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Award Season 2012 - Oscars, Globes, etc.

post #1 of 153
11/26/12 at 4:15pm
Thread Starter 

So it's gearing up, and they're going to start nominating things. Here's a place to handicap, predict, and so forth. It's the box office game of the winter season!

 

Here's my early, sure to be wrong bets for the Best Picture race.

 

Argo

Beasts of the Southern Wilds (in the Winter's Bone slot)

Django Unchained

The Impossible

Les Miserables

Life of Pi

Lincoln

Silver Linings Playbook

Zero Dark Thirty

 

I think The Master misses the cut, or may take Beasts or Django out of it.

 

Django is the biggest question mark, and I doubt very much it's in real contention, but it sounds like it might make the short list.

 

The Impossible is poised to come out of nowhere. Good festival buzz, strong trailer, I think it pulls it off.

 

Just guessing, I think its a race between Lincoln, Les Mis, and possibly Silver Linings. Argo on the periphery. 

 

It will be fun to see how right I was in January.

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post #2 of 153
11/26/12 at 4:31pm

I'm tentatively going with these for Best Picture:

 

Argo

Lincoln

Zero Dark Thirty

Silver Linings Playbook

Life of Pi

Les Miz

The Master

Moonrise Kingdom

Amour

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post #3 of 153
11/26/12 at 5:52pm

Based on films I've seen this year, My preferences would be for best picture:

 

Life of Pi

The Master

Silver Linings Playbook

Argo

Cloud Atlas

Moonrise Kingdom

Lincoln

 

with maybe 1 or 2 or the following based on their reputation now sight unseen

 

Zero Dark Thirty

Django Unchained

Les Miserables

Anna Karenina

Beasts of the Southern Wild (still unseen by me)

 

Will probably end up being

 

Lincoln (likely to win) 

Argo

Beasts of the Southern Wild

Les Miserables

Silver Linings Playbook

Zero Dark Thirty

 

I would love to see The Master win but it's lack of success and some critical indifference will make it tough for it to be even nominated. Life of Pi I would love to see win as well but probably won't. 

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post #4 of 153
11/26/12 at 6:42pm

Meanwhile, I think we can all declare that Best Actor will go something like this:

 

1. Daniel Day Lewis

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2. Everybody else. Because why bother even nominating anyone else?

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post #5 of 153
11/26/12 at 6:55pm

Serious question: The Dark Knight Rises. Does it get a nomination because of all the brouhaha regarding The Dark Knight's snub (a far better movie and one worthy of at least the expanded list of nominees) and also as a way to draw in the whole younger crowd, so they can see a horse they love in this race as opposed to yet again more period dramas? Or does the hiring of Seth Macfarland as host remove the need to cater to the youngins by way of the nominations because Family Guy is, for better or worse, a wildly successful show amongst key marketing demographics?

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post #6 of 153
11/26/12 at 7:02pm
Thread Starter 
I think it might get nominated for a Golden Globe. If it's lucky.
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post #7 of 153
11/26/12 at 7:04pm

I feel like TDKR made such a little impression on the popular consciousness (partially engulfed by the tragedy that happened to surround it) that it's not a legitimate contender at all. 

 

But I'm often wrong.

 

But TDKR is also awful.

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post #8 of 153
11/26/12 at 7:08pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by Doc Happenin View Post

Serious question: The Dark Knight Rises. Does it get a nomination because of all the brouhaha regarding The Dark Knight's snub (a far better movie and one worthy of at least the expanded list of nominees) and also as a way to draw in the whole younger crowd, so they can see a horse they love in this race as opposed to yet again more period dramas? Or does the hiring of Seth Macfarland as host remove the need to cater to the youngins by way of the nominations because Family Guy is, for better or worse, a wildly successful show amongst key marketing demographics?

 

If its the 10 movie nominations, yes. For The Dark Knight's snub, but also because The Dark Knight Rises was a commercial smash, crowd-pleaser, critically acclaimed and the Nolan factor. Said it before and I'll say it again. Hasn't been a director who hit this big and still be snubbed by the Academy out of sheer jealousy since Spielberg during the 70s and 80s. They'll want something the public went to see there.

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post #9 of 153
11/26/12 at 7:11pm

Still feels like its Argo's to lose.

