THE HOBBIT TRAILER IS… - Page 4

Jackson had expressed some reluctance about returning, yes, but looking at the production diaries, I would say that his enthusiasm is still there regardless.  Any issues he took with stepping forward as the director yet again seem to have evaporated, since all indications are that he's not bringing anything less than the A-game he brought to the original trilogy.

     Quote:

Originally Posted by Gabe T 

What's the ultimate legacy of LOTR?

Last winter, at my half-sister's sorority house? A three-day festival of the Peter Jackson flicks.

Quite well attended, too, reportedly, in large part by "hot" 18-to-22-year-old females.

Prior to 2001-03, the very notion of J.R.R. Tolkien and Greek coeds somehow crossing paths on this plane of existence would've been downright unthinkable.

I don't know, I always felt that if you're spearheading a multi-year, multi-million dollar production involving thousands of people and the collective hopes of millions of fan worldwide and the financial future of an entire country, you can get over your initial hesitation, which probably had more to do with the enormous scope of the project than any real disinterest. I think Jackson is probably going to show up for this one.

Also, how come none of you so-called tolkien nerds have mentioned that the dwarves wanted Bilbo because they were numbered thirteen and they needed another member to stave off bad luck! They're very clear about this!

I'll be on board with this until they demonstrably fuck it up, which I don't see happening, especially after that trailer.

Looking fantastic so far.

Aren't there 14 already if you include Gandalf before Bilbo joins up?

Do the dwarves have a size-ist thing going on?

Quote:

Originally Posted by Arjen Rudd 

Also, how come none of you so-called tolkien nerds have mentioned that the dwarves wanted Bilbo because they were numbered thirteen and they needed another member to stave off bad luck! They're very clear about this!

True, but that was why they were adding a 14th member at all, not Bilbo specifically.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Richard Dickson 

It is kind of sad that the boundless enthusiasm with which the Fellowship trailer was met has become, "Yawn, another Middle-earth movie."  And by the same crowd who'll gladly lap up the same Modern Warfare game done three times in a row with the number following it being the only real difference.

I bet those people were all, "Oh man Season 4 of The Wire is lame because they're telling a different part of the same story but they're using the same look".

I just rewatched that FELLOWSHIP teaser and then the full trailer and both have better structure and pacing than this trailer

And both are marketing what was at the time an unknown cinematic quantity.  The Hobbit doesn't have that issue.  Middle-earth is a cinematic brand now.

Aside from that, I think the structure of this trailer is pretty spot on, and in a way mirrors the structure of the book.  We start off light and pastoral, then the dwarf song transitions us into a more somber, darker world, after which Shore's score expands into the epic along with the images.  Which echoes Bilbo's journey pretty much to a T.

You know what really winds me up about this Hobbit bashing.

I am someone who loved the first "Rings" movie but is not all that fussed about the rest and yet I find myself really looking forward to this filck. And that is from a place of apprehension about the project.

So I really, really don't get why people don't see something magical in that trailer.

This will be the top grossing film of 2012 unless Jackson really fucks it up. Everyone will be going next Christmas.

More than Dark Knight Rises?

Quote:

Originally Posted by neoolong 

More than Dark Knight Rises?

After another year of markets going in the toilet, financial and social unrest and a world looking even more dark and uncertain than it does right now?

More than Dark Knight Rises.

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Originally Posted by Warren Peace 

I'm not sure it's the trailer's job to get people who are "meh" on LOTR interested. I think they're wise to target those who, y'know, like the three previous films.

This is by no means a rule, just one man's opinion but I believe a great trailer is one that makes a film look great and piques interest in said movie. This trailer (and again, just an opinion the TRAILER not the film that no one has seen) doesn't really do anything to make the film look any good, it just winks to the audience and says "Hey look! More of that stuff you liked!". Again, its perfect a marketing choice but without the goodwill previous movies and books have garnered there is nothing in the trailer worth getting excited for.

Count me in "The Hobbit will make more than The Dark Knight Rises" group. And, truthfully, I think it's a pretty safe bet.

Not domestically it won't.  Worldwide, of course.

Return of the King adjusts to $489m.  I don't expect The Hobbit to hit that, as it won't have the awards juice behind it and the lighter tone could put some people off.  I'd say $400m for The Hobbit, $440m for Dark Knight Rises.

Worldwide, yes. Domestically? No, Americans love their Batman and WB has their hook(s) to get asses in seats for Dark Knight Rises (i.e. that broken Bat cowl, the exploding football field, pushing the finality of the Nolan/Bale iteration of the franchise, etc.) not even including the simple fact that Begins and Dark Knight were so popular.

