Quote:
Originally Posted by JonStrickland 
I don't think so history shows us that governments have an infinite capacity for conspiracy. Most conspiracy theories rely heavily upon the assumption that a large group of people are capable of keeping their traps shut. That's not very realistic. That's not to say people don't try and do underhanded, secret dealings. I just don't think they get away with it all that often. I believe that more often that not, what some people think of as conspiracy is really just a series of poor decisions that, in hindsight, look like a plot.
I just think it's a slippery slope to label something as a conspiracy. It ascribes motivations that may never have been present, and it also leads down the path to ideas like secret governments and new world orders. I just don't think the world is nearly as organized as conspiracy theories would lead us to believe.
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A successful conspiracy depends on the majority of people believing it is
impossible when it is merely highly unlikely. The crazier I sound trying to explain it, and the less likely it all seems, the greater the odds of success. Which sounds crazy. Which is the point. It doesn't matter if people keep their mouths shut or not if nobody believes what they're saying, because people with more perceived credibility than them will dismiss it as crazy, and everyone else will believe them, because perceived credibility is on their side. I'll stop because this is, necessarily, an infinite loop of a paragraph. As is the nature of such things.
Most conspiracy theories are bullshit, but not all, and telling the difference is all but impossible if the conspiracy was worth a damn in the first place. If your conspiracy can be proven then
you fucked up. If it can easily even be taken seriously, then
you fucked up. If I sound totally crazy trying to explain what you actually did,
you win.
It is advantageous, usually but not always, that as few people as possible understand the larger goal. The left hand best not know what the right hand is doing. Better still if it would never even approve of what that right hand was doing.
The only logical, concrete thing I can say is that you should never mix up the highly unlikely and the impossible. That's where conspiracy thrives, the realm of the highly unlikely. But technically possible. Or maybe it doesn't. That's the sick beauty of it.
I wish I was writer enough to phrase the above more effectively, but I'm not. I did take pains not to mention that event I obviously didn't mention, because it's not particularly germane to the discussion of the nature of
conspiracy itself, and causes people to bring counter-productive pre-conceptions to the table.