Guess this year's Oscar Nominees

Brad Pitt will be nominated (and lose) either Best Actor for Moneyball or Best Supporting for Tree Of Life.

J. Edgar will be conspicuously locked out of all noms.

Meryl Streep & Glenn Close will split the vote for Best Actress & either newbie Rooney Mara or Elizabeth Olsen will pull ahead & get the win.

John Hawkes is this year's Chris Cooper & will win Best Supporting Actor by a hair.

Midnight In Paris will win..something.

Ryan Gosling will get nominated Best Actor for Drive.

The Help will get 2 or 3 Best Supporting Actress nominations.

With J. Edgar, the subject is so unlikeable & the film appears so dour, I don't see it kicking up much Oscar dust, even with DiCaprio. I think the film will land with a respectable thud like Stone's Nixon or Devito's Hoffa.

Tree Of Life is my favorite film of the year so far & I'd be over moon if it got nominated for any of the big 5.

I think Jessica Chastain is a LOCK for Best Actress or Supporting for Take Shelter. It's written in Hollywood stone that she'll get nominated for something this year & I think that'll be it.

If Iron Lady is a crowd pleaser, it'll get the Queen/King's Speech Best Picture nod easily.

At this juncture, I'm just going with Best Picture predictions.  Based on their goofy new system, I'm going to guess we get 7 nominees instead of 10.  Just 'cause.

Best Pictures 2011:

The War Horse

Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close

The Artist

The Descendants

Tinker, Tailor, Solider, Spy

The Help

Midnight in Paris

Bonus guess:   New York Film Critics Circle goes to The Tree of Life

Kirsten Dunst with be nominated for Melancholia.

Unless Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close actually takes off as a grief porn hit for middle America, I find it hard to think it will get much more than a nomination or two. But then, he's directed exactly one film I thought was worth a damn (Billy Elliot), so maybe I'm just allergic.

Albert Brooks or Bryan Cranston will be the only thing Drive gets, sadly. My money's on Brooks, though it's just a matter of time before someone finally gives Cranston a juicy feature film role and he kills it. Maybe after Breaking Bad is finished.

Tree of Life will rack up a ton of nominations, but only go home with a few technicals (cinematography and art direction are my guesses). Chastain and Pitt will land supporting noms, but will have to wait for another year, another film. For Pitt, it's going to be the film where he finally "goes for" the Oscar, and for Chastain...well, she just landed this year, so there will be another time. She's more than proven herself and lived up to the hype (unlike this year's big letdown, Olivia Wilde), so there's gas left in that tank.

I would love to see Jennifer Ehle get a nomination for CONTAGION. She was the beating heart of a surprisingly hopeful film, and it was so understated that I fear no one will take notice. My guess, though, is it gets a screenplay and cinematography nod, with maybe a sneak of Matt Damon or Fishburne in the supporting category.

My long shot, it will never happen BUT what if pick? Saoirse Ronan for HANNA.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Greg Clark 

My long shot, it will never happen BUT what if pick? Saoirse Ronan for HANNA.

Holy shit YES. She was flawless.

Oldman not only gets his first nomination for TTSS but wins, too. He's the Jeff Bridges of this season.

Viola Davis is being pushed in the Lead Actress category. Ergo, I bet she wins, mostly for suffering the indignity of starring in "The Help."  I haven't seen "Coriolanus" but everything I've heard about Vanessa Redgrave suggests everyone is ready to give Best Supporting Actress to her as well.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Greg Clark 

 

My long shot, it will never happen BUT what if pick? Saoirse Ronan for HANNA.

My pipe-dream long shot wish for Supporting Actress:   Ellen Page for SUPER.    

Never will happen, but I can dream. 

In a perfect world, Refn, von Trier, and Malick would all be getting nominated for Best Director, with one of them winning.  

Quote:

Originally Posted by bob loblaw 

 

Agreed.  And its amazing to me that this would be his first Oscar nomination.

 

I always forget that he wasn't even nominated for The Contender after everyone and their mother claimed he was favored to win.

Was it at the Golden Globes a few years back when he accepted Heath Ledger's award for The Dark Knight?  That was a nice emotional moment.  

Next year will have not one clear winner. So many contenders:

The Help, Coriolanus, Albert Nobbs, War Horse, Carnage, Drive, Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy, Martha Marcy May Marlene, The Artist, The Ides of March, Shame, The Descendants, J. Edgar, Take Shelter, Shame, The Iron Lady, Midnight in Paris, Beginners, A Dangerous Method, My Week with Marilyn, The Tree of Life, Moneyball, all of them flicks that fit the Oscar mold. Every one of them could be the sudden standout winner. Many might only get one statue.

I think that's actually great, guessing might be fun again. Hopefully Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close will not be among them.

Anyone still believing Serkis might get a nod? At least the Apes need the beat Transformers 3 in the FX category.




 

Anyone have any doubt Tintin is going to take the Animated Feature award?

The best way to think about the Best Picture race is to imagine you're sitting down with your whole family and watching all these movies.  Which ones will most of them like that still have the air of respectability?  Those are the most likely nominees.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Chris Myers 

I think that's actually great, guessing might be fun again. Hopefully Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close will not be among them.

War Horse. The Artist. The Descendants. Extremely Loud, Incredibly Close.

Those are the four main contenders. Guaranteed.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Richard Dickson 

Anyone have any doubt Tintin is going to take the Animated Feature award?

I used to think "Happy Feet Two" was a lock and would beat "Cars 2" just like the first Happy Feet movie beat the first Cars movie, but apparently it's a flop, so now Tintin is probably the most likely winner. Having seen Tintin, I still think "Winnie the Pooh" deserves to win more, but it's another movie that probably won't win just because it didn't make much money, and that's a shame.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Ratty 

 

Was it at the Golden Globes a few years back when he accepted Heath Ledger's award for The Dark Knight?  That was a nice emotional moment.  

 

Looks like it was for the SAG award. 

I didn't even realize that Happy Feet 2 came out until I saw it playing at the theater when I went to see something else.  It's only hitting about $30 million after a week in release.  Not so good.

Directors Steve Mcqueen, Alexander Payne, Jason Reitman and others chat for an hour about movies:

http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/gallery/thrs-awards-season-roundtable-series-265450#4 

Even better, George Clooney, Christopher Plummer, Gary Oldman, Chastoph Waltz, Albert Brooks and Nick Nolte...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2AdcUdpCKn4

Quote:

Originally Posted by Bluelouboyle 

Even better, George Clooney, Christopher Plummer, Gary Oldman, Chastoph Waltz, Albert Brooks and Nick Nolte...

 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2AdcUdpCKn4

Holy shit, Nick Nolte has officially turned into Sydney Greenstreet!