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2017 Oscar race - Page 6

post #251 of 343
Quote:
Originally Posted by Judas Booth View Post
 

Very surprised by that as it's an actor's showcase.  I guess it simply never picked up any heat.  Oh well, it'll be a film that, in a few years, people will say IT WAS ROBBED.

 

Usually like a month or so after the Oscars, dipshits come out of nowhere to say, "YOU KNOW I REALLY THOUGHT ________ SHOULD HAVE WON!" After they spent every waking breath backing the film or performance that won.

 

I remember that being with case with Crowe for The Insider. When the entire narrative/race was Spacey vs. Denzel and Crowe was never a legit contender that year.

 

Also reminded of that bullshit campaign for rewarding Matthew McConaughey for "caring again" in the last 2 years boiled my blood compared to DiCaprio who never phoned it in the last decade (even when the films didn't work). The moment McConaughey won, suddenly motherfuckers claiming how DiCaprio "really should have won" for The Wolf of Wall Street. That whole "McConaissance" couldn't have been more full of shit (and 100% media-fueled).

post #252 of 343
I liked both Harrelson and Rockwell a lot in Three Billboards, but I preferred Dafoe. Call Me By Your Name and Shape of Water haven’t opened yet here, so I can’t comment on those performances.
post #253 of 343

I saw Darkest Hour this weekend, and I think it's likely to be a big also-ran. It's a good movie, with a strong Oldman performance, reminiscent of Lincoln in a lot of ways. Just not quite as good. And also extremely British.

 

Good movie though. Worth a watch. Aside from Oldman, Ben Mendelsohn is very good as the King.

post #254 of 343

I can say plenty bad about DALLAS BUYERS CLUB, but Matty Mac is great in it. 

post #255 of 343
I still think the Best Actor Oscar is Oldman’s to lose. I know he hasn’t made a splash with the critics awards, but his highly technical role seems tailor made to garner votes from other actors over critics. Plus, I can’t see Best Actor going to a 21 year old or to Tom Hanks. If he couldn’t get nominated for Captain Phillips, I can’t see him winning for The Post, unless it becomes a major hit.

The one question mark in the race for me is Daniel Day Lewis. The critics seem to really like the film, but I feel like its first screenings were outshone by Lady Bird/Three Billboards successful holiday expansions and the premiere of The Post. I am wondering if he can pick up hear later in the season.
post #256 of 343

My guess is that Chalamet will win some more of the critic's awards, but the bigger awards will start to go to Oldman, Hanks, and Day-Lewis. 

 

I have a feeling Day-Lewis will take it in the end. 

post #257 of 343

Not taking the various Critics' Choice awards to heart (yet). They don't tend to match-up with who actually takes the Oscar.

post #258 of 343

Just fooled my mom into watching Get Out today.

 

"That was horrible! I thought it was a comedy!"

"But it is a comedy! It's satire! It's getting Oscar talk!"
"What were they doing? I thought it was a remake of Guess Who's Coming to Dinner."

"Well, it kinda is."

 

I think The Sixth Sense was the last horror movie she watched.

post #259 of 343

Just caught Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri and... I don't know. The hype blew it out of the water. Excellent performances (McDormand with her best work since Fargo and Rockwell are guaranteed nominations, Harrelson is also excellent), but the flow of the story seemed a bit odd. I hated the ending, and I love how stuff like No Country ends.

 

Non-betting gentleman's prediction: Picture, Actress, Rockwell, Original Screenplay will all be Oscar nominations for this, but no wins.

post #260 of 343

They're released the shortlist for the Visual Effects award and ... it's not very short.  This'll get whittled down to 10, and from there they'll pick the nominees.

 

Alien: Covenant
Beauty and the Beast
Blade Runner 2049
Dunkirk
Ghost in the Shell
Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2
Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle
Justice League
Kong: Skull Island
Life
Logan
Okja
Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Men Tell No Tales
The Shape of Water
Spider-Man Homecoming
Star Wars: The Last Jedi
Thor: Ragnarok
Valerian and the City of a Thousand Planets
War for the Planet of the Apes
Wonder Woman

 

Out of that bunch, given what I've seen, I'd probably go with Blade Runner, Dunkirk, Ghost in the Shell, Thor and War.  But I imagine Last Jedi will creep in there once I see it.

post #261 of 343

I'd swap Ghost in the Shell with Last Jedi and that will likely be the lineup. Dunkirk will be the ostensible prestige nominee.

post #262 of 343
SHAPE OF WATER is almost guaranteed to be in too.
post #263 of 343
Quote:

Originally Posted by HunterTarantino View Post

 

Unless Christopher Plummer is HOLY SHIT WHY WAS HE NOT CAST IN THE FIRST PLACE with white-hot reviews for All the Money in the World and/or Rockwell gains momentum, Dafoe is finally getting the Oscar he deserved for Streets of Fire 30+ years ago.





