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The 2010 Oscar Season

post #1 of 85
12/12/10 at 8:32pm
Thread Starter 
It has begun. Well, actually, it's been in full swing since the beginning of December.
Organizations that have announced: Independent Spirit Awards (nominees), Gotham Awards (noms & winners), Golden Satellites (nominees), National Board of Review (winners), Washington DC Area Film Critics (nominees & winners), Detroit Film Critics (nominees), Boston Film Critics (winners), Houston Film Critics (nominees), New York Film Critics Online (winners), Los Angeles Film Critics (winners), Indiana Film Journalists (winners), St. Louis Film Critics (nominees)

Best Picture
The Social Network: Boston (winner), Detroit (nominee), Houston (nominee), Satellites (nominee), L.A. (winner), New York Online (winner), D.C. (winner), NBR (winner), Indiana (winner), St. Louis (nominee)

The King's Speech: Detroit (nominee), Houston (nominee), Satellites (nominee), British Independent Film Awards (winner), NBR (top ten), St. Louis (nominee)

Black Swan: Houston (nominee), D.C. (nominee), Independent Spirit (nominee), Gotham (nominee), St. Louis (nominee)

Inception: Detroit (nominee), Houston (nominee), Satellites (nominee), D.C. (nominee), NBR (top ten), St. Louis (nominee)

127 Hours: Detroit (nominee), Houston (nominee), Satellites (nominee), D.C. (nominee), Independent Spirit (nominee)

The Kids Are All Right: Houston (nominee), Satellites (nominee), Independent Spirit (nominee), Gotham (nominee)

Winter's Bone: Detroit (nominee), Satellites (nominee), Independent Spirit (nominee), Gotham (winner), NBR (top ten)

The Fighter: St. Louis (nominee), NBR (top ten)

True Grit: Houston (nominee), NBR (top ten)

Toy Story 3: Houston (nominee), D.C. (nominee), NBR (top ten)

The Town: Satellites (nominee), NBR (top ten)

Another Year: NBR (top ten)

Best Director
David Fincher (The Social Network) : Boston (winner), Detroit (nominee), Houston (nominee), Satellites (nominee), L.A. (winner), New York Online (winner), St. Louis (nominee), D.C. (winner), NBR (winner)

Tom Hooper (The King's Speech) : Detroit (nominee), Satellites (nominee), St. Louis (nominee)

Christopher Nolan (Inception) : Detroit (nominee), Houston (nominee), Indiana (winner), Satellites (nominee), St. Louis (nominee), D.C. (nominee).

Danny Boyle (127 Hours) : Detroit (nominee), Houston (nominee), Satellites (nominee), D.C. (nominee), Independent Spirit (nominee)

Joel and Ethan Coen (True Grit) : Houston (nominee), D.C. (nominee)

Darren Aronofsky (Black Swan) : Houston (nominee), Satellites (nominee), St. Louis (nominee), D.C. (nominee), Independent Spirit (nominee)

Debra Granik (Winter's Bone) : Detroit (nominee), Satellites (nominee), Independent Spirit (nominee)

Lisa Cholodenko (The Kids Are All Right) : Satellites (nominee), Independent Spirit (nominee)

I'll keep working on this and updating it. Uh, so far it looks fairly boring, but to win The Social Network has to be loved by the people in the industry, not just the critics.
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post #2 of 85
12/12/10 at 8:48pm
I'm really hoping Christian Bale wins for 'The Fighter' so the trailer for 'The Dark Knight Rises' can say something like "Academy Award Winner Christian Bale as...Batman."

