SITH Box Office Predictions

Anything other than the #1 film of the year is a disappointment for a STAR WARS film. Let's not rationalize that away. That's the league these films are in.

I'll have to ask chans.

uhh.......320

$250 million. Sequel fatigue, a rather strong June line-up, and (yes, believe it or not) the PG-13 rating will shrink its earning potential a bit.

If it can come close to meeting fanboy expectations AND be good enough to bring in casual fans for repeat viewings, I say $400 million plus.

Even if the movie sucks donkey nuts, I think the Vader factor will make this the highest grossing of all the prequels.

More than Clones, less than Phantom Menace.

How much less depends on how good the movie turns out to be. 16 years of anticipation is kind of a hard card to beat, though.

The curiosity factor is huge. Combined with HEY! It's finally over! Let's see it! I don't think 400 is out of the question.

I'd say about $350

I think it will make something short of 300. The script is horrible - the opening weekend will be huge, but what event film isn't? I think the majority of the critical community will shiv the film, and most people will probably go "eh... this is way too Star Trek for me." I'm guessing a Matrix Reloaded style BO.

I say roughly $350 million. It'll make more than Clones simply for the fact that this is the one that most people have been aching for since the prequels. And it's got Vader. Never underestimate the visual appeal of seeing Vader on the big screen.

I don't think it will make less than CLONES.

But it won't come close to MENACE.

330

Carl, you said ROTS is better than TPM & AOTC combined. Have you seen ROTS?? If you have, well, spill the beans without actually SPILLING THE BEANS!!

Please?

J.M. Prater

Blind prediction (without having read any above posts and no expertise whatsoever): $300 million, just shy of AOTC's 320. Will be happy to be wrong if it does better.

50,000. No less.

I figure the reason Primere has $400 million is so they can have stories about how it's performing lower then expected and have reasons to trash it. That said, my guess would be in the low to mid $300 million range.

I was thinking about this earlier this week and I'd honestly be surprised if it broke $250. But then again, I'd honestly be surprised if it was good, so that's where my expectations are.

My $300M guess is based on:
a) overall higher anticipation for this film. Fans overall seem more excited, and more people I know are asking me about this one so I think it's true and obvious there is more curiosity among the public.

b) I'm guessing it won't beat AOTC because of a faster drop off. I don't know why. Maybe because AOTC's big competition, Spider-Man, was released before AOTC, but still beat it, whereas ROTS' big competition, Batman Begins, comes out after it and will quickly push it to the back of the theaters (if it's not already there).

380 mil - and if I'm right - what do I win?

Where did he say that?

I think TPM and AotC beat a lot of the mainstream interest out of this franchise. If the script is as I've read then it'll be a die-hard's film after week one.

There is no anticipation for this film in non-geek circles. WAR OF THE WORLDS is the summer movie for everybody else.

Where did he say that?

Third line, second paragraph.

I think you're probably right about this. Batman Begins is getting more attention than I expected though, too. People seem pretty hyped for that and WOTW, but in my experience, outside of the internet and obvious geek circles, there is next to no buzz and only a passing awareness of this movie.

Edited to add my estimate of $250 million. $320 if it ends up being any good, which I am not holding out hope for.

Oh yeah I forgot about WOTW. That will also hurt ROTS. But I do think there is anticipation among non-geeks for ROTS. The trailer helped.

it's funny because ep. III has a lot of things going for it (the last SW movie, the one people have been waiting for, Vader, etc...) but I don't think we can really know just how much that is important to people- if for no other reason than it's important to a lot of us, which may skew our assessment of the impact those factors will have on non SW fanhumans. it also has a lot going against it, not the least of which is the precipitous drop off from TPM to AOTC, which is a BO indicator that cannot be overlooked when trying to predict sequel performance.

whether it's good or not (and in my opinion, given everything I've seen and read, I don't think it can be anything better than good- if it was a truly great film a la ESB that could be the intangiable needed to light ROTS box office fire, but that aint gonna happen) isn't as much of a factor as whether it's likeable. I think the darker tone will please a lot of the fans, but not the general public. which is not to say this is going to be really dark, it's star wars after all, but it's not going to be independence day. there is also the fact that unless a movie has a really broad appeal demographically, or captures the zeitgeist or some kind of lighting in a bottle (which is hard to predict), it's really difficult for summer movies to perform long term with the murderer's row that's lined up behind them in each successive week. I also think the marketing overload which is designed to maximize exposure can work against a film by killing the spontaneous feel of many runaway smashes. there's not as much excitement talking about a film everyone is expected to see.

all this leads me to believe the film will not make anywhere close to 400 million. I don't think it's impossible, but I think my personal jones for seeing the duel and the birth of vader is not something the average person shares. my guess is, taking into account ATOC diminished performance but also the positive intangiables ROTS has going for it, it will top out between 300 and 325.

Lucas said during the opening of TPM that ROTS will be the least succuessful.

I predict it will do $315 just for the fact its the last one and the slightly darker elements will help among those that obsess over such things.

Let's not forget Premiere's top 10 for the summer has been, oh, WRONG, for the last three years.

This Entertainment Weekly type logic. $310 is not a flop or disappointment of any kind. That sounds like government- style accounting.

