Here's what I find so funny.   After a pretty handy victory in 2010, there are still no GOP candidates ready to take down Obama in 2012.   The latest proof?   The first scheduled debate for the 2012 GOP Presidential Debate has been CANCELLED DUE TO LACK OF CANDIDATES!

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2011/03/30/republican-presidential-debate-postponed-nbc-politico_n_842530.html

I just find this so funny.   All this apocalyptic talk about a second term for Obama and nobody steps up to stop him?  My guess is that the potential candidates have done some polling and found out they'd be Walter Mondale'd in 2012 because while their positions are popular with the base, they aren't so much with swing voters.   I'm going to assume that whoever runs in 2012 in the General will be a long time respected Republican who wants a swan song to their career.   In other words, I see Newt Gingrich being the Bob Dole of 2012.

McCain should go crazy, denounce all the idiots in the party and make one last kamikaze run with Lieberman as his VP.

Quote:

Originally Posted by dynamotv 

Here's what I find so funny.   After a pretty handy victory in 2010, there are still no GOP candidates ready to take down Obama in 2012.   The latest proof?   The first scheduled debate for the 2012 GOP Presidential Debate has been CANCELLED DUE TO LACK OF CANDIDATES!

 

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2011/03/30/republican-presidential-debate-postponed-nbc-politico_n_842530.html

 

 

 

I just find this so funny.   All this apocalyptic talk about a second term for Obama and nobody steps up to stop him?  My guess is that the potential candidates have done some polling and found out they'd be Walter Mondale'd in 2012 because while their positions are popular with the base, they aren't so much with swing voters.   I'm going to assume that whoever runs in 2012 in the General will be a long time respected Republican who wants a swan song to their career.   In other words, I see Newt Gingrich being the Bob Dole of 2012.

There is no advantage to becoming a 2012 Presidential candidate right now. The convention isn't until next August and there are a lot of world events that can happen between now and then (see, Libya, Egypt, Japan, etc..) and they would be swarmed with media locking them into a position which would be used against them in a campaign run. Politically, it's smarter to run several months from now.. one misstep in the early months could cost them a shot not only at the Presidency but the GOP nomination. 2010 gave a lot of cautionary tales, see Nevada and Delaware as prime examples with Tea Party candidates using off the cuff remarks to lampoon legitimate candidates.
 

I guess we all got a little spoiled after the '08 presidential election.   For political junkies, it's like getting an extra 12 episodes of Lost or The Walking Dead in their season.  Even though talk radio and Fox News predict a Republican sweep, I have to wonder if the reality is more akin to the 1996 race where the GOP candidate was chosen to fall on their sword in order to keep the big players intact for the next run.  This is why the top names are has-beens with shady records and not the "superstars" like Chris Christie who might have some crossover appeal.

That's why I think this next election will have Newt Gingrich as the nominee.   He's paid his dues, he's at the end of his political career, and he's expendable.   The real players are waiting until 2016 because who wants "losing to Obama" on their resume?

There's currently legislation going through the NC Senate to define marriage in the state constitution as between a man and a woman, and that the only legally recognized partnership will be marriage between a man and a woman. FUCK THIS BULLSHIT! If it passes through the Senate, it will be on the ballot in 2012. And I have to say I'm not very hopeful for it being struck down. North Carolina is a backward enough state to just vote this thing into law by a big margin.

With everything going on in the world and in this country, how can this kind of ideological foot-stamping be considered serious?  

Quote:

Originally Posted by DJ Dylan 

There's currently legislation going through the NC Senate to define marriage in the state constitution as between a man and a woman, and that the only legally recognized partnership will be marriage between a man and a woman. FUCK THIS BULLSHIT! If it passes through the Senate, it will be on the ballot in 2012. And I have to say I'm not very hopeful for it being struck down. North Carolina is a backward enough state to just vote this thing into law by a big margin.

With the California Prop. 8 appeal looking to get struck down, and the DoJ no longer enforcing DoMA, there's a good chance this law will get stuck down as unconstitutional by then.

