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2017 Oscar race - Page 2

post #51 of 331
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dent6084 View Post
 

Festivals kick off tomorrow (Venice, w/ the premiere of Downsizing), so in advance of that, shot-in-the-dark BP predictions:

 

Call Me By Your Name

Darkest Hour

Dunkirk

Florida Project

Get Out

Last Flag Flying

The Post

Phantom Thread (aka Untitled PTA Film)

 

Wild cards: Downsizing, Shape of Water

 

Ridley Scott's All the Money in the World has the potential to be this year's (for lack of a better term) prestigious crime thriller, in the vein of Hell or High Water and The Departed, or if we go further back, In the Line of Fire and The Fugitive. That is, if Scott's film is good.

post #52 of 331

Thing is, 'prestige' isn't necessarily what Scott is best at, aside from maybe the historical epic kind of prestige movie. There's a reasonable chance this one will turn out stately, but dull. I reckon he'd have a better shot at oscar glory with the big Cartel movie he was supposed to be doing.

post #53 of 331

It's weird to talk about a movie that hasn't even had a trailer out yet, but All the Money feels more like a Tony Scott picture than a Ridley joint. Which is the same I felt about Ridley's The Martian, both seem like straight forward no-nonsense thrillers with A-list movie stars. Maybe 'prestige' was the wrong term?

post #54 of 331
Another film that could appeal to the older academy members: Breathe, the film with Andrew Garfield as a man who becomes a quadriplegic from polio and Claire Foy as the wife who stands by him. It looks a lot like The Theory of Everything...though with an admittedly much less famous subject.
post #55 of 331
Quote:
Originally Posted by Boone Daniels View Post
 

Wonder Woman is one of the most critically acclaimed films of the year, it's one of the biggest hits of the year, and it's coming after FURY ROAD cleaned up. It could absolutely slide in.

 

 

The only aspects of it which were Oscar-worthy were the technical side of things but WB would be competing against itself as Dunkirk is going to be all over those categories. 

post #56 of 331
Quote:
Originally Posted by MrSaxon View Post
 

 

The only aspects of it which were Oscar-worthy were the technical side of things but WB would be competing against itself as Dunkirk is going to be all over those categories. 


And Blade Runner 2049. That's probably going to compete for a whole bunch of tech noms too.

post #57 of 331

Speaking of Venice, first rave from the Guardian: 

https://www.theguardian.com/film/2017/aug/30/downsizing-review-alexander-payne-matt-damon-venice-film-festival-2017?utm_source=esp&utm_medium=Email&utm_campaign=Film+Today+-+automated+vB+curation&utm_term=241639&subid=16630566&CMP=ema_861a 
 

I maintain this is still going to be too weird for mainstream Oscar voters, like Synechdote or that Charlie Kaufmann puppet movie. 

post #58 of 331

I'd like to see which hopeful gets bumped to 2018 in the next few weeks.

post #59 of 331
Killing of a Sacred Deer and Three Billboards both feel like movies too dark for the Academy that will be ignored, if released in the fall, for the adult dramas actually in the race. I could see one or both moving to spring or early next summer as blockbuster counter-programming.
post #60 of 331
Quote:
Originally Posted by Boone Daniels View Post
 

Speaking of Venice, first rave from the Guardian: 

https://www.theguardian.com/film/2017/aug/30/downsizing-review-alexander-payne-matt-damon-venice-film-festival-2017?utm_source=esp&utm_medium=Email&utm_campaign=Film+Today+-+automated+vB+curation&utm_term=241639&subid=16630566&CMP=ema_861a 
 

I maintain this is still going to be too weird for mainstream Oscar voters, like Synechdote or that Charlie Kaufmann puppet movie. 


Yeah, but it looks like Hong Chau and Christoph Waltz are going to be in the hunt this year in the supporting categories (though, oddly, not Damon, who's getting mixed reviews). Shape of Water premieres in about 8 hours, will be very interesting to see if the pre-release hype about it being a potential contender holds up. GDT joining Inarritu and Cuaron would be pretty wild.

post #61 of 331

Hong Chau's name has been tossed around for months as a possible nominee. If Waltz clinched one, it'd be his first that Tarantino didn't direct.

post #62 of 331

Donald Sutherland, Agnes Varda, Charles Burnett, and Owen Roizman will be awarded this year's Honorary Oscars.

