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The Korean War 2: KOREA SOLDIER

post #1 of 18
11/23/10 at 10:23am
Thread Starter 
Quote:
South Korea says it has returned fire after North Korea fired dozens of artillery shells at one of its border islands, killing two marines.

The South's military was placed on its highest non-wartime alert after the shells landed on Yeonpyeong island.

Pyongyang accused the South of firing first. The Southern military said it had conducted exercises but shelling was directed away from the North.

This is one of the worst clashes since the Korean War ended, analysts say.

There have been occasional cross-border incidents since the conflict ended without a peace treaty in 1953, but the latest comes at a time of rising regional tension.
More at this link, http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-pacific-11818005

So, what do people think. Just a little spat, or the start of something bigger?
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post #2 of 18
11/23/10 at 10:30am
I think they've had several clashes in the past over this area, the last one being in 2009 November, I think.


China is gonna be pissed. North Korea will deny or blame the South. The South will probably turn the other cheek. Other countries will say they're outraged.


Also, many games of Starcraft and World of Warcraft will be disrupted.
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post #3 of 18
11/23/10 at 10:31am
There have been numerous such incidents in the past. It sucks for the people getting hurt but no one will go to full war over this. Unless troops set foot in the DMZ, it's probably Kim Jong Un showing that he's as much of a fucking criminal as his dear daddy.
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post #4 of 18
11/23/10 at 12:22pm
Whenever something happens that puts North Korea in a bad light with the US and jeopardizes foreign aid, North Korea throws a little tantrum like this to get attention. Word got out of the North's uranium enrichment facility, which might lead the US or others to withhold aid, increase sanctions, etc. So, Kim Jong Il pulls the crazy card again to remind the world he's still dangerous. It really is like a kid throwing a tantrum in a store until mom or dad buys him the toy he wants to shut him up. It will be interesting to see how this Administration reacts.
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post #5 of 18
11/23/10 at 3:34pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by jvc View Post
It will be interesting to see how CHINA and Russia reacts.
Fixed that for you. I think China is the key to the whole exchange. We know the US will be pissed and back South Korea. We know Japan will be freaked and upset. But how do Russia and especially China react? Unlike some, I think the Chinese govt is very smart and calculating. The last thing they want is a full blown war on their doorstep for various reasons. China wants the world to take it seriously as a superpower, and one equal in power to the US. Letting NK go hog wild and start a war with global impacts is insane and if China either a) supports the North against evidence or crazy actions or b) ignores or downplays the situation their superpower status will take a hit.
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post #6 of 18
11/23/10 at 3:35pm
A client of mine was a logistics specialist for all of the aviation units over there a few years back, which came with a top secret clearance. He was on a 2 star generals staff and got the low down on all of the good stuff. If attacked, their mission was to flee from Taegu to Pusan and hope to god overseas forces made it over quick enough to save them. US forces there are nothing but a speed-bump. Every inch, literally every inch, of every military post is actively targeted by North Korean artillery, and if attacked the ETA to meet the big man upstairs was less than 4 hours. If they survived that then North Korean infantry would overrun them and be at Pusan within 48 hours. And that was a best case scenario without the Chinese getting involved.

Kinda sucks to be a US soldier stationed over there.
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post #7 of 18
11/23/10 at 3:43pm
I wasn't going to say anything but then I reconsidered and seeing as how I'd rather not be the one to jinx it, I figured I should go on record and state that I hope this escalation does not end in an exchange of nuclear arms. I've been reading about NK lately, and they are crazy (driven that way by an insane leader, no doubt, but those poor people have long ago been gone off the deep end. I saw a Nat Geo special that had an old woman tearfully praying that the 'great leader' start a nuclear war)
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post #8 of 18
11/23/10 at 4:12pm
North Korea can't afford a full blown war. Just re-read JVC's post. It's about making a lot of noise and then seeing what type of aid they can get if they quiet down.
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post #9 of 18
11/23/10 at 4:14pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by The Closer View Post
A client of mine was a logistics specialist for all of the aviation units over there a few years back, which came with a top secret clearance. He was on a 2 star generals staff and got the low down on all of the good stuff. If attacked, their mission was to flee from Taegu to Pusan and hope to god overseas forces made it over quick enough to save them. US forces there are nothing but a speed-bump. Every inch, literally every inch, of every military post is actively targeted by North Korean artillery, and if attacked the ETA to meet the big man upstairs was less than 4 hours. If they survived that then North Korean infantry would overrun them and be at Pusan within 48 hours. And that was a best case scenario without the Chinese getting involved.
Holy shit.
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post #10 of 18
11/23/10 at 5:49pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by Spook View Post
Holy shit.
Indeed. Our troops are basically there as an additional deterrent.

A way for us to say that if you attack S Korea you may kill one of our troops, which will lead to us pwning you. And you dont want that, do you?
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post #11 of 18
11/24/10 at 1:30am
An interesting piece detailing some of North Koreas current domestic concerns and issues that may actually be driving much of this sabre-rattling. It certainly gives it more context...

Quote:
Korea on the brink: war unlikely, but Kim Jong Il Jnr off the leash

It certainly makes for spectacular headlines. Dynastical concerns, artillery fire, centrifuge development.