I really hope it will. I'm working with Equality NC here in Asheville to do what I can to get the word out about it. We did a Free Hugs For Equality event today downtown, getting people to take part in our post card petition program. The postcards get sent to the legislators.

Debbie Wasserman Schultz tapped to be new head of the DNC. I approve!

So who thinks Obama has a good chance of being defeated in the 2012 election?   If you listen to talk radio and FOX News, you get the impression that Obama is doomed but the reality seems alot different given the inability of Republicans to step into the fray.   I just wonder if the GOP is quietly writing 2012 off?

I don't think the Republicans are writing Obama off, I think, per usual, they're trying to overwrite reality with their own narrative.  Assuming for a moment that Obama will face tough competition, Barack's ace in the hole is having Hillary as his VP.  She runs with him and it's over.  I know she has stated publicly that she has no interest in being a part of the next administration, but I feel like even if she would want to be VP she has to say that in order to keep it from being a distraction in the media.  We'll see.

I think the more the teabaggers push their extremist agenda and then blithely predict doom for Obama, the likelier we are to have President Obama, 2-termer. They're clearly out of touch with reality. Ideology trumps facts and everything that Obama is for that isn't already a core teabag principle, they're against. I'm really not sure how anyone takes them seriously, but there ya go.

Regarding the pool of GOP candidates, it's way too early for them to stick their necks out. Makes no sense for them to do so because courting the teabaggers means alienating the moderates and independents in the general election. To have a long history of flip-fliops and gaffes is a sure way to lose. Like Rand Paul voting (by unanimous consent) for action in Libya then within a few weeks deciding to hit the president for doing exactly what Paul voted for. If I were a betting man, I'd say should he run, he's already lost based on that vote.

All of this could be turned upside-down if the Democrats capitulate to the GOP's policies then take the electoral blame for a shitty economy. In other words, minus another recession (caused specifically by policy or otherwise), the president would only have himself to blame.

So the Obama Re-Election 2012 Teaser Trailer is out:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=f-VZLvVF1FQ

Good ad that reiterates the themes from 2008, and does so in a low key "hey these people aren't fucking batshit crazy" tone.

Meanwhile the GOP are pushing a batshit crazy budget that will "balance the budget by 2015" by ending medicare (come on you know that's the plan) and threatening to shut down the government.

I'd like to give them (the GOP) the benefit of the doubt and say they are acting with the courage of their convictions, and they truely believe this kind of drastic action is called for. But then I think "well if I'm the GOP Establishment, why not give the Tea Party enough rope to hang itself. Let 'em run wild and people will turn them out next election, and we can come back!". And then I think they really are committed to this radical agenda.

And who will the Republicans nominate in 2012? I have a feeling it'll be Romney, just because he can come off as rational, able  to debate Obama one on one. His long history of flip flopping will be a real issue, as will his support of universal healthcare.

Quote:

Originally Posted by JuddL 

I don't think the Republicans are writing Obama off, I think, per usual, they're trying to overwrite reality with their own narrative.  Assuming for a moment that Obama will face tough competition, Barack's ace in the hole is having Hillary as his VP.  She runs with him and it's over.  I know she has stated publicly that she has no interest in being a part of the next administration, but I feel like even if she would want to be VP she has to say that in order to keep it from being a distraction in the media.  We'll see.

 

Coincidentally had lunch with her chief fundraiser yesterday and this topic came up.  She would have no objections whatsoever to being VP, but the chances of that being needed (in their minds) are extremely low.

ETA to the original question - I unfortunately don't see anybody seriously challenging Obama.  The GOP is still riding the Tea Party wave, so chances are they'll pick somebody too batshit crazy to do any better than McCain/Palin.

Trump is freaking polling at 21% for second place behind Romney (27%) in New Hampshire! What in the world is going on in the Republican party?!?!

Quote:

Originally Posted by ElCapitanAmerica  What in the world is going on in the Republican party?!?!

 

Nothing good, apparently.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Pop Zeus 

I think the more the teabaggers push their extremist agenda and then blithely predict doom for Obama, the likelier we are to have President Obama, 2-termer. They're clearly out of touch with reality.

