CHUD.com Community › Forums › THE MAIN SEWER › Movie Miscellany › 2017 Oscar race
New Posts  All Forums:Forum Nav:

2017 Oscar race - Page 3

post #101 of 343

If there is a spot for "The Little Indie That Could", personally I hope it goes to The Big Sick instead of Get Out.

post #102 of 343

Apparently Saoirse (like inertia) Ronan is so good in this Greta Gerwig movie that she may be emerging as the Actress frontrunner.

 

In other news, LAST FLAG FLYING's promo team has announced that Carell will be going for Lead and Cranston Supporting.

 

So I'd like to just remind Michael Stuhlbarg and Willem Dafoe that it's an honor to be nominated. 

post #103 of 343
Dafoe winning. Cranston zeroing in on EGOT.

Either way, it's a win.
post #104 of 343
Well, you wouldn't expect Cranston to compete with himself. Last summer's word of mouth smash Wakefield is a lock!
post #105 of 343
Quote:
Originally Posted by Boone Daniels View Post
 

Apparently Saoirse (like inertia) Ronan is so good in this Greta Gerwig movie that she may be emerging as the Actress frontrunner.

 

In other news, LAST FLAG FLYING's promo team has announced that Carell will be going for Lead and Cranston Supporting.

 

So I'd like to just remind Michael Stuhlbarg and Willem Dafoe that it's an honor to be nominated. 

Maybe not so fast - LFF reviews are hitting and they're more mixed than expected. Indeed, Carell seems to be the MVP consensus of the reviews I've seen.

post #106 of 343

Trumbo is a shitshow and Cranston got a nomination out of it. People love him. 

post #107 of 343

That's nice and all but Dafoe is winning. 

post #108 of 343
Quote:
Originally Posted by FilmNerdJamie View Post
 

That's nice and all but Dafoe is winning. 

 

Listen, anything to compensate the erstwhile Rick Masters for Streets of Fire and Off Limits.

 

If I couldn't get Keaton or Stallone wins, a (hypothetical) year where Oldman and Dafoe are your two actor winners is something I'll gladly accept. It could be a Transformers movie and I'd still pop the champagne.

 

Also still convinced that Nolan is walking away with Best Director. It follows the trend of risky, immersive films winning the award the past few years: Lee, Cuaron, Inarritu, and Chazelle all did something iconoclastic and unique with the material they directed.

post #109 of 343

He may be due as well, and this is as good an opportunity as Nolan's likely to serve up.

 

I don't know about Dunkirk's status will be otherwise, though. There's a pretty big slate.

post #110 of 343

Dunkirk has a very real shot at Editing and the sound categories, but even the latter might get threatened if Blade Runner 2049 lands with a warm reception.

post #111 of 343

A lot of the tech categories are probably going to come down to which horse WB decides to back, Dunkirk or Blade Runner 2049.

post #112 of 343
DUNKIRK it is!
post #113 of 343
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dent6084 View Post

A lot of the tech categories are probably going to come down to which horse WB decides to back, Dunkirk or Blade Runner 2049.

My guess: Blade Runner for production design, costume design and visual FX; Dunkirk for editing and sound. No idea which they'll push for cinematography.
Edited by Virtanen - 9/29/17 at 9:04am
post #114 of 343
Blade Runner because goddammit you idiots at the Academy, Deakins has EARNED THIS!
post #115 of 343

Okay, so I assume two things now from the Weinstein scandal.

 

One, all of his flicks are toxic and out of consideration. Not sure what that involves (The Current War I assume?)

 

Two, female directors/pictures are in with a real shot this year as Hollywood overcompensates (as it tends to do).

post #116 of 343

An interesting point, especially if this scandal is still going strong come Oscar time.  We could see another 'year of the woman' like we had 20 or so years ago, except THIS time it'll mean something.

 

Maybe WONDER WOMAN and Patty Jenkins will get in there after all, at least for noms.

post #117 of 343

The only big picture they have is THE CURRENT WAR, so that's out, but I don't think it was ever really in.

 

I can also see this - tangentially - killing WONDER WHEEL's chances. The focus is on Weinstein right now, and rightfully so, but the fact Ronan Farrow is involved in the reporting means Allen's name is going to come up again. 

post #118 of 343

I think a nomination is a lock, I thought it was pretty close before to be honest.

post #119 of 343

But Wonder Woman was sooo bad.

post #120 of 343

And a lot of course dependant on who gets caught in the shrapnel of this, presuming this is the sole scandal that comes out of Hollywood in the next few months. Affleck and Damon are looking shaky for example. 

post #121 of 343
Quote:
Originally Posted by Boone Daniels View Post
 

The only big picture they have is THE CURRENT WAR, so that's out, but I don't think it was ever really in.

 

I can also see this - tangentially - killing WONDER WHEEL's chances. The focus is on Weinstein right now, and rightfully so, but the fact Ronan Farrow is involved in the reporting means Allen's name is going to come up again. 


