So, the GOP needs 10 seats to take over the Senate. Since I find myself with a little free time, here's my write-up on the chances of that happening.
Definite Republican Pick-ups
North Dakota: The last poll (August) had Hoeven up 44 points on Potter. The biggest slam dunk on the map.
Arkansas: Boozman is up an average of 25 points on Lincoln who is lucky to crack 30% in most polls.
Indiana: Coats is up double digits on Ellsworth, who can't get out of the mid-30s.
Leaning towards Republican Pick-up
Pennsylvania: Toomey has led Sestak in every poll since Quinnipiac found a 43-43 tie in mid July. Quinnipiac's newest poll has Toomey at 50%. The last time Sestak led was a May poll from R2000/Daily Kos.
Toss Ups
Nevada: Reid got a gift when the Republicans nominated Angle. This went from a likely pick-up to a toss up. Virtually every poll in the last two months has this race within the margin of error. Angle is up by a point in the most recent two polls.
West Virginia: Robert Byrd's old seat was supposed to stay blue with the popular Governor Manchin tossing his hat in the race. But PPP just released a shock poll giving Raese a 3% lead. Manchin is up 7% in a contemporaneous Rasmussen poll.
California: Boxer is favored here. But Fiorina has made it a race. Other than a PPP poll that gave Boxer an 8% lead last week, every recent poll of likely voters puts Boxer's lead within the margin of error.
Wisconsin: Feingold wasn't supposed to be vulnerable. Since winning the Republican nomination, Johnson has jumped out to a large lead in 2 polls. Rasmussen has him up 7% on Feingold; PPP has him up 11%. Both polls have Johnson over 50%. A post-primary bump? Or a sign that this race is slipping away from Feingold?
Illinois: Obama's old seat is up for grabs. Kirk and Giannoulias have traded small leads for the last few months. Kirk has a 3-4% lead in this month's two polls. Like Nevada, voters don't seem thrilled with either candidate.
Washington: Dino Rossi is giving it another go against Patty Murray. Rossi led in some polls last month. But this race seems to be getting away from him. Murray is opening up a decent lead and looks like she will hold onto her seat.
Colorado: The two most recent polls give Bennet a 3% lead and Buck a 4% lead. Could go either way.
Connecticut could still be in play if it's a really bad year for the Democrats. Delaware and even New York (Gillibrand's seat) are still a bit vulnerable under the right conditions.
As far as pick-ups for the Democrats, Florida, Ohio, and Missouri have broken for the Republican candidates. And the Republicans dodged a bullet when Kelly Ayotte squeaked out a win in New Hampshire. She should hold that seat pretty easily now. The latest poll in Alaska seems to indicate that Murkowski won't spoil it for Miller in Alaska. Should be another Republican hold.
So, assuming no Democratic pick-ups, the Republicans can only lose one of the 7 toss-ups and still regain the majority. Unlikely, but not impossible, as each of those races is looking like it will be decided by turnout. The Democrats better start trying to close that enthusiasm gap.
Definite Republican Pick-ups
North Dakota: The last poll (August) had Hoeven up 44 points on Potter. The biggest slam dunk on the map.
Arkansas: Boozman is up an average of 25 points on Lincoln who is lucky to crack 30% in most polls.
Indiana: Coats is up double digits on Ellsworth, who can't get out of the mid-30s.
Leaning towards Republican Pick-up
Pennsylvania: Toomey has led Sestak in every poll since Quinnipiac found a 43-43 tie in mid July. Quinnipiac's newest poll has Toomey at 50%. The last time Sestak led was a May poll from R2000/Daily Kos.
Toss Ups
Nevada: Reid got a gift when the Republicans nominated Angle. This went from a likely pick-up to a toss up. Virtually every poll in the last two months has this race within the margin of error. Angle is up by a point in the most recent two polls.
West Virginia: Robert Byrd's old seat was supposed to stay blue with the popular Governor Manchin tossing his hat in the race. But PPP just released a shock poll giving Raese a 3% lead. Manchin is up 7% in a contemporaneous Rasmussen poll.
California: Boxer is favored here. But Fiorina has made it a race. Other than a PPP poll that gave Boxer an 8% lead last week, every recent poll of likely voters puts Boxer's lead within the margin of error.
Wisconsin: Feingold wasn't supposed to be vulnerable. Since winning the Republican nomination, Johnson has jumped out to a large lead in 2 polls. Rasmussen has him up 7% on Feingold; PPP has him up 11%. Both polls have Johnson over 50%. A post-primary bump? Or a sign that this race is slipping away from Feingold?
Illinois: Obama's old seat is up for grabs. Kirk and Giannoulias have traded small leads for the last few months. Kirk has a 3-4% lead in this month's two polls. Like Nevada, voters don't seem thrilled with either candidate.
Washington: Dino Rossi is giving it another go against Patty Murray. Rossi led in some polls last month. But this race seems to be getting away from him. Murray is opening up a decent lead and looks like she will hold onto her seat.
Colorado: The two most recent polls give Bennet a 3% lead and Buck a 4% lead. Could go either way.
Connecticut could still be in play if it's a really bad year for the Democrats. Delaware and even New York (Gillibrand's seat) are still a bit vulnerable under the right conditions.
As far as pick-ups for the Democrats, Florida, Ohio, and Missouri have broken for the Republican candidates. And the Republicans dodged a bullet when Kelly Ayotte squeaked out a win in New Hampshire. She should hold that seat pretty easily now. The latest poll in Alaska seems to indicate that Murkowski won't spoil it for Miller in Alaska. Should be another Republican hold.
So, assuming no Democratic pick-ups, the Republicans can only lose one of the 7 toss-ups and still regain the majority. Unlikely, but not impossible, as each of those races is looking like it will be decided by turnout. The Democrats better start trying to close that enthusiasm gap.




