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All your euros are belong to Greece. - Page 3

post #101 of 331

Good for them.  Bravo London.  I heard a clip from Parliament and it was chaos. 

post #102 of 331
The pensions deal is actually fairer than people think. Compared with most private sector workers - normal people, not bankers - the public sector had it easy for a long time and they have to adjust to reality. Their old pensions and early retirement would not have been sustainable even without this crisis.

That said, I think the UK government has to do something radical to boost demand NOW. Infrastructure projects and extending the tube are great for the medium to long term but not much use in this shitstorm.

And creating better conditions to lend is no good if people or businesses are not spending money.

As for Germany, worrying about long term moral hazard at a time like this is like writing an exercise regime for a patient during live-saving heart surgery.
post #103 of 331


 

Quote:
Originally Posted by Bluelouboyle View Post

The pensions deal is actually fairer than people think. Compared with most private sector workers - normal people, not bankers - the public sector had it easy for a long time and they have to adjust to reality. Their old pensions and early retirement would not have been sustainable even without this crisis.
 

 

What are you basing this on?  It's something I keep hearing but haven't seen any evidence of.  You realize that public pension funds were suckers to these bankers dumping toxic derivatives rated triple A, right? 

 

 

Quote:
Originally Posted by Bluelouboyle View Post

That said, I think the UK government has to do something radical to boost demand NOW. Infrastructure projects and extending the tube are great for the medium to long term but not much use in this shitstorm.

 

Demand = wages or other compensation, like pensions.  Infrastructure's great too but what you're proposing sounds a little like robbing Peter to pay Paul.

 

 

Quote:
Originally Posted by Bluelouboyle View Post

And creating better conditions to lend is no good if people or businesses are not spending money.
As for Germany, worrying about long term moral hazard at a time like this is like writing an exercise regime for a patient during live-saving heart surgery.

 

Creating better conditions to lend?  Banks haven't had it better over the last decade than they've experienced in a century.  This is another chestnut I keep hearing with ZERO back-up.  The risky atmosphere was something THEY created themselves.  A less risky atmosphere would be for them to be more tightly regulated.

 

As for Greece, there's a black cloud hanging over the world's economy that is toxic investments valued at many more times the world's entire GDP and worth considerably less.  I'm pretty sure Germany's keeping its eye on that cloud in deciding whether to do surgery on one patient's heart. 

post #104 of 331

Its called collateralized debt obligations. Good luck with that world.

post #105 of 331
The Polish foreign minister tells it like it is. I can't believe that people thought this was treason:

http://www.economist.com/blogs/easternapproaches/2011/11/polands-appeal-germany
post #106 of 331

I said it before and I'll say it again. Never mind Greece. What happened happened.

 

But Germany has to finally lead Europe. Due to the Eurozone they made out like bandits. They're still profiting from this crisis. And good for them. Honestly. But they have to take action. The tools exist for the revitalization of Europe. And the only thing stopping us from using them is their crippling fear of inflation and desire to "punish" and "discipline" the errant economies. Now is not the time for accountants to be running things.

post #107 of 331
Yes, inflation is a lot easier to deal with than a deep recession, deflation and the break up of the Euro.
post #108 of 331

It is. Especially inflation you voluntarily induce. A lot of articles link Germany's reluctance to do this to the Weimar Republic period but I cannot fathom how someone could let a stupid historical complex bring a whole continent to the brink of dissolution.  

post #109 of 331
Not sure what to make of this. Not what Greece needs:

http://www.economist.com/blogs/newsbook/2011/11/greek-statistics?fsrc=scn/tw/te/bl/numbersinaction

EURO-ZONE finance ministers meeting today in Brussels are preparing to release Greece’s latest (and much-delayed) tranche of bail-out funding, worth €8 billion ($10.7 billion). But all is not well in the country that kicked off the long-running euro crisis. Andreas Georgiou, the head of Elstat, Greece’s statistics agency, is facing a criminal investigation for allegedly fiddling the public-finance books.

