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2017 Oscar race

post #1 of 331
Thread Starter 
I don't really care who wins but Spielberg, Nolan, Scott and, amazingly, Eastwood are all in the race so it should be interesting. Actually it's more like a sprint. Spielberg only started in February and Eastwood started at the end of June and apprently has already wrapped. Crazy.

And then you have long shots like WIND RIVER.

http://variety.com/2017/film/in-contention/oscars-clint-eastwood-steven-spielberg-ridley-scott-1202532168/
post #2 of 331
I'd be nice for Scott to bounce back from Covenant with an acclaimed piece of work.
post #3 of 331
Thread Starter 
Well THE MARTIAN was acclaimed, although personally I just thought it was a decent sci-fi docu/drama. Nothing about a kidnapping drama screams Oscar but we'll see.
post #4 of 331

Early, probably-wrong prediction: Spielberg's The Papers wins Best Picture, and Nolan wins Best Director for Dunkirk. For some reason another highly-buzzed title in the race is The Shape of Water, but... I'd definitely say "let's wait for reviews" on that one.

 

One film I'm very interested to see how it plays into the race is Get Out. It definitely has the reviews and box office, and Universal will almost certainly mount a campaign (TBH, they don't really seem to have anything else). It'll definitely get a Screenplay nod, but breaking into the races beyond that will require a bit of luck.

post #5 of 331
My prediction is that Hugh Jackman's The Greatest Showman wins every major award and everyone wonders what the hell just happened.
post #6 of 331

The Greatest Showman is going to flop, and flop big. 

 

Michael Stulhbarg is your best supporting actor winner. He's due - he's Michael fucking Stulhbarg - and has been the Simmons-in-Whiplash style frontrunner since CALL ME BY YOUR NAME screened at Sundance. 

 

Depending on how it shakes out, I can also see LAST FLAG FLYING - Linklater's Last Detail sequel - cleaning up as well. I could see this being Cranston's year for Best Actor, possibly Carell. It's getting a big splashy slot at NYFF, which could help it.

 

Also at NYFF - Allen's WONDER WHEEL. 

 

At this point, yeah, I'd say Nolan is the Best Director frontrunner, and nobody has a big, showy picture in the pipeline to beat him. Yet. 

 

My prediction is GET OUT picks up surprise noms for Director, Picture, and Screenplay. 
 

If Ridley Scott delivers a solid picture, this could pick up some noms: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/All_the_Money_in_the_World

 

Oh, hell, just go here: http://www.goldderby.com/article/2017/2018-oscar-predictions/

post #7 of 331

Stuhlbarg's getting the nom for sure, but right now I'd say Willem Dafoe's the winner in Supporting Actor. Florida Project's going to be A24's big push, it sounds like he has a really showy (and incredibly sympathetic) role, he's definitely due and coming off of multiple noms (whereas this would be Stuhlbarg's first). Still, a Stuhlbarg vs. Dafoe showdown would probably be the coolest acting Oscar race of the year, though I hope someone from Death of Stalin makes it (c'mon, Best Supporting Actor nominee Michael Palin!).

 

Speaking of Last Flag Flying/Supporting Actor, I actually think Fishburne may make a splash, but we'll see. I think LFF will do well, though.

 

And it won't happen because Dunkirk will probably take all the tech buzz, but it would be fucking awesome if Deakins finally won for Blade Runner 2049.

post #8 of 331
Hearing that DOWNSIZING might be one to watch for.
post #9 of 331
Quote:
Originally Posted by Boone Daniels View Post
 

The Greatest Showman is going to flop, and flop big. 

 

 

Just watched the trailer, didn't know anything about it beforehand except the subject matter, that it was a musical and starred Jackman. Holy balls. Though that was also my reaction to the trailers of CHICAGO and LES MISERABLES.

post #10 of 331

Nah, we had the 'weird kooky musical/love letter to showbiz' year last time. Dunkirk, both awards. We haven't had a 'all very thespy British drama' year since 2010, we're overdue.

post #11 of 331

Depending on how good The Papers is, they might decide to give Spielberg his late career thank you, figuring Nolan's only 47 and likely has plenty of other chances.  Then again, it feels like it's been a while since the Academy felt that way, especially considering they gave Inarritu Best Director two years in a row.

 

Plus I'd just like to see Spielberg get into the three-timers club along with Capra and Wyler.

post #12 of 331

There's also already rumblings that this could be Bening's year for playing Gloria Grahame. 

 

But then, there are always rumblings that this is Bening's year, and it comes to nothing. 