I'm not sure I buy that. The more I look around, the less I'm convinced that they aren't a pretty fucking accurate representation of reality. There's a lot of stupid, spiteful people out there, and they show up to vote.

I was ready to give Trump a chance since he seems like a normal dude (a blowhard but otherwise has all his buttons on his shirt) and then he started talking about Obama's Birth Certificate.   Oy Vey!   The pickle the GOP is in right now is that to get the nomination, they have to appeal to the Tea Party and to win the General Election, they have to appeal to the Independents and Democrats.   I just don't see how you can get through the primaries without saying some rather extreme and silly stuff that won't alienate and freak out the mushy middle.

Trump is not seriously running for office, he's just getting free publicity for his crappy show and his own ridiculous persona. I think this is so obvious, but then again, maybe he really thinks he's running for something and is that delusional.

If the Republicans are gonna go crazy they should really nominate Vince McMahon. Imagine the presidential debate!

OBAMA: My esteemed opponent's history with trials is somewhat--

MCMAHON: AWWWWWW (smacks papers out of Obama's hand)

Michele Bachmann, Savannah Guthrie Spar Over 'Credibility'

Caught it this morning and I just had to sit there with my jaw on the floor.  If you want to see the epitome of the Republican party just take a gander at Bachmann's inability to answer even one question with anything but copy/paste Republican slogans.  By the end, she's not even answer the questions!  These fools are nothing but walking talking points.

Naturally I would have put this in the Republican antics thread but it's seems pretty likely she's going to shoot for the nomination.

This is going to be such a fun presidential election;

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2011/04/06/pawlenty-staffer-drunk-iowa_n_845707.html

Iowa Family Receives 3 a.m. Visit From Drunk Pawlenty Campaign Worker

 

 

Former Minnesota Gov. and current GOP presidential-hopeful Tim Pawlenty's Iowa operation is up and running. And apparently testing voter attitudes by "trespassing" in people's homes and "vomiting" in public after getting "wasted." Everyone who said that Pawlenty wasn't going to run an edgy campaign had better apologize now.

Reports KCCI in Des Moines:

Police discovered Benjamin Foster, an employee of the Pawlenty Exploratory Committee, and subsequently arrested him on charges of public drunkenness and trespassing. KCCI reports that Foster was "trying to get home to a friend's house," when he went all Robert Downey, Jr. on young Chloe Steward.

Here is a video interview with the recently traumatized teen, which is sadly neither embeddable nor rendered in Korean animation-style. (The requisite fake Twitter account is already active.)

"an employee of the Pawlenty Exploratory Committee" HAHAHAHAHA

Question for everybody: Do you think Obama is really close to losing the left over the budget, taxes, basically over-compromising in negotiations with the right? I don't think there will be a viable primary challenge but can he drive down enthusiasm to the point where the Republicans can win just by showing up on election day? If so, how does he get them back?

The funny thing about Obama's compromising is that it's consistant with his campaign promise to reach across the aisle & find solutions that satisfy everyone. We're learning the hard way that this simply isn't a feasible approach to Federal governance.

I think he's already lost the Left & there's definitely no way he can run on "Hope" again. At the same time, & this is a pretty broad generalization, I think most folks on the Left are painfully aware how dangerous, crooked, & crazy Conservatives have gotten over the last few years. Obama will get my vote because he's the lesser of 2 evils & that'll likely be his only genuine campaign angle. The Right, no doubt, will hammer on the spin that Obama has bankrupted the country &, ultimately, I think the 2012 race will be defined as a simple competition between the mass-demoralized & the mass-misinformed.