 



All the Money will get some kind of a "kick a rapist when he's down" nomination, out of general principle. The supporting actor seems pretty crowded, so maybe sir Ridley gets a director nom. It also helps he's 170 years old and hasn't won the prize yet.


Edited by Virtanen - 12/5/17 at 5:35am
post #264 of 343
I know that the conventional wisdom is that Christopher Nolan is a lock for a nomination for Dunkirk, but honestly that film seems to be behind Call Me By Your Name, Lady Bird, The Post, Get Out, and The Florida Project early in the awards precursors. With Guillermo del Toro and Martin McDonagh also in the mix.

I'm not going to be surprised if it merely gets craft nominations.
post #265 of 343

There isn't a chance in hell Nolan isn't getting nominated. In terms of critical to commercial success ratio, Dunkirk still leads the pack. Get Out is up there too, but I'd be pretty surprised if Peele gets nominated.

post #266 of 343

4 months ago, I'd have said that DUNKIRK was a lock to take Best Picture, Director, and a ton of other prizes.  Now, I'm not sure.  It really seems to have lost a significant amount of heat.  I still say it's the best film overall that I've seen this year, though.

post #267 of 343
I suspect it loses a lot on home video. It's also not going to snag any acting nominations and it's no shoe in for screenplay. That's a non-traditional path for a major contender. Especially with Blade Runner 2049 also being direct competition for some of the craft awards.

It's a lock for editing, cinematography, sound, and production design noms. Editing might be its only win though.
post #268 of 343
Quote:
Originally Posted by Judas Booth View Post
 

4 months ago, I'd have said that DUNKIRK was a lock to take Best Picture, Director, and a ton of other prizes.  Now, I'm not sure.  It really seems to have lost a significant amount of heat.  I still say it's the best film overall that I've seen this year, though.

 

It'll get nominated for all of them, but there's a good chance it won't win. Got released way too early for its own good.

post #269 of 343

I also think critics' awards favor the more indie stuff, and Dunkirk can make a strong showing in the more mainstream stuff like SAG and the Globes. I think Peele has even more serious heat than he did a week ago, but CMBYN is close. 

 

This is also a matter of timing - despite Get Out opening in the first part of the year, I think DUNKIRK has been out for so long that it's left the conversation a little bit. 

 

It's a great reminder of something Vulture proposed a few years ago regarding awards season - rather than nominate between 5 and 10 films, the Academy should nominate a flat ten, but divide it into quarters, with two wild card slots: 

 

January - March - Quarter 1

Apr - June - Quarter 2

Jul - Sept - Quarter 3

Oct - December - Quarter 4

 

That would allow for a greater distribution of "Oscar movies" throughout the year, and keep films in conversation at the end of each quarter. So for example, here's what a list from 2016 might look like: 
 

ZOOTOPIA (Quarter 1)

MIDNIGHT SPECIAL (Quarter 1) (I didn't see it, but I'm just going on critical appraisal)

GREEN ROOM (Quarter 2)

THE NICE GUYS (Quarter 2)

KUBO AND THE TWO STRINGS (Quarter 3)

QUEEN OF KATWE (Quarter 3)

LA LA LAND (Quarter 4)

MOONLIGHT (Quarter 4)

THE WITCH (Wild card, quarter 1)

HIDDEN FIGURES (Wild card, quarter 4)

post #270 of 343
It's ensemble or bust for Dunkirk at the SAGs. It really needs a DGA nom.
post #271 of 343

The Sight & Sound Top 25 list came out today, and while it rarely has an impact on the Oscar race, it has some interesting choices - https://thefilmstage.com/news/get-out-and-twin-peaks-the-return-lead-sight-sounds-best-films-of-2017-poll/

 

1. Get Out

2. Twin Peaks: The Return (eh...I loved it, but it's a season of television)
3. Call Me By Your Name

4. Zama

5. Western

6. Face Places

7. Good Time

8. Loveless

9. Dunkirk

9. The Florida Project (tie)

post #272 of 343

Three of those will likely end up on my year-end list.

