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2016 Oscar Race

post #1 of 456
Thread Starter 

And we're off with the first group - the National Board of Review:

 

Best Film: Manchester by the Sea
Best Director: Barry Jenkins, Moonlight
Best Actor: Casey Affleck, Manchester by the Sea
Best Actress: Amy Adams, Arrival
Best Supporting Actor: Jeff Bridges, Hell or High Water
Best Supporting Actress: Naomie Harris, Moonlight
Best Original Screenplay: Kenneth Lonergan, Manchester by the Sea
Best Adapted Screenplay: Jay Cocks and Martin Scorsese, Silence
Best Animated Feature: Kubo and the Two Strings

 

More here, including their full top 10:  http://variety.com/2016/film/awards/manchester-by-the-sea-national-board-of-review-1201928950/

 

The NBR's relevance... varies, but they were the ones who really launched Fury Road as a serious contender last year.  The person who probably gets the biggest boost out of this is Amy Adams, since Arrival is the kind of film that the awards bodies can hold at arms' length due to genre (though between Gravity and The Martian, adult sci-fi is increasingly becoming acceptable). Haven't seen Manchester by the Sea (or, obviously, Silence) yet, but otherwise those are some good choices. Lonergan will probably win his Oscar in Screenplay for Manchester, though I'd still expect La La Land to win the big two prizes.

post #2 of 456

Kind of surprised to see Hacksaw Ridge and Sully on the list.  Didn't think those two were THAT well received.

 

Beyond thrilled to see Kubo take the animation award.  I have a feeling the Pixar blinders will be on come Oscar night and Finding Dory will win, but it's also possible three strong Disney entries will split the field and let Kubo take it.

post #3 of 456

National Board of Review often seems to have some rather middling choices on their list.  And they love them some Clint.

post #4 of 456
Quote:
Originally Posted by Richard Dickson View Post
 

Kind of surprised to see Hacksaw Ridge and Sully on the list.  Didn't think those two were THAT well received.

 

Beyond thrilled to see Kubo take the animation award.  I have a feeling the Pixar blinders will be on come Oscar night and Finding Dory will win, but it's also possible three strong Disney entries will split the field and let Kubo take it.

 

Hey, there's always SAUSAGE PARTY!

post #5 of 456

Was Finding Dory really that much of a critical darling? It's a sequel and whilst it got reasonably good reviews, they were not universal. It made bank, but that's not necessarily an indicator.

 

I mean, the only real time they lost out on a nominated movie was Cars (I reckon the travesty in 2001 was people confused by the new voting form, so it doesn't count :D ), and Finding Dory isn't that bad... but Kubo is really good and has a 'art' air about it that might push it over the edge.

 

Plus, Laika really need a break, this'll be their fifth nomination, they're already winning the most noms no wins thing.


Edited by flint - 11/30/16 at 3:54am
post #6 of 456
I imagine it'll really be about how strong the campaigns are as opposed to the reviews (which leaned heavily positive if not overwhelmingly so).

I'd like Kubo to win for sure.
post #7 of 456
Laika's due, and Dory is a bit of a weak sister for Pixar (it's no Toy Story sequel). But I don't think Moana is out of the running either. Or even Zootopia. That's one of the most competitive categories this year.

Hacksaw Ridge is a good, old fashioned war film. If people are ready to forgive Gibson a bit, it'll get a few nods.

I do think this is a weaker year than usual. The Amy Adams/Natalie Portman showdown will be interesting. I bet Moonlight and Fences will be the beneficiaries of last year's systemic racism, offering terrific alternatives to The Birth of a Nation. Manchester has lots of nominations, one win for screenplay written all over it.
post #8 of 456
Quote:
Originally Posted by Arjen Rudd View Post


I do think this is a weaker year than usual. The Amy Adams/Natalie Portman showdown will be interesting. I bet Moonlight and Fences will be the beneficiaries of last year's systemic racism, offering terrific alternatives to The Birth of a Nation. Manchester has lots of nominations, one win for screenplay written all over it.

It will be interesting to see if Amy Adams can really enter the race; the early buzz has been around Emma Stone for La La Land. I do think it is entirely possible that she and Natalie Portman could aplit the "young" vote and Adams or Annette Benning could win.

Viola Davis seems like a lock for Supporting Actress.

Actor is a bit tough, because there just aren't a ton of standout male performances this year. Casey Affleck seems like the favorite, but I have a feeling that the domestic abuse stuff in his past will come back in a big way if he gets a lot of heat. Makes me wonder if Denzel or even Hanks could sneak in there.

