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Summer Movies 2011 - Predictions

post #1 of 46
2/7/11 at 9:45am
Thread Starter 

In light of the Super Bowl ads signaling the beginning of the studio marketing machines, here's the major  releases for summer 2011!

 

MAY

Thor (6)

Priest (13)

Bridesmaids (13)

Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides (20)

The Hangover 2 (26)

Kung Fu Panda 2 (27)

Tree of Life (27)

 

JUNE

X Men: First Class (3)

Super Eight (10)

Green Lantern (17)

Mr. Popper's Penguins (17)

Cars 2 (24)

 

JULY

Transformers: Dark of the Moon (1)

Larry Crowne (1)

Zookeeper (8)

Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows part 2 (15)

Captain America: The First Avenger (22)

Cowboys and Aliens (29)

 

AUGUST

The Smurfs (3)

The Change Up (5)

30 Minutes or Less (12)

Fright Night (19)

 

Goddamn, August looks desolate.

 

I personally don't see a lot of really promising stuff there. On paper, most of them have potential. There's some kind of hook for most of them that sets it apart slightly, whether it's a new genre mash-up (Thor, GL, and Cap America all have some new wrinkles for superhero movies, Cowboys and Aliens sounds like a hoot), or a creative bit of casting (Ian McShane, Harrison Ford), or a director worth paying some attention to (Abrams, Malick,Vaughn, Favreau). But I can't really say I'm too optimistic for any of them, other than Captain America, and that could still go south pretty quick. 

 

So I'll do some guessing. I think the overall winner, box office-wise, is gonna be Harry Potter. It's going to make like 400 million dollars or something. I'd say after that will be Transformers and Cars, and then quite possibly Thor, based on that great unopposed first week of May slot and no competition until Pirates comes out. Cap could slip in by being awesome (it's got a highly marketable premise, I think, though time will tell). Super Eight could really go just about any way. I see X Men, Green Lantern, Hangover and Kung Fu Panda being solid but not huge (200ish for each?). I think Pirates gets it in the ass, as far as it goes, and probably ends the franchise. Also DOA: Cowboys and Aliens, unless it moves a couple weeks back into August, which I think will totally happen.

 

As far as quality goes, I'm hoping for Captain America to be the best of the summer. It has the chance to be really damn good, and every choice they're making seems to be working out. That super bowl trailer really added some nice elements to the mix; the Red Skull and Dum Dum look great, but so does the 98lb weakling plotline. That was something that didn't sound so hot conceptually, but they did a good job selling it in 30 seconds, so fingers crossed. Also, the cast is stacked on this thing. Evans and Weaving should be a lot of fun, but you've also got Tucci, Toby Jones, Neil McDonough, and Tommy Lee Jones. It's my most anticipated, so far.

 

After that, I think Cowboys Vs Aliens might be the most promising, actually. Again, great cast, and a director that I generally have a lot of faith in to handle this kind of material. It just looks like a good idea, and I'd like to see it done well. JJ Abrams seems to be a really good director, especially with handling tone, so there's a chance Super Eight will be just the right kind of nostalgia mixed with story and make for a lot of fun. But who really knows what it is yet? 

 

I'm trying to be optimistic about Thor and Harry Potter. I like Branagh, and vikings, so I'm quite content to let that one play out with an open mind. The last Potter didn't do a whole bunch for me, but it seems like it would be pretty hard to fuck up the end of that book, given the competence they've demonstrated with this series. We haven't seen near enough of X Men to even really guess at it, but I'm not very enthusiastic about it. And Green Lantern is more of a 'why not?' kind of deal for me than something to get very up for. Cars 2 will probably be way better than it has any right being, but there's got a be a ceiling on how good it can reasonably get. Larry the Cable Guy, and such. Probably not looking at another Wall-E.

 

I'm betting Pirates is terrible. I wanted for them to pull it off here, what with McShane and all (plus, it's got pirates!), but this does have a bit of a blase stink on it. It might just not have much to show yet, but seeing the ads, and remembering they slashed the budget on this, the whole thing does feel like they might just be trying to pull a fast one here. Due Date convinced me that Hangover 2 will likely be terrible and contrived, like a Vince Vaughn film. And Transformers will probably be better than the last one, maybe a lot better, but I expect it will still be an overwhelming and exhaustive ordeal without much to really care about. I hope it doesn't have Grimlock in it, because then I might have to check it out.

