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2009 Elections

post #1 of 84
10/28/09 at 7:36pm
Thread Starter 
No need for political junkies to wait for 2010. A few high-profile elections are taking place in the East next week.

In New Jersey, Governor Corzine has crawled back into contention and possibly the lead. Latest polls here. Polls seem to be sort of split right now. Two have Christie in the lead, but the latest overlapping Quinnipiac poll has Corzine up 5. Turnout for Democrats will be a huge factor in this one, as will the amount of actual support Daggett gets as the Independent.

In Virginia, it looks like a runaway for Bob McDonnell. He is up on Deeds in double figures in almost every poll.

Also the special election in NY-23 is getting interesting. It's a strong Republican district, but the Democratic candidate Owens has a real shot. The Republicans nominated a center-left candidate. The Conservative Party candidate, Hoffman, has now gotten endorsements from Sarah Palin, Fred Thompson, Limbaugh, Hannity, Beck, Pawlenty, Santorum, DeMint, and other Establishment Republicans. Since then, he has surged and leads in the two latest polls.
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post #2 of 84
10/28/09 at 10:29pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by jvc View Post


Also the special election in NY-23 is getting interesting. It's a strong Republican district, but the Democratic candidate Owens has a real shot. The Republicans nominated a center-left candidate. The Conservative Party candidate, Hoffman, has now gotten endorsements from Sarah Palin, Fred Thompson, Limbaugh, Hannity, Beck, Pawlenty, Santorum, DeMint, and other Establishment Republicans. Since then, he has surged and leads in the two latest polls.
It's pretty clear to me that the GOP is dead set on supporting the crazies and talkies more so than getting back to it's big tent roots.

Fuck Hoffman. He's clown shoes.
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post #3 of 84
10/28/09 at 10:36pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by Pompoussory Estoppel View Post
It's pretty clear to me that the GOP is dead set on supporting the crazies and talkies more so than getting back to it's big tent roots.

Fuck Hoffman. He's clown shoes.
Sure, but while that's going to hurt them nationally, it might work to secure a few governorships and the odd rep or two. They won't feel the worst effects of that track this year.
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post #4 of 84
10/28/09 at 11:06pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by jvc View Post
No need for political junkies to wait for 2010. A few high-profile elections are taking place in the East next week.

In New Jersey, Governor Corzine has crawled back into contention and possibly the lead. Latest polls here. Polls seem to be sort of split right now. Two have Christie in the lead, but the latest overlapping Quinnipiac poll has Corzine up 5. Turnout for Democrats will be a huge factor in this one, as will the amount of actual support Daggett gets as the Independent.
Corzine while being wonderful for civil liberties, has been an absolute disaster in ever other aspect. Seeing that he's closing makes me wish Ed Rollins would make some church visits.

It's not to say that I'm a Christie fan. He's not all that great, but Corzine is just bad news.
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post #5 of 84
10/29/09 at 12:32pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by Schwartz View Post
Sure, but while that's going to hurt them nationally, it might work to secure a few governorships and the odd rep or two. They won't feel the worst effects of that track this year.
If they want to take back power, they've gotta start by boosting the grassroots campaign against the Democrats now by selecting candidates that fit each district's demographics.

You run a moderate Republican in a moderate district and attack the Democrats hard to pick up the seat. You don't select a rightist Republican or a Constitution Party (!) candidate to pick a moderate district. They can't and won't win like that.
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post #6 of 84
10/29/09 at 7:15pm
Thread Starter 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Pompoussory Estoppel View Post
If they want to take back power, they've gotta start by boosting the grassroots campaign against the Democrats now by selecting candidates that fit each district's demographics.

You run a moderate Republican in a moderate district and attack the Democrats hard to pick up the seat. You don't select a rightist Republican or a Constitution Party (!) candidate to pick a moderate district. They can't and won't win like that.
This is what the Democrats did so well in '06 and '08. One or two of the House races featured Democrats who were more conservative than the Republican candidates. This is why they are having all the troubles with the Blue Dogs putting the brakes on their progressive agenda.
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post #7 of 84
10/29/09 at 7:26pm
I'm in a bind because I refuse to vote for Bloomberg since he overturned the people's mandate for term limits, but Bill Thompson is a knucklehead. I'm likely gonna skip the mayoral vote and just go for the other local offices.

