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Electoral Map Contest

post #1 of 41
10/24/08 at 1:44am
Thread Starter 
The Rules
  • Fill in an electoral map of your predictions at one of the thousandish "Create your own electoral map" sites like www.270towin.com.
  • Cut and paste (or screenshot and paste) in to this thread by 11:59PM Eastern Time, Monday November 3.
  • If you think that an electoral vote will be split off in either Maine or Nebraska, note it underneath (if your electoral map generator does not do it for you).
  • Include in the post your prediction for percentage of the popular vote split to two decimal places.
Winning
  • The person with the most states guessed correctly wins
  • First tiebreaker: Number of electoral votes guessed correctly
  • Second tiebreaker: Proximity over under to the winner's percentage of the popular vote.

Prize
  • I dunno... bragging rights?

Post below if this is something worth pursuing.
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post #2 of 41
10/24/08 at 2:36am
I'll bite...

**********

Worst-Case Scenario:



Likely Scenario:



Awesome Scenario:



**********

Popular vote:

Obama - 62,000,000 avg.
McCain - 60,000,000 avg.

Fuck decimals, :P
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post #3 of 41
10/24/08 at 2:41am
Wait, wait, wait. How many permutations are you allowed to have?
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post #4 of 41
10/24/08 at 7:28am
Quote:
Originally Posted by ElCapitanAmerica View Post
Wait, wait, wait. How many permutations are you allowed to have?
I guess "Likely Scenario" is my main one. The other two are for added flavor and discussion.
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post #5 of 41
10/24/08 at 7:57am
I'm a very optimistic person!


Guess my map is exactly like BTSMGL's "awesome map"
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post #6 of 41
10/24/08 at 9:14am
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post #7 of 41
10/24/08 at 9:46am
My prediction:

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post #8 of 41
10/24/08 at 8:52pm
So, how do you copy your 270towin map into your post?
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post #9 of 41
10/24/08 at 8:54pm
Thread Starter 
If you're on a PC use the PrintScreen key, paste it into a graphic editor (MS Paint if you have nothing else), crop it, save it, post it.
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post #10 of 41
10/24/08 at 10:24pm
I'm still debating to switch Florida and Missouri... we'll see though.
LL
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post #11 of 41
10/24/08 at 10:37pm
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post #12 of 41
10/24/08 at 11:02pm
My prediction:
LL
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post #13 of 41
10/24/08 at 11:25pm
Hoping for a for a total landslide, but I'll make a more moderate prediction.

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post #14 of 41
10/24/08 at 11:57pm
I would predict North Carolina and Indiana to go blue before Ohio. As we've seen, Ohio has a disproportionate share of total morons.
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post #15 of 41
10/25/08 at 12:25am
Quote:
Originally Posted by Admiral Shark View Post
I would predict North Carolina and Indiana to go blue before Ohio. As we've seen, Ohio has a disproportionate share of total morons.
In regards to Indiana and Ohio, there would be an interesting political study to be done if Obama could win Indiana and lose Ohio. In Indiana, 8% of its residents are black. In Ohio, 12% of its residents are black. Ohio almost doubles Indiana in population.

Assuming that Obama gains 98% of the black vote this year, a victory in Ohio would be far easier than a victory in Indiana for Obama.

SurveyUSA polled Ohio at getting a 10 percentage gain for Democratic party affiliation since 2006. Indiana's Republican gain shrunk significantly since 2006, but it is still considered a small Republican-affiliated state.

Combining the black vote numbers along with party affiliation, it would be highly unlikely that Obama could pull off a victory in Indiana, but not Ohio. If that was the case, a PhD candidate would have a pretty damn good dissertation.

Ohio should almost certainly go blue this election cycle. A high population of college students, a high union base, along with excellent GOTV work in the cities for blacks should seal it for Obama.
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post #16 of 41
10/25/08 at 12:54am
Thread Starter 
Indiana gets an advantage because large sections of it are part of Chicago's media market.

Ohio iis the home of Joe the Plumber so presumably all his friends and what I can only assume to be his thousands of clients will be voting McCain.
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post #17 of 41
10/25/08 at 10:34am
Still can't get it copied here but I'm prediction a devestating blowout by Obama winning 373 to 165

States Obama wins
Northeast-Maine, Vermont, New Hampshire, New York, Massachusetts, Conneticut, Rhode Island, New Jersey, Deleware, Maryland D.C.

Southeast-North Carolina, Virginia, Georgia, Florida

Big 10-Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Minnesota

Western-Missouri, Montana, Colorado, New Mexico, Nevada, Washington, Oregon, California, Hawaii

I believe the polls are off, Obama will dominate but Ohio will still be a bunch of fuck ups. Florida will atone this year though.
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post #18 of 41
10/25/08 at 1:02pm
Thread Starter 


Obama 52.50 - McCain 46.5

I think any state that shows even an inkling of swinging to Obama, will swing to Obama. Except NH where I don't trust polling even a little bit.
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post #19 of 41
10/25/08 at 1:17pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by myk View Post
Indiana gets an advantage because large sections of it are part of Chicago's media market.

