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China and US To Come To Blows Over Taiwan?
post #2 of 10
11/26/03 at 2:35pm
- AphexHybrid
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I don't think this would be a good thing for the US to get into, especially with the dunderheads currently in command of the military. China has the largest army on the planet ( I believe the last count was 1,000,000 combat infantry alone, not counting support troops) the main strategic problem China has (if it were to invade the US for example) is a lack of a big navy with enough troop transports. Taiwan, on the other hand is right in China's backyard and the troop transport factor does not exist there.
I shudder to think how the already stretched thin US military with it's almost laughably incompetent officers could take on the newer, stronger (thanks to our missile/weapons technology, thanks, Democrats and Republicans!), and hungrier Chinese military. China took some ass-whippings during the 20th century,but they are running a new show over there now. US Corporations love having the cheap labor that China provides along with it's growing economy and potential customer base. Taiwan is small potatoes in comparison and I think the Corporations would rather see Taiwan sacrificed than see China become our enemy in an ugly costly conventional war. The tactics and strategies of Tsun Tzu are still alive and well over there.
I shudder to think how the already stretched thin US military with it's almost laughably incompetent officers could take on the newer, stronger (thanks to our missile/weapons technology, thanks, Democrats and Republicans!), and hungrier Chinese military. China took some ass-whippings during the 20th century,but they are running a new show over there now. US Corporations love having the cheap labor that China provides along with it's growing economy and potential customer base. Taiwan is small potatoes in comparison and I think the Corporations would rather see Taiwan sacrificed than see China become our enemy in an ugly costly conventional war. The tactics and strategies of Tsun Tzu are still alive and well over there.
post #3 of 10
11/26/03 at 2:41pm
- Jason P. Thompson
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I find it hilarious that even though we are the most technological advanced military on the planet that we aren't the largest of hungriest. Our politicans might be, but most of those soldiers are yearning for some action. Our Navy might be able to reduce their numbers, but I'm sure they will find ways of getting some hits of their own.
This would not be a good action for the U.S. to follow; as we already have troops scattered throughout the world.
This would not be a good action for the U.S. to follow; as we already have troops scattered throughout the world.
post #4 of 10
11/26/03 at 7:43pm
- Chavez
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This has been coming to a head for quite a while.
Sadly, with the war on Iraq, the US has lost ALL moral high ground as regards this issue - China can declare that Tiawan is a potential terrorist threat (as they do not recognize their independence anyway) to their national security, and perform a unilateral offensive to change that situation. Sound familiar?
Not good; not good at all.
I doubt that REAL war would erupt because of this, but all it takes is one bad move - say, if the US sends a carrier and a Chinese missile sinks it - to escalate an already-tense situation to disastrous proportions.
Quote:
| Wen indicated that Beijing would "pay any price" to safeguard national unity, and that the U.S. "must be crystal clear" in opposing President Chen's separatist agenda. A Beijing source familiar with China's Taiwan policy said given the gap between the military strength of China and that of the U.S. -- and China's dependence on the U.S. market -- a showdown over Taiwan was not yet imminent. Beijing has continued to resist the theory, first propounded during the 1999 Kosovo crisis, that globally shared principles such as the defense of democracy and humanitarianism override national boundaries. In London last week, Bush cited one version of this principle to justify American action in Iraq. While discussing the cross-Straits crisis, however, Tsinghua University judicial expert Li Zhaojie insisted that "according to international law, a country has the right to safeguard its territorial integrity according to international law" -- and that no other country can interfere with this prerogative. |
Quote:
| On the diplomatic level, Chinese overseas embassies have been instructed to brief their host governments in the near future on Beijing's determination to use whatever means to combat Taiwan separatism. In light of widespread reports that if re-elected next March, Chen may take advantage of the 2008 Summer Olympics in Beijing to declare formal independence, the Chinese diplomats are expected to stress that fear of an international boycott of the Games would not hold China back. As Beijing-based Taiwan expert Xu Bodong pointed out last week, Beijing "will not swallow the bitter fruit [of Taiwan independence] just because of the Olympics." Diplomatic sources said Beijing had a special message for Asian countries who are U.S. allies: that they should not provide bases for US aircraft and naval vessels that may be used to "interfere" with China's crusade against the "splittists." Yet potentially the most destabilizing action taken by Beijing concerns military means to prevent the U.S. from helping Taiwan in case the latter was attacked by the mainland. The People's Liberation Army has been flexing its muscles in extraordinary moves the past weeks. For example, a Ming-class submarine was dispatched to keep an eye on recent U.S.-Japan naval exercises in the Sea of Japan. There are also reports that the PLA has added two more missile brigades to bases close to the Taiwan Strait -- and that the missiles are capable of hitting American aircraft carriers that might be dispatched to the region. |
I doubt that REAL war would erupt because of this, but all it takes is one bad move - say, if the US sends a carrier and a Chinese missile sinks it - to escalate an already-tense situation to disastrous proportions.