Supporting actor is another tough category. I feel that Mahershala Ali is probably the current favorite, but that could change if Silence is good and the Academy decides to give Liam Neeson his career Oscar.

Best Picture/Director seems, at this juncture, heavily tilted towards La La Land. Considering every major Oscar movie save Silence seems to have been seen by most critics, I don't really see that changing. Maybe if Fences really ignites as the box office or something, that might just change the conversation a bit.

Loving feels like the movie this year that will get several nominations without any wins.
post #9 of 456
Thread Starter 

Critics' Choice noms just hit - dominated by La La Land, Arrival, and Moonlight. Looks like they didn't have time to see Silence.

 

http://variety.com/2016/film/in-contention/2016-critics-choice-movie-awards-nominations-1201930813/

 

Hacksaw Ridge shows up again in Picture and Director, while Jackie does not. Makes me think the Actress showdown is going to be between Stone and Adams, instead of Stone and Portman. Pretty jazzed that Michael Shannon and Ben Foster both showed up in Supporting Actor.

 

And NYFCC is being announced right now - first winner was Mahershala Ali in Best Supporting Actor for Moonlight.

post #10 of 456
Thread Starter 

And La La Land takes picture (and nothing else) at NYFCC, while Barry Jenkins wins Director for Moonlight (which also wins Supporting Actor for Ali, as mentioned above), Affleck wins Actor for Manchester By The Sea (which also took Screenplay and Supporting Actress for Michelle Williams), and Isabelle Huppert wins Actress for Elle (and also The Things To Come, but really just Elle).

 

Big wins for LLL and Huppert in particular, while Moonlight/Manchester secure their spots as the critical darlings of the year.

post #11 of 456
And they went Zootopia for animated film.
post #12 of 456
Thread Starter 

Moonlight won LAFCA (Pic, Director, Supporting Actor, Cinematography). I'd say La La Land, Manchester, and Moonlight are looking very solid in the BP category, with Mahershala Ali in great position for Supporting Actor. Also, looks like Isabelle Huppert's getting into strongposition for a career nomination for Paul Verhoeven's Elle - if the Academy bluehairs watch it.

 

The interesting wins were in Actor (Adam Driver for Paterson), Supporting Actress (Lily Gladstone for Certain Women), and Screenplay (The Lobster). That'd be something if The Lobster manages to pull off a nomination.

post #13 of 456
Thread Starter 

In terms of "surprise contenders," I'm not entirely surprised by Jackie seeming to fall off the map aside potentially from Portman, but did not expect Hacksaw Ridge to be doing nearly as well as it has, having now hit NBR/AFI/Critics Choice. I guess this year has signaled Hollywood it's OK to welcome Mel back.

post #14 of 456

The Golden Globe nominations don't offer many surprises, other than the split drama and comedy categories allowing their usual eclectic mix:  Deadpool gets nominations for Best Picture - Comedy and Best Actor - Comedy.

post #15 of 456
Thread Starter 

I dunno about no surprises - Best Supporting Actor was pretty damn weird. Did anyone actually see Florence Foster Jenkins? If so, can they explain how the heck Simon Helberg got nominated?

post #16 of 456
Thread Starter 

Every year, there's one blockbuster that tends to pull in a number of guild notices. Usually, this makes sense.

 

This year, on the other hand, the industry has apparently decided to get behind Deadpool, with Globe, WGA, and PGA nods. Do they really love Ryan Reynolds that much?

post #17 of 456
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dent6084 View Post
 

Every year, there's one blockbuster that tends to pull in a number of guild notices. Usually, this makes sense.

 

This year, on the other hand, the industry has apparently decided to get behind Deadpool, with Globe, WGA, and PGA nods. Do they really love Ryan Reynolds that much?


I think its a case of they love the box office returns that Deadpool provided. 

post #18 of 456
Is anyone going to bother watching the ceremony?

This is the first year I'm considering skipping them. Kimmel is unbearable.
post #19 of 456
I haven't watched since '02. It's truly a waste of time.
post #20 of 456

Yeah, I have no idea when the last time I watched the Oscars was.  No point in breaking tradition this year.  Besides, the In Memorium bit will be to depressing, and also half the length of the broadcast.

post #21 of 456

I stay up and watch it every year with the missus, booze and everything, often chatting with you guys. Honestly, it's been a while since I can really explain why and it's certainly not something I advertise too heavily with the normals - it's just impossible to justify. But, traditions and all that, I guess I'll just do it all again this year.