I'm one of the few people who voted in the runoff elections. The local NY paper just did a piece outing all the elected officials who didn't go out and vote. NYC lost money holding the run-off and told poll workers to show up at their own risk of not getting paid!

Quote:
Originally Posted by Jcassady View Post
Corzine while being wonderful for civil liberties, has been an absolute disaster in ever other aspect. Seeing that he's closing makes me wish Ed Rollins would make some church visits.

It's not to say that I'm a Christie fan. He's not all that great, but Corzine is just bad news.
My friend is Corzine's campaign manager.
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post #8 of 84
10/29/09 at 7:42pm
I don't live in the state anymore, but I know we have a few Ohio Chewers around here. (Didn't Wehman come from Ohio?) They have a casino gambling initiative on the Ballot (Issue 3) that is complete and utter garbage. One of the most flagrant con jobs I've ever seen pulled on a state, and a near-certain way to further hurt the economy of one of the country's backbone states.
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post #9 of 84
10/29/09 at 8:13pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by Diva View Post
I'm in a bind because I refuse to vote for Bloomberg since he overturned the people's mandate for term limits, but Bill Thompson is a knucklehead. I'm likely gonna skip the mayoral vote and just go for the other local offices.
That’s a funny little conundrum you’ve got there, you’d probably vote for Bloomberg if he hadn’t overturned term limits, but then you couldn’t.
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post #10 of 84
10/29/09 at 8:16pm
Exactly. He'll likely win reelection though, so I'll get his mostly good stance on issues I care about, but have the satisfaction of knowing I didn't give him my vote. Though one could argue I voted by not voting.
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post #11 of 84
10/29/09 at 8:28pm
Probably the only other thing worth noting is Ref. 71 out of Washington and Prop 1 (I think that's the name out of Maine).
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post #12 of 84
10/29/09 at 10:22pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by Diva View Post
My friend is Corzine's campaign manager.
Your friend, who probably is a lovely person, is backing a world class shithead.
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post #13 of 84
10/29/09 at 10:33pm
I will vote for mayor next year in the city, I just don't know who for yet.
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post #14 of 84
10/29/09 at 11:34pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by Jcassady View Post
Your friend, who probably is a lovely person, is backing a world class shithead.
I don't know anything about that, but I do know my friend got Omar from the Wire to back Corzine.
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post #15 of 84
10/30/09 at 11:46am
In my old age, I think I've become a single issue voter... gay marriage. Gah. I'm just not excited about either Christie or Corzine, but Corzine is backing gay marriage, whether it's political or a real turnabout. Will look into the other guys, if just for a moral victory.

But then I also think...I'm moving back to NYC next year (god willing, at least).
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post #16 of 84
10/30/09 at 11:58am
On civil rights, no one can knock Corzine. However the man headed a major financial institution and the state's reaction to the economic collapse was basically "Whaaa Happen?"

I don't see Jersey becoming Alabama in terms of civil rights under Christie (there still is a massively liberal supreme court and a ton of liberal republicans in the assembly). But to have a governor who was an economic Titan totally fail to prep for something that any financial expert could see coming down the turnpike and the solution being..".um...well we can just slash spending or something" is unacceptable.
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post #17 of 84
10/30/09 at 4:26pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by EdHocken View Post
Probably the only other thing worth noting is Ref. 71 out of Washington and Prop 1 (I think that's the name out of Maine).
Ugggh, this had better pass. Speaking of....
*goes to find mail-in ballot*
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post #18 of 84
11/3/09 at 12:34pm
Voted early, sadly not often. Went with Daggett for governor. Has the social stuff of Corzine, and has actually stated some sort of plan for the economy, something Corzine and Christie have only shrugged their shoulders and keep hoping a wizard would fix.
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post #19 of 84
11/3/09 at 3:43pm
Oh ... voter intimidation in NY. Didn't see that comin!