- CTDeLude
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I'll say it again though....US and China will butt heads at one point or another.
China doesn't want to be 2nd or 3rd fiddle; they want it all.
China doesn't want to be 2nd or 3rd fiddle; they want it all.
post #6 of 10
11/26/03 at 9:26pm
- AphexHybrid
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I'm not entirely sure about that, CT. China could have the desire (much like the US) to merely be a superpower, the most dominant force on it's continent. I just don't see them trying to take over the entire planet. The Chinese are not dummies and they realize that they can only go so far with a conventional war and would not be able to march into the US, Europe, the UK, or Africa unhindered. I think that Taiwan, since it's originally part of China, will be allowed to be 'reinstated' into mainland China, but we wouldn't allow an invasion of Japan or South Korea. Totally different set of consequenses.
Unless there is a wildcard Napoleon-wannabe in the Communist regime, and even then he would have to be able to sway the rest of the ruling party into favoring world conquest. With their current financial successes rising, I just don't think it will happen that way.
Unless there is a wildcard Napoleon-wannabe in the Communist regime, and even then he would have to be able to sway the rest of the ruling party into favoring world conquest. With their current financial successes rising, I just don't think it will happen that way.
post #7 of 10
11/26/03 at 10:42pm
- Anger Management
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I can understand if US doesn't want to get involved in this very volatile situation, but if Taiwan requested assistance from US if China decided to use military force, and US declined, they'd look like a hypocrite for using rhetorics on promoting democracy, and then when faced with an opportunity to help a democratic country against a communist nation, they turned their back on them. I do hope it will be resolved diplomatically, in the interest of world community. But this article makes it sound as if it will come to blows any moment, and that concerns me greatly.
- CTDeLude
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Quote:
| Originally posted by AphexHybrid, ex-semuta addict I'm not entirely sure about that, CT. China could have the desire (much like the US) to merely be a superpower, the most dominant force on it's continent. I just don't see them trying to take over the entire planet. The Chinese are not dummies and they realize that they can only go so far with a conventional war and would not be able to march into the US, Europe, the UK, or Africa unhindered. I think that Taiwan, since it's originally part of China, will be allowed to be 'reinstated' into mainland China, but we wouldn't allow an invasion of Japan or South Korea. Totally different set of consequenses. Unless there is a wildcard Napoleon-wannabe in the Communist regime, and even then he would have to be able to sway the rest of the ruling party into favoring world conquest. With their current financial successes rising, I just don't think it will happen that way. |
post #9 of 10
11/27/03 at 12:22pm
- sorro
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Will the Japanese do this too? After all, Korea was theirs for quite some time. The Chinese can be very bellicose when it comes to foreign policy, but in the end I really think they're just rattling sabres. Juntao is pretty smart, and if you add the Beijing Olympics to the mix (which are very, VERY important to the Chinese), I think Taiwan will be safe for at least the next 4-5 years.
- CTDeLude
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I would more count on the Japanese coming to better terms with the South Koreas if the situation with N. Korea gets ugly.
In fact I am looking at the Japanese soon to have a very amicable situation with the US.
In fact I am looking at the Japanese soon to have a very amicable situation with the US.
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