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Hurricane Gustov

post #1 of 32
8/31/08 at 12:22am
Thread Starter 
New Orleans orders mandatory evacuation

Quote:
Spooked by predictions that Hurricane Gustav could grow into a Category 5 monster, an estimated 1 million people fled the Gulf Coast Saturday - even before the official order came for New Orleans residents to get out of the way of a storm taking dead aim at Louisiana.

Mayor Ray Nagin gave the mandatory order late Saturday, but all day residents took to buses, trains, planes and cars - clogging roadways leading away from New Orleans, still reeling three years after Hurricane Katrina flooded 80 percent of the city and killed about 1,600 across the region.

The evacuation of New Orleans becomes mandatory at 8 a.m. Sunday along the vulnerable west bank of the Mississippi River, and at noon on the east bank. Nagin called Gustav the "mother of all storms" and told residents to "get out of town. This is not the one to play with."

"This is the real deal, this is not a test," Nagin said as he issued the order, warning residents that staying would be "one of the biggest mistakes you could make in your life." He emphasized that the city will not offer emergency services to anyone who chooses to stay behind.

Nagin did not immediately order a curfew, which would allow officials to arrest residents if they are not on their property.
The first real major threat to New Orleans post Katrina. I imagine everything and everyone will be under a giant microscope and there will be little room for error.


Track as of 11 PM (EST) Saturday
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post #2 of 32
8/31/08 at 12:52am
It's especially interesting because all the same players are still in place. Let's really hope they all learned their lesson from last time.
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post #3 of 32
8/31/08 at 12:57am
Quote:
Originally Posted by dynamotv View Post
It's especially interesting because all the same players are still in place. Let's really hope they all learned their lesson from last time.
Bobby Jindal wasn't governor during Katrina.
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post #4 of 32
8/31/08 at 1:24am
Wonder how much brush Bush needs to clear out in Crawford this week.
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post #5 of 32
8/31/08 at 2:08am
I'm glad that they're taking the necessary precautions and just getting the fuck out because they know they can't rely on this administration, especially since they're attention is on the RNC. I don't care who ends up looking good as long as people are safe. I just feel horrible for those who spent the last three years trying to rebuild and now face the possibility of it being all torn down again.
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post #6 of 32
8/31/08 at 4:22am
Yeah, a good friend of mine boarded up his store and headed north for the weekend. I hope all is well when he gets back.
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post #7 of 32
8/31/08 at 4:49am
Let's hope this thing goes down to a categorie 3 before landfall. I hate to turn this political, but it is the politics forum!...

Could this act of god actually WIN the election for McCain?

Think about it.

It was Katrina that REALLY started George W Bush's downward spiral in the polls (Iraq in 2005-2007 made it go down further).
If Bush does a semi decent job in handling Gustov, than his poll numbers might go up to 40-50 percent by election day.

That might be just enough for McCain to sneak a win in November. Plus Gustov will take McCain's stupid VP choice of Palin off the news channels when the storm hits land on Monday.
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post #8 of 32
8/31/08 at 5:13am
Quote:
Originally Posted by Rourkefan View Post
Let's hope this thing goes down to a categorie 3 before landfall. I hate to turn this political, but it is the politics forum!...

Could this act of god actually WIN the election for McCain?

Think about it.

It was Katrina that REALLY started George W Bush's downward spiral in the polls (Iraq in 2005-2007 made it go down further).
If Bush does a semi decent job in handling Gustov, than his poll numbers might go up to 40-50 percent by election day.

That might be just enough for McCain to sneak a win in November. Plus Gustov will take McCain's stupid VP choice of Palin off the news channels when the storm hits land on Monday.
Well McCain is supposedly going to accept the nomination via satellite at a disaster zone to show sensitivity. I'm not making this up.
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post #9 of 32
8/31/08 at 9:26am
It's Gustav!
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post #10 of 32
8/31/08 at 10:31am
Thread Starter 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Rourkefan View Post
Let's hope this thing goes down to a categorie 3 before landfall. I hate to turn this political, but it is the politics forum!...

Could this act of god actually WIN the election for McCain?

Think about it.

It was Katrina that REALLY started George W Bush's downward spiral in the polls (Iraq in 2005-2007 made it go down further).
If Bush does a semi decent job in handling Gustov, than his poll numbers might go up to 40-50 percent by election day.