AOTC had stiff competition from 'Spider-Man', another geek movie that had been anticipated since the early 80's.


I understand your point, I just don't agree with it.

If Coke had been #1 for twenty years running and dropped to #2, then that'd be considered a bad year no matter how many units had been sold. People may be exicting for the return of familiar elements (Wookies, Vader) but considering their admitted short shrift and because they have been a thrust of the marketing campaign this may leave some colder than had they not been there at all.

$349,754,958.65

My prediction....

Number, 1.- 338 millions.

I'll go high and say $350 million. And where is Batman Begins getting all this hype outside the internet? Everyone I've talked to says it either looks dull, or they're just not interested after Batman & Robin (and these are people who were pre-teens when B&R was released). War of the Worlds is Revenge of the Sith's big summer competition.

Top grossing movie of the year?

It's gonna be close, but I think Kongs going to beat it. Although I hope not because it's the last Star Wars. Prequel or no prequel.

I'm gonna not re-invent the wheel and go ahead and predict it'll hover around 300 mil. I think it'll do similar box office to AOTC, not counting the IMAX bump LFL gave it. How much was that? $8 million? I think AOTC was pretty much evidence that no matter how much you alienate the average filmgoer, the almighty Star Wars Fan Repeat Dollar is always good for a few hundred mil, regardless. I think any higher or lower it goes will be all about perceived quality, and I long ago gave up trying to understand the fickle wench that is the American Heartland's taste in movies.

Won't the PG-13 rating play a role in all of this?

Is that a fact or a decree?

I have to disagree with both of these statements, neither of these seem to be true (I'm not going to declare them completely false either, but this statement is more based on your own biases than anything else and you know it), at least not among some of the more prominent circles that I usually hang around in, which do contain quite a few industry professionals, many of whom seem to be very excited about Sith, despite not being that enthusiastic about the previous two films.There just seems to be an overall positive vibe surrounding this film.

Not that War of the Worlds isn't going to make bank, it could possibly make more domestically than Revenge of the Sith, but there really hasn't been that much hype around it.

I predict it'll be about five minutes after opening that the SW fans will move the H in SITH, to sit next to that S....

AOTC was the number three film in its year (behind Spider-Man and Two Towers), so the precedent has already been set for a Star Wars film not to be #1 for the year, so if ROTS doesn't pull that off, I don't think it's that big a deal.

I agree. Stating that TPM and AOTC are inferior quality (relative to the OT) and then arguing anything other than top spot at this year's box office is failure seems somewhat schizophrenic to me.

Not amongst people around here.

I don't remember how Minority Report was marketed (action film? intelligent sci-fi?) but it didn't break too many records. Maybe WOTW is easier to market, but then the trailers have mostly been human drama oriented - where are the aliens? where's the explosions? i ain't going to see that shit! People are boring!

i would imagine everyone who saw AOTC will go to see ROTS, plus does anybody know how much average ticket prices have gone up in the last three years? or the last six?

This is a geek circle. Hold my hand.

Incorrect. At a poker night last week, my mates - i believe Amercians call them "buddies" or something - were talking about big summer movies, and they came up with 2 big ones they want to see, Kong and ROTS. And yes, I do know Kong isnt till Xmas.
In addition to that, every time I have been in a cinema - i believe Americans call them "theatres" or something - and the ROTS trailer is played, people are hushed during it and talking about it amongst themselves afterwards.
I think that this movie is the most anticipated for people 25 or above. Everyone younger than that is prob more enthused about WOTW or even Harry Potter, which may yet turn out to be the biggest film of the year, espec considering the new book is out this summer.
Are the BO figures everyone has been quoting based on US domestic or worldwide?

The majority of filmgoers don't post on internet forums.

Say it with me. Repeat it. Put it on a t-shirt if it helps you remember. And don't cry, light a candle.

$300 million.

Just to clarify, when I mean here, I mean around my place IRL.

Around here alot of casual filmgoers are extremely interested in Star Wars over all else. The trailer went a long way in building hype and winning over non-fans. Films that I would think to be on people's radar, such as WOTW or Batman: Begins, just aren't. Friends will frequently ask me about ROTS, and i'll make some comment about how its going to be a great genre year, what with films like King Kong and WOTW coming out as well, and for the most part they have no clue about the other two. One of my housemates top 3 must see at the moment are: Star Wars, Charlie and the Chocolate Factory, and Hitchhiker's.

To the point: 300-310 million, on par with AOTC.

I think this is a very accurate statement. The rating is will what will fuck up the BO, as parents won't be able to send their kids en masse to this. Or will not feel comfortable bringing their kids to it with the rating. Mind you, there are a lot of irresponsible parents out there (like the jack-offs who brough their 3 year old to the 10pm showing of Traffic because they could afford the $32.00 for the cinema and not a babysitter).

Hype around here is for Star Wars for sure, but there are a lot of good films coming out this summer. Batman is getting all kinds of hype here for some reason. Not so much with War of the Worlds.

My prediction: $220 million after a 12 week run. Killer opening weekend, then gradual drop for 4 weeks, then trickle traffic for 8 more.