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Has Kerry taken a dive?

post #1 of 24
Thread Starter 
Quote:
Columbus, Ohio---Hour after hour the testimonies are the same: angry Ohioans telling of vicious Republican manipulation and de facto intimidation that disenfranchised tens of thousands and probably cost the Democrats the election.
[...]

The principle overt method of vote suppression was to short-change inner city precincts of sufficient voting machines to allow a timely balloting. In precinct after precinct, virtually all of them predominantly black, poor, young and Democratic, the lines stretched for two, five, eight, even eleven hours. The elderly and infirm were forced to stand in the rain while city officials threatened to tow their cars. No chairs or shelter were provided. Crucial signage was mysteriously missing. Thousands came to vote, saw the long lines and left.

How many thousands? Enough to turn the election? Almost definitely.

None of this was accidental. This was a well-planned GOP attack on the right to vote, and on Democratic candidacies. Republican Secretary of State Kenneth Blackwell was also co-chair of the Ohio campaign for Bush. A right-wing Republican was in charge of the Franklin County Board of Elections.

They all said the election went "smoothly." By their standards they were right. At least 68 voting machines sat in a warehouse while precinct managers called desperately for help. Republican precinct judges and challengers harassed would-be voters. The names of long-time activists mysteriously disappeared from registration lists. The arsenal of dirty tricks was virtually endless.
[...]

But one thing also stood out---the complete lack of Democratic support for these hearings or for the larger vote count movement. Nationally, it all stands in the shadow of the complete disappearance of John Kerry, on whose nominal behalf this was done.

A successful grassroots effort involving the Green and Libertarian Parties, among others, has raised---in just four days---some $150,000 to force a recount of the Ohio vote. (Ralph Nader has forced a similar recount in New Hampshire). But where were the countless millions raised by the Democratic Party and Kerry campaign by trusting American citizens who expected them to fight for democracy?

Right up to election day Kerry repeated his solemn vow to, in light of what happened in Florida 2000, guarantee everyone's right to vote. But now that another highly dubious election has occurred, where the hell is he?

Rumors are circulating that he is biding his time, waiting for the right time to jump in. Or that the Democrats themselves have something to hide. Or that there's a magic bullet just waiting to be fired.

Similar rumors spread about Al Gore four years ago. We're still waiting for that fateful shot.

from freepress.org


Also, here's a link to some programming analysis of how hackers may have screwed up in their attempt to skew the vote to Bush. You know, for kicks.
post #2 of 24
Yet again...beginning to feel physically ill, thank you.
post #3 of 24
Aside from the author’s highly questionable language “avalanche of evidence”, “an atrocity”, “vicious manipulation” (something of a contradiction in my mind) this story is an odd piece of deductive reasoning.

The assertion is that the “GOP”, by withholding at “least 68 machines”, created such long queues that many poor and disadvantaged people chose not to bother voting. This “probably” cost the Democrats the election.

Firstly I find it rather strange that the author, at no point, chooses to attribute any of the problems to the fact that the 2004 election featured the highest turnout since 1968: 60 percent of eligible voters, which equates to 120 million Americans. The facts that there were big queues and a high turnout are entirely unconnected in Wasserman's mind.

Secondly, no mention is made of who withheld the machines and for what stated reason. Presumably it’s self-evident that administrative error, machine failure or transportation cock-up didn’t play any role in this issue. It’s a conspiracy, put together by persons that shall (somewhat conveniently) remain anonymous.

Thirdly, Wasserman takes it for granted that the people who didn’t vote all planned to stand behind Kerry. Even if, as he claims, “tens of thousands” of people were denied their right, with a 137,000 (approx.) deficit and a 51/49% vote split it would take a freak departure from the mean for the Democrats to secure the state. With the best will in the world I’m struggling to see how the Democrats were “probably” robbed of the election.

Fourthly, since when did an ad hoc sample of 700 people provide “abundantly clear” evidence of electoral fraud?

Finally – why haven’t the Democrats chosen to back such claims? I think the author has unwittingly answered his own question.