That just sounds awesomely goofy.
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post #3 of 85
12/12/10 at 8:54pm
Best I see Inception getting is Nolan for Original Screenplay, and King's Speech will probably end up nabbing it instead.
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post #4 of 85
12/12/10 at 8:56pm
No Oscar buzz for Animal Kingdom? I'm not entirely sure how English speaking productions made outside the U.S. work.
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post #5 of 85
12/12/10 at 9:02pm
I'd say the Best Actor race right now is between Eisenberg and Franco. I haven't seen 127 Hours, but that leads me to believe that Franco may get it, and that's just great.
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post #6 of 85
12/12/10 at 9:07pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by Rene (Mr.Eko) View Post
I'd say the Best Actor race right now is between Eisenberg and Franco. I haven't seen 127 Hours, but that leads me to believe that Franco may get it, and that's just great.
I've heard it's Firth's to lose.
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post #7 of 85
12/12/10 at 9:11pm
Who amongst Garfield, Hammer and Timberlake has the best shot at a Supporting Actor nod?
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post #8 of 85
12/12/10 at 9:11pm
Getting ready to see THE KING'S SPEECH in an hour, but Firth probably has it. He's very well-respected, he was a strong nominee last year and he's Mr. Darcy. Franco will be a very close second, though.
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post #9 of 85
12/12/10 at 9:18pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by Rene (Mr.Eko) View Post
I'd say the Best Actor race right now is between Eisenberg and Franco. I haven't seen 127 Hours, but that leads me to believe that Franco may get it, and that's just great.
I don't understand this sentence.
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post #10 of 85
12/12/10 at 9:20pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tati View Post
I don't understand this sentence.
Yeah what wait what?
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post #11 of 85
12/12/10 at 9:22pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by TheMantis View Post
No Oscar buzz for Animal Kingdom? I'm not entirely sure how English speaking productions made outside the U.S. work.
Serious buzz for Jackie Weaver to get a Best Supporting Actress nom and maybe walk off with it as well.
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post #12 of 85
12/12/10 at 10:41pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by FilmNerdJamie View Post
Who amongst Garfield, Hammer and Timberlake has the best shot at a Supporting Actor nod?
I believe that Hammer has the best shot, though I wouldn't entirely rule out more than one of these guys getting a nod. If more than one gets in, I think that they'll split the vote and someone else will take the hardware.
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post #13 of 85
12/13/10 at 1:14am
Just got back from seeing THE KING'S SPEECH. Firth would have to rape Sasha Obama atop the graves of 9/11 victims to lose the Oscar.

Also, the movie itself is a virtual shoo-in for winning Best Picture. Those two races are over.
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post #14 of 85
12/13/10 at 1:25am
Quote:
Originally Posted by Ratty View Post
Just got back from seeing THE KING'S SPEECH. Firth would have to rape Sasha Obama atop the graves of 9/11 victims to lose the Oscar.

Also, the movie itself is a virtual shoo-in for winning Best Picture. Those two races are over.
Wow, really? It's that good?

...or is it just perfect oscar fodder?
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post #15 of 85
12/13/10 at 1:31am
Quote:
Originally Posted by Ratty View Post
Just got back from seeing THE KING'S SPEECH. Firth would have to rape Sasha Obama atop the graves of 9/11 victims to lose the Oscar.

Also, the movie itself is a virtual shoo-in for winning Best Picture. Those two races are over.
This is what I've heard. Very well-made, classy, strong message, well acted, and totally British. Shoo-In, unless 'The Fighter' plays big and sneaks in.
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post #16 of 85
12/13/10 at 1:33am
How is no one even mentioning True Grit or Black Swan?
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post #17 of 85
12/13/10 at 1:43am
I have this sneaky feeling that The King's Speech will be like The Queen; it wins its lead the award but all this talk of being a Best Picture shoo-in is premature at best. But then again the trailer for it has done this weird number of rubbing me the wrong way because of how blatantly pandering it is for awards.

And for my money, I still say Inception is in the race. I've heard it getting dismissed as the "District 9" entry, but the way it hit gold financially, critically, and with audiences makes it a perfect pick, at the very least a contender. That, and for once the "mainstream appeal" film is also one with actual merit on its own.
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post #18 of 85
12/13/10 at 1:45am
Based on the films I've seen over the past couple of weeks, I'd have to second that emotion when it comes to Firth for Best Actor, Bale for Best Supporting.

KING'S SPEECH is moving, well-made stuff that's a tad pedestrian in its scripting but energised by its two central performances (Rush is brilliant, but Firth's character has the more defined arc). It's essentially GOOD WILL HUNTING in WWII-era Britain.

