses in the Electoral College due to Obama's 50 State Strategy.

The one issue I have with Obama's 50 State Strategy is that there is a good possibility he may do well in every state, but not clear the required amount to win certain states.

For example, Obama plans on campaigning in states where he won caucuses. In the case of Montana, he may win more votes than any Democrat ever in that state, but he would barely lose overall to McCain. Instead of selecting states to win big like Missouri and Michigan, he could very well split his resources and lose the election.

If I was in Obama's campaign, I would focus on Pennsylvania, Michigan, Missouri, Colorado, New Mexico, and Nevada. While he may have won caucuses in states like Montana, North Dakota, and Idaho, he has little chances to winning these states in the General.


Out of the two, I am personally hoping for No. 2 as I am not an Obama supporter, but I believe that No. 1 is much more likely to happen.
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