Judging the level of success for ROTS

I don't think it will beat Phantom Menace, or even Spiderman. People will see it once, maybe twice, then the dvd will be a few months away so why pay to see it again? Cinema ticket sales are terrible at the moment, its gonna have to be pretty special to make +350 million I reckon. But isn't Lucas expecting this one to do not-so-great? Or was that just Lucas-speak?

I think dvd is where this one will clean up.

just my opinion- but if it doesn't significantly improve on the AOTC numbers yet still manages to eke out the number 1 action movie of the summer slot then I think it'll be viewed as a success. especially if you have the lucas beats spielberg perception. say it does 315 and WoW is second with 300, that's a success. but if WoW does 350 and it does 315, maybe not so much. now if WoW is a 400 million dollar behemoth, but ROTS improves on AOTC to the tune of 350 or so, then I think it'll still be viewed favorably.

as for riding the tail end of star wars, I actually think that's the only way it's going to overcome the dropoff effect that AOTC started. If the duel/vader/last star wars movie factor has a strong enough pull with audiences it'll do well. but if that doesn't have currency with the public then at best it's going to tread water. still, if the box office really is weak this year a low 300 million take might be enough to position it at no. 1. and if it holds there all summer I'll consider it relatively successful.

Success: Beat AotC at the box-office, and I think anything less will be a failure. I don't think it has a real chance to take TPM's $430M.

As far as weeks at the top; there is Madagascar in about two weeks, but I have no idea if that's really supposed to be good. If it is, then it would be great if RotS could keep the #1 spot through that weekend. I guess.

I think that The Longest Yard will actually be the #1 movie the week right after Star Wars. I would say that it has to come awfully close to $400 million to be considered an outright success. At the very least it has to do better than AotC.

Judging by audience reactions to the trailers, MADAGASCAR should do very good business. Kids will turn out automatically, and I think older audiences will are looking forward to it as well.

So I think MADAGASCAR will knock ROTS out of number one. But as long as it beats AOTC it will be considered a success.

Frankly I think it will make 30-40 million less than CLONES, but that's just a wild guess.

I'm gonna guess around 143 for the four (and a half) day, and it's got memorial weekend, but I think Madagascar will be #1 or The Longest Yard, and I think both will be close or above 100 for the four day. In fact this memorial weekend may see some of the biggest business ever for a weekend, you could concievably have three pictures do north of 100 for the four day (I don't think that will happen with the three day numbers, though). But though I think it'll open huge, I hear some reservations from the non-faithful who've seen it, even the ones that like the PT. That though may because they know I'm going in I'm not the world's biggest PT fan. Still, the film has hit oversaturation levels right now, and part of me wonders if that's going to backfire. I haven't seen it, but though the old Star Wars feeling may be back, it's still about the pain and the destruction of all that was good and stuff, so I don't know how much repeat business it'll get from the casual film goer. I don't know how much repeat business there's left, or if people won't just wait for DVD.

We already had a box office prediction thread for this film: http://chud.com/forums/showthread.php?t=79851

I am going to go out on a limb and say that the box office will, in no way shape or form, define the success of this movie. I think it's legacy will define it's success, insomuch as whether or not people will talk about this film fondly after the summer comes and goes. My gut feeling is that it will be forgettable by itself, and that the prequels will be viewed, as time goes on, as a failed attempt to realize a vision. The level of success financially will be great, but this prequel phenomenon will be viewed in 10 years as the series of steps that killed the magic of Star Wars for a great many people. And on that basis, this film and it's two predecessors will be viewed as failures.

that's all well and good-- but, at least in the short term, there is an importance to the numbers. in 20 years time people may only talk about ROTS box office if it breaks records or bombs spectacularly, but that's not what this thread is about. the financial fortunes of the film are something that people will judge. and no matter how little that plays into the film's overall legacy, for right now it matters.

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For this one, the level of success hinges upon performance, performance performance. I have yet to see ROTS but from what I have seen of the performances, well, I've been impressed. Here's hoping it delivers.

My point is that box office isn't going to matter one whit, short or long term, because it will be huge compared to any other movie released this year and possibly the last couple of years. When all of the dust settles, people may remember it as a good movie. But it's success, because it's Star Wars and I believe that these films will get held to a different standard that other movies for many reasons, will be in the legacy it leaves. All of the things that will determine that legacy will be non-financial in nature. The thread is actually about how you are going to judge this film and what criteria you will use to determine if it will be a success, and I believe this can extend past simple numbers talk. Like I pointed out above, we have a whole two page thread about the numbers game already.