Quote:
Police Called To NY-23 Polling Sites »

By Elizabeth Benjamin

It's getting ugly out there.

I just got off the phone with former state Democratic Chairwoman June O'Neill, who informed me the police had been called to at least two polling sites in St. Lawrence County due to overzealous electioneering (O'Neill called it "voter intimidation") by Doug Hoffman supporters.

"We've gotten reports that people are standing there, covered with Hoffman stickers and yelling anti-choice stuff at voters," said O'Neill, a St. Lawrence native who has been running the party's GOTV effort for Bill Owens in NY-23.


"Apparently, there's some woman claiming to be a commissioner," O'Neill continued. "Commissioner of what, I don't know. She's from Texas, I think, and she won't leave."

"This is not the way we roll in the North Country."

O'Neill also said she had received anecdotal reports of problems at polling sites in Gouverneur, which is Assemblywoman Dede Scozzafava's hometown. But she couldn't immediately confirm this.

I called over to the St. Lawrence Board of Elections and got GOP Elections Commissioner Debbie Pahler on the line. She confirmed that the police indeed had been called, but she downplayed the incident, saying it's "a routine procedure here in the county."

"We had electioneering within the 100-foot polling marker," Phaler said. "It's my understanding that they were asked to leave and wouldn't leave."


"If people are electioneering within the marker and don't stop when we ask them to, our inspectors are instructed to call law enforcement to assist them. I don't think anybody was arrested."
NY Daily News
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post #20 of 84
11/3/09 at 3:48pm
Skipped the mayoral vote, went Working Families Party down the line for the rest. There were two referendum that I knew nothing about. The first was to build a power line in the middle of the Adirondacks. I could see arguments for and against so I left it for more informed voters. The second was about prison reform, which I voted Yes. I figured if the government can exploit prisoners for cheap labor, then not-for-profits and religious groups should be allowed to as well.
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post #21 of 84
11/3/09 at 3:49pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by Diva
The second was about prison reform, which I voted Yes. I figured if the government can exploit prisoners for cheap labor, then not-for-profits and religious groups should be allowed to as well.
You mean they don't already?
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post #22 of 84
11/3/09 at 4:02pm
I voted today. SCORE!
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post #23 of 84
11/3/09 at 4:53pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by Diva View Post
I'm in a bind because I refuse to vote for Bloomberg since he overturned the people's mandate for term limits, but Bill Thompson is a knucklehead. I'm likely gonna skip the mayoral vote and just go for the other local offices.
That's what I did, too, Diva. I hate not voting - I feel it's important, I'm one of those "every vote counts" people. But I refuse to vote for Bloomberg, and Thompson doesn't seem nearly strong enough of a candidate. I just can't feel good about voting for either of them. I feel like this mayoral election is like the 2004 presidential election for me personally - there was no way on this planet I was going to vote for George W, but Kerry was a weak candidate. And for the record, I did get out and vote for Kerry. But this time around, I'll pass.
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post #24 of 84
11/3/09 at 9:01pm
AAACOOOORRRNNN
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post #25 of 84
11/3/09 at 10:07pm
GOP takes back Virginia. Damn, I was hoping 2008 showed a sign that the Falwell/Robert E. Lee side of Virginia was losing power.
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post #26 of 84
11/3/09 at 11:32pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by Rourkefan View Post
GOP takes back Virginia. Damn, I was hoping 2008 showed a sign that the Falwell/Robert E. Lee side of Virginia was losing power.
They showed up. Polls showed Dems/Reps were 1% point off in showing up compared to +6% for Obama. That and Independents went Republican.

And the Dems are losing in NJ as well. Shouldn't that be a no brainer win?

You can blame the Dems for these losses. They had a chance for dramatic change but let the Republicans frame the arguments and gave in at every possible turn in health care.
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post #27 of 84
11/4/09 at 12:53am
Remember, This isn't the mid term elections. Corzine lost because of how freaking corrupt New Jersey. Ironically, he was so rich that he was the one politician who couldn't be bought in the state.

I also think Corzine should get props for banning the death penalty, getting the civil marriage ball rolling in NJ, and for voting against Iraq in 2002.

