Arab Spring (formerly "Youth Protests in Egypt - Internet Shut Down")

This is what I'm mostly following regarding this. First Tunisia, now Egypt. Yemen probably next. Exciting and dangerous times.

Just think. If all these decades we've been in these countries building schools and hospitals instead of propping up dictators as part of stupid grand strategies. This would be the perfect time to give them a friendly nudge towards our direction. Change the geopolitical situation for good. But now we have to stand and wait for organizations like the Islamic Brotherhood to step in and fill the void. 

The young shall rise up. Fish, and plankton. And sea greens, and protein from the sea!

It always makes me a terribly sad when a regime using our weapons and technology and aid prevent freedom and unrest in one area of the world that actually wants fair democracy while we force democracy in other areas in our best interests.  We've come a long way from our own revolution in such a short amount of time. 

The situation is complicated for the administration, but at this point, we need to figure out a way to throw Mubarak under the bus. We need to win heart and minds Mr. president, hearts and minds.

Definitely. ElBaradei is the logical choice. But this has to be done as discreetly as possible. This is the worst time for him to appear hand picked by the West. Otherwise it will be a short time before he loses to the Muslim Brotherhood. 

Does ElBaradei have any significant local support?

Also there better be a good plan to setup some type of legitimate and fair election as soon as possible, this is a great opportunity for the people of Egypt. I just hope when they get to chose, they don't chose wrong (Muslim Brotherhood). 

UPDATE: Finally Hilary with a live statement ...

I really don't know about ElBaradei. But I assume he does, at least a little.

And the mechanism for Egypt to become a proper democracy is in place. It was a democracy, at least in name, for quite a while now.  

And now the army got involved. Funny thing is, if the initial rumors are to be believed, they appear to be if not siding with the protesters outright, at least favorably neutral. This could snowball fast. 

Any good ideas why this is playing out much differently than what happened in Iran? (at least so far it seems)

If the Egyptian Army is anything like the Turkish one it's probably the most secular and westernized institution in the country. And very favored by the people. The thing is that there's always the possibility that the army will make a power play and try to take over. Acting as a counterbalance to the more theocratically inclined political forces is a necessary evil but the army actually calling the shots should be avoided.

Regarding the Egypt/Iran differences. Mubarak is bad but nowhere near to what the Shah and SAVAK were. So the people won't be that mad. And this time at least the Islamic movement isn't seen as the only anti establishment force.

“I address you today not only as the President but also as an Egyptian citizen. I exhausted my life for this country in times of war and peace. We have weathered hard times and stood up to be one nation and were aware of our course and our goals. We have embraced our course and will continue steadily by respecting the rule of law… More freedom to citizens… More steps to reduce unemployment, develop services. Our options and our goals will define the shape of our future and we have no other alternative to achieve them that to embrace genuine work and struggle. Cautious of the nation’s future, today’s events have left the majority of Egyptians feeling cautious of futher mayhem, chaos, and destruction. I, shouldering my responsibility to uphold security, cannot allow this fear to grip our people. I have requested the government to step down today and I will designate a new government as of tomorrow to shoulder new duties. I state once again that I will not be lax or tolerant. I will take all steps to safeguard the safety of Egypt. It is my duty and responsibility. May God save Egypt and its people. Peace be upon you all.” — Egyptian President Mohamed Hosni Sayyid Mubarak

Do they have oil? If they don't have oil I don't see why we should help them with Democracy... it might set a bad precedent.

Seriously?

Quote:

Originally Posted by yt 

Incredible video of events:  http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ThvBJMzmSZI&feature=youtube_gdata_player

Watching this this morning, I may have been a bit tired and emotional but when the video reached the point of the young man shouting "whether you're muslim, christian or athiest, we deserve our rights" I don't mind admitting I was choking up a bit. This is historical, moving stuff.

I pray that this Egyptian story ends up like Tunisia and not Iran.

Power to the people.

This kind of protest makes me loose all sympathy with the studients in the UK at the moment protesting about tuition fees, which actually took up more news space yesterday.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Ken Savage 

This kind of protest makes me loose all sympathy with the studients in the UK at the moment protesting about tuition fees, which actually took up more news space yesterday.