 

http://variety.com/2017/film/in-contention/2017-governors-awards-recipients-1202548414/

 

That's awesome.

post #63 of 331

Really glad for Sutherland. A great actor with a library of wonderful performances. Well deserved.

post #64 of 331
Sutherland has more than earned his dues and a nomination has somehow eluded him.

Awesome to hear.
post #65 of 331

Took 28 years but I'm glad the Academy now realizes he should have been recognized for his work as Warden Drumgoole.

post #66 of 331
Quote:
Originally Posted by Moltisanti View Post

Took 28 years but I'm glad the Academy now realizes he should have been recognized for his work as Warden Drumgoole.

Only you would dare, Molt.

Really, this is finally giving him his due for being The Clumsy Waiter.
post #67 of 331
Had CITIZEN X been released theatrically, Sutherland would have received an Oscar nom for supporting actor (and Stephen Rea a nom for actor). Great HBO film.
post #68 of 331
Quote:
Originally Posted by Judas Booth View Post

Had CITIZEN X been released theatrically, Sutherland would have received an Oscar nom for supporting actor (and Stephen Rea a nom for actor). Great HBO film.

 

Same would've happened for Michael Douglas and Matt Damon in Behind the Candelabra.

 

And the Band Played On would have been stiff competition for Schindler's List if that was theatrical, too.

post #69 of 331

Dunkirk for Best Picture based on contemporaneous footage of the Cajun Navy rescuing people in Houston. BELIEVE IT!

post #70 of 331

Great news.

 

That said, the continued insistence of awarding of women and people of color in a ceremony seen by a couple thousand people on YouTube instead of a billion on the ceremony itself is hot bullshit. 

post #71 of 331
Thread Starter 
I forgot Sorkin's directorial debut MOLLY'S GAME is out this year. A look at that and STRONGER:

http://variety.com/2017/film/in-contention/jake-gyllenhaal-stronger-oscars-1202549272/amp/

To sum up, looks like a damn good year.
post #72 of 331
Shape of Water just won the Golden Lion/BP prize at Venice. GDT's comin' for the Oscar nom.
post #73 of 331
I'm still calling Nolan for Director, but the nerds will war.
post #74 of 331

Nolan is definitely the leading contender. But I also feel like Linklater is about to have a moment and seize the "he's due" narrative. 

post #75 of 331

I hope that lives up to the hype too. Last Flag Flying doesn't feel like the sort of thing Linklater would jump for, but goddamn if it doesn't look great. Bare minimum, the cast will get recognized and Linklater's a formidable Adapted Screenplay contender.

 

This is shaping to be the best year for movies in a while. With the exception of April and May, there's been at least a movie a month that's been at least great.

post #76 of 331

Post-TIFF/Telluride/Venice Predictions:

 

BP:

The Shape of Water

Dunkirk

The Florida Project

Last Flag Flying

Call Me By Your Name

Darkest Hour

Get Out

The Post

 

Director:

Nolan, Dunkirk

GDT, Shape of Water

Linklater, LFF

Spielberg, Post

NGNG: Jordan Peele, Get Out

 

Actor:

Oldman, Darkest Hour

DDL, Phantom Thread

Cranston, LFF

Timothee Chalamet, CMBYN

Denzel (Roman Israel Esq is... not getting good reviews, but he's getting decent ink and the role sounds baity)

 

Actress:

Sally Hawkins, Shape of Water

Streep, The Post

McDormand, Three Billboards...

Stone, Battle of the Sexes

Winslet, Wonder Wheel

 

S. Actor:
Dafoe, Florida Project

Stuhlbarg, CMBYN

Rockwell, Three Billboards...