 

That's some gut instincts. Should be fun to see how it plays out.

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post #2 of 46
2/7/11 at 9:52am

At this point, I'm thinking it's a foregone conclusion Yates nailed the last Potter.

 

My biggest animated worry is actually Kung Fu Panda. There's a million ways for them to fuck that franchise up.

 

Pirates benefits from having May mostly to itself, in terms of giant budgeted eye candy, unless Thor really hits the mark with the mainstream, which I don't see it doing, despite how optimistic I am. Regardless, how shitty At World's End turned out to be is causing us to underestimate how much Pirates is still a beloved franchise. That film will do bank. Serious, possibly.

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post #3 of 46
2/7/11 at 10:03am
Thread Starter 

I think the shittiness of At World's End is what hurts this one. There was a lot of goodwill for that franchise at one point, but the overwhelming reaction to AWE, as I read it, was that people were pretty much done with the whole thing. If the movie turns out better than expected, I suppose it could still turn it around. But you're right, it is just sitting there on its own in late May.

 

And yeah, I doubt very much they're going to deliver a great sequel to Kung Fu Panda. Dreamworks just doesn't do that kind of thing.

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post #4 of 46
2/7/11 at 10:07am

People do realise that Captain America's being directed by Joe Johnston right?

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post #5 of 46
2/7/11 at 11:18am

The one ray of hope/point of interest in Kung Fu Panda 2 is that Charlie Kaufman worked on the screenplay. In theory, there's a lot of interesting stuff they could do with a Kung Fu Panda franchise, and Dreamworks has recently proved they do have the ability to make decent movies...but unfortunately Megamind, while not terrible, showed them slipping back into their old, bad habits. I remember reading about how a number of animation studios in the 90s, including Disney and Warner Brothers, tended to accumulate more and more producers the more successful they were, and these guys had a tendency to drag out the same damn ideas over and over again in the name of "making their mark", causing animated movies to get more and more soulless and generic. And then when they bombed, the producers dove for cover, like in that Mister Show sketch. That's why WB was able to follow up Quest for Camelot with The Iron Giant--Brad Bird was basically being left alone to do his thing. I think something vaguely similar happened with Dreamworks--they weren't able to get any franchises started up except Shrek, so the creatives were more in control for Kung Fu Panda and How to Train Your Dragon. Now that those were successful, the leeches are starting to attach themselves again. Maybe. Who knows, though. Feature animation has always had a problem with being an assembly-line, with the directors being hired hands.

 

Anyway, Kung Fu Panda 2 is going to be a monster. I wouldn't be surprised if it beats Cars 2, actually.

 

Thor is also going to be big, I've decided, mostly because of the release date, but there's enough cool shit in the trailer to get people in. Hell, I haven't given up on it being decent, unlike a lot of people around here. It depends on how much of it is budget-saving "driving around the desert" escapades and how much of it is battling frost giants in Asgard.

 

I also haven't given up on Green Lantern. As crummy as some of the visuals look, the director is Martin fucking Campbell. If Joe Johnston gets a pass for some of the stuff he's done, Campbell gets double.

 

Transformers 3 I predict will do well, but it won't be the juggernaut the first two were. I think the second one pissed off enough people, even the kind of people who found the first one entertaining, that the excitement level's been muted. And every time the trailer's aired, and revealed to be a Transformers trailer, the audience I'm with groans loudly (and I've heard this from lots of other people as well.) I think people were more interested in the movie they were promising that appeared to be about the secret adventures of Neil Armstrong.

 

I'd like to think Cap will do well, and I think they're selling it well so far, but they're a little confused with whether this is a Captain America movie or a prequel to a movie a lot of people don't know exists yet. I realize "Captain America" is a hard sell overseas, but in the US, why not just wave the flag like crazy?

 

Yeah, Pirates isn't going to be a smash, though it's being snuck in early enough and removed enough from everything that it might do OK. It's going to have to make all its money before Kung Fu Panda 2, though.