 

Meanwhile, I saw and was totally won over by Lady Bird today. What Clueless was for the 90's and Mean Girls for the 00's in teen feminism, but 100,000 times better articulated and more realistic. Shades of Rushmore-era Wes Anderson at points.

 

I'd say Laurie Metcalf is a lock for Supporting Actress. Holy shit, I want to convince 2015 me to just go see that production of Misery for her. And while I WANT it, something faint tells me Saoirse Ronan will take Actress if it continues momentum. Gerwig deserves a Director nomination and is a contender for Original Screenplay. If Supporting Actor wasn't as stacked as it is this year, I'd put Tracy Letts in the conversation.

 

Just a great, great movie. Filled me with joy. I can't remember something in recent memory that ended, where I wish it went on for longer.

post #273 of 343

Critic's Choice Award Nominations:

 

http://variety.com/2017/film/awards/critics-choice-film-nominations-list-1202631789/

 

The Shape of Water leads the overall tally, followed by The Post, CMBYN, Florida Project, and Lady Bird. Also (even though they have six nominees), Patrick Stewart keeps popping up for Logan in Best Supporting Actor. We'll see what happens w/ the Globes and SAG next week, I guess.

post #274 of 343
C’mon Nolan... anything 2049 got... and holy crap the Baby Driver editing nom!

Meanwhile, shit goddammit they shut out Twin Peaks. Overjoyed that Cannavale scored a nom for Mr. Robot though!
post #275 of 343

Cahiers du Cinema released their top 10 of the year. As usual, their list is fairly wacky:

 

1. Twin Peaks: The Return

2. Jeannette: The Childhood of Joan of Arc

3. Certain Women

4. Get Out

5. The Day After

6. Lover For A Day

7. Good Time

8. Split (!)

9. Jackie

10. Billy Lynn's Long Halftime Walk

 

EDIT: It was released late last year, but it's too bad Silence has been forgotten.


Edited by Mangy - 12/6/17 at 10:12am
post #276 of 343

The AFI released their top ten films:

 

The Big Sick
Call Me by Your Name
Dunkirk
The Florida Project
Get Out
Lady Bird
The Post
The Shape of Water
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Wonder Woman

post #277 of 343

That's a big chunk of my current list.  

post #278 of 343
I’m glad to see Florida Project not getting lost in the shuffle. It’s an excellent movie.
post #279 of 343
I really thought Florida Project would be mostly shut out besides a nomination for Dafoe. Now, I think Dafoe has the inside track at winning and that the film itself might sneak into the best picture list - both of which would be well deserved.
post #280 of 343
Yeah, I think the AFI's list, minus The Big Sick and Wonder Woman is the likely list of BP nominees. With The Phantom Thread and Disaster Artist at least in the conversation.
post #281 of 343

has ALL THE MONEY IN THE WORLD even screened yet for any sort of nominations?  Just curious if Plummer might still sneak in there.

post #282 of 343
Quote:
Originally Posted by Judas Booth View Post
 

has ALL THE MONEY IN THE WORLD even screened yet for any sort of nominations?  Just curious if Plummer might still sneak in there.

 

As far as I know, no, it has not. They didn't even finish shooting until the 29th, so the earliest it would have been seen was this week, and the Golden Globe deadline was yesterday. 

post #283 of 343

Yeah, if Plummer sneaks in, it only will be at the Oscars themselves. Maybe the BAFTAs? I don't know what their deadline is.

post #284 of 343
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dent6084 View Post
 

Yeah, if Plummer sneaks in, it only will be at the Oscars themselves. Maybe the BAFTAs? I don't know what their deadline is.

 

BAFTAs were October 16th, 2017.

 

For nerds: 

 

Oscar nominations open Jan 5th, and close the 12th.

 

They announce the nominees on the 23rd. 

post #285 of 343
Quote:
Originally Posted by Judas Booth View Post
 

has ALL THE MONEY IN THE WORLD even screened yet for any sort of nominations?  Just curious if Plummer might still sneak in there.

 

Quote:
Originally Posted by Boone Daniels View Post
 

As far as I know, no, it has not. They didn't even finish shooting until the 29th, so the earliest it would have been seen was this week, and the Golden Globe deadline was yesterday. 