 

I hate Musicals, so really not looking forward to La La Land, which I'm guessing it going to be featured heavily, this year will probably be exceptionally irritating. I don't know much about Kimmel, beyond the Celebrities Read Mean Tweets thing.

post #22 of 456
"La La Land" strikes me as the kind of Oscar bait that the Academy fawns all over but is promptly forgotten about a year or two later.

See "The Artist."
post #23 of 456

We usually watch the Oscars, but sometimes we just record it and buzz through it later on to catch the highlights.  Not sure what we'll do this year.

post #24 of 456
Quote:
Originally Posted by Bradito View Post

"La La Land" strikes me as the kind of Oscar bait that the Academy fawns all over but is promptly forgotten about a year or two later.

See "The Artist."

 

LA LA LAND will have more of a shelf life than THE ARTIST.  It's a much more accessible film and stars some of the hottest actors working today, resulting in a much more watchable film.

post #25 of 456
What's "La La Land?"




See, I've already forgotten about it.
post #26 of 456
Thread Starter 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Judas Booth View Post
 

 

LA LA LAND will have more of a shelf life than THE ARTIST.  It's a much more accessible film and stars some of the hottest actors working today, resulting in a much more watchable film.


It's also more cinematically interesting in terms of style and technique, and Chazelle is far more likely to be a big name in years to come than Hazavanicus.

post #27 of 456
Well, I guess I'll go fuck myself.
post #28 of 456
The Artist is actually quite good.
post #29 of 456
(I liked "The Artist," too.)
post #30 of 456
I've still yet to see Deadpool, but it managed to be the second highest-grossing "R" rated movie in history, topped only by The Passion of the Christ, despite being banned in China. The word of mouth on this movie must have been at least decently positive.
post #31 of 456
I think I'm just bitter that Reynolds lost the Golden Globe to Gosling. But Comedies and Musicals shouldn't be in the same category anyway.
post #32 of 456
Quote:
Originally Posted by Bradito View Post

"La La Land" strikes me as the kind of Oscar bait that the Academy fawns all over but is promptly forgotten about a decade later.
Fixed.

It's also probably unfair to refer to it as Oscar bait, but I'll let that slide.
post #33 of 456
If David O. Russell didn't direct it, is it acceptable to call it "Oscar bait?"
post #34 of 456
I think it's only fair if they just announce the winners this morning with LA LA LAND winning every category, including animation, doc, foreign, and shorts. Get it over with.
post #35 of 456

Shock appearence from Viggo! Maybe that Eastern Promises sequel will happen now.

post #36 of 456
Yay, Huppert got a nom!

Nice to see HELL OR HIGH WATER get some recognition too.
post #37 of 456

At the moment Tom Hanks is listed as a best actor nominee on the official oscar website:

 

http://oscar.go.com/news/nominations/oscar-nominations-2017-view-the-complete-list-of-nominees

 

Whoops!

 

Edit: they caught it. They still haven't fixed the formatting that puts Emma Stone separately above all the other best actress nominees though.

post #38 of 456
Hmm, that's a weird mistake to make. There must be tons of fake lists when they're doing these things.
post #39 of 456
Anyway, they look like Oscar nominations.
post #40 of 456

I think they picked the wrong song from Moana.

post #41 of 456

Any year National Treasure Michael Shannon gets nominated is a good year.

post #42 of 456
Thread Starter 

Boo on no Amy Adams for Arrival.

 

Yay on Michael Shannon and Octavia Spencer.

post #43 of 456
Quote:
Originally Posted by Paul C View Post
 

Shock appearence from Viggo! Maybe that Eastern Promises sequel will happen now.

 

(It already is happening!)

post #44 of 456
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dent6084 View Post
 

Boo on no Amy Adams for Arrival.

 

Yeah. She definitely deserved it.

post #45 of 456
Quote:
Originally Posted by MrSaxon View Post

 

(It already is happening!)

 

Nice! Though if it's really happening in March it's a bit weird no one seems to know who's directing it. They must have Cronenberg surely!

post #46 of 456

No song nomination for Sing Street is some outright bullshit.

 

EDIT: Especially considering that outright dirge of a Sting song that got nominated instead.

post #47 of 456

Fake lists circulating out there with Ryan Reynolds nominated for best actor in Deadpool. I chuckled.

 

 

Quote:
Originally Posted by jhp1608 View Post
 

I think they picked the wrong song from Moana.

 

Agreed. We Know The Way is absolutely the best song on that soundtrack.

post #48 of 456

Fourteen nominations for La La, including two in Original Song, is infuriating more than I thought it might. 

post #49 of 456

Mr Stockslivevan is obviously one of the voting members.

post #50 of 456

So, is Mel Gibson officially released from Hollywood jail?

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