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SITH Box Office Predictions - Page 6

post #251 of 274
4/20/05 at 4:52pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by Fett
Oh yeah, I agree for the most part, and I think the bracket I'm in is small where we still consume the merchandise, yet aren't hugely fond of the movies. Like with AOTC, which I certainly don't think is a good flick by any step of the mark, although I have a Gunship sitting at home because I dig the design of the thing (the aspect of which is I think is probably the best thing about the prequels).
See, I actually think your attitude is less uncommon among fans than you think (although you're more honest about it than most). Go over to MF and look at any of the ROTS threads. They're full of people who've bought the comics, the novels, the making-of book, the toys, games, etc. And yet, in any thread discussing ROTS, they primarily analyze the new material (lines in the trailer, the script) in light of "this will be so much better than TPM or AOTC." There's a tacit understanding among these folks that the last two movies were not up to snuff, but it's a "No one beats up my kid brother but me" type of deal, where only among people who are similarly invested in it can they open up and be honest about their disappointment. I could write a whole sociology thesis on this stuff.
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post #252 of 274
4/20/05 at 6:50pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by Estel
See, I actually think your attitude is less uncommon among fans than you think (although you're more honest about it than most). Go over to MF and look at any of the ROTS threads. They're full of people who've bought the comics, the novels, the making-of book, the toys, games, etc. And yet, in any thread discussing ROTS, they primarily analyze the new material (lines in the trailer, the script) in light of "this will be so much better than TPM or AOTC." There's a tacit understanding among these folks that the last two movies were not up to snuff, but it's a "No one beats up my kid brother but me" type of deal, where only among people who are similarly invested in it can they open up and be honest about their disappointment. I could write a whole sociology thesis on this stuff.
I think how much ROTS makes is dependent on how much Joe Average was dissapointed by the first two prequels.
BTW over at www.theforce.net we are getting the expected "It gonna make more than Titanic" crap.
Hell, I think it will hard pressed to make more then ROTK....
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post #253 of 274
4/21/05 at 4:52pm
According to Countingdown.com, pre-sales at Fandango show ROTS as the fastest selling movie to date by far at this point in the selling cycle.

It bodes well for a big opening weekend, at least. I don't buy movie tickets online and I probably won't get to see the movie until the Monday or Tuesday after the opening weekend, but they'll have my money eventually.
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post #254 of 274
4/21/05 at 5:01pm
The fanbase is still one of the largest of its kind, and there's going to be heat on this for opening weekend. The film should have a 100+ million dollar opening weekend/4-day with the Thursday opening. Attack of the Clones did 110 for the four day, I'm gonna guess this will do 120. After that... who knows for sure.

Kingdom of Heaven may have the date to be the first "Summer" release, but it probably won't do summer numbers, making Sith the first summer event film of the year, which will also boost the gross... maybe it'll get to 130 or 140 - though running time and print saturation may be prohibitive.
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post #255 of 274
4/21/05 at 7:00pm
No one doubts ROTS will have a gigantic opening weekend..maybe even break a few records.
The question is how strong will it's "Legs" be? When all the fanboys have seen it five or six times how will it do with the average filmgoer? That is the real question and it is hard to get a read on it.
Don't forget that most people who buy advanced tickets this far in advance are the hardcore geeks, and they are not who will decide the failure of sucess fo the movie.

The first big "Summer Event" movie is Hitchiker's Guide..or at least Touchstone is promoting and spending the marketing money like it is, which probably makes it one as far as the industry goes. Which does not mean it will do blockbuster business , of course.
"Heaven" is hard to read as far as Box Office goes. I could see this doing "Gladiator" level numbers or not even making it to the Hundred Million mark or even being an out and out bomb. It really hard to say on this one.
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post #256 of 274
4/21/05 at 7:12pm
Gladiator was rated R.