If the investigation finds that the state was damaged by such actions, Mr Georgiou could be charged with "breach of faith", a crime that carries a potential life sentence. On December 12th he will appear before a prosecutor to provide evidence. He denies the allegation. "Unfortunately, in Greece statistics is a combat sport," he told the Financial Times.
post #110 of 331

This story broke months ago and isn't really that earth shattering. It's funny actually. He's accused of fiddling with the stats to make them seem worse. But it's by just one person and I haven't heard of any concrete proof being presented.

 

This is the least thing Greeks have to fear. This mostly produces bitter laughter here, rather than concern. 

post #111 of 331
Quote:
Originally Posted by stelios View Post

I cannot fathom how someone could let a stupid historical complex bring a whole continent to the brink of dissolution.  



To be fair, I'd call it an entirely understandable historical complex.

post #112 of 331
Quote:
Originally Posted by stelios View Post

I said it before and I'll say it again. Never mind Greece. What happened happened.

 

But Germany has to finally lead Europe. Due to the Eurozone they made out like bandits. They're still profiting from this crisis. And good for them. Honestly. But they have to take action. The tools exist for the revitalization of Europe. And the only thing stopping us from using them is their crippling fear of inflation and desire to "punish" and "discipline" the errant economies. Now is not the time for accountants to be running things.


Agree.  Germany has long-standing protections in place for its middle and working classes, which a lot of these economies don't have. 

 

post #113 of 331

So, evidently Italy's being run by bankers now and they're going to ruin that beautiful country by making savage cuts to its social safety net and allowing monopolies to come in and hoover up all the small businesses.  Great. 

post #114 of 331
Quote:
Originally Posted by yt View Post

So, evidently Italy's being run by bankers now and they're going to ruin that beautiful country by making savage cuts to its social safety net and allowing monopolies to come in and hoover up all the small businesses.  Great. 



Whats a bit of shock doctrine between friends eh?

post #115 of 331
Quote:
Originally Posted by The Rain Dog View Post

Whats a bit of shock doctrine between friends eh?


Indeed.  It is amazing to see this play out over and over.  I've been to Italy a couple of times and feel like they have the secret for good living.  It kills me that that's going to be thrown away in the rush to turn it into just another asset for corporate masters of the universe. 

post #116 of 331

The west is done yt. We're just circling the drain at this point.

post #117 of 331

No, I don't think so.  It's some kind of tipping point but a lot more people are wise to things like the Shock Doctrine than they were even a year ago.  And the Occupy movement in the U.S. and the demonstrations in Greece and the UK show me that the people aren't going to let their countries be sold like this.  The people outnumber the technocrats and plutocrats.  Never forget that.

post #118 of 331

Oh for sure, but I'm simply looking at the tides of history, it isn't like the west is going to somehow be exempt from the patterns of empires and cultures that have risen and fallen in times past and we're displaying all the signs of a culture in rapid decline.

 

We're beyond tinkering and small fixes now, the system will actually have to collapse completely before we can start working towards something better.

 

There will be revolution, not evolution.

 

It won't be fun, but it'll be what we need.

post #119 of 331

Not to get all crotchety, but why are people in the West so willing to write off their own civilization so quickly? I swear even pro-Democracy activists in China don't say "yeah the whole Goddamn thing has to be ripped apart!". Are people in the US/UK so damn lazy they'd rather see their society crumble vs. getting off their asses for one minute? Hell at least the Tea partiers and OWS people (rank and file) actually give a shit and get out there and DO something.

post #120 of 331

Because I truly believe the system is broken beyond repair cylon, I'm ready for the next stage.

post #121 of 331

Even if the next stage includes anal rape and Cannibalism?

post #122 of 331
Quote:
Originally Posted by Cylon Baby View Post

Even if the next stage includes anal rape and Cannibalism?