 

It screened for Golden Globes consideration earlier this week.

post #286 of 343

Golden Globe noms are in.  Plummer for BSA and Ridley for Directing on ALL THE MONEY IN THE WORLD.

 

 

PEST PICTURE - DRAMA

Call Me by Your Name

Dunkirk

The Post

The Shape of Water

Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

 

BEST PICTURE - MUSICAL/COMEDY

The Disaster Artist

Get Out

The Greatest Showman

I, Tonya

Lady Bird

 

BEST PICTURE - ANIMATED

The Boss Baby

The Breadwinner

Coco

Ferdinand

Loving Vincent

 

BEST PICTURE - FOREIGN LANGUAGE

Fantastic Women

First They Killed My Father

In the Fade

Loveless

The Square

 

BEST ACTRESS, MOTION PICTURE - DRAMA

Jessica Chastain, Molly’s Game

Sally Hawkins, The Shape of Water

Frances McDormand, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

Meryl Streep, The Post

Michelle Williams, All the Money in the World

 

BEST ACTOR, MOTION PICTURE - DRAMA

Timothée Chalamet, Call Me By Your Name

Daniel Day-Lewis, Phantom Thread

Tom Hanks, The Post

Gary Oldman, Darkest Hour

Denzel Washington, Roman J. Israel, Esq.

 

BEST ACTRESS, MOTION PICTURE - MUSICAL/COMEDY

Judi Dench, Victoria & Abdul

Helen Mirren, The Leisure Seeker

Margot Robbie, I, Tonya

Saoirse Ronan, Lady Bird

Emma Stone, Battle of the Sexes

 

BEST ACTOR, MOTION PICTURE - MUSICAL/COMEDY

Steve Carell, Battle of the Sexes

Ansel Elgort, Baby Driver

James Franco, The Disaster Artist

Hugh Jackman, The Greatest Showman

Daniel Kaluuya, Get Out

 

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS, MOTION PICTURE

Mary J. Blige, Mudbound

Hong Chau, Downsizing

Allison Janney, I, Tonya

Laurie Metcalf, Lady Bird

Octavia Spencer, The Shape of Water

 

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR, MOTION PICTURE

Willem Dafoe, The Florida Project

Armie Hammer, Call Me By Your Name

Richard Jenkins, The Shape of Water

Christopher Plummer, All the Money in the World

Sam Rockwell, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

 

BEST DIRECTOR, MOTION PICTURE

Guillermo del Toro, The Shape of Water

Martin McDonagh, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

Christopher Nolan, Dunkirk

Ridley Scott, All the Money in the World

Steven Spielberg, The Post

 

BEST SCREENPLAY, MOTION PICTURE

The Shape of Water

The Post

Lady Bird

Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

Molly’s Game

 

BEST SCORE, MOTION PICTURE

Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

The Shape of Water

Phantom Thread

The Post

Dunkirk

 

BEST SONG, MOTION PICTURE

“Home,” Ferdinand

“Mighty River,” Mudbound

“Remember Me,” Coco

“The Star,” The Star

“This Is Me,” The Greatest Showman

 

BEST TV SHOW, DRAMA

The Crown

Game of Thrones

The Handmaid’s Tale

Stranger Things

This Is Us

 

BEST TV SHOW, MUSICAL/COMEDY

Black-ish

The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel

Master of None

SMILF

Will & Grace

 

BEST TV LIMITED SERIES/MOVIE FOR TV

Big Little Lies

Fargo

Feud: Bette and Joan

Top of the Lake: China Girl

The Sinner

 

BEST ACTRESS, TV LIMITED SERIES/MOVIE FOR TV

Jessica Biel, The Sinner

Nicole Kidman, Big Little Lies

Jessica Lange, Feud: Joan and Bette

Susan Sarandon,

Reese Witherspoon

 

BEST ACTOR, TV LIMITED SERIES/MOVIE FOR TV

Robert De Niro, The Wizard of Lies

Jude Law, The Young Pope

Kyle MacLachlan, Twin Peaks

Ewan McGregor, Fargo

Geoffrey Rush, Genius

 

BEST ACTRESS TV - DRAMA

Caitriona Balfe, Outlander

Claire Foy, The Crown

Maggie Gyllenhaal, The Deuce

Katherine Langford, 13 Reasons Why

Elisabeth Moss, The Handmaid’s Tale

 