 

I'm curious to see how things shake out with regards to the diversity of the nominees - this is the second year with the new, expanded class of Academy members, and last year you could argue that that class is what pushed Moonlight over the edge (it was also the best picture that year).

post #13 of 331
Quote:
Originally Posted by Boone Daniels View Post
 

I'm curious to see how things shake out with regards to the diversity of the nominees - this is the second year with the new, expanded class of Academy members, and last year you could argue that that class is what pushed Moonlight over the edge (it was also the best picture that year).

 

How does that shake out in the awards do you think? Get Out is what I'd most like to see, but the Academy hates genre. Detroit is the only other one I can think of, but I've yet to see it. Am I missing anything obvious?

post #14 of 331
Quote:
Originally Posted by flint View Post

How does that shake out in the awards do you think? Get Out is what I'd most like to see, but the Academy hates genre. Detroit is the only other one I can think of, but I've yet to see it. Am I missing anything obvious?

I actually think Get Out will be a player in the race. But the other contenders, besides Get Out and Detroit, would probably be The Big Sick and Mudbound - though Mudbound will have to get past the Academy's distaste for Netflix.
post #15 of 331

I was thinking Mudbound, but I also think that stuff like THE BIG SICK or even WONDER WOMAN could benefit from this. For a lot of that new class, which is also very young (compared to Academy members), there's not the snobbery towards superhero movies or streaming platforms. Good content is good content. 

post #16 of 331

The Papers strikes me in the same vein as Charlie Wilson's War, Dreamgirls, Selma, etc. Too pre-ordained for its own good and I say this as someone who considers Spielberg as their favorite filmmaker (and yes I am dying to see The Papers). 

 

The animosity towards Nolan by the Academy hasn't been felt since, ironically Spielberg in the 70's/80's. This feels like his moment especially since Dunkirk has been such a success financially combined with what could be a weak slate against it. Like The Departed, Argo and Gravity - all WB films incidentally, this came out the gate early on and can take a back-seat while all the other later releases massacre each other in the campaign wars. Dunkirk might not be a Best Picture winner but I would be stunned if Nolan's name isn't called for Best Director next February. 

 

And I'm going to echo the sentiment for Willem Dafoe in The Florida Project. The moment I saw the trailer (besides how awesome it looks), I immediately thought this would be Dafoe's Oscar.

post #17 of 331

I mean, if you look at the Director winners from 2011 to 2016 (THE ARTIST/LIFE OF PI/GRAVITY/BIRDMAN/REVENANT/LA LA), it definitely seems like we're in a period where the Oscars award what people call "Most Directing." You also see this from time to time in the Acting winners, where they award the one who's doing the "Most" acting (see: Redmayne over Keaton). And I'm looking at that list and I'm trying to see what could possibly be more directed than DUNKIRK. PHANTOM THREAD, maybe? 

 

Also, given that he's "retired", could Daniel Day Lewis win his fourth Best Actor oscar for PHANTOM THREAD?

 

PHANTOM THREAD is going to clean up in the technicals, though. Period fashion. 

post #18 of 331

Again, keep an eye on DOWNSIZED.  I think that's going to be the stealth film that's going to clean house and then be forgotten in two years.

post #19 of 331

Downsizing is a film where the premise is so odd that, cast and crew notwithstanding, I'm waiting to see what the reception is before predicting it (same w/ Shape of Water).

 

Actor - I think if Darkest Hour is well-received, this is Gary Oldman's year. If not, I could see it going to Cranston, DDL, or Damon for Downsizing (if Judas is right and it hits big - he'll also potentially have Suburbicon to help him).

post #20 of 331

Yeah, I trust Payne but I don't know about Downsizing at all. 

post #21 of 331

I'd love to see Tom Hardy get a Best Supporting Actor nod for DUNKIRK.  The amount of information that he communicates with his eyes is astounding.

post #22 of 331
That would be nice
post #23 of 331

He'd be my pick, but if anyone gets an acting nom from Dunkirk (doubtful), it'll probably be Rylance.