Eh, omelettes, eggs etc.

post #123 of 331

Rain Dog, I presume you live in a completely self sufficient bunker? With it's own power supply that will never break down? Grow your own food, do you? Have weapons to defend yourself? No need for any kind of medical assistance, be it for an illness, poor eyesight etc? And plan to never acquire any condition that requires a Doctor with access to modern facilities? And you get along with all your neighbors? And your bunker is isolated and far away from any potential unpleasantness?

 

See, with all due respect, when people casually spout off about how they want to see the world burn, I don't think they ever think of what that actually means. They don't think if it in terms, of, not being able to get all the basic necessities that they take for granted (like CHUD!). And they assume that any violence will happen to other people: you know, those "1%ers".

 

But it won't happen that way. Best case scenario is we end up living under a Chinese Hegemony where speech and thought are circumscribed, and you need a permit to move out of your village. Worst case, you end up living under a radical religious regime (Christian or Islamic, who cares?) that will behead you for Incorrect Thoughts.

 

Sorry to forgo comedy in this post: but this casual dismissal/disregard for 2,000 years of civilization just bugs the hell out of me. It ain't perfect by any means, but it's the best thing going.

post #124 of 331

It's not 2000 years of civilization, western civilization really formed as we know it around the renaissance.

 

Civilizations, cultures rise and fall. If they can't get out of their own way they kinda deserve to, that's evolution. It's not going to be pleasant or pretty, it'll be traumatic and horrible, but it will be a scenario we have brought upon ourselves through rampant consumption, selfishness, greed and an inability on our behalf to not see the canary that's been dead in the coal mine for years. It's nice that you see more to salvage here than I do cylon but I truly believe at this stage the only way we as a species are going to get ourselves and our priorities in order is for a lot more than attempting to maintain the status quo or tinker with the window dressing. The status quo is what got us here. It doesn't work anymore. We need to rebuild from the ground up, we need to work out whats important again.

 

I'm sorry if I seem a bit flippant cylon, but I've come to this conclusion over many years and any emotional resonance like despair or depression regarding it dried up long ago.

post #125 of 331

Well I'm still in the "anger" phase. I just see a system that could work if people would just act with a hint of ethics and restraint. Now you might  argue that this system has "bred" that out out of the current generation. And looking around me I'd have a hard time arguing that.

 

But consider if Obama, for one example, simply fulfilled one campaign promise and actually funded the SEC and appointed someone like Eliot Spitzer, instead of making a few comments about "Wall Street Fat Cats" (and even that got the Bankers all in a tizzy). That is one single policy decision that, IMO, would do more to solve this crisis than all the bailouts combined. Because suddenly people would see that they would be held responsible for their actions, that they had to conduct business in a way that engenders trust instead of outright fraud, etc.

 

And again, when I consider the known alternatives to what we in the US, UK and EU enjoy, I'm frankly appalled and terrified.

post #126 of 331
Quote:
Originally Posted by Cylon Baby View Post

Well I'm still in the "anger" phase. I just see a system that could work if people would just act with a hint of ethics and restraint. Now you might  argue that this system has "bred" that out out of the current generation. And looking around me I'd have a hard time arguing that.

 

But consider if Obama, for one example, simply fulfilled one campaign promise and actually funded the SEC and appointed someone like Eliot Spitzer, instead of making a few comments about "Wall Street Fat Cats" (and even that got the Bankers all in a tizzy). That is one single policy decision that, IMO, would do more to solve this crisis than all the bailouts combined. Because suddenly people would see that they would be held responsible for their actions, that they had to conduct business in a way that engenders trust instead of outright fraud, etc.

 

And again, when I consider the known alternatives to what we in the US, UK and EU enjoy, I'm frankly appalled and terrified.



Your working on the premise that Obama is somehow separate to that system, that a man bankrolled by major financial institutions will point to the very hand that feeds him and go in for a bite.

