So, pretty much everything has been seen by somebody at this point, so I think there's a few things assumptions you can make.
Hobbit looks out, almost for sure. Ditto poor Killing Them Softly, which never had more than a fool's hope anyway.
Zero Dark Thirty is coming up strong, and probably in serious contention for all the majors. Les Mis appears to be peddling the kind of populist year end bullshit that the academy goes for, and quite well. Both movies may suffer by coming from directors who just won. Will the academy be cool with giving Bigelow another win for another modern war film just a couple years after Hurt Locker? Do they want to make Tom Hooper a two time oscar winner in three years?
I think The Impossible and Silver Linings are slipping down a notch or two. Silver Linings being the Weinstein's horse probably makes it competitive in a few major categories. Maybe some of their weight gets shifted to Django, which looks like a nominee at this point, if not a serious contender. All three of these are likely going to pick up some acting nods, I expect.
Life of Pi seems to be struggling to find its base. Could be injured by being respected, but not necessarily anyone's favorite. Argo, on the other hand, feels more like the movie everyone can at least agree on being pretty damn good, and I think it's quite viable for the win. Unless of course Zero Dark Thirty ends up with all its thunder.
Lincoln looks solidly in contention, and before I've taken in Les Mis and Zero, it feels like the current best bet to win. Gonna be an interesting awards season, and I bet the critics awards, SAGs, Globes, and various Guilds end up splitting the difference a bit more than usual.
I see Amour getting talked up as a possibility, but I can also imagine the screener ending up on the bottom of everyone's list. It's a crowded field, and there is a Foreign Language category, after all. I'm also feeling Moonrise Kingdom is rising and Beasts of the Southern Wild is deflating, a touch. But the little girl will look cute next to Chastain and Lawrence.