FIGHTER is your typical visceral underdog-boxer story (with all the pleasures that entails), with Russell weaving in some strong character detail and interaction. Wahlberg and Bale make a fantastic team, and Melissa Leo is almost unrecognisable. Plus Amy Adams is not white-hot, she's white-trash hot...which is even hotter.
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post #19 of 85
12/13/10 at 1:53am
Quote:
Originally Posted by Greg Clark View Post
But then again the trailer for it has done this weird number of rubbing me the wrong way because of how blatantly pandering it is for awards.
It might be too Oscar-baity, but that Colin Firth fellow is just so damn charming.
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post #20 of 85
12/13/10 at 6:48am
I think Nolan gets a direction nod.
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post #21 of 85
12/13/10 at 6:57am
Quote:
Originally Posted by Greg Clark View Post
And for my money, I still say Inception is in the race. I've heard it getting dismissed as the "District 9" entry, but the way it hit gold financially, critically, and with audiences makes it a perfect pick, at the very least a contender. That, and for once the "mainstream appeal" film is also one with actual merit on its own.
I think the Directing award goes to either Nolan or Fincher. Hopefully Nolan gets it. I doubt that INCEPTION will win the big one though
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post #22 of 85
12/13/10 at 10:22am
Nolan gets the major nods, but maybe only walks away with original screenplay. He gives a modest, well-spoken, exactly 45 seconds long speech, then he leaps off the stage, runs right up to David O. Russell, and beats him to death with the Oscar. Audience cheers, Clooney pumps fist, Lily Tomlin weeps tears of joy.
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post #23 of 85
12/13/10 at 11:36am
Quote:
Originally Posted by The Rain Dog View Post
How is no one even mentioning True Grit or Black Swan?
No one's seen True Grit yet, and the Academy typically ignores Aronofsky.

My personal stake in this is praying for serious tech gold for Scott Pilgrim, and that Chloe Moretz sees a nod for anything she's done this year. Maybe not the win, but definitely nominations.

Inception's definitely in the race for Best Picture, though. It may be the District 9 pick, but it's in it nonetheless.
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post #24 of 85
12/13/10 at 11:55am
I haven't seen Let Me In yet, but I'm not sure on what planet people would think that Moretz deserves a best supporting actress for Kick Ass. The character was fun but the acting wasn't amazing or anything.
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post #25 of 85
12/13/10 at 11:57am
Moretz is good in Let Me In, it's a noteworthy performance, but that's it.
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post #26 of 85
12/13/10 at 12:00pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by The Rain Dog View Post
Wow, really? It's that good?

...or is it just perfect oscar fodder?
Both.

It's kind of got the checklist of perennial Oscar faves: indirectly about WW2, underdog story, deals with a real person with an affliction. And it's really, really good. I can't envision anything else beating it for Picture.

I agree, though, that Best Director is still kind of wide open, leaning towards Fincher or Nolan.
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post #27 of 85
12/13/10 at 12:46pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by FilmNerdJamie View Post
Who amongst Garfield, Hammer and Timberlake has the best shot at a Supporting Actor nod?
I'd say it's between Garfield and Timberlake. Timberlake is the more subdued/slimy performance, but Garfield has the big moment at the headquarters where he busts Zuckerberg's laptop and has that great meltdown. Meltdowns are one of the things that the Academy loves to see.

Tati, I figured that sentence was pretty straightforward. I've seen The Social Network, but I haven't seen 127 Hours, but what I've heard of it, it sounds like Franco has a really good chance.

I'll have to see The King's Speech, after all this talk on here.
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post #28 of 85
12/13/10 at 1:04pm
At this point, any supporting actor nod for The Social Network is essentially the Academy asking itself: "So, who would look best losing to Christian Bale?".
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post #29 of 85
12/13/10 at 1:08pm
Garfield's gonn get that slot, for sure. He's being positioned as a hot prospect over the next two years, and a supporting nom is more grist for the mill.
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post #30 of 85
12/13/10 at 1:47pm
Weaver winning best supporting actress seems like a very very long shot.

Garfield may be the next big thing, but the academy loves them some multi-talented dudes, which is why I bet on Timberlake before him.

The gal from True Grit will be nominated before HIt Girl.

I think Best Director comes down to Fincher and Nolan. Fincher has way more "he's due" mojo working for him, and as Dark Knight showed, it seems like the academy isn't ready to fully embrace genre projects. I remain skeptical about his chances.

I'm just glad we seem to be getting an actual horse race this year.
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post #31 of 85
12/13/10 at 2:05pm
The Academy is old people. The Facebook movie will get largely shut out as a result. True Grit's going to clean up, with maybe Franco taking Best Actor for 127 Hours. Nothing that opened wide before September will get anything major.
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post #32 of 85
12/13/10 at 2:33pm
Fincher is out of the country filming Girl with the Dragon Tattoo while Nolan is still around and could theoretically kiss up to voters at parties, special screenings, etc. Then again, Nolan doesn't seem like the ass-kissing type.