Both will do $1 billion, let's be honest.

Double post. Fuck me.

Quote:

Originally Posted by FilmNerdJamie 

Both will do $1 billion, let's be honest.

I think The Hobbit could do $1.2b outside the U.S.  Lord of the Rings audience + overseas explosion + 3D?  Holy fuck.

Quote:

Originally Posted by The Dark Shape 

I think The Hobbit could do $1.2b outside the U.S.  Lord of the Rings audience + overseas explosion + 3D?  Holy fuck.

Yep. 3D is still big overseas.

Also Dark Knight Rises will be the first Batman flick to make more overseas than in the states. In fact, I'd say it'll be the reverse of the second film's grosses, i.e. $400+ domestic and $500+ foreign.

I love how the rest of the world of billions of people is still seen as a secondary market to the good old US of A.

You fuckin guys. Honestly.

How much does the US represent in terms of box office compared to the rest of the world?

I'm not saying international isn't important, but when half of the take is from one country, that gets more attention.  Not to mention that just because one studio releases a film in the US, that that studio releases it everywhere else.

About Bilbo and Gandalf:

Gandalf technically isn't an official member of the hunting party, so Bilbo is the 14th member. Gandalf puts a mark on Bilbo's door (or maybe it was always there, dunno) about a thief/burglar for hire. And Bilbo isn't quite the homebody he would like to be.  He slips up and tells Gandalf how interesting things are when he's around (before correcting himself and saying how horrible things happen with Gandalf's around).

Quote:

Originally Posted by neoolong 

How much does the US represent in terms of box office compared to the rest of the world?

I think typically the US is about 30-35% and international 65-70% for blockbusters. For example Avatar was 28/72, Harry Potter 8 was 29/71, Inception 35/65.

The LOTR films all fall in about that 34-37% US range but Batman Begins was 55% US and The Dark Knight was 53%. Comic book films generally take more percentage-wise in the US.

Yeah, about a third of a film's BO being the US is the norm. It would be even a bit lower if all the other major markets didn't have pretty big national film industries of their own to give the US films some competition. And anyone thinking that Rises will out-gross The Hobbit internationally is taking crazy pills. I wouldn't put The Hobbit ending up bigger domestically out of consideration either. Although that will probably get clearer late next spring. If Rises is to repeat what TDK did things should start heating up for it by late April.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Ratty 

A full year of Hobbit-bashing on the horizon.  Jesus Christ.  

Reading comments and message boards on the net about stuff that interests you is like having a little guy sat on your shoulder talking in your ear. Sometimes he'll say something interesting or make you laugh, but he'll also point out that every single thing you look at is shitty and disappointing. You can always argue back, but after a while you might start to wonder whether life would be more pleasant without this relentless downer hanging around all the time, shitting on everything you see.

Quote:

Originally Posted by User_32 

This will be the top grossing film of 2012 unless Jackson really fucks it up. Everyone will be going next Christmas.

Regardless of how well the movie might be made, there is going to be a significant chunk of audience that is fatigued.  There is a decent chunk of "generic" moviegoers that liked the LOTR trilogy until the "dozen or so endings" from ROTK.  I think these people are stupid, but it doesn't mean they haven't soured a bit.  This far into a franchise and so much time between?  It will do fantastic business.  Don't get me wrong.  We are still talking about how many tens of millions of dollars less it may make of the hundreds it will.  I would estimate this will nestle in somewhere between FOTR and TTT.

Weirdly, I have a couple of diehard friends that already refuse to watch this version in anticipation of the inevitable extended cuts.  They are probably full of shit.  They are also morons.

In the end, Batman will be the victor.  A broader group of people have, and always will, love Batman.  The second movie earned a lot of goodwill (still puzzles me why) as well, so the third movie will rock the domestic BO that year.  Hobbit may take worldwide, but it sure as shit isn't getting domestic.  But it is fun to hope!

Don't see how there can be fatigue when the last film will be nine years old by the time Hobbit comes out.  And nobody got fatigued with three straight years of LOTR releases.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Richard Dickson 

Don't see how there can be fatigue when the last film will be nine years old by the time Hobbit comes out.  And nobody got fatigued with three straight years of LOTR releases.

In fact, each movie was more successful than the last.

Nobody here.  No movie fans/geeks did.  But a substantial chunk of the audience are the non-geeky masses.  A few people I know that merely enjoyed LOTR enough to see them in theaters, have already expressed, "Another one?" after seeing or hearing about this trailer.  For them, 3 was almost more than enough.  For us, 3 was too few.