I don't think ROTS will have the same legs as TPM as there's at least some level of competition at the box office. I remember seeing TPM twice in the theaters, for basically the sole reason that there was just nothing else worth seeing.
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post #257 of 274
4/21/05 at 11:03pm
I think I saw TPM twice at the cinema, but it might have just been once...it's been a while so I can't recall. I saw AOTC twice, once with my wife and once during the day by myself (I was ditching work for the afternoon). I can't imagine seeing ROTS more than twice no matter how good it is. I love SW, but I just don't have the time. Once I get it on DVD, I'll watch it quite a bit, I'm sure. I think I've watched TPM about 6 or 8 times and AOTC about the same on DVD with my kids (Ages 6 and 3). They absolutely love both movies..."chips off the old block", I guess.
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post #258 of 274
4/22/05 at 4:15pm
When TPM opened, it has almost a whole month to itself because everybody in the Business was so afraid of it.
That did not happen with AOTC and is not happening with ROTS.
"Longest Yard" looks like it is going to be terrible movie I have no interest in seeing, but I would not be suprised if it kicks ROTS off the #1 spot just two weeks after ROTS opens. I am not saying that will happen, but I think it is a very real possbility.
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post #259 of 274
4/22/05 at 5:23pm
That's right. The Sum of All Fears hurt Attack of the Clones' box office more than Spider-man did. If anything, AOTC hurt Spider-man's box office.
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post #260 of 274
4/22/05 at 8:25pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mr. Creosote
That's right. The Sum of All Fears hurt Attack of the Clones' box office more than Spider-man did. If anything, AOTC hurt Spider-man's box office.
The point is that no one dared opened a big release for weeks after TPM opened.
They did open some big releases a couple of weeks after AOTC.
The Star Wars Fans can talk all they want, but Spiderman ended up making more domestically....a lot more....then AOTC.
And Spiderman 's Box Officer held up very well against AOTC.
Yes, Star Wars is still a 600 pound gorilla at the Box office, but it used to be a 1000 pound gorilla.
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post #261 of 274
4/22/05 at 8:31pm
But when it was a 1000 pound gorilla, the movies were good.

What hurt AOTC's box office was that it wasn't very good. TPM had all the repeat business of 'OMG I'm awash with nostalgia it's so good to see SW again' and 'OMG I have to see it again because it really can't be that bad' whereas with three years for its badness to sink in, people realized pretty quickly that yes, it really was that bad, and a large element didn't do the repeat stuff they did for TPM.

And not all of us "fans" give a fuck whether SPIDER-MAN beat us or not. I care more that SPIDER-MAN was a much better movie, not that it made more money.
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post #262 of 274
5/18/05 at 7:24pm
With the favorable Critical response, I am revisiing my prediction upward. It will do better then AOTC and end up around the 350-375 Million mark, with a slight chance to reach 400 Million.
This post is partially in interest of boosting this thread back to the top so no one starts still another ROTS
thread concering the Box Office interest of a halfway clean board.
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post #263 of 274
5/19/05 at 5:09am
Just Got out of Midight Screening, Movie is going to make bank!!!Gotta break 400mil, its pretty damn good.
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post #264 of 274
5/19/05 at 10:43am
Judging by the line to get into the theater last night, this thing is going to be huge. I'm not saying that because of the all the sweaty geeks in the their Jedi robes, but because of all the 10 and 11 year-old boys I saw running around with lightsabers who could name any character from the PT at the drop of a hat. They're gonna go back and see this thing over and over again.
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post #265 of 274
5/19/05 at 2:43pm
Of course it is going to be huge, the question is how huge?
I have to caution again that the opening day audeinces are not a really reliable indicator for a Star Wars film. Too many hardcore Geeks, not enough Joe Averages. And it will be the Joe Averages who decide how much cash the film will bring in. BUt the favorable...at least in the US, I understand the UK critics have not been kind...critical reaction has,IMHO, greatly improved it chances with the general public.
A couple of weeks ago I was of the opinion that WOTW would be the biggest hit of the Summer. No I am not so sure it will claim the #1 spot.

