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Oil & Civilisation

post #1 of 22
12/2/03 at 11:00pm
Thread Starter 
Hey! Looking for something else to worry about? Well, look no further.


Quote:
article from the Guardian:

Every generation has its taboo, and ours is this: that the resource upon which our lives have been built is running out. We don't talk about it because we cannot imagine it. This is a civilisation in denial.
(...)
The petroleum geologist Colin Campbell calculates that global extraction will peak before 2010. In August, the geophysicist Kenneth Deffeyes told New Scientist that he was "99% confident" that the date of maximum global production will be 2004. Even if the optimists are correct, we will be scraping the oil barrel within the lifetimes of most of those who are middle-aged today.
(...)
The supply of oil will decline, but global demand will not. Today we will burn 76m barrels; by 2020 we will be using 112m barrels a day, after which projected demand accelerates.
(...)
We seem, in other words, to be in trouble. Either we lay hands on every available source of fossil fuel, in which case we fry the planet and civilisation collapses, or we run out, and civilisation collapses.
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post #2 of 22
12/2/03 at 11:04pm
The faster the better. Just give me some advance notice so I can start stockpiling solar panels, metal barriers, automatic rifles, food, water, and gold ingots.

BWAHAHAAHHAAHAHAHAH.
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post #3 of 22
12/2/03 at 11:20pm
It's time to buy stocks from bicycle companies, it seems.
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post #4 of 22
12/3/03 at 2:14am
It'll be a great day when we are finally done with oil, but it seems like these numbers may be a little off. Current oil fields (Persian Gulf, North Sea, etc) may be done by then, but what about the Caspian reserves that haven't come on line yet? They're supposed to hold something on the order of 170 billion barrels. What about Siberian fields that Yukos and Lukoil are finding? What about the promising deep sea fields that ChevronTexaco has found in the Gulf of Mexico and elsewhere? What about the Canadian oil shale, which, if I remember correctly, held more oil than the Persian Gulf did?
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post #5 of 22
12/8/03 at 11:44pm
Thread Starter 
Well, I fear the day when the oil runs out. And I don't know about your alternate sources, but yet more studies are now predicting we don't have much time left.



Quote:
Article from Alternet:

(...)
Ironically, neither book startles as much as one line in the preface to the revised edition of Hubbert's Peak, which states: "The year 2000 very likely will stand as the year of greatest oil production."

Production fell in '01 and '02, and looks likely to fall again in '03. In other words, the zenith of the Oil Age may have already passed.
(...)
perhaps you would be willing to seize what's left before someone else does? If you knew about Hubbert's Peak a decade ago – as oilmen Bush and Cheney surely did – perhaps you would regard occupation of Afghanistan and Iraq as an ugly but necessary price to pay in order to secure sufficient time for the U.S. economy to convert?
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post #6 of 22
12/9/03 at 1:08am
Quote:
Originally posted by Overlord
The faster the better. Just give me some advance notice so I can start stockpiling solar panels, metal barriers, automatic rifles, food, water, and gold ingots.

BWAHAHAAHHAAHAHAHAH.
Actually, the investment in amorphous crystal solar panels is a solid -albeit small- growth investment at present.

And I'm referring to the industry, not the survivalist type as you've characterized in some sort of parody.
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post #7 of 22
12/9/03 at 11:33am
From that Alternet article:

declines steeply once the easy-to-get oil is gone

So a lot of the harder to get oil is still sitting around, which makes sense. It costs more to get/process things like the Canadian oil shale, some oil that's locked away here in Utah, also in rock form, as well as parts of these old oil patches. That doesn't mean that we won't use them, just that right now market prices aren't high enough to justify it. Once the quick return reserves are depleted, oil prices will rise, and it will be worth it to extract oil from these places where it would have cost more than it was worth. With the increase in oil prices, suddenly it would be worth it, and we'd have oil again, albeit a far more expensive oil.
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post #8 of 22
12/9/03 at 3:16pm
I think it's always wise to treat reports such as the above with a general degree of skepticism.

I remember being told in 1979 that oil supplies, 'absolutely ... positively will be exhausted by the end of the century!'

