We have no science forum, so I figured I'd make a thread where we can discuss technology, speculate about the future, and plan the resistance for the day the machines take over.
On that note: Vernor Vinge predicts the Technological Singularity will arrive by 2030
More at the link.
More on the Singularity: http://yudkowsky.net/singularity/schools
On that note: Vernor Vinge predicts the Technological Singularity will arrive by 2030
Quote:
| The Singularity. Ray Kurzweil has popularized it and, by now, some of our readers no doubt drop it frequently into casual conversation and await it like salvation. (The second “helping?”) but many more are still unfamiliar with the concept. The contemporary notion of the Singularity got started with legendary SF writer Vernor Vinge, whose 1981 novella True Names pictured a society on the verge of this “event.” In a 1993 essay, “The Coming Technological Singularity,” Vinge made his vision clear, writing that “within thirty years, we will have the technological means to create superhuman intelligence. Shortly after, the human era will be ended.” We caught up with Vinge at the 2008 Singularity Summit in San Jose, California, where he opened the proceedings in conversation with bob Pisani of CNBC. Vinge’s most recent novel is Rainbow’s End. h+: Let’s start with the basics. What is the Singularity? VERNOR VINGE: Lots of people have definitions for the Singularity that may differ in various ways. My personal definition for the Singularity — I think that in the relatively near historical future, humans, using technology, will be able to create, or become, creatures of superhuman intelligence. I think the term Singularity is appropriate, because unlike other technological changes, it seems to me pretty evident that this change would be unintelligible to us afterwards in the same way that our present civilization is unintelligible to a goldfish. h+: Haven’t there been other Singularities throughout history? VV: Some folks will say there have been singularities before — for instance, the printing press. but before Gutenberg, you could have explained to somebody what a printing press would be and you could have explained the consequences. Even though those consequences might not have been believed, the listener would have understood what you were saying. But you could not explain a printing press to a goldfish or a flat worm. And having the post-Singularity explained to us now is qualitatively different from explaining past breakthroughs in the same way. So all these extreme events like the invention of fire, the invention of the printing press, and the evolution of cities and agriculture are not the right analogy. The technological Singularity is more akin to the rise of humankind within the animal kingdom, or perhaps to the rise of multicellular life. h+: Is the Singularity near? VV: I ‘d personally be surprised if it hadn’t happened by 2030. That doesn’t mean that terrible things won’t happen instead, but I think it is the most likely non-catastrophic event in the near future. |
More on the Singularity: http://yudkowsky.net/singularity/schools