BEST ACTOR TV - DRAMA

Jason Bateman, Ozark

Sterling K. Brown, This is Us

Freddie Highmore, The Good Doctor

Bob Odenkirk, Better Call Saul

Liev Schreiber, Ray Donovan

 

BEST ACTRESS TV, MUSICAL/COMEDY

Pamela Adlon, Better Things

Alison Brie, GLOW

Rachel Brosnahan, The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel

Issa Rae, Insecure

Frankie Shaw, SMILF

 

BEST ACTOR TV, MUSICAL/COMEDY

Anthony Anderson, Blackish

Aziz Ansari, Master of None

Kevin Bacon, I Love Dick

William H. Macy, Shameless

Eric McCormack, Will & Grace

 

BEST SUPPPORTING ACTRESS, TV - TV LIMITED SERIES/MOVIE FOR TV

Laura Dern,  Big Little Lies

Ann Dowd, The Handmaid’s Tale

Chrissy Metz, This Is Us

Michelle Pfeiffer, The Wizard of Lies

Shailene Woodley, Big Little Lies

 

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR TV - TV LIMITED SERIES/MOVIE FOR TV

David Harbour, Stranger Things

Alfred Molina, Feud: Bette and Joan

Christian Slater, Mr. Robot

Alexander Skarsgard, Big Little Lies

David Thewlis, Fargo


Edited by Judas Booth - 12/11/17 at 6:26am
post #287 of 343
Quote:
Originally Posted by Judas Booth View Post
 

Golden Globe noms are in.  Plummer for BSA and Ridley for Directing on ALL THE MONEY IN THE WORLD.

 

Look, lots of people are happy with Golden Globe nominations. There's no shame in only getting a Golden Globe nomination. 

post #288 of 343
post #289 of 343

Updated my post above with the list (note: copy/pasted from another site).

 

Some thoughts:

THE GREATEST SHOWMAN came through with a few nods.  Is it possible it's actually 'good'?

Michelle Williams got in for ALL THE MONEY IN THE WORLD  as well.  

I hope Jessica Lange finally gets a win for FEUD.

post #290 of 343

No. No, there is no way in the world Greatest Showman is good. In a world where they don't split the nominations and the Golden Globes aren't run by a bunch of secretive star-fuckers, it gets zero nominations. The only reason it got those nominations is because it needed to fill a comedy and musical slot. Any time there's a musical that comes out, it is all but guaranteed to get nominated for a Golden Globe. You know what also got nominated for a Golden Globe in that category? THE PHANTOM OF THE OPERA, widely acknowledged as one of the worst musicals in the history of movie musicals. 

 

Again, the fact that the Globes are a limited pool of voters who love hanging out with movie stars is why ALL THE MONEY got nominated for the awards it did. 

 

Feud (Judas's ALL THE MONEY IN THE WORLD of television) isn't winning. Not when it's up against Big Little Lies (see: star-fuckers).

post #291 of 343

That's a lot of love for The Shape of Water.

 

Right on, del Toro! 

post #292 of 343
I see people are complaining that WONDER WOMAN was excluded because... of course they are.
post #293 of 343

I've seen a few posts from people who have seen The Greatest Showman and said it was really good.

 

Totally giddy that Marvelous Mrs. Maisel and Rachel Brosnahan got nominations for Comedy Series.  Well deserved.

post #294 of 343

As chuffed as I am that Balfe and Foy have been recognised, I think it would be a crime to give that award to anyone other than Maggie Gyllenhaal this year. 

post #295 of 343
Quote:
Originally Posted by MrSaxon View Post
 

As chuffed as I am that Balfe and Foy have been recognised, I think it would be a crime to give that award to anyone other than Maggie Gyllenhaal this year. 

 

I'd be shocked if Maggie didn't win.  It's career defining work.

post #296 of 343

I'm actually incredibly surprised that there isn't more Golden Globe love for that show. I think it deserved a place at the Best Television Series - Drama table more than This Is Us (from what I've heard of the current season of that show).

post #297 of 343

THE DEUCE has no stars, though. Really, that's the defining metric for a body that gave more than one nomination to THE TOURIST. 

post #298 of 343

It has Franco, but he already got the nod for The Disaster Artist this year.

post #299 of 343
It’s got two Francos, though!
post #300 of 343

Deuce Francos?!?

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