 

Has Dreamworks ever beat Pixar at the BO when going head-to-head within the same season? If not, Cars 2 might be the one to break that trend. Disney likes Cars because the merchandise always cleans up, but I don't think there's much excitement among people who aren't little boys.

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post #6 of 46
2/7/11 at 11:21am

I'm going to go out on a limb and say the Cowboys & Aliens stomps all over Thor, X-Men, Green Lantern and Captain America at the box office.  Ladies will turn out for C&A in much bigger numbers than the comic book films.   

 

Potter and Cars 2 take the summer, though. 

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post #7 of 46
2/7/11 at 11:40am

I don't know what's going to happen with COWBOYS & ALIENS. I think a lot of normals are still laughing at the concept and title at this point. And people aren't going to come out in droves just because Daniel Craig and Harrison Ford are dressed up as Cowboys. 

 

I think people are underestimating HANGOVER 2. It could be the biggest hit of May. The 1st one is a Rated R movie that  almost made 300 million domestic.

CARS 2 will probably be the biggest moneymaker in June, sadly.

Either Potter or Transformers will take July.

As for August....who cares.

 

The summer movie I'm looking forward to the most is CAPTAIN AMERICA. I don't know if it'll be a massive hit, but I think it'll do well enough in the states *and* overseas.

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post #8 of 46
2/7/11 at 11:43am

Thor will battle middling to disastrous reviews & limp to $100m-$120m. Cowboys & Aliens will be solid but forgettable summer entertainment & won't get past $150m domestically but it'll do healthy Wanted  business overseas. Cap will hit with generally positive reviews & get past $200m fairly easily. Green Lantern's gonna BOMB.

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post #9 of 46
2/7/11 at 11:52am
Quote:
Originally Posted by The Prankster View Post

The one ray of hope/point of interest in Kung Fu Panda 2 is that Charlie Kaufman worked on the screenplay.

 

Has Dreamworks ever beat Pixar at the BO when going head-to-head within the same season?


The first Shrek beat Monsters' Inc; the second beat, I believe, The Incredibles.

Also, interest officially piqued on Kung Fu Panda. How much of him shows up onscreen will be the test.

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post #10 of 46
2/7/11 at 12:13pm

Thor will probably pull an Iron Man 2. It almost doesn't matter if it's any good, people will be ready for the summer blockbuster season, and there's no competition for weeks. Unless it's really bad, it'll clear $200 mill. I'm also expecting it to be, at worst, similar to Iron Man 2 in structure--some cool shit sprinkled amongst a draggy, get-on-with-it-already storyline. That would be bad, but not bad enough to kill it at the box office.

 

And honestly, at this point, given all the stuff we've caught a glimpse of (latest addition: a monster) I'm not seeing how they can spend THAT much time wandering around the desert.

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post #11 of 46
2/7/11 at 12:26pm
Thread Starter 

It's easy to forget with juggernauts like Pirates, Potter, and Transformers, but with some of the newer properties (Thor, Cowboys, Cap'n), how good the movie ends up really does effect the box office. It would be nice if Thor ended up being a lot of fun, so I'm not letting an trailer that's merely average get me doubting, yet.

 

Something this summer is really missing is a Chris Nolan type movie. Nothing with a more mature edge, not even a Dark Knight clone.

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post #12 of 46
2/7/11 at 3:15pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by Arjen Rudd View Post

Something this summer is really missing is a Chris Nolan type movie. Nothing with a more mature edge, not even a Dark Knight clone.


Those are always pretty rare, though, aren't they?

 

Anyway, Tree of Life. And, opening too early for summer, but still in that spirit, The Adjustment Bureau and Source Code.

 

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post #13 of 46
2/7/11 at 3:17pm

X-Men Origins will be the best superhero movie of the summer

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post #14 of 46
2/7/11 at 3:29pm

The only predictions I'm comfortable making right now are that THE HANGOVER 2 will be ginormous and that COWBOYS & ALIENS will underperform significantly. Everything else is TBD. It's pretty early to be talking about this.

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post #15 of 46
2/7/11 at 3:33pm


This is a great point. Campbell is the one thing that's keeping me from giving up on possible quality, though I'm still thinking it's going to be the odd man out among this summer's superhero crop.