Anyone who thinks that right now Obama is looking at a tougher election than Clinton had in 1996 is nuts.  No matter what you think of his policies or his popularity amongst the base, if things continue on their present course all he has to do is keep his dick in his pants and if no Republican mega-candidate arises he's got it made.  No matter how disappointed some liberals may be, they know who they'll vote for.  And Obama has proven that he can weather any storm, while Clinton looked progressively hapless and tarnished with every ___-gate, and by the time Lewinsky rolled around he was a joke.  A goddamned joke.  As long as Obama keeps playing it cool he'll avoid the massive disasters and keep racking up little victories, and if he avoids getting attacked by a rabbit or whatever the hell other shenanigans Jimmy Carter got into, he'll look ten times better than whoever the Republicans end up with (not to mention the almost inevitable crazy/sleazy/hilariously dumb Republican VP choice and the return of the crazy embarrassing racists at rallies.  God knows what Barbour would drudge up if he's on the ticket).

I just hope they can keep a Nader-type out of the race.  On the other hand, I'm starting to get a nagging suspicion that Trump is making a secretly-noble take-one-for-western-civilization suicide mission and pandering so obviously and sickeningly with the intention of being the Ross Perot of 2012 and splitting the conservative vote.  Don't get me wrong, I don't like the guy, but how great would it be on Election Night 2012 if Alex Jones and Glenn Beck simultaneously have walls-closing-in cold sweat waves of terror wash over them when they see news footage of Trump and Mayor Rahm tipping champagne glasses to each other from across a large room?

Quote:

Originally Posted by Art Decade 

The funny thing about Obama's compromising is that it's consistant with his campaign promise to reach across the aisle & find solutions that satisfy everyone. We're learning the hard way that this simply isn't a feasible approach to Federal governance.

 

I think he's already lost the Left & there's definitely no way he can run on "Hope" again. At the same time, & this is a pretty broad generalization, I think most folks on the Left are painfully aware how dangerous, crooked, & crazy Conservatives have gotten over the last few years. Obama will get my vote because he's the lesser of 2 evils & that'll likely be his only genuine campaign angle. The Right, no doubt, will hammer on the spin that Obama has bankrupted the country &, ultimately, I think the 2012 race will be defined as a simple competition between the mass-demoralized & the mass-misinformed.

This times 100.   2012 will be the year everyone votes on defense. 

I can't believe that Donald Fucking Trump is being considered a serious candidate for anything. The man is a charlatan. He makes more money with phony seminars on how to get instantly rich by flipping houses and buying Gold than he ever did in Real Estate (and how many bankruptcies has he been involved with?).

Re; Obama. I think he'll lose a lot of the idealistic younger voters that helped him in 2008. I agree most people on the Left (who have no loyalty to anyone normally) will vote for him, as well many independants (like me) to prevent a far worse alternative. The one think that can really screw his re-election chances are if Lybia blows up (the Rebels seem incapable of winning without major military support on the ground).

One thing that I think has hobbled Obama is that he really has no broad based support base the way that FDR had the Labor movement (and the Left was a real force in politics in the 30's too). Go back and read/watch his first inaugeral address. He stated quite clearly that WE would have to work hard to solve the problems we face...but contemporary Americans just don't want to hear it...they want to appoint someone their Savior and let them do all the heavy lifting.

It's little things like this that no one even seems to notice, that are why I continue to respect and believe in the sincerity of our President.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1377079/Is-picture-proves-Sarah-Palin-did-birth-baby-Trig.html

Is the "Trig is Bristol's" story rearing its head again? Have to admit, that second photo makes her look mighty non-pregnant.

Since I'm one of the 50% of people in my country who still retain their wits and reason, I would guess an uber-noisy birther should be pretty quick to cough up some proof, no?

Otherwise that would paint them as hypocrites.  Something I wouldn't dare ever accuse the right of being.

I think the "accidental" recording of Obama calling out the Republicans during the budget battle is a trial balloon for the 2012 election.  Are we going to see Mr. Hope and Change again?   Are we going to see Mr. New Culture in Washington?   Maybe a little but I think Obama is going to be far more partisan and combative this time and he needs to be.   He has to convince the American people that for one thing, he's a fighter and that he's learned that getting along with the Republicans is a fine idea as long as the Republicans want the same thing which they don't. 

Will it be an easy election for Obama?   At this point, I think if the unemployment rate is around 7% or less, it'll be a walk.   If it's right now, it will still be an easy win just based on the political suicide the Republicans in Congress are committing.   I mean would you want to run in 2012 with voting to end Medicare on your resume?