 

What Louis CK would call "fat, white people problems"

Quote:

Originally Posted by Ken Savage 

This kind of protest makes me loose all sympathy with the studients in the UK at the moment protesting about tuition fees, which actually took up more news space yesterday.

 

For some reason, I can't help but think of this.

Justin, Rain Dog, right on both counts.  The whole "Oh no I have to pay for my education" thing does not wash when there are people protesting because they can't afford to eat.

Justin, Rain Dog, right on both counts.  The whole "Oh no I have to pay for my education" thing does not wash when there are people protesting because they can't afford to eat.

You're all wrong. You don't give an inch without a fight. Not a fucking inch. They won't stop until they take a mile and you'll have to fight for everything all over again, otherwise. 

Quote:

Originally Posted by Ken Savage 

Justin, Rain Dog, right on both counts.  The whole "Oh no I have to pay for my education" thing does not wash when there are people protesting because they can't afford to eat.

That is such a short sighted and reductive point of view.

I just think they should have thought about what was going on elsewhere in the world before deciding to protest on a day when people were doing it for far more serious reasons.

The protests were booked well in advance. These things take organising, it's bad timing but it doesn't mean that there cause isn't worthy. A cost effective, open, higher education system is something worth fighting for. 

They can only blame Israel for so long.  Glad these countries are finally realizing their leaders are frauds, liars, and only in it to keep the money and power. 

When do the Saudi people riot?  That would be interesting.

I was just browsing the thread and that line caught me. We live in a very interesting time.

A very tough call, one that I've been mulling over for days, but I stand with Murbarek on this one. The risk of an islamist state resulting from a civil war is simply too great. Egypt is a land where women share some measure of equality. In  a theocracy, that would evaporate in a heart beat. Also, the risk to antiquities posed by looting ETC is unacceptable

There may be a need for a change, but this is not the way to go about it

I can empathize with those frustrated by the lack of self determination in egypt, but the statements from organizations like the "muslim brotherhood" are deeply troubling. In a nation where women are generally more equal than elsewhere in the region, the relative scarceness of women protesters is worrying.. and telling. It's kind of the opposite of what we saw during the failed Green Revolution

Quote:

Originally Posted by Anyawatchin Angel 

When do the Saudi people riot?  That would be interesting.

Read an article about this over the weekend. Prevailing sentiment in Iraq and Iran is "We've been doing this shit nonstop for 30 years. Can we have a fucking nap first?"

Quote:

Originally Posted by Princess Kate 

A very tough call, one that I've been mulling over for days, but I stand with Murbarek on this one. The risk of an islamist state resulting from a civil war is simply too great. Egypt is a land where women share some measure of equality. In  a theocracy, that would evaporate in a heart beat. Also, the risk to antiquities posed by looting ETC is unacceptable

 

There may be a need for a change, but this is not the way to go about it

 

I can empathize with those frustrated by the lack of self determination in egypt, but the statements from organizations like the "muslim brotherhood" are deeply troubling. In a nation where women are generally more equal than elsewhere in the region, the relative scarceness of women protesters is worrying.. and telling. It's kind of the opposite of what we saw during the failed Green Revolution

As usual, you're being a moron. It's not either/or, Mubarak or crazy Islamists. Egypt has, at the very least, the framework for democracy, even if it's been a sham under Mubarak, and there are a number of potential secular candidates. The Islamist threat may be being blown out of proportion--the leaders of the protests seem to be young and secular, and the army, which is likely to play a peacekeeping role and is well-respected, is secular. Ending up like Turkey is a very likely option.

And the looting you decry seems to be the work of Mubarak's agents, infiltrating the protests to make them look bad. Reports are floating around of protestors organizing to prevent troublemakers.

Even if I'm wrong about all this...do you really want to be the one who supports a dictator (a dictator who's likely going down anyway) because there's a risk of Islamist parties grabbing power?

http://www.tnr.com/blog/jonathan-cohn/82416/five-things-you-should-know-about-the-riots-in-egypt

Quote:

Originally Posted by Princess Kate 

A very tough call, one that I've been mulling over for days, but I stand with Murbarek on this one. The risk of an islamist state resulting from a civil war is simply too great. Egypt is a land where women share some measure of equality. In  a theocracy, that would evaporate in a heart beat. Also, the risk to antiquities posed by looting ETC is unacceptable

 

There may be a need for a change, but this is not the way to go about it

 

I can empathize with those frustrated by the lack of self determination in egypt, but the statements from organizations like the "muslim brotherhood" are deeply troubling. In a nation where women are generally more equal than elsewhere in the region, the relative scarceness of women protesters is worrying.. and telling. It's kind of the opposite of what we saw during the failed Green Revolution

Egypt is one of the few countries in the world where Christians and Muslims live side by side. Religion is not their problem.

