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Election Night - Results to Watch

post #1 of 73
10/19/08 at 6:03pm
Thread Starter 
What results are you going to be keeping an eye on come November 4? Toss in your suggestions and I'll edit them in to the list.

Bellweather States
  • Virginia - Polls close at 7PM Eastern... if Virginia goes blue it's probably over right there (Obama 50.6 - 44.5)
  • Georgia - Polls close at 7PM Eastern... if Georgia goes blue it IS over right there (McCain 48.6 - 46.4)
  • Pennsylvania- Polls close at 8PM Eastern... media reports indicate that all of McCain's eggs are in this basket (Obama 52.1 - 44.4)
  • Nevada - Polls close at 10PM Eastern... Cuchulain has been working hard (Obama 50.4 - 43.6)

Senate
  • Alaska: Convicted Felon Stevens vs. Begich... it's a tossup right now and Alaska hasn't had a Democratic Senator since 1981 (Begich 49 - 45.2)
  • Minnesota: Franken vs. Coleman vs. Barkley... liberal comedian vs. empty suit vs. other guy (Franken 39.5 -37.6 R - 14.2)
  • Georgia: Chambliss vs. Martin... we've had a Senator named Saxby for far too long (Chambliss 46.7 - 43.9)
  • Kentucky: McConnell vs. Lunsford... the Minority Leader of the Senate, payback for Daschle, the Dems have the money to funnel to it because Obama can pay for himself now (McConnell 47.5 - 44.4)
  • Louisiana: Landrieu vs Kennedy... Incumbent narrowly won in 2002 (Landrieu 49.7 - 38.5)
  • North Carolina: Dole vs Hagan ... Hey, Bob Dole's wife! (Hagen 48.2 - 43.8)

House of Representatives
  • Minnesota 6: Bachmann vs. Tinklenberg... http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/1..._n_135735.html (Tinklenberg 44.6-44.5)
  • New York 29: Kuhl vs. Massa... so Massa will stop bothering Rath (Massa 49.3 - 42.9)
  • Ohio 3: Mike Turner vs Jane Mitakides... muy corrupt incumbent (No polling)
  • California 2: Herger vs Morris... rabidly right wing demagogue (No polling)
  • North Carolina 8: Hayes vs. Kissell... for this (Kissell 52 - 45.2)
  • Wisconsin 8: Kagan vs. Gard... 2006 Rematch! (Kagan 49.5 - 43.3)
  • Virginia 5: Goode vs Perriello... This is the guy that raised a stink about Congressman Ellison being sworn in on the Qu'ran (Goode 52.6 - 40.5)

Governor
  • Wahington: Gregoire v. Rossi... Bluish state with a douchebag challenging (Gregoire 49.6 - 47.6)
Other
Obviously blues are Dems, reds are GOP, greens are independent or 3rd party. Bolded names are incumbent. All poll numbers given are the pollster.com average and updated 11-3-08. In the absence of poll aggregation sites I will give the most recent poll I can find for the propositions). Numbers in blue indicate an uptick for the Dem, numbers in red indicate a GOP uptick)

Feel free to shout out recent polls on the propositions and I will add them to this post.

Also, just so we don't lose it before what will probably be an official election night thread, here is an unofficial, subject to change listing of when the polls close across the country.

http://www.270towin.com/closing.php
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post #2 of 73
10/19/08 at 6:06pm
I kind of want Eric Massa of the New York Congressional 29th to lose so he'll stop sending me e-mails.
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post #3 of 73
10/19/08 at 6:11pm
I really wish that James Sensenbrenner (R-WI) wasn't running unopposed. He very nearly cancels out all of the good karma that Feingold generates for my state.
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post #4 of 73
10/19/08 at 6:24pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by MissZooey View Post
I really wish that James Sensenbrenner (R-WI) wasn't running unopposed. He very nearly cancels out all of the good karma that Feingold generates for my state.
I'm afraid I'm a little unschooled in the complexities of it, but how does someone end up running unopposed?