 

That's it tho cylon, it's bigger than Obama and the US, we're talking about unfettered capitalism bleeding the world dry and the very people we look to in the west to solve the problem are the very same people who have a vested interest in keeping this scenario the way it is.

 

No, there's no sleight correction of course that will get us back on track - we're off the map here matey, here be monsters - and they're us.

 

If you're still at anger you certainly have a few more stages of grief to go and I don't envy you any of them. Slowly, as your idealism dies and you see that people won't get out of their own way to save themselves - in fact will actively fight to maintain the current broken system, won't act 'with a hint of ethics or restraint', happily buying, eating, and distracting themselves from the misery of a society that says buying crap you don't need will feed your souls, you'll move into a kind of dull acceptance.

 

Next of course is getting to the point of looking forward to what comes after - I'm not talking about the horrible twenty or so years of war famine, disease and a general rebalancing of our species and its relationship to the world and everything else on it - I'm talking about what comes after, when we may actually have learned something from almost sending ourselves extinct.

post #127 of 331

Doubt you or I would be alive to see it. And it's not necessarily the case that we won't go extinct.

post #128 of 331

"But it won't happen that way. Best case scenario is we end up living under a Chinese Hegemony where speech and thought are circumscribed, and you need a permit to move out of your village."

 

If it's any consolation, China is incrementally changing whether the authorities like it or not. People are speaking out and microblogging and The Internet in general can't be completely blocked, we're all finding out about things that in the past we never would have. There's a long, long way to go yet but change is being made to happen and the really old ways are dead.

post #129 of 331
Quote:
Originally Posted by Cylon Baby View Post

Doubt you or I would be alive to see it. And it's not necessarily the case that we won't go extinct.



Oh we absolutely will at some point. That's a certainty. Surely from our point of view what should matter is the how and why.

post #130 of 331
Quote:
Originally Posted by Shan View Post

"But it won't happen that way. Best case scenario is we end up living under a Chinese Hegemony where speech and thought are circumscribed, and you need a permit to move out of your village."

 

If it's any consolation, China is incrementally changing whether the authorities like it or not. People are speaking out and microblogging and The Internet in general can't be completely blocked, we're all finding out about things that in the past we never would have. There's a long, long way to go yet but change is being made to happen and the really old ways are dead.


You can't build a thriving capitalist middle class free to buy what they want and not expect them to start asking why they're not free to do and say other things. It's inevitable.

post #131 of 331
Quote:
Originally Posted by The Rain Dog View Post


You can't build a thriving capitalist middle class free to buy what they want and not expect them to start asking why they're not free to do and say other things. It's inevitable.



Well yes, exactly. What I think I was going to say in my next post on the subject but probably better than I would have.

post #132 of 331
Quote:
Originally Posted by The Rain Dog View Post


You can't build a thriving capitalist middle class free to buy what they want and not expect them to start asking why they're not free to do and say other things. It's inevitable.



Hence, the elite's utterly freaked out reaction to the '60s, when the American middle class was at its height, and the boomerang effect in the '80s, when the realized they couldn't fight the '60s protesters but they could buy them out.  Reagan's "me first"/"greed is good" mantra spoke directly to their id.  It all goes in cycles.  If China follows the pattern, they're in the expansion of the 1950s and we won't see a massive uprising until the kids of this era grow into young adults and stand up to authority.  In the US, we're about in the early '30s when people were getting really desperate and FDR was hamstrung by a divided congress and conservative narrative. 

post #133 of 331

A thriving middle class is the thorn in the side of every enemy of democracy, whether they live at the far right or the far left side of the political spectrum. Which is why they are the first ones to get attacked whenever there's a power grab. Whether it's the Bolsheviks going after the bourgeoisie after 1917 or like now when the middle class is by force relegated to the working poor, you can always tell when an abnormal redistribution of power is being cooked up.

post #134 of 331

Jesus Christ, Rain Dog. And amen to Cylon Baby. The "let the corrupt system burn" attitude is just laziness, ignorance, and decadence under a different name. The idea that the only two options are utopian prosperity or a post-apocalyptic hellscape, and if you can't have one you should actively root for the other, is deeply insane and ignores the human cost or revolutionary talk.