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post #10 of 153
11/26/12 at 7:39pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by FilmNerdJamie View Post

Still feels like its Argo's to lose.

 

Agreed.  When the dust clears, I think it's gonna take the big prize.

 

Why?  Because people seem to be very pro Affleck at the moment.  His career resuscitation is the feel-good story of the year.

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post #11 of 153
11/26/12 at 7:46pm

I keep forgetting TDK wasn't nominated.  I mix it in with the year that they did 10 nominees.

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post #12 of 153
11/26/12 at 7:59pm

I dunno. I have a sneaking feeling it'll be Les Mis, just because it has all the factors: period piece. Literary classic. Pretty costumes. Recognizable name. Broadway classic. Great fucking music (won't ever deny this). Pretty costumes. An epic cast. December release date.Pretty costumes. Award winning director who already gave them a perfectly serviceable Oscar winner two years ago. Did I mention the pretty costumes?

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post #13 of 153
11/26/12 at 8:02pm

Anne Hathaway will get Best Supporting Actress.

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post #14 of 153
11/26/12 at 8:02pm

DDL is a lock for Best Actor.

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post #15 of 153
11/26/12 at 8:05pm

Lincoln won't get Best Picture but it'll pick up Best Adapted Screenplay.

 

Skyfall will come in with a surprise nom for Best Cinematography. Either Life Of Pi or Les Miz will win that one.

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post #16 of 153
11/26/12 at 8:51pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by Art Decade View Post

Anne Hathaway will get Best Supporting Actress.

 

Yep.  If Jennifer Hudson can win for nailing one iconic song, then Hathaway has this in the bag.  

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post #17 of 153
11/26/12 at 11:10pm

Les Mis fucking PLAYS with the Academy. As long as it isn't a box office bomb, it's a lock for a nod, and might even be a frontrunner.

 

"Argo" has lost a lot of steam with the arrival of "Zero Dark Thirty." I think people are gonna have to face the fact that they gave the big prize to The Hurt Locker, and this one's even BETTER.

 

I think the end of the year was loaded, keeping Avengers and Dark Knight out of it. Out of the three, Skyfall has the best chance, and I don't see it.

 

Silver Linings Playbook is the Weinsteins. Bank on Pic, Director, Screenplay, Actress, and Supporting Actor nominations. I wouldn't count out Django Unchained for the big prize either, particularly if TWC decide not to rydeordye with "The Master," though that one should have Actor and Supporting Actor nods at least.

 

"Lincoln" is getting in there. We'll see what perception of the film is.

 

Argo and Life of Pi are likely. If there are any early-year surprises, I think Moonrise Kingdom is more likely than Beasts. And The Impossible is too weird and spooky for some voters, I wouldn't count on it.

 

BEST PICTURE

LES MIS

ARGO

ZERO DARK THIRTY

SILVER LININGS PLAYBOOK

DJANGO UNCHAINED

LINCOLN

LIFE OF PI

MOONRISE KINGDOM

 

BEST ACTOR- DDL

BEST ACTRESS- Chastain. Bet on it.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS- Hathaway wins it for "On My Own," with ease.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR- PSH, The Master himself. Hard to go with anyone else.

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post #18 of 153
11/27/12 at 5:04am
Quote:
Originally Posted by Gabe T View Post

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS- Hathaway wins it for "On My Own," with ease.

 

Hell, her 90 second version of 'I Dreamed A Dreamed' from the trailer really puts to shame every other version on youtube I've listened to. And I've listened to a ton because Anne's version is just that good.

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post #19 of 153
11/27/12 at 8:37am
Thread Starter 

That trailer was all that was required. She's positioned so perfectly to win an oscar this year that the actual performance seems like an afterthought. The real action is gonna be Jennifer Lawrence versus Jessica Chastain, I'm betting, with a dark horse Naomi Watts waiting in the wings.

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post #20 of 153
11/27/12 at 8:54am

Yeah, I'm getting a Kate Winslet/The Reader vibe from Watts. I think this is her year.

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post #21 of 153
11/27/12 at 10:21am

I see Lincoln and Les Mis running wild.  Would love to see Deakins get the nod for Skyfall.  Would love to see Cloud Atlas get some attention too, though I doubt it will.  

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post #22 of 153
11/27/12 at 10:34am

The only thing CLOUD ATLAS will get will be some Razzie noms.  Count on it.