"!!!Gotta break 400mil, its pretty damn good."
ROTS might break 400 Mill, but anybody who thinks that a good movie will autmotically make money and a bad one will automatically flop needs a dose of reality. A lot of very good movies bomb and lot of absolute turds are huge hits.
TPM was a bad movie, but it broks 400 Mill...
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post #266 of 274
5/19/05 at 2:49pm
To be fair, TPM was a different case because every man and his dog went to see it, and a lot of us saw it because of nostalgia factor of having a new SW movie, and a lot of others saw it many times because they couldn't believe it could suck so badly. Which is why AOTC took such a downer comparitively, even though it seems to have been generally received better amongst the general public.
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post #267 of 274
5/19/05 at 8:15pm
How it holds up next week will be decisive as to how much ROTS finally grosses.
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post #268 of 274
5/19/05 at 8:31pm
I have a feeling you may see a generational thing with this one. Parents wanting to take their kids to the last Star Wars movie that bridges the gap between the ones they grew up with and the ones their kids have. Older brothers taking their younger brothers. It's the last one ever, and I think the pull of nostalgia may be pretty strong.
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post #269 of 274
5/19/05 at 11:39pm
Well The Hollywood Reporter psoted a stroy saying that ROTS shatterd a copule of records by having the higest grossing movie for a midnight showing by making about $17 million. That is a great start, and I have a feeling that it will break Spiderman's opening weekend record of $115 million.
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post #270 of 274
5/20/05 at 12:00am
Hey Dudlab,

Chill the fuck out, get a dose of reality my ass. Just cause I thought it was good doesn't mean I am a dumbass you piece of shit. I am just kidding....but seriously man, I was just enthusiastic but frankly I don't give a god damn how much fucking money this movie makes. Still gonna be people starving and it will just go fat white guys but I still liked the movie.
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post #271 of 274
5/20/05 at 5:28pm
ROTS just shattered a couple of more records yesterday. Here is the story.




While Star Wars: Episode III Revenge of the Sith was expected to have a big opening, no one expected it to be this big! George Lucas' third and final prequel in the "Star Wars" saga earned an incredible $50 million from 3,661 theaters on Thursday alone. That's an average of $13,661 per location for just one day.

The $50 million opening, which includes $16.5 million from midnight screenings, blows away the $40.4 million opening day record held previously by Spider-Man 2 from 4,152 theaters, and it also marks the biggest single day ever at the North American box office, beating Shrek 2's $44.8 million from 4,163 theaters.

In comparison, 1999's Star Wars: Episode I The Phantom Menace debuted to $28.5 million in 2,970 theaters and 2002's Star Wars: Episode II Attack of the Clones to $30.1 million in 3,161 locations.

Released by 20th Century Fox, "Revenge of the Sith" was produced for about $113 million.
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post #272 of 274
5/20/05 at 5:36pm
Damn, I think we all new this would be the movie to beat this year, for BO anyway, but this think isn't going to slow. As good as Batman and War of the Worlds will do, it won't touch this. Wheter it tops A new Hope's gross, I don't know., but even still, DAMN. This weekend is going to be huge. By monday, this thing is going to be ALL profit.
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post #273 of 274
5/21/05 at 3:05am
"By monday, this thing is going to be ALL profit."
Lucas is going get a lot richer from this, all right, but since the film cost 130 Million for the film and another 80 Million to market I would say that it might take a few days more to get into the profits column.
But damn, I was not expecting 50 Million opening day,...maybe 40 million.
I think this film has a real chance to reach 400 Million..something I would have doubted a couple of weeks ago.
WOTW is still the main competitior ROTS will have for the summer's biggest film. Batman will be a big hit, but I am skeptical that it will do above 250 Million.
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post #274 of 274
5/21/05 at 10:42am
Its a sad day when 250 million isn't a "HIT" Besides, I think a lot of people underestimate the appeal of Batman films on these boards, especially in terms of money making.
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