 

If you want a historical counter-argument, look at the British Empire. They declined. They weren't eating each other in the streets after the Suez crisis. In fact, culturally they came out of that better than they went in.

 

The apocalypse Rain Dog is foreseeing is probably going to take the form of the loss of American dominance in the world while China takes over. That has its good points and its bad points, but if the US goes through a repeat of the postwar years, with America in the role of Britain and China in the role of America, I'm failing to see how that's such a terrible thing.

post #135 of 331

Yeah some of this teenage apocalyptic rhetoric is a bit embarrassing, especially delivered in this kind of aloof 'one day you'll understand' tone. 'The west has to fall eventually cos: lol history'.

 

"The West" isn't a singular entity, a big ship that's either going to sink or swim. Like Prankster says, the end of the British empire wasn't the end of Britain, it was just the transition of one complex arrangement of political and economic strength to another. We're most likely heading for another transition of some kind, but treating everything in sweeping black and white terms is boiling an incredibly complicated situation into a tidy storybook narrative.

 

About the only thing I could see triggering some kind of true 'fall' on the scale being talked about here is if the world runs out of key natural resources without countries having prepared their economies and infrastructure to deal with it, though even there I can't say I'm informed enough to confidently guess exactly what would happen.

post #136 of 331

I have to say that Rain Dog has some unusual allies. Check this out:

 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nI-BIVWlc7A

 

Porter Stansberry runs an Investment newsletter service; he's about as Libertarian as you can find. And, he predicted Civil unrest in Europe and the US in 2011, due to the ongoing financial crises.

post #137 of 331
Quote:
Originally Posted by The Prankster View Post
... if the US goes through a repeat of the postwar years, with America in the role of Britain and China in the role of America, I'm failing to see how that's such a terrible thing.


Am I misreading this? You think America's postwar relationship to their close ally Britain can somehow work out dynamically the same as the US relationship to their superpower rival China?

 

Also how is China ascending better than the US declining? Nobody thinks the US is an angel but surely China's human rights record is at least an order of magnitude worse.

post #138 of 331
Quote:
Originally Posted by The Prankster View Post

The apocalypse Rain Dog is foreseeing is probably going to take the form of the loss of American dominance in the world while China takes over. That has its good points and its bad points, but if the US goes through a repeat of the postwar years, with America in the role of Britain and China in the role of America, I'm failing to see how that's such a terrible thing.



I'm thinking more oil becoming scarce and the massive shifts in power, social order, population figures and the inevitable resource wars that will bring. I'm not trying to be Chicken fuckin Little here. The tides of history are moving fast right now and we're all caught in the current. It's bigger than most of us and the few best and brightest who could rise to the challenge to steer us to better waters are either no longer listened to, aren't listening to the better angels of their own natures or are actively conspiring to make things worse. 

 

Climate is shifting and with each new scientific model windows on how fast things are happening get smaller, and yet the leaders of the world who have become more interested in following 24 hour news cycles, poll results and thinking no further than the next election cycle talk in circles and leave the hard decisions for 'the next guy'. Meanwhile these same 'leaders' are essentially bought and sold by the lobbyists of the free marketeer Chicago Boy acolytes and their sovereign corporations answerable to essentially no one, and this devils marriage has led us down the path of a prolonged economic crisis that has changed the social class structures of a number of countries as the gap between rich and poor widens and good people go to the wall while no one goes to jail - in fact they get rewarded for their destruction.

 

It's started happening now and no one with the power to make a difference is learning anything. The old ways are too entrenched, too many people are too married and invested in them to change even as the iceberg looms. This is a cycle of history much bigger than referencing the last hundred years as a reference point. 