I just think we have seen that audiences start to tune out at a 3rd or 4th sequel.  A few recent franchises prove this.  Again, it's not to say that this movie won't make mountains of money.  I just don't believe it's going to be number one (domestic) next year, and I really don't think it's going to dethrone ROTK or perhaps even TTT.  And definitely not Batman.

But it would be awesome if I am so very wrong. :)

I'm basing this off of the book, obviously, but The Hobbit has a chance to be far more family friendly than any of the LotR films ever were. It's a simpler adventure, though I am sure Jackson and company have darkened it a tad (if not a lot, to foreshadow the coming um, err...shadow). I mean, if the Troll encounter plays out anything like it does in the book, with Gandalf being all wily and whatnot, kids will love it. And since parents (especially parents who were in the late teens/early twenties when the originals came out) love to get out of the house, I'm thinking we could see a little uptick...maybe.

Regardless, I'm sure I'll do my part to boost domestic take by seeing this about a dozen times in theaters.

I wonder if the trolls will speak in the film.  I don't think they have to in order for the sequence to work, but it would be an indicator of the tone.

Also, watching this again, I'm pretty sure that's not Ian Holm in that first shot waving to Frodo, but Freeman made up to look like him.

I can't help but laugh at the idea of a Batman film coming remotely close to top grossing film of the year, let alone one that doesn't even have the pull of a really great villain to boost marketing materials and they've been a LOT lighter on marketing for this than they were on The Dark Knight.

No. Just no. Hobbit is pretty much a slam dunk as far as box office is concerned. If you don't think so you're just not in touch enough with the sensibilities of your average moviegoer, the revenue that the Lord of the Rings films have continued to bring in does not show any signs of fatigue (http://www.blu-ray.com/movies/top.php), and that's including things outside of the films, like the New Zealand tourism economy. I doubt Batman will even do much better than Prometheus, probably won't top The Avengers, might compete well with Man of Steel.

The Hobbit is certainly a slam dunk, but so is TDKR.  The sheer love for The Dark Knight will propel it towards massive success.  That said, I'll be shocked if it pulls in as much as TDK did.  It will be among the top grossers of the year though.  If any of the "Big Three" superhero movies of Summer 2012 has a chance of underperforming, it's The Amazing Spider-Man.

As for Prometheus?  As fantastic as it looks, we have absolutely ZERO way of knowing how it will fare at the box office.  It could just as easily stumble as triumph.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Benny Reno 

 

No. Just no. Hobbit is pretty much a slam dunk as far as box office is concerned. If you don't think so you're just not in touch enough with the sensibilities of your average moviegoer, the revenue that the Lord of the Rings films have continued to bring in does not show any signs of fatigue (http://www.blu-ray.com/movies/top.php), and that's including things outside of the films, like the New Zealand tourism economy. I doubt Batman will even do much better than Prometheus, probably won't top The Avengers, might compete well with Man of Steel.

Your bias is showing. There is no tangible reason to believe that TDKR will fare as poorly as that.

Worldwide Grosses:

Return of the King - 1,119 Million

The Dark Knight - $1,001 Million

Two Towers - 920 Million

Return of the King - 860 Million

Iron Man 2 - 623 Million

Iron Man - 571 Million

Thor - 446 Million

Captain America - 366 Million

Incredible Hulk - 254 Million

Superman Returns - 389 Million

Past performance does not guarantee future success... but it's all we have to go on. 

If Prometheus is marketed well, it will do well... but I can't imagine it reaching Hobbit / TDKR like numbers.

Quote:

Originally Posted by MikeI 

 

Your bias is showing. There is no tangible reason to believe that TDKR will fare as poorly as that.

How do you figure I'm showing bias, and where do you get the idea I'm saying it will do poorly? I didn't say anything about actual numbers...but box office has very little to do with film quality (at least in the first week) and everything to do with successful marketing. TDK pulled in those kind of numbers because of a massively huge marketing campaign, a lot of controversy surrounding the film, and good word of mouth that followed it's release, but it didn't really have a large shelf life, whereas The Lord of the Rings grossed in the billions in dvd/blu-ray sales and still remains one of the top grossing blu-rays, Extended Edition is #1 in the US, both versions are in the top 6 or so worldwide.

I could be very be wrong about TDKR's box office intake compared to other summer tent-pole films, but I just don't see it being the success that TDK was, and certainly don't see it out performing The Hobbit. Not really seeing it anywhere as hyped as TDK was outside of film geek sites such as this, TDK had a lot of people talking about it outside of those circles.

