127 Hours is the only movie, other than maybe Inception, that truly thrilled me. To take a story that sounded basically unfilmable and turn into something visceral, frightening, and deliriously hopeful(toeing the line of almost being too much so) is something deserving of Best Picture. My wife almost passed out and my buddy's wife had to leave the theater during the arm cutting scene. When a movie provokes that kind of reaction because you care about the character, and not just because it is gross, that is pretty much what great films should be able to do. Unfortunately, this is exactly the type of thing that has kept it well away from being a front runner.
Social Network was impressive and I thoroughly enjoyed it, but I didn't leave the theater feeling that I had just seen something extraordinary. That being said, I would not be upset, at all, if it won. I think it is a film that should be remembered, and I have a feeling that the more I watch it, the more I will appreciate it.
Black Swan, as others have pointed out was dazzling, but ultimately was way too predictable. The subtext was the text and I knew where the movie was headed very early on in the film. That didn't stop me from enjoying it but I could take with a little bit less of "you need to let go of yourself"...I got it the first time you said it, and maybe it shouldn't have even been said at all.
The King's Speech was good, but 15 minutes in all I could think about was how it was basically Good Will Hunting with a stutter...er....stammer. Plus, the speech at the end didn't pay off for me as I found myself staring off into space for so long that I missed almost all the text at the end of the movie.
Also, the trailer for Boyle's stage version of Frankenstein is titties...