 

I don't mean to be the Sommerset to a lot of Mills' around here, but I honestly believe we're coming into a more epic and human race-affecting time than just seeing the shifting of who's the dominant superpower. 

 

Those old ways. Ways of thinking, ways of structuring society, it's economics and power bases are all coming to an end point. They don't work anymore. The system that demands infinite growth is finally hitting the reality of a world of finite space and resources. "The god damn plane, has crashed into the mountain" as the Big Lebowski would say. 

 

This won't be the end of us tho, it'll be the transition to something entirely new. We'll survive, we're plucky and if we go through enough trauma we may at least learn something for a generation or two, maybe even more. Thing is we've got some big lessons to learn, some major core ways of thinking to change and it'll most probably take a pretty severe global trauma on our species for us to learn some hard truths.

 

 



Quote:
Originally Posted by Paul C View Post

About the only thing I could see triggering some kind of true 'fall' on the scale being talked about here is if the world runs out of key natural resources without countries having prepared their economies and infrastructure to deal with it, though even there I can't say I'm informed enough to confidently guess exactly what would happen.



Bingo. Sorry if I'm a bit too teenage for you in my estimations.


Edited by The Rain Dog - 12/6/11 at 3:37pm
post #139 of 331

I think Cylon's exactly right about getting up off our collective butts and acting rather than foretelling the fall of western civilization.  The people of Wisconsin looked doomed until they stood up and said no.  Americans are starting to wake up with Occupy Wall Street (and no matter what a lot of misanthropes on the left say, they weren't able to change the narrative but OWS was), occupying foreclosed homes and smartening up about the lies that keep bad policies afloat.  Hopefully, we'll all continue to be pissed off about these same old greedy a-holes who always hijack the system to benefit themselves.  It has happened over and over throughout history and can't last because people are finally starting to get wise to it.  This is how the cycle goes. 

post #140 of 331

This cycle you mention yt is crashing up against a much larger and more unprecedented one tho in the form of the drying up of a resource our entire global way of life is built upon combined with rampant climate change not seen in at least a millenia, if not as far back as the end of the last ice age.

 

This is not 'business as usual' and I'm sorry but I don't think people beginning to mobilize at this point is going to turn the entire weight of whats happening around in time to avert a major transition for our species. Again tho, these are important lessons our species needs to learn even if we have to learn them the hard way.

post #141 of 331

Climate change and water scarcity are massive issues and the ship is moving way to fast in the wrong direction and seems impossible to derail, I'll give you that.  But in terms of the economic cycle, yes, it's global, but why shouldn't it follow the same cycle as it has throughout recent history?  It's not like people are protesting in the UK and nowhere else.  The world's poor, middle and working classes are finally starting to see that we're all in this together.  Wisconsin was in solidarity with Cairo, which was in solidarity with Occupy Wall Street.  People in wealthy nations had it too good for too long and have been painfully complacent over the last incredibly destructive four decades and the elite class has gotten used to idiotic, complacent masses who will put up with almost anything if they get their piece of the pie.  Now, the light switch has been turned on and the looting that some of us have been ranting about for the last decade or two is fully exposed, and they're not denying it.  They're continuing to churn out this BS about trickle down economics and job creators, etc.  But it's not working.  This is why Frank Luntz is freaked out. 

 

So, I'll give you climate change and water scarcity.  These are like tsunamis coming toward us with everyone not seeing or pretending they don't see.  But the economic stranglehold of the global elite is at least exposed, and awareness is half the battle.  I think in terms of the legalized looting these f***ers have managed to bring about is following the same cycle as we've seen every 80 years or so. 

post #142 of 331
Quote:
Originally Posted by yt View Post

Climate change and water scarcity are massive issues and the ship is moving way to fast in the wrong direction and seems impossible to derail, I'll give you that.  But in terms of the economic cycle, yes, it's global, but why shouldn't it follow the same cycle as it has throughout recent history?  It's not like people are protesting in the UK and nowhere else.  The world's poor, middle and working classes are finally starting to see that we're all in this together.  Wisconsin was in solidarity with Cairo, which was in solidarity with Occupy Wall Street.  People in wealthy nations had it too good for too long and have been painfully complacent over the last incredibly destructive four decades and the elite class has gotten used to idiotic, complacent masses who will put up with almost anything if they get their piece of the pie.  Now, the light switch has been turned on and the looting that some of us have been ranting about for the last decade or two is fully exposed, and they're not denying it.  They're continuing to churn out this BS about trickle down economics and job creators, etc.  But it's not working.  This is why Frank Luntz is freaked out. 

