I was going to finish the division by division rundown, but short form: I feel sorry for the Orioles and Blue Jays, the NL west looks very competitive, other than the Padres, and I think Philadelphia is the class of the NL with the Braves not far behind.
But, the NL Central, where I have rooting interest.
You have to not be paying attention to pick against the Cardinals. Not that they're invicincible, I don't think Carpenter and Wainwright will pitch as well, Holliday will probably play between how he did in Oakland and how he did for the Cardinals, and they strike me as a thin team. But, they have the best hitter in baseball, the two best pitchers in the division, and LaRussa knows what he's doing. They could stumble, but they are the heavy favorites.
Nearly everything went wrong for the Cubs last year and they still won 83 games. It's certainly not inconceivable that they could bounce back. That said, it's obvious the window is closing fast, as the Cubs are an old team and they're hampered by bad contracts. Even in a down market, Hendry managed to piss away money on a reliever as ordinary as Grabow. Soto has to bounce back. Lilly has to come back sooner. Soriano has to bounce back. They have to get something out of second base. It could happen, but I wouldn't bet on it. Particularly since Lou's giving me every impression of counting down the days to retirement. I expect that the Pinella/Hendry era ends in a whimper.
Are Randy Wolf and Doug Davis the answer? I expect that the Brewers pitching will be better, but the key is good health and getting something out of Bush, Parra, Suppan, and Narveson. Fielder and Braun is one of the best 1 - 2 punches in baseball, but there are some unknowns in the lineup. They're still relatively young, but their system depth at starting pitcher is thin. Could win 90. Could win 75.
The Reds are something of a trendy pick and looking over their lineup, it looks relatively solid. No real blackholes. They have some potential in the pitching staff too. I just can't get on board the idea that Dusty Baker is the guy to get the most out of a young team. Not when he can fall back on (s)crappy veterans at the first sign of struggle. And I don't buy that Dusty really knows how to run a pitching staff. It wouldn't totally surprise me to see them win 83 or 84 games, but I have a hard time picturing more than that.
What's there to say about the Astros? Their farm is bad. Their major league team has holes, despite some stars. And it's hard to see the upside. That Brandon Lyon contract is as silly as any contract signed this winter as well. They could hover around .500, but I can't see them making a run at anything more than that.
The Pirates are going to have another losing year. As long as they play their young guys and perhaps find a diamond or two in the rough that's o.k. The June draft means more to this team than another race to 70 to 75 wins.