Post-Bush Iran - Page 2

I think a lot of people are going to wake up and realise the Right has no monopoly on political assholeness..though that will come to as a shock to a lot of people.
I pegged Chavez as just another Latin American Dictator some time ago, the only difference being he uses Marxist Rhetoric.

Likely true ... although the situation and environment in Iran is so different from that in China that you might be a tad pessimistic there. At this point, I think the unrest is escalating beyond Mousavi and the elections, and the frustration goes way deeper than that displayed at Tienanmen Square.

Which people exactly? I don't know anyone that honestly thinks or thought that.

Which is all fine and dandy, but in the end, there is a point at which these people will break, and I dont think a guy like Ahmadinejad is very shy about trying to find it before he goes out with a bang.

Not that I hope so, but this reminds me a bit of the "V for Vendetta" quote, where , paraphrased, its said that whenever people without guns go up against people with guns, the same ugly thing happens in the end.

You don't listen to enough American talk radio. It's filled with the kind of retards who are more concerned with Letterman joking about Palin's demon spawn than they are about... well... THINGS THAT MATTER.

Image of the protest going on right now: http://twitpic.com/7mbhc. The ability to mobilize and coordinate all of these protests is astounding.

Absolutely. Ironic that free nations could take a page on how to effectively organize demonstrations from the citizens of an oppressive regime like Iran.

I still don't understand how people are finding out about these protests and marches. Most of the population doesn't have internet access in the first place, and I would imagine they're not going to allow TV stations to air messages from Mousavi people.

While the parallels to Tianamen are obvious, this also feels a little like watching Poland and Germany in 1989.

For everyone that is interested here is a very interesting article (in English obviously) about Washingtons reaction to the Iran crisis from an European point of view.
Might be of interest for some of you.

The problem I have is Obama is keeping quiet for the sake of a deal on nukes with Iran which a lot of people..including me..are not sure is going to be worth the paper it is written on. I fully expect the Mullahs to play the same game North Korea is playing.
But Obama will start to pay a poltical price for playing it safe.

His hands are tied. He can't say much without hurting the actual people protesting in Iran.

Exactly, there's not a whole lot for him to do here. This is Iran's business through and through. Lord knows we don't want to fuck around there....again.

I think its important to keep in mind that as the situation in Iran unfolds, the balance of power can shift. Mousavi didn't skyrocket in the polls until he really started putting the screws to Ahmedinejad and the ruling clerics.

The protests are not pro-Mousavi as they are anti-establishment. As such, Khahmeni's power is slipping as is the Supreme Council's power. And so the nuclear issue is definitely on the table because its one of the only bargaining chips they have (the other big one being a change to marriage laws) to bring the reformists back into the fold. If the protests grow in strength and in righteous cause, the balance of power shifts away from the ruling clerics and towards the reformers. It has to.

So, Obama is playing this just right.

I'm pessimistic about the whole thing, I still think when push comes to shove the mullahs and RG will crack enough heads to stop any serious insurrection. If that were to happen we could see civil war but unless the RG and the other paramilitary groups side with the Mousavi factions (which I don't think they have so far) this won't end in any kind of massive upheavel. I really hope it does though, ironically while Iran and America's governments hate each other their people have a lot in common. Moreso than many other suppsedly "friendly to US interest" nations in the region.

As for Obama, he hasn't done anything and Iran is already saying that we're meddling - http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20090617/..._iran_election.

It's possible and that would be a real shame as Iran is one of the most facinating countries and cultures out there. But we'll see, I've had the feeling (And I base this on nothing) that if there is to be change, it's going to be from the inside. Especially because of how young the country is.

Bingo. Its funny to think how the mullahs are reaping what they sowed here. During the Iran/Iraq war they pushed people to have large families as they needed potential new recruits for the long war and their casualties were so high. Now they have a massive youth movement that is biting them in the ass. But I'll tell you what, they couldn't have expected this to happen because without the Internet and the modern forms of communication this type of upheavel would be almost impossible.

Side question, can you own a gun in Iran as a civilian? Or is the military/police the only armed individuals in the country?

Good question, but in regards to the youth. Unlike China, there isn't a developed self-interest within the youth population. On top of which you have a shitty economy.

We may have to get used to a nuclear Iran - the majority of Iranians want it. I'm well aware that Israel, regardless of the Iranian leadership, will freak out. But in the end, it would be better to have nuclear capability in the hands of Mossavi than with Ahmadinejad.

But make no mistake - however we want to believe it, Iran's going nuclear, and any attacks we make on them could be very bad indeed.

Nuclear power definitely. I don't think (although I have no proof of this) that the majority of the protesters have such a hard-on for nuclear weapons.

Why wouldn't they? I would guess most Iranians are afraid of a nuclear Israel.

I guarantee that Israel is nuclear. It's the unspoken elephant in the Middle East room.

This was done last year but is entirely appropriate to what is going on today;

"Iran: A Nation of Bloggers"
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MChlT0GvFPM

Israel's had nukes for years now and while they might have threatened other countries, none of them have actually been hit.

So while I'm sure there is a fear of Israel using its nukes, reformists in Iran seem to be keen on opening up a dialogue with the West, esp Obama. Iran's failure to comply with the non-proliferation treaty is the main sticking point in negotiations. No dialog or opening up occurs without that somewhat being on the table.

Apparently they hired myers87 to work on their made up crowd pictures.

*Examines picture*

I think I saw Waldo in there.

Which, in their eyes and actually quite rightfully so, is akin to a fox asking the hen to unlock the door of the cage before they start talking about how to develop their relationship from there.
Nukes are the only working deterrent from US aggression, thats the message your country is sending for years now, and keeps sending as long as there isnt even the hint of repercussions for the war criminals that made Iraq happen.