That might be just enough for McCain to sneak a win in November. Plus Gustov will take McCain's stupid VP choice of Palin off the news channels when the storm hits land on Monday.
So, Obama wouldn't use this if there were problems? I seem to remember one of the themes from the Democrats in 2006 was Katrina.

edit --

McCain really can't take advantage of this aside from showing he is on the scene.. Unless he flies an attack plane into the eye of the hurricaine with Palin shooting and killing it while screaming "smile you son of a bitc!!!!!!!!!" I don't see this playing out too well for the Republicans. It hightlights Katrina in everyones mind. It potentially highlights the notion of Global Warming and it Highlights how youthful Obama is because he'll go down there sandbagging any flooded areas.
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post #11 of 32
8/31/08 at 1:38pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by Snaieke View Post
McCain really can't take advantage of this aside from showing he is on the scene.. Unless he flies an attack plane into the eye of the hurricaine with Palin shooting and killing it while screaming "smile you son of a bitc!!!!!!!!!" I don't see this playing out too well for the Republicans. It hightlights Katrina in everyones mind. It potentially highlights the notion of Global Warming and it Highlights how youthful Obama is because he'll go down there sandbagging any flooded areas.
This is what I've thought since the news alert concerning Plain & McCain heading for the scene and "being briefed behind closed doors". Briefed...behind closed doors? This isn't Overlord. Like Snaieke points out, just what can the dynamic duo do aside from show concern. I doubt either of them has any relevant experience with localized crisis management. I, for one, resent strongly this seemingly opportunistic attempt at appearing qualified for command of the nation, regardless of who the politician specifically is.

And naturally, Gustav, as a truly dangerous problem, has made last weeks national pandemonium of hyperbole and headless chickenry over Fay look positively ludicrous. This is the shit that convinces me that this nation is nowhere near prepared, functionally or psychologically, for a real catastrophe. One in which a few thousand people would be dead in the first few hours. Where help was not one neighborhood up Broadway or a borough across a river. Where the mass of refugees(yes REFUGEES) might not be able to go home for a very long time. Or ever.

Dig out one of those old phone books from the mid 80s with the crisis preparedness sections about what to do when the Russkies let the missiles fly. Now imagine even just 20% of those procedures being put into action by the softer bellied populace today. And weep.
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post #12 of 32
8/31/08 at 2:18pm
But really, what can NO do except try to evacuate as many people as possible? Are you suggesting a designated "Refugee Camp" for survivors of natural disasters? It sucks, but we knew this was going to happen again...just a shame its so soon.

I hate to say it, but if NO floods this time, it's almost pointless to rebuild it. It's a city that really should not exist, and there's so much culture and tradition involved with the area its hard to see that, but unless we feel like dumping a helluva lot of money into protecting it, its kind of pointless to spend all that money rebuilding just to watch your shit get destroyed two years later. It's a problem with a lot of American cities....most of them are built in areas prone to natural disasters. Most of Europe's cities that were built in natural disaster areas were destroyed thousands of years ago, and never rebuilt.
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post #13 of 32
8/31/08 at 3:06pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by InTheShadows View Post
But really, what can NO do except try to evacuate as many people as possible? Are you suggesting a designated "Refugee Camp" for survivors of natural disasters? It sucks, but we knew this was going to happen again...just a shame its so soon.

I hate to say it, but if NO floods this time, it's almost pointless to rebuild it. It's a city that really should not exist, and there's so much culture and tradition involved with the area its hard to see that, but unless we feel like dumping a helluva lot of money into protecting it, its kind of pointless to spend all that money rebuilding just to watch your shit get destroyed two years later. It's a problem with a lot of American cities....most of them are built in areas prone to natural disasters. Most of Europe's cities that were built in natural disaster areas were destroyed thousands of years ago, and never rebuilt.
New Orleans or the Mississippi flood control have to go. They are at odds with each other. You can guess which one the nation is going to pick.
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post #14 of 32
8/31/08 at 3:55pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by eenin View Post
New Orleans or the Mississippi flood control have to go. They are at odds with each other. You can guess which one the nation is going to pick.
Neither.

Our country doesn't really accept something called "reality."
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post #15 of 32
8/31/08 at 7:14pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by InTheShadows View Post
Neither.

Our country doesn't really accept something called "reality."
you are right that reality has no part to play in reality.
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post #16 of 32
8/31/08 at 8:35pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by InTheShadows View Post
But really, what can NO do except try to evacuate as many people as possible? Are you suggesting a designated "Refugee Camp" for survivors of natural disasters? It sucks, but we knew this was going to happen again...just a shame its so soon.

I hate to say it, but if NO floods this time, it's almost pointless to rebuild it. It's a city that really should not exist, and there's so much culture and tradition involved with the area its hard to see that, but unless we feel like dumping a helluva lot of money into protecting it, its kind of pointless to spend all that money rebuilding just to watch your shit get destroyed two years later. It's a problem with a lot of American cities....most of them are built in areas prone to natural disasters. Most of Europe's cities that were built in natural disaster areas were destroyed thousands of years ago, and never rebuilt.
Bingo. It's an incredibly poor spot for a major city.
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post #17 of 32
8/31/08 at 11:18pm
Thread Starter 
Image
I thought I linked the last picture after it left Cuba .. .but I don't see it.