(and...Am I correct in recognizing him as the asshole I have to thank for the extra hassle at DMV?)
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post #5 of 73
10/19/08 at 6:25pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by MissZooey View Post
I really wish that James Sensenbrenner (R-WI) wasn't running unopposed. He very nearly cancels out all of the good karma that Feingold generates for my state.
Sensenbrenner made a principled stand against the USA Patriot Act...then W and Rove yanked on the leash and he fell right into line.

Plus the more that comes out the more douchey he seems.
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post #6 of 73
10/19/08 at 6:26pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by soylentgreen View Post
I'm afraid I'm a little unschooled in the complexities of it, but how does someone end up running unopposed?
Successfully, usually.
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post #7 of 73
10/19/08 at 6:40pm
One of the interesting things in that Frontline documentary is that Obama ran unopposed in a Democratic primary for state senator after getting all his opponents' ballot petition signatures thrown out because enough of them didn't match a list of registered voters.
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post #8 of 73
10/19/08 at 6:48pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by Chavez View Post
Sensenbrenner made a principled stand against the USA Patriot Act...then W and Rove yanked on the leash and he fell right into line.
How so?

Sensenbrenner was a co-sponsor of both the PATRIOT Act (H.R. 3162) and one of the bills that was its predecessor (H.R. 2975). Source.
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post #9 of 73
10/19/08 at 6:57pm
Florida's got one of those idiotic "defense of marriage" amendments on the ballot, with the added proviso that if it's passed, a judge can't overturn it. It requires a 60% majority to pass, and right now polls are showing it 55-41 in favor. Keeping my fingers crossed.
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post #10 of 73
10/19/08 at 6:58pm
Senate

Louisiana: Landrieu vs Kennedy

Mary Landrieu is the incumbant and has had a relatively stable, large lead in polling, but the fact that A) she barely won re-election in 2002 and B) this race was at one point considered a possible toss up make it worth watching. She'll likely win, but I get the feeling it'll be closer than the polling indicates.

Edit: Landrieu ain't the greatest Senator in the world, by the way. She voted for increased wiretapping powers for the Patriot Act and is ranked as one of the top 20 most corrupt members of Congress. It's one of those situations where I'm actually not all that pleased with the prospect of voting for her, but may have to hold my nose and do it, anyway.
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post #11 of 73
10/19/08 at 7:00pm
The name of the game for CA is Prop 8.
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post #12 of 73
10/19/08 at 7:09pm
Ohio Congress 3rd district: Mike Turner vs Jane Mitakides

Turner needs to go and btw is on CREW's most corrupt members of Congress list.

http://www.crewsmostcorrupt.org/node/431


http://jane08.com/

Edited to add: Issue 6 is Ohio's most heated issue. Voters will decide if Ohio gets gambling casino's.
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post #13 of 73
10/19/08 at 7:34pm
Kentucky: McConnell vs. Lunsford


Most corrupt motherfucker in State Politics vs. A Dem Do-Nothing who couldn't win a contest if he was the only participant.

I want McConnell to lose in the worst way, but he always manages to pull shit off without the help of surrounding counties and the rural shitholes.
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post #14 of 73
10/19/08 at 7:37pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by EdHocken View Post
The name of the game for CA is Prop 8.
I had a devilish thought the other day. What if Prop 8 was designed to draw out as many people who would vote for McCain as possible and the evil GOP lords had the fires set in California to burn out the liberals who would normally vote on Nov 4th out of the election flipping the state to McCain. That would negate all the small electoral victories that Obama has in states like Colorado, New Mexico, Iowa, New Hampshire (battleground states). If California is flipped all McCain has to do is hold on to either Ohio OR Florida.

He could lose Colorado, New Mexico, Montana, North Dakota, Virginia, Iowa, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania and the popular vote and still maintain a 270 - 268 win all with the pickup of California through election swindling. If it was Bush, I'd expect it....
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post #15 of 73
10/19/08 at 7:42pm
Only result I care about is the presidential election this time around.