 

The thing that would make me laugh the hardest of all possible nominations is Andy Serkis finally getting a nom... for directing Breathe, this year's entry in the "disabled person overcomes disability in an inspiring way!" tony Oscar play. It won't happen, but it would be hilarious.

post #24 of 331

Something I was thinking about:

 

The Oscar success of THE PAPERS  might also depend on the success of Ken Burns' VIETNAM WAR documentary series, which in part tells the story of the Pentagon Papers.

post #25 of 331
Thread Starter 
Good write up on the players. I didn't know Dan Gilroy's movie, ROMAN ISRAEL, ESQ is out this year. At a glance it looks like Denzel Oscar bait but NIGHTCRAWLER certainly wasn't so maybe this is interesting:

http://www.tracking-board.com/the-oscar-map-1-will-netflix-land-its-first-best-picture-nod-with-mudbound-the-most-diverse-film-in-the-awards-race/
post #26 of 331

I haven't seen his movie but I'd love for Armie Hammer to get nominated. I've liked Hammer since The Lone Ranger and his work in The Man From U.N.C.L.E underlined to me that he's a really good character actor who was mistakenly put in leading man roles due to his looks. I've been waiting for his time to come and it's increasingly sounding as though Call Me By Your Name might be what does it.

 

On the subject of actors who could be so much more, I'm hearing surprisingly good things about Robert Pattinson's performance in Good Time. I'm wondering whether he might end up being one of the contenders. 

post #27 of 331

I think Good Time would need to thread the needle of being a breakout hit that plays long and has great word of mouth in order to snag that "indie nom" slot, and honestly, I think anything that would have gone to Good Time is already going to go to GET OUT. 

post #28 of 331
Quote:
Originally Posted by MrSaxon View Post
 

On the subject of actors who could be so much more, I'm hearing surprisingly good things about Robert Pattinson's performance in Good Time. I'm wondering whether he might end up being one of the contenders. 


Pattinson's been doing interesting work for a few years now. He's superb in THE ROVER.

post #29 of 331

Hammer in CMBYN seems like he may get stuck between Chalamet (who will definitely be the film's lead campaign/nom) and Stuhlbarg (comin' for that career nom, has apparently an absolute doozy of a clip). Double Supporting Actor nom hasn't happened in ages, double Lead nom in even longer.

 

Pattinson I could see happening if the critics go for him, but there are so many huge names in contention this year (DDL, Oldman, Cranston, Washington, Hanks) and you've already got Chalamet as a serious contender for the "newbie" slot/critics awards. Best Actor's gonna be a tough category this year.

post #30 of 331
I'm thinking Rooney Mara may be getting a Best Actress nomination for UNA. Seems like a relatively safe bet.

And maybe supporting for Mendelson!!!
post #31 of 331

Huh, I didn't know UNA was the Blackbird adaptation. Surprised Daniels didn't do the movie. 

 

That's one bound to generate the thinkpieces. 

post #32 of 331

For some reason I've been thinking about THE GREATEST SHOWMAN recently. The project it reminds me the most of is Jackman's other musical biopic, THE BOY FROM OZ, for which he won a Tony. That musical was widely regarded as being "fine," but held together by a fully committed Jackman utilizing all of his charisma modifiers. If GREATEST SHOWMAN hits those same "fine" to "pretty good notes," I have a suspicion Jackman could work his way to at least an Oscar nomination. 

 

post #33 of 331

Festivals kick off tomorrow (Venice, w/ the premiere of Downsizing), so in advance of that, shot-in-the-dark BP predictions:

 

Call Me By Your Name

Darkest Hour

Dunkirk

Florida Project

Get Out

Last Flag Flying

The Post

Phantom Thread (aka Untitled PTA Film)

 

Wild cards: Downsizing, Shape of Water


Edited by Dent6084 - 8/29/17 at 2:23pm
post #34 of 331
That list seems pretty solid, though I am not sure that The Florida Project will have enough clout to get into the race. But it could be this year's Moonlight, I suppose.
post #35 of 331
Seems to be a lot of talk that we might see Dafoe take an Oscar, or at least a nomination, for The Florida Project.

I'd bet hard cash on Nolan taking Best Director. Just a feelin'.
post #36 of 331
Quote:
Originally Posted by COULD432 View Post

That list seems pretty solid, though I am not sure that The Florida Project will have enough clout to get into the race. But it could be this year's Moonlight, I suppose.

Yeah, that's what I'm figuring. It seems to be the #1 film that A24 (who pushed Room and Moonlight to BP noms and major wins, including the BP win for Moonlight) is pushing this year, it has Dafoe in a performance that's going to be a contender for the win. That'll get it in, though it'll pretty handily be the lowest-grossing nomination.

post #37 of 331

Betcha THE 15:17 TO PARIS is gonna be in there.  Word is that it's gonna get released this year for Oscar contention.

post #38 of 331
Already!?

Jesus Christ, Clint Eastwood makes a movie at the speed I blink.
post #39 of 331

You heard it here first, gang. Gonna be a clean sweep for PATTI CAKE$.

post #40 of 331
Quote:
Originally Posted by Moltisanti View Post
 

You heard it here first, gang. Gonna be a clean sweep for PATTI CAKE$.