Yeah, as president, he's going to try to strike a nice above-the-fray tone. That shit will not suffice in an election. Once he's on stage with a singular candidate, he'll have to mop the floor with them to win. The speech was nice but this is the first real blow in the race and it shows he's (hopefully) not going to stop putting Republicans on the defensive.

I read somewhere that after the Gingrich shutdown and all his bargaining with Republicans, Clinton's numbers were still in the tank. It wasn't until he came out swinging for Medicare (the GOP was trying to destroy it back then too, shocking) that Bill's numbers went up. Of course Obama has to contend with unemployment being so high, so he might have to get even harsher to win, but the GOP just handed him a vote to eliminate Medicare without one iota of cost control.

What's kinda sad about this situation is that the Republicans and conservatives has been trying to destroy Medicare since it was enacted and Obama is still going to have an uphill battle convincing the stupid fucking public that the Ryan plan does exactly that.

I'd take Trump more seriously if he wasn't demagoguing every single issue like Afghanistan, jobs, and a trade war with China. But I suppose that's at last more honest than the other GOP candidates who are relying on magic Jesus to save us.

There is no way in hell that Trump will release his financial statements.  This is all about ratings for Celebrity Apprentice.  It's hilarious that his phony run is getting so much support from everyday Republicans.  It shows, to me anyway, that the Republicans as an organization have sold out to corporate interests so thoroughly that a ratings grab is indistinguishable from an actual candidate. 

Quote:

Originally Posted by yt 

There is no way in hell that Trump will release his financial statements.  This is all about ratings for Celebrity Apprentice.  It's hilarious that his phony run is getting so much support from everyday Republicans.  It shows, to me anyway, that the Republicans as an organization have sold out to corporate interests so thoroughly that a ratings grab is indistinguishable from an actual candidate. 

This.  For Trump it's all about product and profit.  I cannot imagine him as a viable candidate, nor can I fathom anyone actually thinking he is.  Surely the attention he's getting is all just an amused and  disgusted fascination at the crap he says.  I mean, right? 

Right?

Ha ha.  Chris Matthews just referred to Trump as Harold Hill.  Bingo!!

(I've forgotten who it was, but earlier today someone called him out as Elmer Gantry as well.)

I never want to underestimate the American public's fascination with a sideshow. I like to think that Trump would be quashed in a general election, but man...I don't know. Still, REALLY over-the-top candidates have a tendency to flame out. There's definitely a level of over-the-topness that works, and a level where you've gone too far.

Honestly, even the Republican primaries would probably filter the guy out. Don't these seemingly popular candidates often wither in the early going during the primaries?

Thinking about it, while I do think there's a chance that Trump could take it--and the US will have officially become the late-stage Roman Empire--the far more likely outcome is that he'll not only fail, but take the Republican brand down with him. I suspect someone will have a word with him before 2012 rolls around. And of course he's probably not going to get past the fundamentalists for the nomination.

I'd like to think George W. Bush would be quashed in a general election, but my countrymen re-elected him even after they found out about the gulags overseas. That's us. That's America. Give us four more years of torture, George, give us four more years of bombs dropped on weddings and funerals.

And we'll re-elect Obama as well. Watch as Democratic voters fight amongst themselves over this. See how many will vote for a torturer, an expander of wars of aggression, and a launcher of new wars because they have some pet cause that's more important.  See if those of us who are staying home on Election Day come under attack from Democratic voters.

You guys predicting Obama will win easily, just remember he's guilty of being president while black.   Look how close McCain came with Palin as his running mate.   If he ran against a white guy with the same charisma, it would have been a Nixon level landslide.

Obama will still win but expect the most negative campaign yet with dog whistles galore.

Quote

Originally Posted by dynamotv 

You guys predicting Obama will win easily, just remember he's guilty of being president while black.   Look how close McCain came with Palin as his running mate.  

You mean losing by ten million votes and a greater than 2-1 electoral margin?  McCain didn't actually get any closer to the White House than Bob Dole.