For Congress I would vote against all incumbents to be quite honest.
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post #16 of 73
10/19/08 at 7:45pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by ElCapitanAmerica View Post
For Congress I would vote against all incumbents to be quite honest.
How Un"undecided" of you.
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post #17 of 73
10/19/08 at 7:52pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by Snaieke View Post
I had a devilish thought the other day. What if Prop 8 was designed to draw out as many people who would vote for McCain as possible and the evil GOP lords had the fires set in California to burn out the liberals who would normally vote on Nov 4th out of the election flipping the state to McCain. That would negate all the small electoral victories that Obama has in states like Colorado, New Mexico, Iowa, New Hampshire (battleground states). If California is flipped all McCain has to do is hold on to either Ohio OR Florida.
There is absolutely not a chance in the burning fires of hell that this state would go red. That's effectively asking NY to turn red. That will not happen.
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post #18 of 73
10/19/08 at 7:59pm
Is there some kind of online tracking a la Five Thirty Eight to see how Prop. 8 is doing county to county in CA? I'm really interested in following that one as well.
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post #19 of 73
10/19/08 at 8:11pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by ElCapitanAmerica View Post
For Congress I would vote against all incumbents to be quite honest.
Usually a good way to go. I just wish all the Democrats and Republicans on the finance committees would get the boot this year. If not this year all of them should have strong challengers in 2010.

Looking forward to Dole vs Hagen in North Carolina.
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post #20 of 73
10/19/08 at 9:16pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by EdHocken View Post
There is absolutely not a chance in the burning fires of hell that this state would go red. That's effectively asking NY to turn red. That will not happen.
That's what they want you to think.. until Nov 5th at 2 AM.

First it was Florida, then Ohio...

I fully expect YT's head to explode if this happens, so we need some new posters from California to keep us appraised of the riots and protests and what not. You're our man Ed.
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post #21 of 73
10/19/08 at 10:25pm
Thread Starter 
Well... the most recent poll has Obama up 59-35. Still, let's not get cocky.
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post #22 of 73
10/21/08 at 1:54am
Congress: Wally Herger v. Jeff Morris for CD02 in California. I want Herger to lose in the worst way. You literally cannot get more rabidly right-wing than Herger and he seems to actually consciously try to vote against the interests of his constituents.

Nevada: Obama vs. McCain. Our campaign has registered 48,000 new Democrats in the last five months alone. There are now 100,000 more registered Democrats than Republicans in Nevada. On top of that, much of the Republicans in Nevada were Ron Paul supporters and feel betrayed by the GOP because the GOP shut their state's delegation out of the convention due to all the Paul supporters. So, we have a very sizable number of Republican supporters. If the Early Vote and GOTV campaigns are even marginally successful, we should win in a landslide.
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post #23 of 73
10/21/08 at 2:08am
Thread Starter 
Updated with your races.

Nevada looks ripe for the picking. Bush won 50-46 in 2000, 50-48 in 2004. In 2004, that translated to 22,000 votes.

But as Obama mentioned, if Florida goes blue we'll all be asleep by then.
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post #24 of 73
10/21/08 at 12:46pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by myk View Post
...if Florida goes blue we'll all be DRUNK by then.
FIXED
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post #25 of 73
10/21/08 at 12:48pm
I'm really curious about all the new voter registrations, and what is the percentage of them that will actually go vote, seeing that there is a big group of people there who weren't motivated enough even to register.
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post #26 of 73
10/21/08 at 4:08pm
Thread Starter 
I've added North Carolina's 8th to the House list because of Robin Hayes' recent divisive comments at a McCain Palin rally.