Yup – I’m still filling up the ol’ gas guzzler.

The truth is that we have absolutely no idea about how much oil reserves the planet has left. Certain estimates suggest that we will be on our knees by 2050, on the other hand – recent studies indicate that there may well be massive stocks of oil just waiting to be pumped out of the earth in eastern Russia and Antarctica. These deposits could conceivably supply us well into the twenty-second century.

The only thing that we can truly be sure of is that natural oil, will eventually run out. Estimates relating to when this calamitous event might occur must be regarded as purely speculative at this moment.
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post #9 of 22
12/9/03 at 3:21pm
Agent Orange, probably true. But even so, you can make anything work if you throw enough money at it. The scientists and engineers of the world could no doubt develop other types of technologies that run on synthetic or some other fuels if they were well-funded, but the stranglehold of the oil and energy companies desperate to maintain dominance will never allow that to happen.
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post #10 of 22
12/9/03 at 3:35pm
Quote:
Originally posted by yt
Agent Orange, probably true. But even so, you can make anything work if you throw enough money at it. The scientists and engineers of the world could no doubt develop other types of technologies that run on synthetic or some other fuels if they were well-funded, but the stranglehold of the oil and energy companies desperate to maintain dominance will never allow that to happen.
I think there's a certain element of truth to that - yes.

Although for years innumerable there have been rumours drifting through the ether about 'earth-shattering' scientific discoveries in the field of energy production that have been bought-out and subsequently 'buried' by apprehensive oil-companies.

I have no idea as to the validity of any of these rumours, but I think it is safe to say that the considerable financial and political muscle available to the oil companies might well be able to influence or even subdue research in this field.
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post #11 of 22
12/9/03 at 3:43pm
This blog post from Denbeste is a good discussion on the problem with some alternative (if not most) energy sources;

http://denbeste.nu/cd_log_entries/20...ysources.shtml

This one focuses on more obscure ones, but the important problem addressed there is that the solutions were are imagining today just don't scale to the meet the needs we have.
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post #12 of 22
12/9/03 at 3:53pm
It is worth remembering, of course, that we could decimate energy consumption figures in a very short space of time if people simply exercised a touch of common sense and 'did their bit' for the environment by: purchasing smaller cars with more efficient engines (or not purchasing cars at all!), refraining from leaving every light on in the house at night, using more efficient refrigerators, dishwashers, washing machines and so forth.

But then, some argue that it would be easier to design and build a dilithium-crystal powered reactor than it would be to get people to change their wasteful habits…
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post #13 of 22
12/9/03 at 5:17pm
Thread Starter 
Quote:
Originally posted by sorro
Once the quick return reserves are depleted, oil prices will rise, and it will be worth it to extract oil from these places where it would have cost more than it was worth. With the increase in oil prices, suddenly it would be worth it, and we'd have oil again, albeit a far more expensive oil.
And that's an important point, especially to more far-flung countries. How quickly will the price of oil rise, especially since once it begins to do so, everyone in the world will know that it ain't ever coming back down again? And how quickly will that price get to a level where people in general can no longer afford to fill up their tanks every two weeks? And what happens then? That's what scares me.
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post #14 of 22
12/9/03 at 5:57pm
Then everybody will end up moving to cheaper forms of transportation - busses, walking, bikes, motorcycles, or hybrid/hydrogen/power of the future vehicles. The only people who could afford to keep SUVs in their current state would be the very rich. Of course, by that point in time (whenever it ends up actually being) there will be alternatives out there, even if it means paying the people in Kansas for more ethanol.
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post #15 of 22
12/9/03 at 6:06pm
Thread Starter 
The problem is the infrastructure of how (most) cities work. You can't just take everyone who drives to work and instead get them onto the bus. Because firstly we'd need to quadruple the size of the bus industry to even start coping with the new demands, and more importantly, busses run on fuel too, so tickets scale steeply upwards in costs as well. Same with trains. Everyone could end up on bicycles, which is really going to restrict travelling distances.
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post #16 of 22
12/9/03 at 6:10pm
It's kind of hard to do grocery shopping for a family, with a bicycle. I used to do this shopping when I lived by myself in college, and it sucked back then.