Come on people, purveyors of pure bunkum like the writer of the linked article are precisely the kind malign influence that is hurting American politics today. Both Democrats and Republicans together, regardless of party loyalties, should be able to see through this speculative nonsense.
post #4 of 24
Thread Starter 
Quote:
Originally Posted by AgentOrange
Firstly I find it rather strange that the author, at no point, chooses to attribute any of the problems to the fact that the 2004 election featured the highest turnout since 1968
All the more reason for those 68-odd voting machines to be taken out of the warehouse and used. Obviously more people voting is going to cause delays, but this merely makes the withholding of these machines all the more unusual. Everyone knew beforehand this was going to be a big-turnout election, what reason is there for not even taking these extra machines out of the warehouse? Didn't want to hurt the resale value?



Quote:
Originally Posted by AgentOrange
Secondly, no mention is made of who withheld the machines and for what stated reason.
From the article, the secretary of the state is Republican, and "A right-wing Republican was in charge of the Franklin County Board of Elections." Are you suggesting it was due to the janitor putting his back out? Maybe there is no official reason why these machines were left in a warehouse, but we know those in positions of authority for the state election said things went 'smoothly'.


Quote:
Originally Posted by AgentOrange
Thirdly, Wasserman takes it for granted that the people who didn’t vote all planned to stand behind Kerry.
It's been shown in the past that the more people vote, the more the vote goes to the democrats. Furthermore, most of the precincts referred in this article were predominantly democratic.


Quote:
Originally Posted by AgentOrange
Fourthly, since when did an ad hoc sample of 700 people provide “abundantly clear” evidence of electoral fraud?
Sorry? 700 people have gone to the effort to give evidence of voter intimidation and manipulation and you're dismissing it because it's only 700 people?



Quote:
Originally Posted by AgentOrange
Finally – why haven’t the Democrats chosen to back such claims?
Hence the ultimate point of this thread. Did Kerry take a dive, throw the election either due to a) being too tired to fight any longer, b) not wanting prolong the wait (and the hostility) any longer, c) didn't really want to be president that badly, or d) was paid off or intimidated out of contesting the vote counts in the battleground states.



Quote:
Originally Posted by AgentOrange
Both Democrats and Republicans together, regardless of party loyalties, should be able to see through this speculative nonsense.
There are none so blind as those who will not see.
post #5 of 24
Quote:
Originally Posted by Van Jones
All the more reason for those 68-odd voting machines to be taken out of the warehouse and used. Obviously more people voting is going to cause delays, but this merely makes the withholding of these machines all the more unusual. Everyone knew beforehand this was going to be a big-turnout election, what reason is there for not even taking these extra machines out of the warehouse? Didn't want to hurt the resale value?
And these machines were withheld by the Republicans. You or the author have EVIDENCE to back this claim up?

Quote:
From the article, the secretary of the state is Republican, and "A right-wing Republican was in charge of the Franklin County Board of Elections." Are you suggesting it was due to the janitor putting his back out? Maybe there is no official reason why these machines were left in a warehouse, but we know those in positions of authority for the state election said things went 'smoothly'.
I'm not suggesting, I am STATING that at no point does the author substantiate the claim that there was a conspiracy. A right-wing Republican was in charge of the election – so what? Does the fact that he’s a Republican mean that he, and he alone, is automatically guilty of conducting a highly elaborate scam to rig the election? If he didn’t work alone presumably this mysterious cabal of anonymous people managed to do their dirty deed without being witnessed by a single person. Astonishing! As for the statement that things went “smoothly” – well, no election official is likely to state that an election was a total cock-up is he?

Quote:
It's been shown in the past that the more people vote, the more the vote goes to the democrats. Furthermore, most of the precincts referred in this article were predominantly democratic.
Hang on - I thought this election had the highest voter turnout in years? Doesn’t the fact that Bush won kind of stick a torpedo through the bow of your theory?

Quote:
Sorry? 700 people have gone to the effort to give evidence of voter intimidation and manipulation and you're dismissing it because it's only 700 people?
I’m dismissing it because it was an “ad hoc” investigation. Do you have any understanding of the terms “research methods”, “participatory observation”, “validity” and “ethics”?

Quote:
Hence the ultimate point of this thread. Did Kerry take a dive, throw the election either due to a) being too tired to fight any longer, b) not wanting prolong the wait (and the hostility) any longer, c) didn't really want to be president that badly, or d) was paid off or intimidated out of contesting the vote counts in the battleground states.
You’re not expecting me to take this question seriously are you?