Quote:
Originally Posted by The Prankster View Post

I also haven't given up on Green Lantern. As crummy as some of the visuals look, the director is Martin fucking Campbell. If Joe Johnston gets a pass for some of the stuff he's done, Campbell gets double.

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post #16 of 46
2/7/11 at 4:35pm

Olivia Wilde aside, I am still not sure about COWBOYS AND ALIENS. You do realise the premise is like something out of those Sy Fy Channel Movies we see nowadays?

 

TRANSFORMERS should do big bucks as per nornal. The shittiness of the last entry aside, the fervant fanbase and 3D will give this entry big numbers.

 

PRIEST will probably end up being the LEGION of 2011.

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post #17 of 46
2/9/11 at 8:28pm

I'm not going to bother guessing BO returns, cause really, who the heck knows.

 

For quality though, I'm cautiously optimistic about X-Men: First Class. I probably shouldn't be. It's the dreaded reboot and all that, but I really feel like this could be really good, mostly because I really like Matthew Vaughn. While it's tough to match Patrick Steward and Ian McKellan as Xavier and Magneto, the cast looks pretty strong with McAvoy, Lawrence and Fassbender. Also, January Jones as Emma Frost should probably sell a few tickets. Maybe it's just naive hope that this will finally make me forget the monstrosity that was X3.

 

I'm skeptical of Green Lantern, despite my man-crush on Ryan Reynolds. I hope so very, very much that it is good, but the trailer certainly didn't win me over.

 

Maybe I'm just weird, but I'm actually really excited to see what Pixar does with Cars 2. Now, maybe it'll be as straightforward and commercial as Cars was, but with Pixar's track record I'm thinking they take this opportunity to redeem their weakest effort to date.

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post #18 of 46
2/9/11 at 10:08pm

Matthew Vaughn is 3 for 3 as a director so, whatever he's done with X-Men, the film should at least work (really, really well).

 

The big selling point for me is the period setting but otherwise it's difficult to get excited about an X-Men film without the heavy-hitters. No Wolvie or Colossus? No problem, that's not the story they're telling. But no Cyclops, Jean, Iceman, or Angel of the original five? Sure, whatever. But that drops the film pretty far down my summer list of must-see's.

 

Question is, will the droves that went to the first X-trilogy want to pluck down $ for an X-film without any, ya know, X-Men?

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post #19 of 46
4/29/11 at 6:06am

Maybe its just me. But I can't seem to get worked up for the Releases this year. Theres not that "One Film" like "The Expendables" or "Tron: Legacy" from last year that I am eagerly looking forward to.

 

I am a little curious of TRANSFORMERS 3, CAPTAIN AMERICA and CONAN though.   

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post #20 of 46
5/2/11 at 2:02am

Saw an ad for Pirates 4 and realised it's only two weeks away. Feels like there's zero buzz on the film.

 

No mention of Fast Five in this thread. Turned out the be the film to beat this summer.

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post #21 of 46
5/2/11 at 10:01am

 

Quote:
Originally Posted by alobek View Post

Saw an ad for Pirates 4 and realised it's only two weeks away. Feels like there's zero buzz on the film.

 

No mention of Fast Five in this thread. Turned out the be the film to beat this summer.


Anecdotally, I know a good number of people who are anticipating PIRATES. Granted, they're people with questionable cinematic taste and mostly female, hence just wanting more Sparrow/Depp, but there are more filmgoers like that than there are of me, so....

 

And FAST FIVE has done well but it's hardly proven itself to have legs or able to earn the kind of numbers any film the rest of the summer has to fight to beat. POTTER VII.2 is the film to beat this summer, I feel confident in predicting.
 

 

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post #22 of 46
5/2/11 at 11:50am

 

Quote:

Originally Posted by MichaelM View Post

POTTER VII.2 is the film to beat this summer, I feel confident in predicting.

 

I feel like the big question there is, will the last film bring in the non-Potter fans curious about all the fuss? I do think a lot of normies who wouldn't normally bother are going to want to be a part of the end of some major pop culture phenomenon. I'm thinking a smooth billion worldwide.
 

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post #23 of 46
5/2/11 at 2:48pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by Gabe T View Post

 

I feel like the big question there is, will the last film bring in the non-Potter fans curious about all the fuss? I do think a lot of normies who wouldn't normally bother are going to want to be a part of the end of some major pop culture phenomenon. I'm thinking a smooth billion worldwide.
 