I also like how this sets up Corey Booker for the nomination to be Jersey governor in 2013. After the documentary, Street Fight, that guy has become a hero of mine.
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post #28 of 84
11/4/09 at 1:06am
Booker would be a great governor, no doubt, but that guy clearly has national aspirations. See also: Jim Webb, who, if he continues to be awesome in the Senate, could easily mount a Presidential run in 2012.

And even though I'm hot/cold on Bloomberg and agree with Diva and Lisa that you shouldn't get to overturn the rules simply because you want to, I'm surprised at how close the mayoral race turned out to be. 51/46 for a popular mayor like Bloomberg should definitely wake him up and he won't pull this stunt in a few years.
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post #29 of 84
11/4/09 at 1:15am
Quote:
Originally Posted by RathBandu View Post
Booker would be a great governor, no doubt, but that guy clearly has national aspirations. See also: Jim Webb, who, if he continues to be awesome in the Senate, could easily mount a Presidential run in 2012.
2012 or 2016? I can't imagine a fairly new democratic senator taking on an incumbent democratic president in this day and age. Especially as a lot of the democratic strategists are now focusing on bringing to light the in-house fighting in the republican party.
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post #30 of 84
11/4/09 at 1:16am
I meant 2016. My brain sucks tonight.
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post #31 of 84
11/4/09 at 1:23am
Yeah, but Booker needs an office above mayor before he can even think about becoming a presidential candidate. 3 years as governor of NJ is plus 7 as mayor of Newark is good enough experience.
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post #32 of 84
11/4/09 at 1:34am
I meant that Booker has his eye on a senate seat, although you're right, Governor plus mayor would do nicely for him. Webb is probably the major front-runner in 2016 -- and in a theoretical universe where Biden has to step aside for health reasons or chooses not to be on the ticket in 2012, I can see Webb being a good choice for VP. I thought he would have made a phenomenal Secretary of Defense or State.
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post #33 of 84
11/4/09 at 1:38am
Bloomberg gets the third term?
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post #34 of 84
11/4/09 at 1:41am
Biden will be 70 in 2012 and 74 in 2016, so he will probably not run after Obama.

Problem with Obama is that we will have to see how much backlash the democrats will receive for having some kind of health care reform pass.

Sort of how the backlash from Vietnam/Medicare paved the way for Nixon
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post #35 of 84
11/4/09 at 1:42am
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tati View Post
Bloomberg gets the third term?
Yes but the election was closer than what was expected
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post #36 of 84
11/4/09 at 1:43am
Yeah, Bloomberg got his third term, Tati, but people were expecting the race to be a lot wider than it turned out to be. And again, I'm not trying to be the only Bloomberg cheerleader around here, but from everything that I read, he was stuck between playing by the rules and abandoning the city during a crucial time. Bloomberg has been, for the most part, a much better mayor than Giuliani. He's made a lot of mistakes and done a lot of things that I disagree with, but I think New York is better off than it was in 2001. And part of it could be that he didn't get a chance to be president, etc., which, hello 2012/2016. But from a historical perspective, New York City's history is filled with characters who have rewritten, or outright broken, the rules for themselves, but also for the good of the city. Like I said. I'm conflicted.
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post #37 of 84
11/4/09 at 1:43am
Yep. And friggin' Vallone for Astoria gets the third, too. Why do we make these rules again if anyone can just overturn them?
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post #38 of 84
11/4/09 at 1:46am
Quote:
Originally Posted by Rourkefan View Post
Yeah, but Booker needs an office above mayor before he can even think about becoming a presidential candidate. 3 years as governor of NJ is plus 7 as mayor of Newark is good enough experience.
That sonnova bitch better at least do two full terms as governor before he throws his hat in the ring, he's great but the last thing we need is a fresh mode of hypocrisy after the slamming Palin got. Granted, Newark ain't Wassila, but even so the pundits and twisters will shit all over him for it and the party.
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post #39 of 84
11/4/09 at 1:48am
Nobody but Christine Todd Whitman got out of the governers mansion after 8 years alive.
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post #40 of 84
11/4/09 at 1:49am
Fuck the right. Booker's not Sarah Palin.
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post #41 of 84
11/4/09 at 1:57am
Glad to see the big results come down the way they did, especially with McDonnell and Christie. Still worried that Hoffman is going to pull it out though. I want a message to be sent to the GOP not to fuck with moderates in the midterms.
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post #42 of 84
11/4/09 at 5:02am
Quote:
Originally Posted by Pompoussory Estoppel View Post
Glad to see the big results come down the way they did, especially with McDonnell and Christie. Still worried that Hoffman is going to pull it out though. I want a message to be sent to the GOP not to fuck with moderates in the midterms.
CNN.com's calling Owen the winner in NY23. Thank Christ.
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post #43 of 84
11/4/09 at 11:01am
Fuck you, Maine!