Ohio iis the home of Joe the Plumber so presumably all his friends and what I can only assume to be his thousands of clients will be voting McCain.
The Chicago media market only extends a tad past Gary. Gary is 88% black. 2/3rds of the state lives in the Indianapolis MSA. Marion County, where the City of Indianapolis is located, was won by John Kerry in 2004 by only 6,000 votes.

I don't doubt that Indiana may go blue, but the demographics in Indiana are far more hostile to progressive thought statistically than the demographics in Ohio.

It would be a statistical anomaly to see Indiana go blue and Ohio go red this election year. If it happens, cool. But, we would seriously need to see a dramatic voting shift from individuals who voted Republicans in office the past decades for that to happen in Indiana, but not Ohio.
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post #20 of 41
10/25/08 at 1:48pm
I'll never trust Ohio.

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post #21 of 41
10/31/08 at 12:16pm
edit: Whoops.
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post #22 of 41
10/31/08 at 2:12pm
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post #23 of 41
10/31/08 at 2:28pm
Are you serious or are you just trying to get a response?
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post #24 of 41
10/31/08 at 2:32pm
Hey, I'm glad he's putting it up there. You never know, he might be right.
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post #25 of 41
10/31/08 at 2:34pm
Thread Starter 
Snaieke, what site is that from? That looks considerably nicer than 270towin. I mean except for the color of the states.

ETA - It does emphasize how important Virginia is. In Snaieke's scenario, if Obama loses FL, OH, and PA Virginia would still flip the election to Obama.
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post #26 of 41
10/31/08 at 2:35pm
I wouldn't be suprised if Ohio,Florida & PA went to McCain
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post #27 of 41
10/31/08 at 2:42pm
It would greatly surprise me if PA goes red. They would no longer have room to complain about losing their jobs in the steel industry.
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post #28 of 41
10/31/08 at 2:45pm
http://www.usatoday.com/news/politic...te-tracker.htm

I used that map, filled in the states I thought would go where and then I put it in mspaint, cropped and threw it up on Photobucket, Myk.
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post #29 of 41
10/31/08 at 2:46pm
Thread Starter 
Quote:
Originally Posted by buddhabliss View Post
I wouldn't be suprised if Ohio,Florida & PA went to McCain
My jaw would hit the floor if Obama lost three states he's polling up in right now.
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post #30 of 41
10/31/08 at 3:57pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by Snaieke View Post
It's like a NCAA pool when someone picks Gonzaga to go all the way over the favorites.

Why if you have McCain pulling miracles out of his ass in Virginia and Pennsylvania you don't do the same in Colorado New Mexico, and Nevada?

I still say 373 for Obama but am ppulling for 383 and getting Arizona.
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post #31 of 41
10/31/08 at 4:10pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by Anyawatchin Angel View Post
It's like a NCAA pool when someone picks Gonzaga to go all the way over the favorites.

Why if you have McCain pulling miracles out of his ass in Virginia and Pennsylvania you don't do the same in Colorado New Mexico, and Nevada?

I still say 373 for Obama but am ppulling for 383 and getting Arizona.
I'm rooting for the underdog. I figure PA is the only real election path for McCain, might as well go with that state tipping instead of 6 others. I wanted the Rays to win the World Series also... sometimes you just have to get used to life's little disappointments
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post #32 of 41
11/4/08 at 1:14am
http://elections.nytimes.com/2008/pr...tml#/map=eMz_M
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post #33 of 41
11/4/08 at 1:30am
Here's mine......

I think AZ is going to flip....

http://elections.nytimes.com/2008/pr...ml#/map=wZsb_M
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post #34 of 41
11/4/08 at 1:40am
Jesus, that would be crazy, eh?
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post #35 of 41
11/5/08 at 1:42am
can't wait to see who won this in the end.
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post #36 of 41
11/5/08 at 3:03am
Well, we know who lost

http://chud.com/forum/showpost.php?p...3&postcount=22
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post #37 of 41
11/5/08 at 3:04am
Thread Starter 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Bailey View Post
I'm waiting for Snaieke to rip his mask off and reveal that he's really David Plouffe.

ETA: I definitely got GA, NH, ND wrong. It looks like I'm getting MO wrong. And MT... remember the Senate race in MT two years ago? Decided by trip digits... looks like we're going there again.
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post #38 of 41
11/5/08 at 3:14am
Quote:
Originally Posted by C.Swicegood View Post
My prediction:
Boy was I wrong.
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post #39 of 41
11/5/08 at 4:24am
I have an outside shot of being right with 373 with a few wrong states. Way off with Georgia and Ohio.
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post #40 of 41
11/5/08 at 12:47pm
I missed on MT and ND and it looks like MO. If everything stands as it is I'm off by 17 EV.
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post #41 of 41
11/11/08 at 10:39pm
Thread Starter 
We all missed the NE-2 so we'll discount that. And I'm assuming Missouri stays red
  • Most states accurate: Tyler Ueland (only missed Missouri)
  • Closest electoral count: Bitch Leave (swapped MO and IN)
  • Fewest states accurate and furthest electoral count: Snaieke (missed PA, OH, IN, VA, NC, FL)

Thanks for playing!
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