Gustav has grown almost 4x it's size after it left Cuba. It was about 2 x 2 of those dotted boxes (I know there is a technical term, I'm speaking laymans) now it's almost 4 x 4 of those dotted boxes. This is horrifically bad. Once it is done building mass it will then start to slow down (from 18 MPH) and build up intensity (from 115 MPH to potentially 145 (high CAT 4). The surges are going to be the real problem here, they were about 20 feet in Cuba and they should be about 14-15 feet here in the US and the Levees are about 10 feet high... they're really going to get their work out on this one (I don't know enough about their structural integrity to gauge if they'll hold).
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post #18 of 32
8/31/08 at 11:54pm
Quote:
Republican convention in turmoil over hurricane

September 1, 2008 - 8:15AM

The Republican convention was thrown into turmoil today with President George W. Bush and Vice President Dick Cheney cancelling appearances as deadly Hurricane Gustav homed in on New Orleans.

The Republican Party jamboree is due to begin in St Paul, Minnesota tomorrow but radical schedule changes were expected to be announced later today after meetings involving senior party officials.

Republican White House hopeful John McCain's campaign is highly sensitive to the imagery of holding a celebratory convention as a potential natural disaster looms, after the botched handling of Hurricane Katrina three years go.

McCain was heading to Mississippi today with his newly minted running mate Sarah Palin to check on preparations in the path of the storm, which looks set to deflect attention away from his best chance to address American voters.

White House spokeswoman Dana Perino said Bush, who had been due to make his swansong appearance before the convention tomorrow, will keep his attention on Gustav, due to hit the Louisiana coast in the afternoon.

She said Cheney had also scrapped his planned speech tomorrow night, although First Lady Laura Bush is still expected to attend.

Republican Party officials were mulling different scenarios up to and including curtailing the convention.

"We are looking at different options, when we have any information we will let you know," a Republican National Committee official said.

http://www.theage.com.au/us-election...w.html?page=-1
Sounds like it was a beautiful chance to get Bush and Cheney outta there without having to manufacture excuses...
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post #19 of 32
9/1/08 at 12:00am
It looks like New Orleans, at least, may be dodging this bullet. Which is a good thing. It's be nice to see a hurricane that didn't seem to go out of its way to hit a population center.
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post #20 of 32
9/1/08 at 12:18am
Between the stubborness of some and the deference to guns and booze, it almost sounds like some of the people staying in New Orleans are almost relishing the storm or something...

Quote:
Stubborn stay put to face Gustav
September 1, 2008 - 11:56AM
As highways out of New Orleans were crammed with people escaping the wrath of Hurricane Gustav, Jack Bosma planned to shutter the windows of his home and stay put.

"I'm shutting my shutters, but then I'm going to drink," Mr Bosma told AFP, saying he and group of long-time neighbours are hunkering down for the duration of the storm.

"I'm opening the porch bar until it gets too windy. I'm anxious, but I'm staying."

After days of urging New Orleans residents to flee "the mother of all storms," authorities praised those who heeded the warning and chided those determined to stay.

"The challenge seems to be that people aren't listening or they are listening and deciding to stay," Louisiana lieutenant governor Mitch Landrieu said during a press conference today.

"Staying in their homes is a very bad idea.''

Mayor Ray Nagin ordered the city emptied in the face of what he called ``the storm of the century'' and roads quickly filled with fleeing residents.

Mr Nagin said today that some 327,000 people had left New Orleans parish. He estimated about 10,000 people were risking riding out the storm.

"They were out walking their dogs this morning and have no intention of leaving,'' Nagin said of some residents refusing to budge.

"Most are people of means. They have generators; they have security; they got guns. God bless them.''

http://www.theage.com.au/world/stubb...5.html?page=-1
...and my favourite quote comes at the end...

Quote:
"God deliver us all,'' Mary Joe Decareaux said as she fled New Orleans.

"We thought we'd never go through this again.''
The level of self-delusion there is stunning.
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post #21 of 32
9/1/08 at 12:21am
Quote:
Originally Posted by myk View Post
It looks like New Orleans, at least, may be dodging this bullet. Which is a good thing. It's be nice to see a hurricane that didn't seem to go out of its way to hit a population center.