Quote:
Folks, there’s a real America, and liberals hate real Americans that work, and accomplish, and achieve, and believe in God
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post #27 of 73
10/21/08 at 4:18pm
The fact that this kind of hateful bile is now damaging to a candidate makes me very happy, but it also makes me wonder why it was so effective for so long and has suddenly turned around.
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post #28 of 73
10/21/08 at 5:49pm
The Washington State Gubernatorial Race.
Christine Gregoire (D) incumbent vs. Dino Rossi (R), challenger.
This is their second match-up, and it's ridiculously close. It baffles me how in a state that has had a Democratic majority for so long, the governor's race can be so competetive. And especially with a corrupt social conservative usuing copious illegal donations from the Buidling and Industry Association of Washington to paint himself as a moderate. He's under investigation, and may be subpoena'd for it, but that has had no effect in the race, because the papers collude with him in calling it a "partisan attack". He played the SEX OFFENDER card in a series of nasty and morally reprehensible commercials, and then people are conivnced GREGOIRE is the negative one. And worst, he has run on a platform of CHANGE. I am so glad Biden came to Tacoma to promote Gregoire, but I don't think it will be enough to defeat this assface.
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post #29 of 73
10/21/08 at 6:03pm
Please destroy Michele Bachmann. A lot.
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post #30 of 73
10/21/08 at 6:05pm
So who's throwing big November 4th bashes?
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post #31 of 73
10/21/08 at 6:16pm
Well, put it this way, I may not show up to work on the 5th on the basis of I'll be too hungover. This will be true regardless of the outcome.
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post #32 of 73
10/21/08 at 7:55pm
Thread Starter 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Admiral Shark View Post
The Washington State Gubernatorial Race.
Christine Gregoire (D) incumbent vs. Dino Rossi (R), challenger.
This is their second match-up, and it's ridiculously close. It baffles me how in a state that has had a Democratic majority for so long, the governor's race can be so competetive. And especially with a corrupt social conservative usuing copious illegal donations from the Buidling and Industry Association of Washington to paint himself as a moderate. He's under investigation, and may be subpoena'd for it, but that has had no effect in the race, because the papers collude with him in calling it a "partisan attack". He played the SEX OFFENDER card in a series of nasty and morally reprehensible commercials, and then people are conivnced GREGOIRE is the negative one. And worst, he has run on a platform of CHANGE. I am so glad Biden came to Tacoma to promote Gregoire, but I don't think it will be enough to defeat this assface.
Added the list. Pollster has it as a tossup at the moment but if you need reassurance note that in the midterms the Democrats did not lose a single seat in either house of Congress or any governorship. Dems got big Mo.
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post #33 of 73
10/21/08 at 10:47pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by myk View Post
Nevada looks ripe for the picking. Bush won 50-46 in 2000, 50-48 in 2004. In 2004, that translated to 22,000 votes..
The depressing thing about that figure is this: that breaks down to 13 voters per precinct. Truly, if a couple of more Democratic households in each precinct had shown up to the polls, we'd have a President Kerry on our hands. Somehow, I think Obama can get a Kerry turnout +13 in each precinct.
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post #34 of 73
10/21/08 at 10:50pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by Boomstick View Post
Please destroy Michele Bachmann. A lot.
Fuckin A.

And as for Nov 4. I imagine I'll either be at a swimming pool or doing what I did when watching Super Tuesday results. At the gym.

Hey I wish I could drink but I got work the next day dammit.
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post #35 of 73
10/21/08 at 11:03pm
Thread Starter 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Cuchulain View Post
Truly, if a couple of more Democratic households in each precinct had shown up to the polls, we'd have a President Kerry on our hands.
Not unless Nevada had an extra dozen electoral votes last election.
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post #36 of 73
10/21/08 at 11:25pm
Nevada, the only place I can think of where the Ron Paul effect might still be there. Thank you Art Bell listeners.
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post #37 of 73
10/21/08 at 11:28pm
Thread Starter 
I think Ron Paul is on the ballot in Montana or North Dakota. Nate Silver just talked about that on Countdown.
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post #38 of 73
10/22/08 at 12:11pm
I just discovered this thread, and I'm going to go ahead and throw in Congressman Steve Kagen (D) vs. John Gard (R) battling it out for the 8th District of Wisconsin. This race was pretty hotly contested in 2006, and it looks like it's going to just as tough this time around, so I'll be keeping an eye on it.
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post #39 of 73
10/22/08 at 9:04pm
Thread Starter 
Crap... I just updated all the polls for today and then I hit the wrong button and I'm sure as hell not doing it again.

The Louisiana Senate race that Drew is concerned about is fascinating to me, though. Landrieu, the Democratic incumbent, is polling up 53-39. Crushing in the polls. Even though those party sponsored polls are both beyond suspect, the recent Rasmussen poll shows Landrieu up +13.

But Louisiana is one of McCain's strongest states, polling up 53.7-41.5... +12.

I'm still expecting both Landrieu and McCain to win their races their but it will be interesting to see which race deviates from the polling more. Unfortunately, polls don't close in LA until 9PM so it won't be much of a predictor.
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post #40 of 73
10/22/08 at 9:12pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by myk View Post
Crap... I just updated all the polls for today and then I hit the wrong button and I'm sure as hell not doing it again.