Quote:
There are none so blind as those who will not see.
And there’s one born every day.
post #6 of 24
Thread Starter 
Quote:
Originally Posted by AgentOrange
And these machines were withheld by the Republicans. You or the author have EVIDENCE to back this claim up?
No, not at all. We know who was in charge of the state elections, and we know that many machines were not made available for voting, despite being needed. I personally have not yet found a concrete connection between the two points. But as time goes on I expect more people will ask questions of those who were in charge, to find out who made the decision to not use these extra machines. Looking at it from another perspective, what other reason could there be, other than gross incompetence or malfeasance?


Quote:
Originally Posted by AgentOrange
I am STATING that at no point does the author substantiate the claim that there was a conspiracy. A right-wing Republican was in charge of the election – so what? Does the fact that he’s a Republican mean that he, and he alone, is automatically guilty of conducting a highly elaborate scam to rig the election?
Fair enough, the point here isn't that concrete proof exists that shows a conspiracy occured, my point is to (continue to) draw attention to suspicious bits and peices of information that is slowing dripping out of the battleground states in the aftermath of this surprising election result. Ultimately, there is stuff here that does not add up, and I would like an explanation as to what was going on.


Quote:
Originally Posted by AgentOrange
Hang on - I thought this election had the highest voter turnout in years? Doesn’t the fact that Bush won kind of stick a torpedo through the bow of your theory?
Yup, and that's the thing. To continue the analogy - the exit polls that pointed to Kerry, and statistical analysis that shows some very strange trends, have boarded up the damaged section, keeping the ship afloat so far.


Quote:
Originally Posted by AgentOrange
Do you have any understanding of the terms “research methods”, “participatory observation”, “validity” and “ethics”?
Wait, is testimony suddenly irrelevant now? Here, check out this article containing actual quotes from actual people, who talk about some of the suspicious and troubling things happening in Ohio on election day.

That article also contains a quote from the Secretary of State Kenneth Blackwell who, in a November 17 Washington Post op-ed stated “Every eligible voter who wanted to vote had the opportunity to vote." I say that's a lie, but more importantly, voters in Ohio say that that is a lie, based on their eyewitness accounts of people who didn't want to (or couldn't) stand in hour-long queues, and inadequate numbers of machines.


Quote:
Originally Posted by AgentOrange
You’re not expecting me to take this question seriously are you?
You're in this thread, aren't you? Did you know Kerry ended his campaign with $15 million still in his campaign fund, an amount democrats are now starting to pressure him over? Why didn't he use it in Ohio and Florida? Will he keep it or some of it for himself? Is that why he didn't spend it on advertising? Can running for President (and losing) be a profitable exercise?
post #7 of 24
post #8 of 24
Quote:
Originally Posted by Van Jones
No, not at all. We know who was in charge of the state elections, and we know that many machines were not made available for voting, despite being needed. I personally have not yet found a concrete connection between the two points. But as time goes on I expect more people will ask questions of those who were in charge, to find out who made the decision to not use these extra machines. Looking at it from another perspective, what other reason could there be, other than gross incompetence or malfeasance?
Let me know when you dig up the evidence. I’ll be around.

Quote:
Fair enough, the point here isn't that concrete proof exists that shows a conspiracy occured, my point is to (continue to) draw attention to suspicious bits and peices of information that is slowing dripping out of the battleground states in the aftermath of this surprising election result. Ultimately, there is stuff here that does not add up, and I would like an explanation as to what was going on.
It’s a pity the author of this tripe didn’t wait for an explanation before printing his propagandist rubbish eh?

Quote:
Yup, and that's the thing. To continue the analogy - the exit polls that pointed to Kerry, and statistical analysis that shows some very strange trends, have boarded up the damaged section, keeping the ship afloat so far.
You are aware of the dubious validity of exit polls aren’t you? Let me introduce you to the Hawthorne Effect.

Quote:
Wait, is testimony suddenly irrelevant now? Here, check out this article containing actual quotes from actual people, who talk about some of the suspicious and troubling things happening in Ohio on election day.
The article states that the election was “flawed”. Since when did “flawed” equate to election rigging?