Reasor's right about what he said, especially the part about getting shit for not bothering to vote at all.  Sorry, but no one's going to give you a cookie for taking a principled stand when drinking a bottle of Listerine and passing out in a puddle of your own sick would've yielded the exact same result.
 

If you don't vote, you don't deserve to have an opinion on politics, the economy, the air/sea/land quality, natural disasters, wars, and anything else.  Voting is a hard-fought right and discouraging voting is how the real fascists in our culture maintain control.  You might think you're making a point but you're not.  You're casting a vote for people who don't care whether you live or die.  I have no respect for people who have the right to vote and choose not to. 

And as far as anyone thinking Obama's reelection will be a breeze, DynamoTV is right.  This won't be a cakewalk.  A multitude of forces are united against him and if it's even marginally close, the vote riggers will do the rest to give us President Romney/Pawlenty/Palin etc. 

Quote:

Originally Posted by yt 

If you don't vote, you don't deserve to have an opinion on politics, the economy, the air/sea/land quality, natural disasters, wars, and anything else.  Voting is a hard-fought right and discouraging voting is how the real fascists in our culture maintain control.  You might think you're making a point but you're not.  You're casting a vote for people who don't care whether you live or die.  I have no respect for people who have the right to vote and choose not to. 

 

And as far as anyone thinking Obama's reelection will be a breeze, DynamoTV is right.  This won't be a cakewalk.  A multitude of forces are united against him and if it's even marginally close, the vote riggers will do the rest to give us President Romney/Pawlenty/Palin etc. 

 

 

Normally I'd agree with you YT but if the Democratic party sells out Social Security, I'm done with them and I won't vote in 2012.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Devildoubt 

Normally I'd agree with you YT but if the Democratic party sells out Social Security, I'm done with them and I won't vote in 2012.

 

Then you'll be voting by default for the only party that has declared privatizing social security to be the centerpiece of its platform rather than the party that has vowed to protect social security.  For a taste of what you'll be voting for, read the local news in Michigan. 

Quote:

Originally Posted by yt 

 

Then you'll be voting by default for the only party that has declared privatizing social security to be the centerpiece of its platform rather than the party that has vowed to protect social security.  For a taste of what you'll be voting for, read the local news in Michigan. 

I understand that, but at that point the only way to truly turn things around again is for them to get really, really bad.  

Quote:

Originally Posted by Devildoubt 

I understand that, but at that point the only way to truly turn things around again is for them to get really, really bad.  

 

There are some kinds of bad that there's no coming back from. 

Have people heard that completely batty gas prices solution? Is he going to have Loaf shout "those are my motherfucking sponges oil fields!!!" at them? If he keeps this up, he could turn out to be even more entertaining/scary than Palin.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Devildoubt 

I understand that, but at that point the only way to truly turn things around again is for them to get really, really bad.  

 

I'm with YT. The reason American politics have been tilting further and further to the right is that the left is easily demoralized and disillusioned, whereas the right-wingers keep voting for their guys in the face of all reason. Expecting magical liberal utopia from your politicians is unrealistic, which is why some of the hue and cry over Obama is a little ridiculous--yeah, the left got him into power, but then they basically shrugged and went home. If they were out there in the streets every day fighting for public health care and the closing of Gitmo, Obama would have listened. Instead, it's the Tea Party who are broadcasting themselves at top volume. It reminds me of how the environmental movement withered away under Clinton--the left seemed to think that having a Democrat in power would magically solve all their problems, so they stopped the popular campaigning that they did under Bush I, which probably had a much bigger impact on the environment than who was in power. The problem with Bush II is that he legitimately didn't give a shit what the people wanted, but he's an anomaly. And even he was supported by a certain level of apathy, or to be precise, people whining on the internet when they should have been hitting the streets.

Yes, the deck is stacked somewhat with Fox News (whose job is to convince politicians as much as it is the general populace that right is good and left is bad) but liberals are kind of lazy and whiny. If they were out there fighting the way they did in the 60s, things would be different. You can only blame the people in power for so long.