These films are a financial success no questions asked. ROTS could make $5.00 and the PT will have been a financial success overall because of all of the money the last two made. But as a Star Wars fan, I see the films as more than the dollars at the end of the day. They (should) transcend the boundary between being just movies, and being cultural impacters. And so far the PT has failed to do this on some important levels. Lucas has succeeded in showing a bunch of aspiring directors the magic that can happen with digital film-making, and I think this will be the most important thing to come out of this exercise. But he has also introduced one of the most unpopular characters into popular culture in Jar-Jar Binks. The mythic basis to the story has not been present, and the myth-forms on display thus far are muddled when they exist at all.

you're wrong, mike. if this film made $5, hell if it made $200,000,005, it would be seen as a financial dissapointment. these things you're talking about, the cultural and critical legacy of the movie, are not the topic at hand. the b.o. numbers might mean nothing to you but they're still relevant in hollywood, and to those of us who like to jabber about such things.

I'd say his problem lies more with the fact that there already was/is a box office thread that already covered this subject so instead of seeing the same horseshit tread water again he'd try and swing it into a different direction then the normal "numbers" talk.

Godzuki gets the star. Box Office Talk has been done to death on this movie, and I don't see anything more relevant coming out of talking about it in and of itself.

Whether i like it or not.

The demand for toys come christmas time is a pretty good barometer.
Like many here, I can remember when Star Wars really mattered. It actually approached that level of mythic legend that Lucas was striving for. Months after the movies' releases, kids gobbled up the toys and such in order to continue the story on their own. (Even this level of fantaticism dwindled after Jedi, or perhaps I just got older.)
There was a cultural impact that occured naturally. You see Sith stuff all over the place now, but it all reeks of orchestrated corporate synergy.
If months from now Sith and the other prequels continue to have resonance, if they are discussed at work or on the school yard, then it can be considered a success on level with the OT.

For what it's worth, that's not going to happen.

On a less facetious note: if in six months or so the internet has reached some vague form of consensus that it is 'pretty good actually, i suppose', that will be quite an achievement. If people will consider it an honorary part of the OT - maybe watching it first as part of an OT marathon - that will be some form of success. If it lights up a wider excitement for the TV series or future SW projects, that will show its qualities.

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so you saw it, Poopoodle?

IMHO, which many may disagree with, Sith dovetails with the way he acts, 18 years later, in the original series. The first two prequel films don't, but this one does. So, from that angle, it's a success.

They don't matter as much as with other movies, since Lucas is not going to have trouble getting himself finaced for anything he wants to do in the future.

Revenge of the Sith drew an estimated $16.5 million from midnight showings alone on its opening day, according to 20th Century Fox. The early figure stands as the biggest midnight launch on record.

"There are a lot of absentees today," Bruce Snyder, Fox's head of distribution, quipped to Box Office Mojo, referring to those who skipped work and school to see Star Wars. "Lots of people went through the turnstiles last night, and the matinees right now are fabulous. There's a very good chance of breaking the single day record."

Approximately 2,900 of Revenge of the Sith's 3,661 theaters showed the motion picture at midnight, with those 3,661 venues receiving over 9,000 prints, making the movie one of the most highly circulated releases of all time. The previous Star Wars episode, Attack of the Clones, which also opened on a Thursday, earned $6.2 million during its premiere midnight showing in over 1,400 theaters in 2002. That contributed to a then record weekday gross of $30.1 million. "

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I think if any of the prequels will make money its this one. It's has Vader and Chewbacca and Yoda. That means all those "I like the cute little green guy" people will be going to see it.

I also dont doubt The LOngest Yard will be the first movie to drop it out of #1

Episode III will be a success if 25 years from now, when people talk about Star Wars, they include Episode III. I don't mean people bashing Star Wars, or comparing 3 to 4, 5, 6 or saying "I wish there was no Episode III"... I mean that before the prequels, we all thought of STAR WARS as 3 movies. Give it a couple decades, remember it, reflect on it, want to watch the whole thing one day--and will people's general recollection of the saga be 3 movies still, or 4, or 6? It's too early to say, I think, and it may be a generational thing.

236,733,000 in less than 2 weeks. Does anyone have any updated ideas for a bx office take?

If big budget Hollywood popcorn movies continue their downward spiral down the feces-caked toilet of creative bankruptcy at their current rate, I imagine many of us will look back at all six STAR WARS movies with great fondness. I can easily imagine fleeing from some futuristic 3D-HD multiplex showing THREE'S COMPANY 2 or McG's remake of NIGHT OF THE HUNTER starring Jimmy Fallon, and running back to the bossom of the STAR WARS Saga to suckle on its comparatively sweet milk.

Exactly right. Box office aside, true success will be measured once the hoopla has settled down. Try as I might, I can't emotionally detach from these films the first time around. I am hardly a fanboy, but I did like TPM and AOTC more when I first saw them in the theatres, immersed in the opening event spectacles. Same with ROTS - I could not focus on the objective merits of the movie, I was too busy soaking in the face off between Obi-Wan and Anakin before they got down to business. Wait a few months, wait a few years, opinions will change, due to the films aging, the viewers aging, etc. Right now, one's opinion re: whether ROTS is a success (BO aside) is, for most of us, based purely on emotion. Which is fine. And which is also leading to the vitriol in many of the other threads dealing with ROTS...