The Louisiana Senate race that Drew is concerned about is fascinating to me, though. Landrieu, the Democratic incumbent, is polling up 53-39. Crushing in the polls. Even though those party sponsored polls are both beyond suspect, the recent Rasmussen poll shows Landrieu up +13.

But Louisiana is one of McCain's strongest states, polling up 53.7-41.5... +12.

I'm still expecting both Landrieu and McCain to win their races their but it will be interesting to see which race deviates from the polling more. Unfortunately, polls don't close in LA until 9PM so it won't be much of a predictor.
She may blow it out of the water, but I get the feeling it's going to be closer than the polling indicates. Her biggest base of power has always been New Orleans and it's surrounding areas (her father was Mayor of New Orleans), but the demographics have changed there radically due to Katrina.

I expect a win but I think it will be a close one.
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post #41 of 73
10/23/08 at 9:58am
Quote:
Originally Posted by Richard Dickson View Post
Florida's got one of those idiotic "defense of marriage" amendments on the ballot, with the added proviso that if it's passed, a judge can't overturn it. It requires a 60% majority to pass, and right now polls are showing it 55-41 in favor. Keeping my fingers crossed.
I'm fairly confident I know how you're voting on Prop 2 Dickson. I wonder how other Chewers in Florida are voting.
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post #42 of 73
10/23/08 at 11:16am
Thread Starter 
Latest polling in California shows No beating Yes 52-44.

http://www.latimes.com/news/local/la...,4937128.story
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post #43 of 73
10/23/08 at 11:33am
The thing that bugs me about these defense of marriage amendments is the whole "we don't want judges determining these things, the people should." By that logic, we'd still have segregation in most of the South. There are some things the people need to be overruled on.

Oh, and another thing -- if you really want to "protect" marriage, outlaw divorce, don't stop people from being able to marry.
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post #44 of 73
10/23/08 at 8:18pm
What Boomstick said.

And please let Saxby be DESTROYED for what he did to Max Cleland. Max only lost 3 limbs fighting for this country and Saxby still tarred him as un-American.
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post #45 of 73
10/23/08 at 9:09pm
Also, in neighboring Oregon, the Senate Race between incumbent Republican Gordon Smith and Democratic challenger Jeff Merkley. Gordon Smith is a "moderate", who pretend to be centrist to pander to Oregon voters, but has a record which belies that claim. He had the balls to use the fact that he collaborated with Obama in the Senate on something in a campaign ad. In the opposite corner, we have Jeff Merkley, who is responsible for outlawing fucking payday lenders in Oregon. let us all cheer for Merkley!
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post #46 of 73
10/24/08 at 12:35am
Thread Starter 
Bachmann watch... pollster has yet to incorporate this but Tinklenberg is up 47-44-6 in the latest Survey USA poll.
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post #47 of 73
10/27/08 at 5:19pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by myk View Post
Bellweather States[LIST]

Senate[LIST][*]Alaska: Stevens vs. Begich... it's a tossup right now and Alaska hasn't had a Democratic Senator since 1981 (Begich 47.4 - 46)
Stevens should be done
Quote:
Sen. Ted Stevens (R-Alaska) was convicted today on seven counts of failing to report more than $250,000 in improper gifts he received from 1999 to 2006, a stunning blow to a political career that has lasted more than 40 years and marked Alaska’s entire history as a part of the United States.

Stevens, 84, now faces a question over whether he will resign, and if he does not, whether he can win reelection Nov. 4 in an already tough race. Stevens showed no emotion, holding his stomach as verdict was read.
Be real funny if this caused McCain/Palin to lose Alaska.
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post #48 of 73
10/27/08 at 5:31pm
Thread Starter 
It will definitely hurt Republican voter turnout.
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post #49 of 73
10/29/08 at 7:03pm
Thread Starter 
Updated. 3/4 state polls show movement toward Obama since the last time I updated.
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post #50 of 73
10/29/08 at 7:11pm
I'm still trying to figure out what to do on Election day. Go to the gym? Pool? A bar? Where?
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