 

So, I'll give you climate change and water scarcity.  These are like tsunamis coming toward us with everyone not seeing or pretending they don't see.  But the economic stranglehold of the global elite is at least exposed, and awareness is half the battle.  I think in terms of the legalized looting these f***ers have managed to bring about is following the same cycle as we've seen every 80 years or so. 


 

Water and maybe even more importantly oil. When the oil runs dry the whole economic system of the entire globe, with all its corruptions and inequalities, completely collapses - and no one is seriously putting anything in place now to replace that when it does. The eruption of global conflict that will come from that will be something not seen in a century if not longer. People may be turning around and finally asking the right questions (which don't get me wrong is wonderful and inspiring, I agree) but they're telling people to blow the candle out while the house burns down around their ears. It's important, it's ridiculously overdue but I think we've already reached the tipping point. Passed it maybe.

post #143 of 331

I don't think oil is going to be as big of a problem as you do.  Other nations, particularly China and India, are already pouring money into research for alternative forms of energy.  The US could be a leader in this field but Big Oil and Big Coal have too much of a stranglehold on politicians and the media; they have used their outsize power to restrict progress so thoroughly that we're practically exactly as we were 100 years ago.  Again, mass awareness of how the energy industry manages this incredible hat trick could help break their stranglehold.  And if the wealthy nations could get their act together, the third world nations would eventually follow.  And don't even get me started on nuclear energy--it is a dead end.

post #144 of 331

See it seems you're just pleased and optimistic that the ship might move at all - I'm pretty convinced it won;t be able to move fast enough once the course correction gets instigated.

 

...if that makes sense?

 

I don't think we're that much at odds, you're just a little more hopeful than I am I guess. For what it's worth, I hope you're right.

post #145 of 331
Quote:
Originally Posted by yt View Post

I don't think oil is going to be as big of a problem as you do.  Other nations, particularly China and India, are already pouring money into research for alternative forms of energy.  The US could be a leader in this field but Big Oil and Big Coal have too much of a stranglehold on politicians and the media; they have used their outsize power to restrict progress so thoroughly that we're practically exactly as we were 100 years ago.  Again, mass awareness of how the energy industry manages this incredible hat trick could help break their stranglehold.  And if the wealthy nations could get their act together, the third world nations would eventually follow.  And don't even get me started on nuclear energy--it is a dead end.



Peak Oil is a notion that's been debunked. The issue is that more and more processing and technology are required to get to existing oil reserves, be it via Deep Water drilling, Shael oil, Frakking etc. And all of those options have near and long term environmental impacts.

 

On the good side, Solar energy is becoming more cost effective by the day, Wind Power is being implemented all over the place, and investment in all types of alternative energy is ongoing.

post #146 of 331

No, it makes sense.  It is urgent and a lot of people in charge seem unwilling to deal with how urgent it is.  But I have kids who are going to live in this world.  I can't afford to be fatalistic about it.  I have a cousin who believes the end is nigh and is completely prepared, totally off the grid, fully stocked, with fuel stashed, etc.  I can't look at it like that.  I believe we'll change it, but it will happen from the bottom up.  The money is too strong at the top for any real top-down solution to form.  The consequences of climate change and water hoarding are being felt everywhere, so we all have that in common (except George W. Bush, who has invested in aquifer-rich property in South America). 

post #147 of 331

See maybe the kid equation makes the biggest difference yt. I'm not interested in having any - not least of which because of what I believe is on its way.