That's the only way I could see Fincher being bested for Best Director.
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post #33 of 85
12/13/10 at 4:06pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by RathBandu View Post

The gal from True Grit will be nominated before HIt Girl.
She is blatantly the lead role in True Grit, but, in this case, I hope she gets bounced down to Supporting Actress, because she's Jennifer Lawrence's direct "New Girl" nominee competition in Lead. I want both to get nominated.

Chloe Moretz has more chance of getting nominated for a Nobel Prize than an Oscar this year.
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post #34 of 85
12/13/10 at 7:27pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by JacknifeJohnny View Post
Nolan gets the major nods, but maybe only walks away with original screenplay. He gives a modest, well-spoken, exactly 45 seconds long speech, then he leaps off the stage, runs right up to David O. Russell, and beats him to death with the Oscar. Audience cheers, Clooney pumps fist, Lily Tomlin weeps tears of joy.
Awesome.
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post #35 of 85
12/13/10 at 7:29pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by Rene (Mr.Eko) View Post
I'd say it's between Garfield and Timberlake.
Garfield wont be nominated. As good as he was, he was a light weight compared to Hammer and Timberlake. I say Hammer probably gets nominated because he pulled double-duty with the twins. Or it could be Timberlake because he's the new Sinatra (or so I hear).
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post #36 of 85
12/13/10 at 7:31pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by FilmNerdJamie View Post
Fincher is out of the country filming Girl with the Dragon Tattoo while Nolan is still around and could theoretically kiss up to voters at parties, special screenings, etc.
Doesn't matter. He's already due for an oscar since Fight Club, Zodiac and Ben Button...he's done all the ass kissing he needs. Nolan has a few more films to make. It's Fincher's turn.
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post #37 of 85
12/13/10 at 7:37pm
As long as Hereafter doesn't get nominated for anything I'll be happy.
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post #38 of 85
12/13/10 at 8:03pm
Hereafter does appear to be in the running for Visual Effects. In a perfect world it'll get stomped by Scott Pilgrim.
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post #39 of 85
12/14/10 at 1:12am
Oscar threads have always been a bit depressing because they become about the politics/movies being "Oscar Worthy" instead of what and who actually deserves awards. This is understandable since the system we are commenting on tends to veer away from actual film quality into the aforementioned issues.

In a perfect world, Inception wins best pic and Nolan wins best director. I love Fincher's work, but Nolan pulled out all the stops and shouldn't be downgraded because the film was a "blockbuster" and opened in August.
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post #40 of 85
12/14/10 at 1:28am
Oscar season is just a prestige version of the summer blockbuster competition. It's always political, but that's part of the fun. I know a lot of you guys have no use for sports, but these two parts of the year are like Hollywood versions of an NFL season. It's fun to see what team has the best matchup.

It doesn't matter anyway. Everyone's opinion on the best movie is so subjective that there's no way they could award the "best" film. So they might as well make it a show. One plus of this year is that there's so few worthwhile competitors that the academy will have no choice but to nominate the best movies.
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post #41 of 85
12/14/10 at 2:22am
Quote:
Originally Posted by kingcujoI View Post

In a perfect world, Inception wins best pic and Nolan wins best director. I love Fincher's work, but Nolan pulled out all the stops and shouldn't be downgraded because the film was a "blockbuster" and opened in August.
I don't think that downgrades it. Inception is great, but it's hardly his crowning achievement...it represents his culmination of control over his work because of his success with Batman, but artistically he's done better work. The Social Network is pretty much a flawless movie thanks to Fincher, and he's overdue for a win. In a perfect world, he deserves it more.
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post #42 of 85
12/14/10 at 2:50am
It really comes down to personal taste, but I think INCEPTION is easily Nolan's most artistically satisfying work to date, probably his most personal, and is the kind of mainstream blockbuster that we complain doesn't get made anymore. The Academy used to be all about showering this kind of achievement with accolades, but now it seems reduced to just waiting in the queue long enough to have your number called. Or at least, all these pre-discussions make it feel as such.

Personally, I think Fincher's work on The Social Network is good enough to merit a win, but something always irks me when something or someone is given an automatic edge because "it's their turn."