I have no idea what your talking about...
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post #22 of 32
9/1/08 at 12:50am
OK, that's just a big blob. But MSNBC is reporting that the hurricane is veering off to the West of NO and is not picking up as much energy as originally forecasted. Current forecast is for 4-6 foot storm surge. Which is bad but not terrible.
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post #23 of 32
9/1/08 at 2:29am
Thread Starter 
Quote:
Originally Posted by myk View Post
OK, that's just a big blob. But MSNBC is reporting that the hurricane is veering off to the West of NO and is not picking up as much energy as originally forecasted. Current forecast is for 4-6 foot storm surge. Which is bad but not terrible.
Veering off is bad.. here's a loop, tell me if you can figure out why.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-bd.html

** depending upon how far it veers off it could be OK but still not great ** but Satalite data on NOAA is not positive.
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post #24 of 32
9/1/08 at 9:50am
Whenever your in the northeast quadrant of a hurricane, it's not a good thing. Its probably the second worse place to be after where the eye makes landfall.
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post #25 of 32
9/1/08 at 10:01am
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/gustav_gu...rRaQboSWys0NUE

Quote:
In New Orleans, officials were anxiously watching to see what kind of storm surge the city would face: If forecasts hold, the city could experience a storm surge of only 4 to 6 feet, compared to a surge of 10 to 14 feet at the site of landfall, said Corey Walton, a hurricane support meteorologist with the National Hurricane Center.

Katrina, by comparison, brought a storm surge of 25 feet, causing levees to break. While the Army Corps of Engineers has shored up some of the city's levee system since then, fears this time center on the city's West Bank, where levee repairs have not been completed
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post #26 of 32
9/1/08 at 10:05am
It doesn't take a large storm surge to topple an eight foot high levee. That's what I'm most worried about at this point.

When that southern half of the storm comes ashore and the winds switch directions is also another time to watch for any damage to the levees.
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post #27 of 32
9/1/08 at 10:16am
http://www.weather.com/weather/map/interactive/USLA0194

That eye is coming ashore just southwest of New Orleans, near Terrebonne Bay
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post #28 of 32
9/1/08 at 12:55pm
Water is topping the industrial canal...

Quote:
MSNBC is reporting that waters from Hurricane Gustav, now a Category 2 storm, have overtopped the Industrial Canal barrier in New Orleans, and FEMA Deputy Director Harvey E. Johnson has warned that New Orleans will be “at least partially flood[ed].” Officials have evacuated 2 million people from Louisiana, but an estimated 10,000 remain in New Orleans. Hurricane-force winds also “slammed into oil terminals around Port Fourchon,” which is southwest of New Orleans and where “56 percent of the imported and Gulf of Mexico oil entering the United States passes.”
And there goes our lower gas prices.
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post #29 of 32
9/1/08 at 10:34pm
...and before this emergency dies down, the hits just keep on coming...

Quote:
Now for Hurricanes Hannah and Ike

A busy Atlantic hurricane season moved into top gear as Hurricane Hanna developed near the Bahamas just as Gustav's winds and surge lashed New Orleans and the newly formed ninth storm of the year looked set to eventually threaten the United States or Caribbean.

The flurry of storms was the latest evidence that predictions for a busier than normal season were on the mark, and was worrisome news for U.S. oil and natural gas producers in the Gulf of Mexico, millions living in the Caribbean and on U.S. coasts, and farmers fearing flooded fields. At 7am this morning, Hurricane Hanna was packing maximum sustained winds of 80kmh and intensifying near Mayaguana Island in the southeastern Bahamas, the U.S. National Hurricane Center said

http://www.theage.com.au/world/now-f...y.html?page=-1
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post #30 of 32
9/1/08 at 10:56pm
There's a storrrrrrmmmm comin'......




His storm!
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post #31 of 32
9/2/08 at 9:56am
Never realized how much McCain looks like Tigh in BSG.

That pic is my new background.
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post #32 of 32
9/2/08 at 5:36pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by eenin View Post
New Orleans or the Mississippi flood control have to go. They are at odds with each other. You can guess which one the nation is going to pick.
You have no idea what you're talking about. Nor does Snaike, or any of the other amateur meteorologists and faux civil engineers on this page. The former is demonstrated ably by the relative lack of damage (and the reactionary gas prices) actually caused by the hurricane, contrary to pessimists marking the doom of the city, but as for the latter: not only is it possible to protect New Orleans, in much the same way the Netherlands has enacted 1-in-10,000 protections for its coastal communities, it's possible to do it without sacrificing flood control. (In fact, they're complementary. I don't know where eenin got the idea that they're not, but that follows with many things.) The main obstacle to protecting the coast of Louisiana is a financial catch-22: not only are Dutch-style levees perhaps too expensive for a nation hesitant to open its pocketbooks to those in need within its own borders, especially in such a poor and politically insignificant state, industrial development and the Mississippi River Gulf Outlet Canal cause massive coastal erosion that withers away the natural protection provided by the wetlands of the Bayou.
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