And let's not talk about transporting a family around on a motorcycle.
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post #17 of 22
12/9/03 at 8:00pm
Quote:
Originally posted by Van Jones
The problem is the infrastructure of how (most) cities work. You can't just take everyone who drives to work and instead get them onto the bus. Because firstly we'd need to quadruple the size of the bus industry to even start coping with the new demands, and more importantly, busses run on fuel too, so tickets scale steeply upwards in costs as well. Same with trains. Everyone could end up on bicycles, which is really going to restrict travelling distances.
It'll be a gradual shift. We won't just wake up one day, find gas at $10/gallon and be SOL. Instead gradually prices will rise as proven reserves run out and it costs more to extract oil from alternate sources. Over this span of time, people will move from cars that use a lot of gas to more fuel efficient cars, or they will choose alternate means.
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post #18 of 22
12/9/03 at 8:11pm
You can always move to Japan and get gas at $4 a gallon though....
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post #19 of 22
12/9/03 at 8:18pm
Market trends could lead the way. There is a demand for non-gas-suck SUVs but auto manufacturers have dragged their feet making them available in America. I think the ideal situation would be a conversion process whereby standard engines could be converted to hybrid (or an even better technology should it be introduced), but that would have to happen on the grass-roots level since the auto industry would never touch it. Beyond the technological demands, I think the transformation to a non-oil-dependent society could be accomplished relatively quickly with the right minds getting behind it.
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post #20 of 22
12/9/03 at 8:23pm
Quote:
Originally posted by yt
I think the ideal situation would be a conversion process whereby standard engines could be converted to hybrid (or an even better technology should it be introduced), but that would have to happen on the grass-roots level since the auto industry would never touch it.
They would never touch, nor will it happen because it's just not a feasable idea.

Hybrid cars will become more affordable, and since you save money on gas, they are a win win situation. Let's hope they start selling like hotcakes soon.
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post #21 of 22
12/9/03 at 8:47pm
The auto industry keeps pushing back their introduction but the demand is there. Automakers are trying to fend off this emerging trend.

The reason I posed the unfeasible idea of conversion is that as "consumers" buy new cars, their last year's model goes on the resale market. This year's fleet of chevy expeditions will be resold and so on. Those cars will still be on the road for many years to come because a huge segment of the population won't be able to afford to buy new cars.
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post #22 of 22
12/9/03 at 9:30pm
Thread Starter 
Quote:
Originally posted by sorro
It'll be a gradual shift. We won't just wake up one day, find gas at $10/gallon and be SOL. Instead gradually prices will rise as proven reserves run out and it costs more to extract oil from alternate sources. Over this span of time, people will move from cars that use a lot of gas to more fuel efficient cars, or they will choose alternate means.
If there was a level amount of supply I'd agree with you. But there is not, and the faster that the smaller producers run out, the more demand will go onto the big suppliers. And the more that happens, the faster and faster they will run out. Add to that the fact we are progressively using more and more oil each year, and there is a possibility there could be a big crunch - especially if the stock market panics at the first jump.


Interesting that someone brings up Japan, here's an interesting article about what they've been doing, and are doing, to address this coming crisis.

Quote:
American car manufacturers are scrambling to catch up with the Japanese. They've discovered they are years, not months behind. In late 2002 Ford announced it would be introducing a hybrid in the fall of 2003. In late 2003 Ford announced it was postponing introduction until late 2004. GM declared it would introduce a hybrid pickup in 2004. In late 2003 it announced it was delaying introduction of a full hybrid until 2007. Dodge had said it would introduce a hybrid Ram Contractor in 2005. In late 2003 Daimler/Chrysler canceled its plans to build a hybrid SUV.
(...)
Next fall Toyota will introduce its first hybrid SUV. It will get about 40 miles per gallon, maybe twice that of a comparably sized SUV. Meanwhile the American car companies successfully convinced Congress not to raise the fuel efficiency standard for SUVs by two miles per gallon.
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