Until the major critic award stuff starts coming in, I don't think anyone here can predict with a great deal of accuracy how the chips will fall this year; there's no clear buzz barometer pointing in one direction or the other; a bunch of worthy entries have seized different aspects of the narrative, and it's unclear who will pull out in front this year.
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post #43 of 85
12/14/10 at 3:07am
True Grit and that Stuttering King movie are beating all these. Social Network is about kids you don't like, old voters didn't understand Inception, Scott Pilgrim's not getting VFX nominations, we'll all be outraged. Repeat next year.
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post #44 of 85
12/14/10 at 4:51am
What about Black Swan? I haven't seen it, but I have ears. Why does Aronofsky keep getting dissed?
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post #45 of 85
12/14/10 at 4:55am
Aronofsky's movies are too weird to be Oscar material and too painfully earnest to be universally adored by critics. The Wrestler got the actor nod, and so will Swan get the actress, but until he starts toning down everything that makes his films so Nofsky, he's not going to be the Academy's favorite.
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post #46 of 85
12/14/10 at 4:56am
Quote:
Originally Posted by Ambler View Post
What about Black Swan? I haven't seen it, but I have ears. Why does Aronofsky keep getting dissed?
I think as far as picture noms go it won't have too much attention paid by the academy. It's Aronofsky, it blends genres, gets very dark, etc. I'm sure with the ten slots it'll pick up a best picture nod, and Portman has a good shot at best actress, but I think it won't go too much further than that.
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post #47 of 85
12/14/10 at 5:10am
I think Portman's got the buzz for Best Actress, but the film itself might be too bizarre for the Academy's liking to get anything more than nods. If it gets snubbed for Best Pic even with ten slots then I'll officially subscribe to the "Academy hates Aronofsky" magazine.
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post #48 of 85
12/14/10 at 5:26am
Quote:
Originally Posted by Arjen Rudd View Post
Oscar season is just a prestige version of the summer blockbuster competition. It's always political, but that's part of the fun. I know a lot of you guys have no use for sports, but these two parts of the year are like Hollywood versions of an NFL season. It's fun to see what team has the best matchup.
Bingo. I don't like following professional sports but I do love awards season for a lot of the same reasons sports people do.

I've mentioned this before, but Mark Harris' article from New York magazine is one of the best pieces about the modern Oscar race that I've ever read. It goes into the "his turn" debate, and also is incredibly illuminating as to just how much of the season depends on being able to play the game. One of the reasons Harvey Weinstein was able to get Oscars for himself and his stars was he knew how to play the game better than most -- there's that story about Roberto Bengini doing the dinner and old folks home circuit and being so damn charming, he won for that, not the movie. And let's not forget the controversy over Monique being unable to eat an Oscar and her unwillingness to play the game at first, and even when she did, she did it on her own terms.

In short, I think Best Director is going to come down to who can play the game better, which is why we might see a spoiler cause Nolan and Fincher to both go home empty handed.

Anyway, here's the Harris article: http://nymag.com/movies/features/63661/

Also, calling Inception the "District 9" of the race seems kind of silly, since Nolan's movie was mentioned as a major contender from the moment it was released. I'm surprised, even with it out on DVD, they haven't put it back into theaters for a run.

And let's not forget that Disney wants Toy Story 3 to win and how. They're really playing the "it's time" card when it comes to that film, i.e., time for an animated film to win Best Picture. And I do think Rabbit Hole could wind up surprising a lot of folks.
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post #49 of 85
12/14/10 at 5:30am
Quote:
Originally Posted by RathBandu View Post
And I do think Rabbit Hole could wind up surprising a lot of folks.
Really? I haven't heard anything but a lukewarm response to that one. Could be I'm just following the wrong critics on Twitter, but I didn't think that movie had any buzz at all.
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post #50 of 85
12/14/10 at 5:35am
Silly question that I already know the answer to: What are the chances Beck gets nominated for best song for one of the Scott Pilgrim songs?

Obviously not going to happen but I'd take back everything bad I've ever said about the Oscars if a Sex Bob-Omb song is performed on stage at the Kodack theater.

Real talk: I find all this talk about the Academy being sour on Aronofsky to be really disconcerting. Black Swan is easily the best movie of the year as far as I'm concerned.
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