 

You heard it here LAST, too.

 

:)

post #41 of 331
Quote:
Originally Posted by Judas Booth View Post
 

Betcha THE 15:17 TO PARIS is gonna be in there.  Word is that it's gonna get released this year for Oscar contention.

 

My gut feeling is it will be another film that gets a free-pass critically (despite in your face jarringly terrible elements that make it into his final cut) because of Clint.

 

Which... I mean I love me some Eastwood but casting the actual guys in the leads is all things "the fuck?!" God bless them. They are patriots... but they're not actors. Let professional actors do their job and do your story justice.

 

Commercially, it will play really well. He's been on a box-office hot-streak lately and I don't see this stopping that. But Oscar-wise, the studio's attention will be on getting Nolan his Oscar (and yes, I think it's his for the taking).


Edited by FilmNerdJamie - 8/29/17 at 2:43pm
post #42 of 331
Thread Starter 
Yup, it's already wrapped apparently. Only took 6 weeks or something like that.

It 'stars' the people involved in the actual terrorist attack, which is ballsy but I don't know what the performances will be like. Probably low key and realistic.
post #43 of 331
Quote:
Originally Posted by Bluelouboyle View Post

It 'stars' the people involved in the actual terrorist attack

 

I should probably have more faith in Clint, but this sounds like it has the potential to be a complete disaster. 

post #44 of 331

I don't know, think of all the movies released each week starring actual actors that can't act. What's the difference?

post #45 of 331

It's certainly critic-proof. 

 

If they suck, then the counter will be, "Hey, what did you expect? They're not actors by trade!"

If they work, then it will be, "Who else better to play it but themselves?"

 

The decision just doesn't sit well with me despite my admiration and respect for them (and Eastwood).

post #46 of 331

The supporting cast is even odder:

 

Jenna Fischer

Judy Greer

Thomas Lennon

Tony Hale

 

This is gonna be some madcap romp.

post #47 of 331
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dent6084 View Post
 

Festivals kick off tomorrow (Venice, w/ the premiere of Downsizing), so in advance of that, shot-in-the-dark BP predictions:

 

Call Me By Your Name

Darkest Hour

Dunkirk

Florida Project

Get Out

Last Flag Flying

The Post

Phantom Thread (aka Untitled PTA Film)

 

Wild cards: Downsizing, Shape of Water

 

I would swap one of these - probably DARKEST HOUR or the PTA - out for either WONDER WOMAN or that Eastwood movie. But other than that, this is a pretty solid list. Might also see a late surge for WONDERSTRUCK. 

post #48 of 331
Quote:
Originally Posted by Boone Daniels View Post
 

 

I would swap one of these - probably DARKEST HOUR or the PTA - out for either WONDER WOMAN or that Eastwood movie. But other than that, this is a pretty solid list. Might also see a late surge for WONDERSTRUCK. 


I'd say PTA is probably the weakest of that list, though maybe it'll get through on the strength of "DDL'S FINAL PERFORMANCE OMG". Darkest Hour feels like the obvious choice for that branch of the Academy that still goes for stuff like King's Speech or Imitation Game, plus it's all about fightin' them Nazis, so, timely!


Wonder Woman is another "I'd have to see it to believe it" in terms of getting in - it'd be battling Get Out for the zeitgeist slot, and that feels like it has more big-category possibilities w/ Peele and the screenplay. Plus, WB's gonna go all-in on Dunkirk, though it sounds like they'll try to see if they can get WW in. But where else does it get in? Jenkins would be a waaaaaaay outside shot for Director, and Gadot would probably be one of the most unpredictable noms of all time. Even the techs are weirdly packed this year.

post #49 of 331

I just don't buy the Wonder Woman Oscar talk. Besides some "For Your Consideration" ads and screenings (which WB did for not only The Dark Knight Trilogy but also Superman Returns and Green Lantern - seriously look it up), it feels like empty talk when their real awards attention will be on those with realistic chances. 

 

If The Dark Knight couldn't even achieve a nomination (and whose omission caused the Academy to change things up), what chance do this honestly have? Get Out will be the big commercial film that sneaks in, if any. And no, The Last Jedi won't either although we'll see countless think-pieces on the very subject.

post #50 of 331

Wonder Woman is one of the most critically acclaimed films of the year, it's one of the biggest hits of the year, and it's coming after FURY ROAD cleaned up. It could absolutely slide in.

 

I also have a feeling a dark horse might be THE CURRENT WAR, which could steal a lot of DARKEST HOUR's thunder. 

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