Shannon, Shape of Water

Fishburne, LFF

 

S. Actress:

Holly Hunter, The Big Sick

KST or Juno Temple, Darkest Hour

Allison Janney, I Tonya

Hong Chau, Downsizing

Octavia Spencer, Shape of Water

 

Doesn't feel right even as spitballing - Actor and S. Actress feel like a total mess, while Actress/S. Actor are unbelievably stacked this year. But I guess we'll see.

post #77 of 331

Do we think Hanx goes for Supporting or Actor for POST?

 

And here's my BP top ten based on this thread and others: 
 

  1. The Shape of Water
  2. Dunkirk
  3. The Florida Project
  4. Last Flag Flying
  5. Call Me By Your Name
  6. Get Out
  7. The Post
  8. Wonder Woman
  9. Phantom Thread
  10. Molly's Game

 

I think those first eight are pretty solid. I really think Darkest Hour is going to disappoint; it might pick up the Actor nomination but I think its chances otherwise are limited. 

 

Would not be surprised if Molly's Game - which got RAVES out of the festival circuit - makes a big play/splash. A nomination for Chastain is pretty assured, I think. 

 

Also, my "I really want this to happen even though it has no chance in hell of ever happening" nomination for this year? Alison Williams, Best Supporting Actress, GET OUT. 

post #78 of 331
My WTF, should but won't happen nominee hope is Jon Hamm for Baby Driver.
post #79 of 331
Quote:
Originally Posted by Boone Daniels View Post
 

Do we think Hanx goes for Supporting or Actor for POST?

 

And here's my BP top ten based on this thread and others: 
 

  1. The Shape of Water
  2. Dunkirk
  3. The Florida Project
  4. Last Flag Flying
  5. Call Me By Your Name
  6. Get Out
  7. The Post
  8. Wonder Woman
  9. Phantom Thread
  10. Molly's Game

 

I think those first eight are pretty solid. I really think Darkest Hour is going to disappoint; it might pick up the Actor nomination but I think its chances otherwise are limited. 

 

Would not be surprised if Molly's Game - which got RAVES out of the festival circuit - makes a big play/splash. A nomination for Chastain is pretty assured, I think. 

 

Also, my "I really want this to happen even though it has no chance in hell of ever happening" nomination for this year? Alison Williams, Best Supporting Actress, GET OUT. 


I bet Hanks goes lead, but dude hasn't been nominated since 2000. Ben Bradlee is a pretty baity role, but it's probably going to be seen as the same mold as his BoS/Sully/Captain Phillips performances and not get recognized.

 

Good call on Molly's Game - like I said, Best Actress is stacked as all hell. Could see Elba making a play in Supporting Actor as well.

 

And my "c'mon, give them the nomination!" pick thus far are Hathaway and Sudeikis in Colossal.

post #80 of 331
Looks like a lot of folk are saying Oldman is a done deal at this point. I'm leaning towards Sally Hawkins being the victor of Best Actress, although Kate Winslet and Annette Bening are both certainties.

Dafoe feels like a sure bet for The Florida Project, too, but a year where Gary Oldman and Willem Dafoe are both crowned Oscar winners seems too perfect.

I feel like Oldman is more susceptible to a challenger jumping in, a la Keaton or Stallone.

Get Out will absolutely get a Best Original Screenplay nomination. I'm super confident in that.

Another dream choice: James McAvoy getting a Best Actor nomination for Split. Best performance Shyalaman has ever directed. Best horror performance since Hopkins as Lecter. If it came out late 2016, he'd have at least claimed a Golden Globe nomination.
post #81 of 331

I'm not confident yet calling Oldman a done deal. If anything, he's got to face off attacks from Cranston (competing for the "he's due" narrative) and DDL (for his last performance EVER, particularly if it is something tragic like him battling a terminal illness in real life, hence the retirement). 

 

I'm also very skeptical about SHAPE OF WATER until it plays in the US, frankly. Del Toro's work has always been better received abroad, it seems, and he has yet to truly break through with a critically acclaimed English-language picture.

post #82 of 331
Where did the Day-Lewis tragedy thing come in?
post #83 of 331
Quote:
Originally Posted by HunterTarantino View Post

Where did the Day-Lewis tragedy thing come in?