Guys, the problem is not the Egyptian people themselves, but whoever decides to fill in the void. The Muslim Brotherhood at least seems to have a political organization that can be setup to start soon, what is the alternative (the military)? They are already trying to distance themselves from ElBaradei ... which is troubling.

Meanwhile everybody in the world hates our response (or non-response). We're in a lose lose situation here;

http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/01/31/us-egypt-israel-usa-idUSTRE70U53720110131

Writing in Haaretz, Ari Shavit said Obama had betrayed "a moderate Egyptian president who remained loyal to the United States, promoted stability and encouraged moderation."

To win popular Arab opinion, Obama was risking America's status as a superpower and reliable ally.

"Throughout Asia, Africa and South America, leaders are now looking at what is going on between Washington and Cairo. Everyone grasps the message: "America's word is worthless ... America has lost it."

Chavez pretty much said the same thing, so it's really coming from all sides now ... (maybe except Europe)

Wasn't the gist of Obama's actions during this mess just him saying "Look, handle your business, just please don't kill anybody?" And that's a betrayal? Fuck those people.

So what is Obama suppose to do?  Support military action against a civillian population?  Send in American troops to help?  When America gets involved(Iraq) it gets criticised.  When it lays off it gets the same.

If Obama put his full support with Mubarek he'd screw the US when the eventual power shift happened.

There are those who will not stand for a secular leader, and without a strong central government they could start a civil war that would throw the country into chaos. I'm not a "moron". I know there are plenty of secular people in egypt. However, the ones "tweeting"? Rich people, for the most part. Rich, educated people who have the means to get around the black out. The poor, the religos, they are thus far silent. Without a strong man though? They may well make their play for power. It only takes a few guys with guns and bombs to ruin a country. Take the dictator's boot off the throat of the average citizen, and you take it off the throat of the islamist. "If you give a mouse a cookie/a moose a muffin", and all that

This could be Iraq all over again

I'd love to indulge in the fantasy of a peaceful turn over of power and a new secular government being installed without problems, but I have seen enough in my time to know that sometimes the devil you know is the best option

As for Obama? Just what is he supposed to say? Anyone he "supports" could end up looking like a puppet of the west. Anyone he criticizes could be used as an example of the west dictating how another country should operate. Some people are so ignorant about diplomacy it makes the neocons look positively enlightened

Quote:

Originally Posted by yt 

Princess Kate, you "stand with Mubarek." I don't know what else there is to say.

I also said I understand the desire for self determination. If some sort of election could be set up, that could be secretly fixed so that Islamist forces couldn't win, I'd be all for it. A mod of people tearing the heads off mummies is not the way to bring about this change. There is a reason we don't have a civil war every four years in America -- because the transfer of power is highly ritualized, organized and everyone is entitled to participate

If they want Mubarek out? Fine. Figure out a way to remove him through legal means. Also figure out a way to ensure that whoever comes next will be freindly towards the west and principals of secularism. This takes time and discussion. Mubarek should agree to step down in six months or something, and set a date for elections ETC

If he has to flee the country in fear for his life? Then this could end very badly

Quote:

Originally Posted by Princess Kate 
I also said I understand the desire for self determination. If some sort of election could be set up, that could be secretly fixed so that Islamist forces couldn't win, I'd be all for it. 

Wow. Just fucking, wow.

You really need to get a handle on your acute xenophobia. It makes you even more offensive than usual. You sound like you belong in Bill O'Reillys lap right now - in fact not even he would have the balls to say what you're advocating thanks to your disgusting Islamaphobia.

You go on and keep supporting dictatorship, a state of emergency that's been in place for almost fifty years, crushed human rights, torture camps and enforced poverty at the point of a gun - I'm going to go with this crazy notion that the Egyptians have every fucking right to choose their own government, regardless of whether the west 'approves' of it or not.