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post #23 of 153
11/27/12 at 10:37am

Yeah, I believe it.  And that makes me sad.

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post #24 of 153
11/27/12 at 10:37am

Halle Berry is the "Meryl Streep" of the Razzies. I'll take that bet.

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post #25 of 153
11/27/12 at 2:58pm

Just got back from it and when Silver Linings Playbook busts open in wide release, I can see it being a contender. It's got charm, but not maudlin. Hope it plays well and sees some love. Another nod for Lawrence? I'd like that.

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post #26 of 153
11/27/12 at 5:25pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by fuzzy dunlop View Post

I see Lincoln and Les Mis running wild.  Would love to see Deakins get the nod for Skyfall.  Would love to see Cloud Atlas get some attention too, though I doubt it will.  

 

Maybe Editing?  

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post #27 of 153
11/30/12 at 1:38pm

I'm just curious how The Master will play out. For a film with such a high rottentomatoes percentage it dissapeared quick and it seems like a lot of critics just generally don't like it now. Will it actually appear on anybody Top Ten List? And if not will that mean its gets shut out completely by the Oscars?

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post #28 of 153
11/30/12 at 1:42pm

Quote:

Originally Posted by fuzzy dunlop View Post

I see Lincoln and Les Mis running wild.  Would love to see Deakins get the nod for Skyfall.  Would love to see Cloud Atlas get some attention too, though I doubt it will.  

 

Quote:
Originally Posted by Ratty View Post

Maybe Editing?  

 

Costume Design. But it'll lose out to Les Miz.

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post #29 of 153
11/30/12 at 1:52pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by Art Decade View Post

Quote:

 

 

Costume Design. But it'll lose out to Les Miz.

 

Or LINCOLN or ANNA KARENINA.  

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post #30 of 153
11/30/12 at 3:17pm

Cloud absolutely deserves best Makeup. Watching the little montage at the end had me floored, so many faces went unrecognized. Brilliant stuff.

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post #31 of 153
11/30/12 at 3:26pm

I'd throw Lincoln in that race, as well. Seeing DDL on the big screen you could see every hair on that guy's head shaped to authentic perfection. The realization of that real-life character is one helluva cinematic feat & it's whomever is responsible for it - in every capacity - that deserves a nod.

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post #32 of 153
11/30/12 at 3:33pm

Probably won't, but I'd love if Killer Joe got a nod for something just to remind people it exists. Haven't caught some of the pictures in the running for the big prize yet, but next to Dredd (which I love, but as a superb genre exercise), Joe is easily my favorite film of the year.

 

I'm also interested to see how the documentaries shake out, since you've got three very strong contenders in Bully (popular), Jiro Dreams of Sushi (critical darling) and Searching for Sugar Man(Feel good).

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post #33 of 153
11/30/12 at 3:34pm

Something different:  The RAZZIES.

 

What's going to get nominated for Worst film of the year?  Worst Actor?  Worst Actress?

 

I'm guessing that worst films might be:

CLOUD ATLAS

THAT'S MY BOY

A THOUSAND WORDS

JOHN CARTER

BATTLESHIP

 

For the record, I'm in no way insinuating that all of those films are indeed the worst films of the year, but I can see them being nominated.

 

Worst Actress:

Kristen Stewart (SNOW WHITE AND THE HUNTSMAN)

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post #34 of 153
11/30/12 at 3:38pm

Why do I have the creeping feeling that The Hobbit is gonna be a critical disaster?

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post #35 of 153
11/30/12 at 3:56pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by Splatoon View Post

Probably won't, but I'd love if Killer Joe got a nod for something just to remind people it exists. Haven't caught some of the pictures in the running for the big prize yet, but next to Dredd (which I love, but as a superb genre exercise), Joe is easily my favorite film of the year.

 

I'm also interested to see how the documentaries shake out, since you've got three very strong contenders in Bully (popular), Jiro Dreams of Sushi (critical darling) and Searching for Sugar Man(Feel good).

Nice to see somebody say this. Killer Joe is one of the best films of the year.

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post #36 of 153
11/30/12 at 3:56pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by Judas Booth View Post

Something different:  The RAZZIES.