If this leads to a larger industry-wide accounting then yes. A whole lot of people could get caught in the undertow (Damon, as flint said, though Waxman just agreed with Damon's interview on Deadline where he describes the call having been a one-minute chat about his professional experience with Lombardo on Talented Mr. Ripley).

post #122 of 343

Yeah, Current War strikes me on paper as having been Oscar Bait, and it's coming out at the right time of year, but doesn't seem to be being marketed that way.

post #123 of 343
Quote:
Originally Posted by flint View Post
 

Yeah, Current War strikes me on paper as having been Oscar Bait, and it's coming out at the right time of year, but doesn't seem to be being marketed that way.

 

I mean, it hits a lot of the things I really like, so I'm going to see it no matter how awful it is. 

post #124 of 343

Yeah, if it's good, it's the sort of thing that could have got a supporting nom for Hoult or Shannon. Historical Drama and all that. But I would have expected the trailer (which I've literally only just watched) to be more earnest. It's almost pitched as an action flick, which strikes me as a lack of confidence in it's prestige status.

post #125 of 343

What I'll say about the Weinsteins' horses:

 

Wind River is a fucking tremendous, powerful film that hit me far harder than I expected, a disturbing neo-noir with Taylor Sheridan affirming himself as one of the best writers in film today and Jeremy Renner's best performance since The Hurt Locker, if not ever. If Elizabeth Olsen's character had been more fleshed out and more dramatic weight, given the narrative, this would have been a masterpiece.

 

The Current War got mixed word out the gate. Scandal or not, it would never have advanced.

 

Side note: they totally dicked The Founder over last year. If they campaigned it right, Keaton would've been nominated and won. An absolute tour de force.

----

Wonder Wheel will have some kind of new attacks on Woody Allen if it gets the reception of Blue Jasmine or Midnight in Paris. That's TBA.

 

I think Best Director is going to be a Nolan/Villeneuve/Del Toro grudge match, with my money on one of the first two. Not sure on Patty Jenkins.

 

Mudbound's chances are entirely on Netflix. Their advertising is always near-invisible.

 

Blade Runner 2049 and Dunkirk are the technical juggernauts.

 

Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri probably has Original Screenplay locked. Gary Oldman is locked. I see Sally Hawkins and Frances McDormans as the Actress frontrunners.

 

Still think Dafoe has Supporting Actor locked up, although who knows who the spoiler, if there is one, will be.

post #126 of 343

I think this will blow over by the Oscars. Not for Harvey, but for any films tangential to him. They won't benefit from his aggressive oscar marketing, of course, but it would be ridiculous to hold Weinstein against the movies. We don't hold Steve Mnuchin against Mad Max. Wonder Wheel and Current War seemed like nonstarters for the awards anyway though.

post #127 of 343

Wonder Wheel had buzz for Kate Winslet, but we won't know if it'll win critics over till this weekend.

 

Of Allen's stuff this decade, I've seen three of his stuff. I loved Midnight in Paris, greatly enjoyed Blue JasmineTo Rome with Love was whatever. It may be that: a non-starter.

post #128 of 343
Quote:
Originally Posted by HunterTarantino View Post
 

What I'll say about the Weinsteins' horses:

 

Wind River is a fucking tremendous, powerful film that hit me far harder than I expected, a disturbing neo-noir with Taylor Sheridan affirming himself as one of the best writers in film today and Jeremy Renner's best performance since The Hurt Locker, if not ever. If Elizabeth Olsen's character had been more fleshed out and more dramatic weight, given the narrative, this would have been a masterpiece.

 

 

Side note: they totally dicked The Founder over last year. If they campaigned it right, Keaton would've been nominated and won. An absolute tour de force.

----

 

This reminds me I need to see WIND RIVER. 

 

Also, if THE FOUNDER had come out last year it would have been my favorite film of 2016. What a picture. 

post #129 of 343
Thread Starter 
Keaton was good but I thought the movie was a bog standard biopic. Thoroughly mediocre.
post #130 of 343
Quote:
Originally Posted by Bluelouboyle View Post

Keaton was good but I thought the movie was a bog standard biopic. Thoroughly mediocre.

 

That "origin of the original McDonald's" sequence is fucking fantastic.

post #131 of 343

The Founder DID get an Oscar-qualifying run in L.A. last December. It counts for 2016. A lot like another great performance from Keaton, Clean and Sober, he elevates the movie. That last scene in the bathroom with Nick Offerman was a two-shot Oscar clip.

 

Wind River still has a chance to make my year-end top 10.

post #132 of 343

They really seemed to throw in the towel on The Founder. I didn't think it was all that great myself, but the probably could have coaxed a Keaton nom out of it.

post #133 of 343
Quote:
Originally Posted by HunterTarantino View Post
 

I think Best Director is going to be a Nolan/Villeneuve/Del Toro grudge match, with my money on one of the first two. Not sure on Patty Jenkins.

 

It's Nolan's. Been snubbed several times and now a "legit" contender that plays to what the Academy would reward. That just happened to be a big critical and commercial hit. This will most definitely be a "It's his time" campaign/narrative. Won't even be close. Doubt Villeneuve gets in and del Toro might pick up Best Original Screenplay as a consolation. Strangely I've had a feeling (right or wrong) our Best Picture winner will be Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri.