You mean "normies" like me, who haven't seen any of the films all the way through, nevermind theatrically? I certainly have no interest. I'm sure it will do great, maybe the best out of all of them, but I have a difficult time believing that the spike will be all that significant.

 

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post #24 of 46
5/2/11 at 6:06pm

I'd count myself as a casual viewer of the series....saw some of them in the theater, was entertained, but never read the books or got into the mythology in a big way. Skipped Part 1 of Deathly Hollows. just 'cause I knew Part 2 was coming and the two parts would be shown together. Also the reviews of Part 1 described it as "half a movie" so why see it until it's whole? And I'm sure there are other who feel the same as me...so there's a third "constituency" for you.

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post #25 of 46
5/3/11 at 11:45pm
Thread Starter 

I think what puts the last Potter over the top will be repeat business. It's going to be all payoff, and there will be some marketing material about this being the last chance to see these characters, etc.

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post #26 of 46
5/4/11 at 12:14am
It looks like FAST FIVE could make $500 million worldwide. Amazing. Especially considering F & F only made $350 and was mediocre.
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post #27 of 46
5/4/11 at 9:11am

Saw Thor last week and it was a great start to the summer for me and entertaining with a capital E but shallow as a puddle. I can sum up the rest of the summer as follows:

 

What will rock:

 

Captain America

X men first class

Super 8

Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows part 2

Don't be afraid of the dark

30 minutes or less

 

What will suck:

Pirates 4

Priest

Rise of the Planet of the Apes

Conan

The Hangover part two

 

No Idea either way:

 

Green Lantern

Kung Fu Panda 2

Transformers 3

Cowboys and Aliens

 

 

 

 

 

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post #28 of 46
5/4/11 at 10:27am
Quote:
Originally Posted by Lloyd Dobler View Post

Saw Thor last week and it was a great start to the summer for me and entertaining with a capital E but shallow as a puddle. I can sum up the rest of the summer as follows:

 

What will rock:

X men first class


 

Here are the facts about X-Men: First Class...

1) Gangwritten by like twenty people.

2) Rushed into production with a skimpy shooting schedule.

3) From a studio that has just made two unwatchable X-Men movies.
4) Prequels are generally awful.

 

Those are a truckload of obstacles for this film to overcome. I remain skeptical.

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post #29 of 46
5/4/11 at 11:48am
I think Jane Goldman did a rewrite and the two other hacks involved probably have a semblance of their work in the final product so get their Wga due.

The team involved have a great track record so I remain optimistic
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post #30 of 46
5/4/11 at 12:28pm

From what I can tell, it was Josh Schwartz' baby, then Bryan Singer interjected some ideas, then Jamie Moss wrote a draft with Ashley Miller, then Zack Stentz, and finally, Vaughn brought on Goldman. And the earliest incarnations were that it WASN'T going to be a period piece. Also, there's a story-by credit for Sheldon Turner, which means they probably copy-pasted stuff from his original "Magneto" script that no one used. So yeah, gangwritten.

 

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post #31 of 46
5/4/11 at 2:10pm
Hmmmm I'll withhold judgement until I see it but you have a point...
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post #32 of 46
5/4/11 at 2:38pm

I predict that First Class will turn out to be a handsomely directed, choppily edited, under-developed, & immediaterly forgettable mess.

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post #33 of 46
5/4/11 at 2:42pm

Oh fucking god, Priest...Jesus, that's still coming out? Comic In Name Only, literally. I can't find a single damn thing from any of the released material that looks even remotely like the books, save for the desert setting, I suppose.

 

Paul Bettany! Make better movies!

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post #34 of 46
5/4/11 at 11:22pm

i have already seen the THOR and now i am eagerly looking forward towards   priest, hangover2, kung fu panda 2.....biggrin.gif

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post #35 of 46
5/5/11 at 2:58am

Priest is out here tomorrow in the UK.....predictably there have been no critic screenings or reviews in any of the usual spots....