 

 

 

All Twilight, all the time

 

Tyler Perry as Alex Cross

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post #37 of 153
11/30/12 at 4:07pm
People have seen the Hobbit now - I'm pretty sure if it was really bad we'd be able to taste blood in the water by now. I don't think this trilogy will be anything close to the oscars magnet that was LOTR though, however it turns out.

Re: Cloud Atlas razzies, the movie didn't do well and seemed to get a "huh?" reaction, but it was never positioned as a blockbuster and I'm pretty sure the popular conception, if there even is one, is more that its an oddity rather than a punch line like John Carter.

The Master should get an acting nod or three, but I doubt anything else. It's not a movie anyone seems terribly enthused over.

I reckon Moonrise Kingdom may surprise. Best original screenplay nod almost certainly, and an outside chance at a best pic nom. The academy seemed receptive to Wes before he turned to crap, now he's good again I think they'll be back on board, especially given that the movie did okay.
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post #38 of 153
11/30/12 at 6:44pm
Thread Starter 

I agree that Killer Joe is one of the year's best movies, and that it will get zero nominations for anything ever. Maybe some oddball critics group will throw McConaughey a bone.

 

I also agree that Cloud Atlas will be ignored by the Razzies. No one hated it, it wasn't a punchline, it just didn't find an audience. At worst, Halle Berry gets a Razzie nomination, because the Razzies suck and are terrible.

 

Moonrise may well sneak in over Beasts. I think more people will respond to it, and no one will dislike it.

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post #39 of 153
11/30/12 at 6:57pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by Gabe T View Post

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR- PSH, The Master himself. Hard to go with anyone else.

 

 

"You fatuous nincompoop!"

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post #40 of 153
12/1/12 at 7:50am
In a perfect world Moonrise Kingdom would be nominated for best picture, director and best supporting actor for Bruce Willis. But this most likely wont happen and at best it will best original screenplay which it totally deserves to win.

Other than that I hope for nominations for Beasts of the Southern Wild, The Master and Life of Pi, since those are some of best I've seen so far. Though hoping for Les Miserables, Lincoln and Zero Dark Thirty to do well as well, which all look excellent but haven't seen yet.
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post #41 of 153
12/2/12 at 6:24am
Thread Starter 

I'd like Willis to get nominated for that. It's his best performance in years, maybe decades. But I'm guessing Supporting Actor, always one of the most interesting categories, looks like this:

 

3 Locks:

Philip Seymour Hoffman - The Master

Tommy lee Jones - Lincoln 

Robert DeNiro -  Silver Linings

 

To win, it's between Hoffman and Jones, with a slight edge to Jones for being in a movie with a bit more momentum and mass appeal. I suppose DeNiro could ride a Silver Linings sweep (or a redemption narrative).

 

In the running:

 

Christoph Waltz or Leonardo DiCaprio - Probably DiCaprio, in that it looks like the funnier role

Matthew McConaughey - Magic Mike

Alan Arkin - Argo

James Spader - Lincoln

 

and maybe Dwight Henry from Beasts sneaks in. I've heard Jason Clarke is great in Zero Dark Thirty too. But I'd bet on DiCaprio and McConaughey

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post #42 of 153
12/2/12 at 7:32am

Waltz and Jackson are said to be the real scene-stealers. I'd bank more on them than DiCaprio (have a feeling The Wolf on Wall Street gets him the gold next year)

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post #43 of 153
12/2/12 at 9:28am

Best Actor:

DDL - Lincoln

Joaquin Phoenix - The Master

John Hawkes - The Sessions

Hugh Jackman - Les Mis

Denzel Washington - Flight

 

Best Actress:

Jennifer Lawrence - Silver Linings

Jessica Chastain - Zero Dark Thirty

Marion Cotillard - Rust & Bone (Whale Mutilation is the new Mental Illness)

Naomi Watts - The Impossible

Emmanuelle Riva - Amour

 

Best Supporting Actor:

Tommy Lee Jones - Lincoln

Robert De Niro - Silver Linings

PSH - The Master

Alan Arkin - Argo

Leo Dicaprio - Django

 

Best Supporting Actress:

Anne Hathaway - Les Mis

Helen Hunt - The Sessions

Amy Adams - The Master

Sally Field - Lincoln

Samantha Barks - Les Mis

 

Best Pic:

Les Mis

Argo

Amour

Lincoln

Zero Dark

Beasts

 

 

Note #1:  I think Les Mis will be the most nominated movie.  I think Eddie Redmayne and Russell Crowe are strong supporting actor candidates in a very crowded category.