If anything I am over-estimating how well received The Avengers and Man of Steel will be, that's definitely fair to say and doesn't really say anything about my preferences. However I do hear a lot of non uber-film geeks talking about them, which is sad as they seem fairly uninteresting. I'm giving Prometheus the benefit of the doubt because people have been waiting for Ridley Scott to return to the Alien universe for over 3 decades now.

At any rate, I never felt that TDK's box office was as indicative of how much people really love Nolan's take on Batman, as much as it had to do with Ledger's Joker.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Benny Reno 

How do you figure I'm showing bias, and where do you get the idea I'm saying it will do poorly? I didn't say anything about actual numbers...but box office has very little to do with film quality (at least in the first week) and everything to do with successful marketing. TDK pulled in those kind of numbers because of a massively huge marketing campaign, a lot of controversy surrounding the film, and good word of mouth that followed it's release, but it didn't really have a large shelf life, whereas The Lord of the Rings grossed in the billions in dvd/blu-ray sales and still remains one of the top grossing blu-rays, Extended Edition is #1 in the US, both versions are in the top 6 or so worldwide.

 

I could be very be wrong about TDKR's box office intake compared to other summer tent-pole films, but I just don't see it being the success that TDK was, and certainly don't see it out performing The Hobbit. Not really seeing it anywhere as hyped as TDK was outside of film geek sites such as this, TDK had a lot of people talking about outside of those circles.

All but one of your posts is in this thread, and then you assert that TDKR will have, at least, a 70% drop off from The Dark Knight (assuming The Avengers comes in just above the previously highest grossing Marvel film... a reasonable surmise). I smell bias.

I have nothing to say about the relative merits of any of these movies. I am an unabashed Lord of the Rings fan, a leading cheerleader of The Avengers, and eagerly anticipate The Dark Knight Rises. But TDKR will be a Box Office juggernaut... the only sure thing along with The Hobbit. The Avengers has little chance of being on the same level if past performance of Marvel Studios films is any indicator. Ditto Man of Steel. And Prometheus is an absolute cipher. 

Best guess... The Dark Knight Rises is the top grosser in the US, The Hobbit is the top grosser worldwide. That's based on past performance of films in their franchises.

Quote:

Originally Posted by MikeI 

Best guess... The Dark Knight Rises is the top grosser in the US, The Hobbit is the top grosser worldwide. That's based on past performance of films in their franchises.

Agree to disagree, TDK alone does not tell us the whole story of Batman's box office legacy, the film had a lot of pull for various reasons, and a lot of those reasons are not really present in TDKR.

The idea of a Batman movie being the most successful of the year is hardly laughable considering Dark Knight did exactly that. Internationally there's no question The Hobbit will win out, probably by a mile, but in the states it's up in the air. I doubt the new Batman will have the staying power of the last one, but anticipation and goodwill will give it a massive head start. Prometheus will be doing well if it does the kind of business Dark Knight Rises will most likely do in its first couple of weeks, and I'm not convinced it will. And given that superhero movies seem to be on the wane there's no particular reason to assume the new Superman will turn that franchise back into a major player (and that's not a 2012 movie anyway).

Quote:

Originally Posted by Benny Reno 

Agree to disagree, TDK alone does not tell us the whole story of Batman's box office legacy, the film had a lot of pull for various reasons, and a lot of those reasons are not really present in TDKR.

This will be my last post in this thread so as not to derail The Hobbit thread.

1989 - Batman, #1 Domestic

1992 - Batman Returns, #3 Domestic (Behind Aladdin, Home Alone 2)

1995 - Batman Forever, #2 Domestic (Behind Toy Story)

1998 - Batman and Robin, #12 Domestic (one of the most critically reviled films in the history of ever)

2005 - Batman Begins, #8 Domestic (the underperforming theatrical release that got new life on DVD still clocked in at #8)

2008 - The Dark Knight, #1 Domestic (67% higher than the #2 domestic release, Iron Man. 41% higher than Return of the King domestic.)

America really, really, really likes Batman. I'm not just making stuff up to fit a preconceived notion of how the world should be.

One thing we don't know about TDKR is the ending. A depressing one could keep people away from the theaters, and Nolan could well have gone this route - though I'd bet on a bittersweet ending, if I had to.

Anyway, I'm excited about Batman, but I'd trade Batman, Prometheus, and everything else for an earlier release of The Hobbit.

Quote:

Originally Posted by MikeI 

 

This will be my last post in this thread so as not to derail The Hobbit thread.