Quote:
That article also contains a quote from the Secretary of State Kenneth Blackwell who, in a November 17 Washington Post op-ed stated “Every eligible voter who wanted to vote had the opportunity to vote." I say that's a lie, but more importantly, voters in Ohio say that that is a lie, based on their eyewitness accounts of people who didn't want to (or couldn't) stand in hour-long queues, and inadequate numbers of machines.
Sphericals! I’ve passed up the chance to vote in UK elections because the queues were too large. Are you telling me I was manipulated into not voting by shadowy, nefarious politicians who calculated on my lack of patience?

I stupidly turned up too late to a polling station that had been open ALL DAY. Isn’t it possible that these people made the same mistake?

Quote:
You're in this thread, aren't you? Did you know Kerry ended his campaign with $15 million still in his campaign fund, an amount democrats are now starting to pressure him over? Why didn't he use it in Ohio and Florida? Will he keep it or some of it for himself? Is that why he didn't spend it on advertising? Can running for President (and losing) be a profitable exercise?
So you expected Kerry to have managed his finances so perfectly that he would account for his entire budget on Election Day?
post #9 of 24
Thread Starter 
Quote:
Originally Posted by AgentOrange
It’s a pity the author of this tripe didn’t wait for an explanation before printing his propagandist rubbish eh?
Well, since so far no main news television show seems to be interested in looking into all this, I'd say the author would probably have to wait a long-ass time if he were to wait for an explanation before printing anything.


Quote:
Originally Posted by AgentOrange
You are aware of the dubious validity of exit polls aren’t you? Let me introduce you to the Hawthorne Effect.
Exit polls are not as dubious as you would imply, and since there seems to be a uniform 'slide' to Bush when comparing exit polls to actual polls, (rather than a more random variance), it seems somewhat fishy.

I am aware of the Hawthorne effect. What I don't see is how the Hawthorne effect relates to an exit poll. Please elaborate.



Quote:
Originally Posted by AgentOrange
The article states that the election was “flawed”. Since when did “flawed” equate to election rigging?
Obviously it has to do with the nature of the flaw, who allowed it, and how that flaw affected the elligible voters.



Quote:
Originally Posted by AgentOrange
I stupidly turned up too late to a polling station that had been open ALL DAY. Isn’t it possible that these people made the same mistake?
Is it possible some of them turned up too late? Sure. Is it likely the majority of them turned up too late? No, it is not. Not when everyone knew how important this election was - again proven by the record numbers of people voting.

Check this out:

Erin Deignan, Columbus:
“I was an official poll worker judge in precinct Columbus 25 F, at the East Linden School. We had between 1100 and 1200 people on the voter registry there. We had three voting machines. We did the math. I am sure lots of other people did too. With the five-minute limit, 13 hours the polls were open, three machines, that is 468 voters, that is less than half of the people we had on the registry."


Quote:
Originally Posted by AgentOrange
So you expected Kerry to have managed his finances so perfectly that he would account for his entire budget on Election Day?
What I expected was for Kerry to use all the funds that had been donated to him for the purpose of winning the election. Apparently he did not, by quite a large margin. I find that suspicious, too.
post #10 of 24
I may have lost the point of the article in all the BS Wasserman threw around, but is it saying that if those 68 machines were there, it would have made the 160000 vote deficit into a Kerry win? That's about as likely as all those "9/11 was a Mossad plot" theories.
post #11 of 24
The election systems have to be investigated, regardless of whether there's a chance of the problems sorting into a win for Kerry or not.

If George Soros bought all the privately owned election equipment corporations, would you insist on accountability in the next election?
post #12 of 24

w00t!

(November 19, 2004 -- 12:11 PM EDT)
"Regardless of the outcome of this election, once all the votes are counted -- and they will be counted -- we will continue to challenge this administration. This is not a time for Democrats to retreat and accommodate extremists on critical principles -- it is a time to stand firm.

I will fight for a national standard for federal elections that has both transparency and accountability in our voting system. It's unacceptable in the United States that people still don't have full confidence in the integrity of the voting process.

I ask you to join me in this cause."

That's a passage from a message Sen. John Kerry will be sending out to supporters later this afternoon.


-- Josh Marshall
Copyright 2004 Joshua Micah Marshall
This document is available online at talkingpointsmemo.
post #13 of 24
Quote:
Originally Posted by yt
The election systems have to be investigated, regardless of whether there's a chance of the problems sorting into a win for Kerry or not.