Quote:
Originally Posted by RathBandu View Post
Yeah, Bloomberg got his third term, Tati, but people were expecting the race to be a lot wider than it turned out to be. And again, I'm not trying to be the only Bloomberg cheerleader around here, but from everything that I read, he was stuck between playing by the rules and abandoning the city during a crucial time.
How arrogant does one have to be to think that they are THE ONLY person to run a city in a time of crisis? I don't buy this excuse at all. Bloomberg has championed some good and some bad policy, but overall I think he's done a good job. But there is no reason he should have overturned term limits the way that he did. If he thought running a third term was necessary, he should have held a special referendum and put it to a vote by the people. The fact that he went behind our backs by cutting deals with the City Council burns, and the fact that he won by such a small margin is a testament that this was not a mandate. If a better candidate had run against Bloomberg, he'd be a goner for sure.
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post #44 of 84
11/4/09 at 11:13am
I agree with you on all of that. I'm just saying that a) I'm not entirely up in arms about it, especially now that it's over, and b) this is the way things have always been done in the city. And being mayor of New York is like being governor of a major industrial state. So yeah, I think arrogance plays a big part of it.
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post #45 of 84
11/4/09 at 11:16am
The overaching story behind Corzines loss is that he really wasn't interested in being governor. Corzine has bigger aspirations and governor did nothing to change the corrupt culture left behind by McGreevey. Further while the social progress was great, the economy was a disaster and he did nothing to prevent or abate the effects when he was a financial genius. It's well established that what was goig on with the housing market was clearly headed for disaster and if the guy who ran Goldman like Corzine just sits there and lets it happen, he's a moron or didnt want to get friends in trouble.

That's unacceptable.

On the other hands, I think everyone will love to see Booker as governor in 2013.

Also sucks that Deeds was about as inspirational as a desk lamp. I voted for the guy, but no one doubted McConnell was going to win for a second.
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post #46 of 84
11/4/09 at 11:16am
Quote:
Originally Posted by RathBandu View Post
b) this is the way things have always been done in the city.
Yet another excuse that I do not abide.
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post #47 of 84
11/4/09 at 11:24am
A dude I know said that Christie's win is a referendum against Obama/Biden and a sign that the tea party movement isn't as crazy as the mainstream media portrayed it and I think my brains are leaking out of my ears.
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post #48 of 84
11/4/09 at 11:28am
Quote:
Originally Posted by Diva View Post
Yet another excuse that I do not abide.
I'm not making an excuse. Election's over. It went down the way it went down, and like I said, I think the 51/46 split, that it was as close as it was for a popular mayor like Bloomberg, is something to cheer about.
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post #49 of 84
11/4/09 at 12:15pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by Diva View Post
Fuck you, Maine!
Lousy fuckin Maine skinheads.

At least Ref 71 out of Washington passed.

Although Booker for Senate could make sense, Lautenberg is as old as dirt.
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post #50 of 84
11/4/09 at 12:20pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by Jake View Post
A dude I know said that Christie's win is a referendum against Obama/Biden and a sign that the tea party movement isn't as crazy as the mainstream media portrayed it and I think my brains are leaking out of my ears.
How did it take a minimum of six years for electoral cycles to fall under the influence of Bush's idiocy, but less than a year for people to turn sour after Obama's solid-yet-unspectacular start? It's like America is just looking for an excuse to go red.
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