 

1989 - Batman, #1 Domestic

1992 - Batman Returns, #3 Domestic (Behind Aladdin, Home Alone 2)

1995 - Batman Forever, #2 Domestic (Behind Toy Story)

1998 - Batman and Robin, #12 Domestic (one of the most critically reviled films in the history of ever)

2005 - Batman Begins, #8 Domestic (the underperforming theatrical release that got new life on DVD still clocked in at #8)

2008 - The Dark Knight, #1 Domestic (67% higher than the #2 domestic release, Iron Man. 41% higher than Return of the King domestic.)

 

America really, really, really likes Batman. I'm not just making stuff up to fit a preconceived notion of how the world should be.

I don't think what you're suggesting really shows that at all, there are other factors to consider, such as the fact that Batman films are always hinged on the villain, the villains are always much more interesting than Wayne/Batman and they are marketed as such, but that is not really the case this time around, and I think it will hurt the film's b.o. intake just as it did with Batman Begins.

Jack Nicholson sold Batman 89', Michelle Pffeifer and Danny Devito were heavily marketed for Batman Returns, and Jim Carrey was utterly whored out marketing Batman Forever and he was fresh off of Ace Ventura and The Mask and was heavily bankable at the time. The Dark Knight had a hugely successful viral marketing campaign and was pretty much totally sold on Ledger's performance as the Joker, it certainly did not hurt that he died before the film was released.

I understand that all of those films have performed better in the states than overseas, but I just don't see this as America loves Batman. Where was all this love when Batman: Mask of the Phantasm came out? It grossed something like 5 million. And what was there in 08? Indy 4, Cloverfield, Wall E, Kung Fu Panda, Quantum of Solace, Iron Man, Sex and the City, Hellboy 2, more yawn worthy material from Narnia, Twilight? Nothing really all that eventful by comparison.

I fully expect TDKR to be somewhere in the top 5, but I don't think it's going to perform like TDK.

But yes agreed, enough derailing.

Benny, I want to say this as nicely as I can, but I don't think you know a lick about box office.  When two Batman films have won their year, two others came in second or third, and four of the films broke the biggest opening weekend record, you can't argue that the series isn't huge with audiences.

You thinking The Avengers will outgross TDKR is sort of laughable.  Why, exactly?  Iron Man made 318.  Iron Man 2 made 312.  The Incredible Hulk, Captain America, and Thor all made somewhere in the range of 140-180.  Where is this audience spike coming from that would propel the film over TDKR?  It's not like you can just add all of those films' grosses together.  The people who saw Captain America were the people who saw Thor were a chunk of the people who saw the Iron Man films were the people who will see The Avengers.

Dark Knight Rises could lose almost 40% of The Dark Knight's audience and still top The Avengers.

Quote:

Originally Posted by The Dark Shape 

Benny, I want to say this as nicely as I can, but I don't think you know a lick about box office.  When two Batman films have won their year, two others came in second or third, and four of the films broke the biggest opening weekend record, you can't argue that the series isn't huge with audiences.

 

You thinking The Avengers will outgross TDKR is sort of laughable.  Why, exactly?  Iron Man made 318.  Iron Man 2 made 312.  The Incredible Hulk, Captain America, and Thor all made somewhere in the range of 140-180.  Where is this audience spike coming from that would propel the film over TDKR?  It's not like you can just add all of those films' grosses together.  The people who saw Captain America were the people who saw Thor were a chunk of the people who saw the Iron Man films were the people who will see The Avengers.

Dark Knight Rises could lose almost 40% of The Dark Knight's audience and still top The Avengers.

I said myself that I was probably overestimating The Avengers' box office gross (although I certainly think that Whedon's fanbase is going to propel the film to higher numbers than any related films).

I'm not claiming to be any sort of expert...but any expert would tell you that opening weekends don't tell us anything other than if the marketing was successful, and also I don't think Batman's box office has really shown anything other than hit and miss.

More successful than not sure, honestly I don't expect TDKR returns to flop, not even close, I just don't expect it to perform like TDK did.

There's a difference between "opening" and "playing." Harry Potter and Twilight open. Lord of the Rings played. Batman opens, AND plays.

Bane doesn't have anywhere near the mainstream recognition that the Joker does.  People get excited about the prospect of a Batman/Joker movie.  Batman/Bane sounds too much like inside baseball to too many people.

Remember, just because we know who Bane is doens't mean he's an exciting household name.

But hey, how about that Hobbit trailer, huh?

Quote:

Originally Posted by Benny Reno 

I said myself that I was probably overestimating The Avengers' box office gross (although I certainly think that Whedon's fanbase is going to propel the film to higher numbers than any related films).

You mean that same fanbase that made Serenity open huge and kept Dollhouse on the air?

Fanbases don't propel anything.  Ever.  Avatar didn't make $700 million because of geeks.  Neither did Lord of the Rings or Star Wars.