Well those are the reasons why people shouldn't fool themselves that the opposition in this case is not pro nukes. Still doesn't make it right and doesn't mean we shouldn't try everything in our power to prevent it.

They want nuclear power.

http://in.reuters.com/article/worldN...36735220081127

Iran's big problem is it's a poor, underdeveloped country. 80% of their GDP is oil exports and they don't have a decent enough refinery so they have to import oil \ gasoline and subsidize it for the people ($.07 a gallon?). Going nuclear would give them a lot of energy options and open an economic door for them, thus... why they're doing it.

Last year they were sitting pretty with the high oil prices and surplus in subsides meant more money for the masses, it also meant the 'establishment' went full throttle with government works projects once those prices tanked, so did their economy (even further).

They're sitting at very high inflation, huge deficits and they don't have the capital or the wealth to get into debt so that meant cut backs, including the subsides for the poor \ middle class (mostly the middle class).. property costs have skyrocked because people started investing their money into the real estate market to try and find protection to a devaluing currency.

In a nutshell, that is some of the major underlying reasons for the election protests \ riots. "It's the economy, stupid".

http://www.business24-7.ae/Articles/...b942cadfd.aspx

Thats just one half of it. The other half is what makes this stew boil over. Young people in Iran suffer from the Double-Punch of this economic problem, which of course as usual is primarily a problem of middle and lower class, and the growing cultural divide between those who set the rules, and those who have to follow them, primarily when it comes to religious tradition and dogma.

You see, in order to be allowed to marry a woman, a guy (or in liberal cases, the couple together) has to have their own home. Otherwise, no marriage allowed. And since pre-marital sex is not an option, at least not legally (and from what I hear, a lot of women are afraid of being used and discarded, virginity is a HUGE value there, so the "no sex" rule isnt just imposed on them, but accepted), you got a ton of unemployed, unmarried guys , sexually frustrated, living at the whim of an old, increasingly disconnected, saber-rattling elite.
The rising real estate prices have caused a decline in marriages of amazing proportions. Currently, you cant even afford a small flat in Teheran if both guy and girl are middle-class wage earners. Real Estate speculation has skyrocketed those prices, plus people are holding onto them due to inflation (as Snaieke correctly said), and this is looking get worse and worse.

The economical side, I think could be weathered. Irans people are used to basically being abused economically by their superiors, and religion is a powerful tool to keep a populace under control. But the together with the synergy of the religious and traditional rules, you have this bomb going up now.

Iran protest outnumbers 1979 revolution: filmmaker

...I just for the life of me can't tell if this is going to end Orange Revolution-style or Tienanmen Square-style.

Either way this is a profound moment in not just the history of Iran but I think the middle east.

What's going on in Iran is really fucked up, which is why I feel bad for noticing this. The Persian women I've seen in many of the protest pics are fucking hot. Who knew?

Noticed that too :-)

One thing is for sure, I'm glad McCain/Palin didn't win the election. This is not a scenario they would have handled well at all.

You and me both. The last thing the situation needs right now is for the West and especially the US to put their weight behind the opposition. Even, as it's most likely these events aren't a knock out punch for the Iranian regime, they will certainly soften its defense enough so that a future one is. And the US by playing the role of a concerned observer rather than an active part are taking many of the current regime's most persuasive arguments away.

*raises hand*

Burke, I don't know where you have been. But welcome to the club.

Well, historically speaking, Persian women were always very highly regarded for their looks.

Yes, I've had the pleasure of knowing some stunning Persian women.

To move it back on-topic (sorta,) what's up with the Neo-Cons? They seem to want to sabotage the reform movement. Are they that hungry for war? At the very least, they're not being helpful.

I think that the neo-cons see an easy target in Admadinejad. It's not difficult to paint a crazed lunatic as being a crazed lunatic. Mousavi, though, would be a much harder person to smear right now.

Also, they're looking to undermine Obama in every way they can right now and are pissed that he's not taking the bait.

Robert Baer: Don't Forget Mousavi's Bloody Past
http://www.time.com/time/world/artic...905477,00.html

But it's becoming apparent that the issue is no longer who did/didn't get elected, but how blatantly the fraudulence was carried out and how the reigning regime is dealing with the people crying "bullshit".

And even if nothing else good comes out of this, at least we got a meme out of it.

Fucking a, he said that yesterday! We're getting to a point where people will create memes before the meme has even been thought.

This is both hilarious and chilling ...

http://www.memritv.org/clip/en/2147.htm

John McCain - a senior White House official who orchestrates numerous conspiracies against the Islamic Republic of Iran

George Soros - a Jewish tycoon, and the mastermind of ultra-modern colonialism.

This is all animated with 3D characters, then it turns into a story about some guys working for America (so they can move there and have 'fun') and the sister and mother of one of them calling the "113 hotline" of the friendly "Intelligence Ministry".

Their ominous slogan ...

"We are the guardians of your information"

Stephen Colbert (or FOX NEWS) should sue...

And thus spoke Ayatollah.

Party's over. Daddy said so.

Yes they are. The most beautiful woman I ever dated was of 'persian' descent. Her Mom was from Iraq, Dad was from Iran. Real Romeo and Juliet story there. Her parents were cool, they just hated their governments and managed moved to the US. She on the other hand was PSYCHO. too bad, she was gorgeous.

This is surprising to you? They are called "Hawks" for a reason you know.

It'll be interesting to see what the reaction is to Khamenei's comments. I get the feeling emotions are running to deep for this to go away just because he said so.

Yeah, there's too much pent up frustration, specially fueled by the killing of some of the protesters this week. It seems like tomorrow could be a particularly violent day.