 

Note #2:  I think if Silver Linings Playbook builds momentum at the box office then you could see Bradley Cooper get nominated (in the Denzel spot) along with Jackie Weaver (in the Samantha Barks or Amy Adams spot) as well as noms for Best Picture and Director. 

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post #44 of 153
12/2/12 at 10:41am
Is there any chance that Holy Motors will get nominated for Best Foreign Picture? Just saw it last night and is absolutely in my top 5 films of the year list, just great. Denis Levant honestly deserves to win best Actor for his 9 different and all very powerful performances but we all know that won't happen.

My guess is the winner will go to Amour, which is probably good but not to interested in, though Haneake is generally awesome.
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post #45 of 153
12/2/12 at 2:34pm
Thread Starter 
I'd bet on Bradley Cooper at this point.
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post #46 of 153
12/2/12 at 4:19pm

I think Tim Burton may well get Best Animated Feature for Frankenweenie. The field is fairly weak compared to previous years. Brave is a weak Pixar offering. Wreck It Ralph and Rise of the Guardians aren't really 'Academy' material, while Frankenweenie's very flimic. And Burton's someone they might want as an Academy Award winner and for a de facto career contribution award.

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post #47 of 153
12/2/12 at 4:34pm

I had hoped The Pirates! would capture some of that Chicken Run magic, but unfortunately it never quite got past solid. Still had one of my favorite jokes of the year though:

 

Pirate Captain: Hello! We’re here for the science show! We’re scientists.

Scientist: Hmph?

Pirate Captain: That’s a pipette, this is Charles Darwin, and I am a Scientist Captain.

Scientist: If you’re really scientists, name three elements.

Pirate Captain: Oh well let’s see now, there’s gold, ham, and uh, the tears of a mermaid.

Scientist: Two out of three, close enough.

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post #48 of 153
12/7/12 at 3:43pm

I'd like to see Argo getting nominations for Best Picture, Best Supporting Actor (Alan Arkin) and winning Best Adapted Screenplay

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post #49 of 153
12/7/12 at 6:43pm

A fresh remind of some of the year's best by David Ehrlich. A must.

http://www.movies.com/movie-news/top-25-films-year-video-countdown/10556

 

Wish I could get this to embed.

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post #50 of 153
12/8/12 at 4:01am
Thread Starter 

So, pretty much everything has been seen by somebody at this point, so I think there's a few things assumptions you can make.

 

Hobbit looks out, almost for sure. Ditto poor Killing Them Softly, which never had more than a fool's hope anyway.

 

Zero Dark Thirty is coming up strong, and probably in serious contention for all the majors. Les Mis appears to be peddling the kind of populist year end bullshit that the academy goes for, and quite well. Both movies may suffer by coming from directors who just won. Will the academy be cool with giving Bigelow another win for another modern war film just a couple years after Hurt Locker? Do they want to make Tom Hooper a two time oscar winner in three years?

 

I think The Impossible and Silver Linings are slipping down a notch or two. Silver Linings being the Weinstein's horse probably makes it competitive in a few major categories. Maybe some of their weight gets shifted to Django, which looks like a nominee at this point, if not a serious contender. All three of these are likely going to pick up some acting nods, I expect.

 

Life of Pi seems to be struggling to find its base. Could be injured by being respected, but not necessarily anyone's favorite. Argo, on the other hand, feels more like the movie everyone can at least agree on being pretty damn good, and I think it's quite viable for the win. Unless of course Zero Dark Thirty ends up with all its thunder.

 

Lincoln looks solidly in contention, and before I've taken in Les Mis and Zero, it feels like the current best bet to win. Gonna be an interesting awards season, and I bet the critics awards, SAGs, Globes, and various Guilds end up splitting the difference a bit more than usual.

 

I see Amour getting talked up as a possibility, but I can also imagine the screener ending up on the bottom of everyone's list. It's a crowded field, and there is a Foreign Language category, after all. I'm also feeling Moonrise Kingdom is rising and Beasts of the Southern Wild is deflating, a touch. But the little girl will look cute next to Chastain and Lawrence.

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