If George Soros bought all the privately owned election equipment corporations, would you insist on accountability in the next election?
Soros is a different story than Diebold. His stated aim was to prevent Bush winning by all means necessary, and I don't recall the Diebold CEO saying that, whoever he is. I wouldn't have a beef if all election stuff was run off of Oracle who's CEO, Larry Ellison, IIRC was a Kerry supporter.

Besides, the quoted material had nothing to do with Diebold throwing the election and everything to do with "they hid 68 voting booths."
post #14 of 24
Quote:
Originally Posted by sorro
Soros is a different story than Diebold. His stated aim was to prevent Bush winning by all means necessary, and I don't recall the Diebold CEO saying that, whoever he is.
"[I am] committed to helping Ohio to deliver its electoral votes to the president next year" - Walden O'Dell, Diebold's chief executive, Aug. 14, 2003
post #15 of 24
Quote:
Originally Posted by Van Jones
Well, since so far no main news television show seems to be interested in looking into all this, I'd say the author would probably have to wait a long-ass time if he were to wait for an explanation before printing anything.
I get it. In light of no evidence: write anything and point the finger at everybody.

Very professional!

Quote:
I am aware of the Hawthorne effect. What I don't see is how the Hawthorne effect relates to an exit poll. Please elaborate.
Simple really, when there is fierce polarization in the run up to an election (as was certainly the case in this election) some people are more likely to behave out of character when faced with an exit poll. The temptation (because of perceived peer pressure or pure panic caused by someone "official looking" walking up to you and asking questions) is to lie or not provide any information at all.

In elections where the outcome isn’t close such factors can be accounted for. But in the case of Ohio where the result was always likely to be tight – no exit poll could have been relied on. This is why most of the news presenters churned on and on with “Of course, this is only an exit poll and therefore it shouldn’t be regarded as accurate”.

Quote:
Is it possible some of them turned up too late? Sure. Is it likely the majority of them turned up too late? No, it is not. Not when everyone knew how important this election was - again proven by the record numbers of people voting.

Check this out:

Erin Deignan, Columbus:
“I was an official poll worker judge in precinct Columbus 25 F, at the East Linden School. We had between 1100 and 1200 people on the voter registry there. We had three voting machines. We did the math. I am sure lots of other people did too. With the five-minute limit, 13 hours the polls were open, three machines, that is 468 voters, that is less than half of the people we had on the registry."
I’ve no doubt that this small precinct experienced problems due to insufficient machines (is it reasonable to expect that every precinct in America won’t experience some problems?) but how does this connect with the central assertion that the Republicans conspired to rig the elections?

Where is the evidence that a member or members of the Republican Party authorised the withholding of this machine?
Quote:
What I expected was for Kerry to use all the funds that had been donated to him for the purpose of winning the election. Apparently he did not, by quite a large margin. I find that suspicious, too.
Firstly, the figure you quoted is incorrect. According to the article you provided, the $16 million is (after legal deductions) somewhere in the region of $11 million.

An $11 million surplus could be explained in any number of ways. Poor planning, a bad accountant (there’s no shortage of such in the world today), the cancellation of event X, even plain old fraud!

I’m sorry but there’s no chain of evidence linking the "defrauders" to the "defrauded". And without such this article can’t be taken seriously.
post #16 of 24
Ok, just to be sure I checked and like the first 20 links on google (pretty much all negative) state O'Dell said that in a personal letter inviting people to a Republican fund raiser at his home.
He never stated Diebold is going to do all it can for Bush, just himself personally, i.e. raise money for the RNC.
Any conspiracy would be almost impossible to keep concealed as several programmers and technicians would likely have to be involved.
Sure, Diebold should be audited and security measures should be in place but you are spinning this to make biased claims and ignoring reality.
post #17 of 24
The only claim being made here is that the guy said what he said.

Explain why a biased claim is a bad thing if the claim is true.
post #18 of 24
Diebold is a separate entity and Diebold did not issue a press release saying we are going to make Bush win.
People in power campaign and try to raise money for both sides.
When Ted Turner raised money for the democrats were you assuming that CNN was reporting fictious stories to benefit the Democrats?

There should be security checks in place for all steps.
Diebold is the manufacture and they need to be audited, however to assume that the CEO making a common fundraising statement is trying to rig the election, screams of conspiracy theory and tin hats.