 

There is speculation (unfounded, rumors) that the sudden announcement of his retirement and the silence that's followed after means he's sick. 

post #84 of 331
He's retired before though, yeah? When he went to be a cobbler's apprentice in Italy for a bit. Or did I just imagine that?
post #85 of 331

He took some time off after THE BOXER to go make shoes, but there was no formal announcement of "retirement," I don't think. 

 

Anyway, it feels kind of gross in retrospect to be speculating like this, so I'll just say that the retirement narrative around PHANTOM THREAD is a strong one. 

post #86 of 331

Just checked out that Ridley's All the Money in the World was written by David Scarpa, whose previous credits are The Day the Earth Stood Still remake and The Last Castle. So... maybe it won't necessary be a major player here? Also, The Disaster Artist is getting terrific reviews, especially James Franco's performance as Tommy Wiseau. It would be bizarre if somehow Wiseau ends up attending the event.

post #87 of 331
I could see All the Money in the World getting knocked to 2018.
post #88 of 331
Thread Starter 
Most people aren't keen on ROMAN ISRAEL esq or whatever it's called. Plotless mess, apparently. Shame after the terrific NIGHTCRAWLER.
post #89 of 331

Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri just won the People's Choice Prize at Toronto, a very good indicator of BP chances, and given that it looks like McDormand, Rockwell, and Original Screenplay will all be very strong contenders for nominations, looks like this is making a play for the big nom too.

post #90 of 331
I'd been working on a mother-versus-alt-right-shitheads revenge movie that this one has pretty much killed because I can't think of a configuration that would differentiate itself entirely from the material, despite there being no cops and a less comic tone. And I can't top Martin McDonagh. I can't.

But to see McDormand at her highest stock since Fargo, Sam Rockwell getting serious Oscar talk, and McDonagh with what's likely his strongest film yet (although In Bruges is classic)... this is probably going to be great.
post #91 of 331
This Winder Woman talk confuses me. Logan is right there!
post #92 of 331
I'd love nominations for both.

But Logan should clinch anything and everything it's eligible for. Jackman and Stewart's performances are transcendent, considering the time they've spent in their respective roles.

And for a near-$100 million R-rated blockbuster, the way it approaches its subject matter is more unflinching than anything I've seen in a studio film in the last decade, let alone a franchise, superhero deal.

Oh yeah, definitely the most violent thing a major studio has put in wide release since Rambo too.
post #93 of 331
Quote:
Originally Posted by HunterTarantino View Post

I'd love nominations for both.

But Logan should clinch anything and everything it's eligible for. Jackman and Stewart's performances are transcendent, considering the time they've spent in their respective roles.

And for a near-$100 million R-rated blockbuster, the way it approaches its subject matter is more unflinching than anything I've seen in a studio film in the last decade, let alone a franchise, superhero deal.

Oh yeah, definitely the most violent thing a major studio has put in wide release since Rambo too.

 

This.  Fucking all of this.

post #94 of 331
I didn't know ambler was so crazy for LOGAN
post #95 of 331

If Oldman were to win an Oscar this year, would it be the first time two different actors have taken home an Emmy and an Oscar respectively, for playing the same character? 

 

No, I don't know, either! 

post #96 of 331

Albert Finney also has an Emmy for playing Churchill. 

post #97 of 331

Sorry, I meant in the same year.

post #98 of 331

If Darkest Hour wins best actor and Dunkirk wins best picture / director, it'll be the first time in world history when two separate films with the exact same story take home main Oscars.

 

 

 

I really don't have any idea what I'm talking about.

post #99 of 331
Quote:
Originally Posted by MrSaxon View Post
 

Sorry, I meant in the same year.

 

I mean, technically, THE CROWN is a 2016 show and Darkest Hour is 2017. I know, I'm an insufferable pedant. 

post #100 of 331

If you've got a thing for being worn around peoples' necks then that's your business*, man.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

* If you think this is the worst joke I could make today, I should let you know that there's eleven and a half hours left by my watch.

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