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post #36 of 46
5/9/11 at 9:24pm

Anyone else think that The Green Lantern is gonna be one of the biggest failures of the summer? Just doesn't appear to have mainstream appeal. I predict it will be number one for its weekend (don't know what it's up against), but will have disappointing overall numbers and not get its sequel. I will have to see how they market this thing.

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post #37 of 46
5/10/11 at 12:14am

I think Green Lantern'll turn out nicely. It's big, it's bright, it's Star Wars sci-fi opera-esque. I'm holding out hopes for First Class to be a return to form for the series, but I've been burned twice now, and my heart is fragile when it comes to X-Men. There seems to be a general feeling of apathy towards this entry, which has me worried it'll be good but not good enough to turn the hate around, thus giving Vaughn his second solid studio effort that ends up bombing anyway.

 

I don't know how it's going to fare overseas, but Captain America is going to be a beast when it opens, I think. But then, I'm also holding out hope that Transformers 2 was enough to make people say "fuck Transformers 3," but people are slurping up that spoiled milk anyway. So who knows.

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post #38 of 46
5/10/11 at 2:07am
Quote:
Originally Posted by Art Decade View Post

I predict that First Class will turn out to be a handsomely directed, choppily edited, under-developed, & immediaterly forgettable mess.


It is directed by the guy who gave us Layer Cake, Stardust and Kick-Ass. None of which were remotely forgettable, choppily edited, or under-developed. I think I'll give the dude the benefit of the doubt, eh?

 

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post #39 of 46
5/10/11 at 3:20am

I think FIRST CLASS will do better than THOR and GREEN LANTERN, but not as well as CAPTAIN AMERICA. I also agree that LANTERN will likely tank, even if it wins its weekend. No sequel - at least, no theatrical release sequel. I could see the franchise going the DTV/direct to streaming route, with lower budget and lower tier stars.

 

Still contend that POTTER VII.2 is the picture to beat this summer.

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post #40 of 46
5/10/11 at 5:45am

Is Transformers 3 going to be in 3D? That could make up for the lag in numbers between it and Transformers 2, pushing it to one of the top flicks of the summer.

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post #41 of 46
5/10/11 at 5:52am

I am really waiting for this summer to release all those super hit movies. I already saw Thor and Fats 5.I really like these two movies.Now I am waiting for rest of the movies. But guys I think You people missed a very nice movie which name is Mia and the Migoo.Its an animation movie and very nice movie to watch with your whole family.You can Download Mia and the Migoo Movie here.

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post #42 of 46
5/10/11 at 5:56am

Navidson, Yes! Transformers 3, was...Shot In 3D, as well.  None of this...post conversion garbage!

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post #43 of 46
5/10/11 at 5:59am

Wow dude its a great news.I really didnt have any idea about the 3D version of transformer 3.Now I will surely watch this movie in 3D.

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post #44 of 46
5/13/11 at 8:09am
Quote:
Originally Posted by Phil Connors View Post




It is directed by the guy who gave us Layer Cake, Stardust and Kick-Ass. None of which were remotely forgettable, choppily edited, or under-developed. I think I'll give the dude the benefit of the doubt, eh?

 



What he said.

 

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post #45 of 46
6/19/11 at 9:13pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by Navidson View Post

Anyone else think that The Green Lantern is gonna be one of the biggest failures of the summer? Just doesn't appear to have mainstream appeal. I predict it will be number one for its weekend (don't know what it's up against), but will have disappointing overall numbers and not get its sequel. I will have to see how they market this thing.


I don't know about biggest failure of the summer, but it's looking good for my latter predictions.

 

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post #46 of 46
6/19/11 at 9:18pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by Phil Connors View Post

It is directed by the guy who gave us Layer Cake, Stardust and Kick-Ass. None of which were remotely forgettable, choppily edited, or under-developed. I think I'll give the dude the benefit of the doubt, eh?

 


Dammit, I meant Green Lantern!  Or maybe I just prefer to eat shoe. I'm off to Arby's!

 

I actually love/own all of the above titles & my prediction on the outcome of X:FC was more of an over-estimation of the fuck-uptitude of Fox's involvement rather than a commentary on the abilities of Matthew Vaughan. Dude is 4 for 4 & Layer Cake is in my All-Time Top 10.


Edited by Art Decade - 6/19/11 at 9:45pm
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