To this mass of speculation, a suggestion: while this recent action by the North Koreans is serious — as serious as it has been for a long time — it’s important to take a step back and ask what the immediate causes for this action may be.

There are many reasons why North Korea may have chosen to launch this attack, taking place during the ROK’s annual Hoguk military exercises in the Yellow Sea. Among these, just one may be internal wrangling within the North Korean military. While it is impossible to rule this out, other possibilities have very real implications for the way in which the major stakeholders — especially South Korea, the United States and China — respond to the most recent provocations.

Following the sinking of the South Korean warship, the Cheonan, in March this year, which killed 46 South Korean military personnel, North Korea attracted international condemnation for its action. In July the UN Security Council unanimously condemned the torpedo attack, though it stopped short of directly linking North Korea to the actions. The message, however, was clear: provocative actions will win you no friends, regionally or internationally

A series of conciliatory actions, on behalf of North Korea, followed the UNSC’s condemnation. They called for a resumption of the six-party talks — a call echoed by China — and restarted family reunions, brokered by the Red Cross, between the two Koreas.

The recent provocations are yet another event in the predictably unpredictable and contradictory relationship between North and South.

Neither South Korea nor the US have been willing to re-start the six-party talks, given the current climate in North Korea. A precondition for the talks are positive steps towards disarmament by the North Koreans.

Back in Pyongyang, this seems unlikely. Amid efforts to put in place succession plans, given Kim Jong Il’s ailing health, there seems to be a shifting balance of power, in favour of the Korean Workers’ Party and away from the military. As such, discontent within the military is a possible source of these tensions, and seemingly contradictory actions.

Is this a serious step towards the complete disintegration of the already tenuous peace armistice between the two Koreas? Or is it just more of the same — posturing on behalf of North Korea, a country with few friends, few resources and dwindling options? It remains unclear.

What is clear, in the immediate future, is this has severe implications for ongoing relations between the two Koreas. A relationship that had been slowly built up over years of engagement, and that has more recently been severely tested by a conservative government in Seoul and ongoing North Korean provocations, has perhaps been now pushed to its limits.

While they are unlikely to descend into war — the ramifications of this are just too devastating for either side — coming back from here will be very difficult indeed.
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post #12 of 18
11/24/10 at 3:51am
Look to the big daddy up north China merely moves and North Korea has to take notice.

Communist little cousin does nothing without big daddy's say so. If they do they are fucked.
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post #13 of 18
11/24/10 at 4:08am
Quote:
Originally Posted by The Closer View Post
A client of mine was a logistics specialist for all of the aviation units over there a few years back, which came with a top secret clearance. He was on a 2 star generals staff and got the low down on all of the good stuff. If attacked, their mission was to flee from Taegu to Pusan and hope to god overseas forces made it over quick enough to save them. US forces there are nothing but a speed-bump. Every inch, literally every inch, of every military post is actively targeted by North Korean artillery, and if attacked the ETA to meet the big man upstairs was less than 4 hours. If they survived that then North Korean infantry would overrun them and be at Pusan within 48 hours. And that was a best case scenario without the Chinese getting involved.

Kinda sucks to be a US soldier stationed over there.
Really? Daegu never fell during the Korean War and was inside the Pusan perimeter; they expect they'd lose it in a future conflict?

What I heard was otherwise similar, it's expected to lose most of the country in the initial offensive but the resulting counter strike would annihilate North Korea. I've also heard the Chinese have plans to invade North Korea to cut any such attempts off at the knees and especially neutralise their nuclear capability; as a war of any kind is the last thing they want.
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post #14 of 18
11/24/10 at 10:23am
Yeah, the scenario above was apparently without any Chinese involvement. But (at least according to said generals) that's what they see happening. Our counter attack would obviously wipe them off the map (again, if China wasnt involved) but for the first few hours there our soldiers would be SOL to a certain extent.
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post #15 of 18
11/24/10 at 11:34am
Quote:
Originally Posted by Johnny Daywalker View Post
Look to the big daddy up north China merely moves and North Korea has to take notice.

Communist little cousin does nothing without big daddy's say so. If they do they are fucked.
From my understanding, that's not really true. Kim Jong Il is/was largely his own crazy self, and the alliance between China and North Korea is really just one of political convenience (China doesn't want a unified, US-dominated Korea on their back lawn, and North Korea needs a powerful ally to keep themselves extant). China can't simply "annex" North Korea either without provoking a US response (who doesn't want China being that close to South Korea).

That isn't to say that North Korea isn't heavily dependent on China...it is...but they're more than willing to jerk the leash whenever they think they can get away with it (and they usually do...most of this saber-rattling is designed to get economic/aid concessions of one form or another).
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post #16 of 18
11/24/10 at 3:09pm
Is it North Korea we like? Or South? Sarah Palin gets them mixed up. http://j.mp/eAP9YS
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post #17 of 18
11/25/10 at 10:43am
That is brilliant, you go Sarah! Keep making yourself un-electable.
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post #18 of 18
11/25/10 at 1:40pm
South Korean defence minister resigns over deadly clash

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-pacific-11838750
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