Unless your intentionally trying to mislead those unwilling to do their own research?
post #19 of 24
No one said he tried to rig the election. Personally I think Diebold's in the clear as far as intentional rigging goes for the same reason you do: a lot of engineers and programmers would have to be in on the scheme and keep quiet about it. Faulty machinery is another matter.

However, no one here has said that the Diebold CEO tried to rig the election. What was said is as follows:


Quote:
Originally Posted by sorro
Soros is a different story than Diebold. His stated aim was to prevent Bush winning by all means necessary, and I don't recall the Diebold CEO saying that, whoever he is.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Micah Robinson
"[I am] committed to helping Ohio to deliver its electoral votes to the president next year" - Walden O'Dell, Diebold's chief executive, Aug. 14, 2003
And that's it. Walden, the CEO of Diebold, said he's committed to delivering Ohio's electoral votes to the president.

Quote:
Diebold is the manufacture and they need to be audited, however to assume that the CEO making a common fundraising statement is trying to rig the election, screams of conspiracy theory and tin hats.
I suppose so. But since no one's made that claim here it doesn't matter. You're reading things that haven't been written.

Quote:
Unless your intentionally trying to mislead those unwilling to do their own research?

Yeah, right
post #20 of 24
And you still haven't explained why a biased claim is a bad thing if the claim is true. I'm really getting sick as seeing "you're biased!" trotted out as if that settles a matter.
post #21 of 24
I read too much into the statements above.
Sorry, the biased comment was a direct result of my inference which you are refuting.

If the facts back up statements they are not biased they are factual conclusions.

I have seen nothing to indicate Diebold has done anything improper.
There for to link O'Dell said this so Diebold caused the election results is biased (backing the case with only desire) and unproven.

So basically I am saying if the statistics (which I am not a statistician, but know statistics can be manipulated quite easily) bear further investigation, so be it. And if something turns up follow it up the chain, however what O'Dell said in his private life has no real bearing on the case as yet.
post #22 of 24
Has Kerry taken a dive?

...why yes...yes he has
post #23 of 24
Thread Starter 
Quote:
Originally Posted by AgentOrange
Simple really, when there is fierce polarization in the run up to an election (as was certainly the case in this election) some people are more likely to behave out of character when faced with an exit poll. The temptation (because of perceived peer pressure or pure panic caused by someone "official looking" walking up to you and asking questions) is to lie or not provide any information at all.
That, frankly, is ridiculous. Neither the Bush supporters nor the Kerry supoorters ever struck me as being the type who would just lie to an exit poller - it makes no sense at all. People who voted for Bush are proud of that fact. People who voted for Kerry are proud of that fact. The country is divided right down the middle, there are no shrinking violets who would 'give in' (to who?) and lie to an exit poller.


Quote:
Originally Posted by AgentOrange
in the case of Ohio where the result was always likely to be tight – no exit poll could have been relied on.
What are you talking about? What difference does the 'tightness' of the race make to the accuracy of the exit poll?




Quote:
Originally Posted by AgentOrange
I’ve no doubt that this small precinct experienced problems due to insufficient machines (is it reasonable to expect that every precinct in America won’t experience some problems?) but how does this connect with the central assertion that the Republicans conspired to rig the elections?

Where is the evidence that a member or members of the Republican Party authorised the withholding of this machine?
Would like a signed confession? Or perhaps just some infra-red camera footage? As I've said before, there is a slow steady drip over the last days and weeks, of various stories from various people who are talking about some pretty troubling things in rgards to this election. I'm not about to post every one of them on Chud, but this one caught my eye.



Quote:
Originally Posted by AgentOrange
An $11 million surplus could be explained in any number of ways. Poor planning, a bad accountant (there’s no shortage of such in the world today), the cancellation of event X, even plain old fraud!
I don't care. I just simply do not care. Kerry had X amount of dollars that was given to him from people all over the country, to spend in order to try and win the presidency. Given how close he came to that goal, the revelation that he still has millions in his account is surprising and disappointing, and perhaps even a little suspicious. Did he take a dive? Who knows?
post #24 of 24
Quote:
Originally Posted by Micah Robinson
"[I am] committed to helping Ohio to deliver its electoral votes to the president next year" - Walden O'Dell, Diebold's chief executive, Aug. 14, 2003
I stand corrected.
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