 

And even without the issues with Weinstein, I never pegged Wind River (my favorite film this year) to make a dent in the first place.

post #134 of 343

The Villeneuve suggestion is kind of interesting. Has there ever been a case where someone has been nominated for a Best Director Oscar for a movie that wasn't successful at the Box Office?

post #135 of 343
A Nolan win is something I’ve predicted since July. He’s paid his dues.

It’s time.
post #136 of 343
Quote:
Originally Posted by MrSaxon View Post
 

The Villeneuve suggestion is kind of interesting. Has there ever been a case where someone has been nominated for a Best Director Oscar for a movie that wasn't successful at the Box Office?

 

Plenty of times but not to that level of box-office failure, I don't think. 

 

The Hurt Locker has the distinction of being the lowest grossing film to win Best Picture ('till Moonlight) and that pretty much flopped.

post #137 of 343
Quote:
Originally Posted by MrSaxon View Post
 

The Villeneuve suggestion is kind of interesting. Has there ever been a case where someone has been nominated for a Best Director Oscar for a movie that wasn't successful at the Box Office?

Well, that depends. There have certainly been indies nominated without hitting $100 million, $50 million, even $30 million. But for a film like Blade Runner 2049, commercial success tends to be a big part of its Oscar narrative. Can't think offhand of the last time a genre flop was nominated for BD (or BP, for that matter).

post #138 of 343

I'm curious to see if Annapurna Pictures can give an awards push to both Phantom Thread and Kathryn Bigelow's Detroit. The latter is probably guaranteed for Best Editing and maybe Director.

post #139 of 343
Guaranteed? Because it made about zero impact when it was snuck onto screens six weeks ago. I'd be surprised to see it nominated for anything.
post #140 of 343
The Hurt Locker had similar response, strong reviews and two dollars at the box office.
post #141 of 343

Phantom Thread and The Post are the two big unknowables in the race right now, and I think Anapurna makes a push for Phantom Thread because of the Day-Lewis narrative. If Detroit had done better and been better received, maybe. 

post #142 of 343
Quote:
Originally Posted by FilmNerdJamie View Post
 

Strangely I've had a feeling (right or wrong) our Best Picture winner will be Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri.

 

 

I think that's going to be a contender as well.  The trailer is incendiary and compelling as hell, and the word on the film itself is that it lives up to that trailer.  It's playing at the TCFF in 10 days and I think we're gonna try and see it.

 

I still say that DUNKIRK is gonna take the Best Picture Oscar, though.  It's 'Nolan's time', and the film was a critical and box office hit.

post #143 of 343

I feel like Dunkirk needs a fourth quarter re-release around the holidays to remind people, though. 

post #144 of 343

Three Billboards seems a bit on the esoteric side, the side that sends to get screenplay and acting attention but probably isn't show-offy and universal enough for director or best picture.


DDL might be a long shot just because of the "come on, does he really need a fourth oscar?" factor.

post #145 of 343
Quote:
Originally Posted by Boone Daniels View Post
 

I feel like Dunkirk needs a fourth quarter re-release around the holidays to remind people, though. 

 

It wouldn't surprise me in the least if that happened, maybe for a couple of weeks in late November/early December.  Near as I can tell, it doesn't have a release date for home video, so the options are wide open for a re-release.

post #146 of 343

There will be Academy screenings for Dunkirk. Standard to hold those even if it's already out on home video and screeners are sent out. It's an opportunity for nominees to "wine and dine" (AKA: butt-kiss) voters. That's how Dr. Dolittle infamously got nominated outta nowhere back in '67.

post #147 of 343
Quote:
Originally Posted by Judas Booth View Post
 

 

It wouldn't surprise me in the least if that happened, maybe for a couple of weeks in late November/early December.  Near as I can tell, it doesn't have a release date for home video, so the options are wide open for a re-release.

 

They brought Wonder Woman back in wide release a week or two before it was out on Blu-ray.

 

If 2049 or Justice League numbers don't stick, I could see WB trying to make use of IMAX, PLF, and Atmos screens with Dunkirk before Ragnarok and The Last Jedi start spitting out bills at Disney's mint.

post #148 of 343

I could see a one week IMAX engagement of DUNKIRK doing very well come December.

post #149 of 343

Paul Thomas Anderson's next film, originally titled Phantom Thread, is officially titled... Phantom Thread!

 

Quote:
Continuing their creative collaboration following 2007’s There Will Be Blood, three-time Academy Award winner Daniel Day-Lewis stars in Phantom Thread from Paul Thomas Anderson. The writer/director will once again explore a distinctive milieu of the 20th century. The new movie is a drama set in the couture world of 1950s London. The story illuminates the life behind the curtain of an uncompromising dressmaker commissioned by royalty and high society.

 

The Christmas Day release is sticking.

post #150 of 343

So who wants to take bets on whether or not Casey Affleck will present next year? 

New Posts  All Forums:Forum Nav:
  Return Home
  Back to Forum: Movie Miscellany
CHUD.com Community › Forums › THE MAIN SEWER › Movie Miscellany › 2017 Oscar race