I read an interview with a Valve spokesman (I think it was Doug Lombardi) which hinted at EP3 becoming a much bigger project than they initially planned.
I don't know if it's becoming a full-fledged HL3, but I'm guessing they're develeoping the Source Engine to do bigger and better things than before. They also hinted at incorporating the L4D's "Director" and crowd-AI into certain segments of EP3.
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Originally Posted by A-Pathetic 
I could be wrong, but I've had the impression for a while that HL2 is what Valve works on because the fans really want it but not really because of their passion for the project. They still put out quality, but their interests lie in other areas right now. So Ep 3 will arrive, but it's certainly not front burner for them.
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You're probably right about that - Valve has discovered a new direction for their company, which is to apply their iterative, "Mod" approach to multiplayer games. With L4D, they just decided to iterate in bigger (more profitable) chunks than TF2.
Actually, I'm under the impression they're intentionally undercharging for TF2, and supporting it as a "loss-leader" product to get people into the Steam system and make them into loyal Valve customers. There's no other reason they would put so much post-release support into a game that is only $20, and doesn't have any subscription fees.