 

I don't wish our species ill, we just need to learn some very hard lessons and learn them pretty soon. I welcome that intellectual evolution - that doesn't stop me watching my 7 year old niece and nephew playing in the backyard and having my heart hurt when I worry about the inevitable trauma those lessons will bring.

post #148 of 331

 

Quote:
Originally Posted by The Rain Dog View Post

Bingo. Sorry if I'm a bit too teenage for you in my estimations.


Oh I was just being a snarky fuck. On the resource/environmental side of things I feel pretty much the same. I was just thinking myself about how the world is scrambling to get over the global recession, but even if they succeed they might just be delaying the inevitable. Maybe a true depression sooner rather than later would be better in the long run if it gave everyone the motivation to restructure ourselves into a more sustainable society while we still have the time and resources to plan ahead and make a proper go of it. But if there's one aspect of human nature that modern history has been hammering home again and again it's our willingness to keep doing whatever makes us most comfortable, even if deep down we all know full well it can't last and we'll regret it in the end.

post #149 of 331
Quote:
Originally Posted by Paul C View Post

 


Oh I was just being a snarky fuck. On the resource/environmental side of things I feel pretty much the same. I was just thinking myself about how the world is scrambling to get over the global recession, but even if they succeed they might just be delaying the inevitable. Maybe a true depression sooner rather than later would be better in the long run if it gave everyone the motivation to restructure ourselves into a more sustainable society while we still have the time and resources to plan ahead and make a proper go of it. But if there's one aspect of human nature that modern history has been hammering home again and again it's our willingness to keep doing whatever makes us most comfortable, even if deep down we all know full well it can't last and we'll regret it in the end.


We're the boiled frog in the saucepan - all comfortable in our water pot as the temperature goes up and up and up not realizing we're slowly burning alive.

 

Yep, the occupy movement, the euro financial crisis, GFC 1, GFC 2 Electric Boogaloo - it's all just us dancing around trying to prop up a system of blind mindless consumerism and waste that no longer works, which even if we do manage to shake out into some fairer arrangement for everyone, won't stop the global scientific realities of the planets climate drastically changing or major resources running so low as to be catastrophic and it doesn't fix the fact that the planet has a completely unsustainable population based on finite resources that are running thin.

 

The system yt wants to see fixed incrementally from the ground up IS the problem, 'fixing' it will simply make that problem continue - while scientific reality crashes down on our species face.

post #150 of 331
Quote:
Originally Posted by The Rain Dog View Post


The system yt wants to see fixed incrementally from the ground up IS the problem, 'fixing' it will simply make that problem continue - while scientific reality crashes down on our species face.



I don't agree.  ANY system is susceptible to the same evils.  There is no system that can be put in place that will be impervious to corruption, unless you want to go back to hunter-gatherer indigenous cultures, and that's not going to happen to us.  Democracy has the built-in ability to be repaired as it's corrupted, but it can never rest on its laurels, which unfortunately is what societies have been doing since Reagan, Thatcher et al told everybody it was okay to be a "me first" society.  People are getting wise to the source of the corruption and what can be done to scour it out.  It's not going to be easy -- it took forty years to get to this place -- but it's do-able. 

 

Overpopulation is a direct result of innovation, and the unending urge to expand economies, lengthen the work day, globalize trade, etc.  This is going to be much harder to untangle and correct, but it will happen by necessity.  The world's most vulnerable are going to suffer first while the "haves" (even the modest haves) look the other way, and that's the problem.  But the pain is starting to be shared by rich nations where climate change is concerned.  Australia has gotten it.  The US has gotten it.  Europe has gotten it.  Japan has been dealt a catastrophic blow.  All of this destruction and horror is forcing the people of rich nations to really internalize what's going on rather than just the people of sub-Saharan Africa and Indonesia.  I think it's going to have an effect. 

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