Fantasy baseball discussion thread- share hints, tips and strategies here

Keep Beltran.

OK, question:
my four 5 outfielders are Pat Burrell, Sammy Sosa, Scott Podsednik, Matt Lawton, and Kevin Mench.
who gets benched?
I can't use any as a utility player, because I have Scott Rolen on 3B and Aramis Ramirez as UTIL.

Lawton. You have a bunch of streaky players there, but he's on the worst offensive team & will have the hardest time scoring points.

Fabfunk: I personally wouldn't trade Beltran for Blalock (at least not in your situation where you have a good 3B). Beltran has the ability to explode in any given 1-4 week period and produce astonishing number. I think Beltran will pick it up (although he may not steal more than 10 bases this season... though he did have stratches last year where he didn't steal a base forever, then he busted out with 5-10 in no time, so you never can tell).

barbelithbomb: I didn't quite understand how many OFs you wanted to play... but if you only have to bench 1, bench Sosa. If you can only start 3 (and thus bench 2), I'd bench Lawton as well. Then just keep an eye on then, and if Sosa hits a groove, bench one of your OFs who might be in a cold spell, but I think Burrell, Podsednik, and Mench are your top 3 with Lawton just a step behind... and then Sosa bringing up the rear.

Keep Beltran.

As for the CHUD B league... I'm getting my ass kicked because my SP aren't performing and many of my fielders are getting placed on the DL day after day. I can't get a break!

Let's hope keeping Schilling pays off....

See, I think Lawton is underrated and Sosa is overrated. Lawton can be streaky, but most of his trouble comes from injuries... but that is easy... play him until he gets injured. He is a potential 20/20 guy with the ability to get around 100 runs while keeping a decent average.

Right now he is beating Sosa in EVERY fantasy category (and most non-fantasy categories as well) except HRs in which they are tied at 9.

Sosa has much better power potential... but he isn't living up to it, so I say sit on Sosa until either Lawton slumps bad or gets injured, or until Sosa busts out with some power.

Same with me, man. I got fucked cos of him, and Thome just sucking overall so far this season.

I have 5 guys officially on the DL and about 4-5 that are day to day.

Sosa was hurt, that's why he doesn't have the HR or RBI totals. With the Oriole line-up, he'll have more opportunity for points.

Nah, even if you extrapolate Sosa's numbers out to have as many AB + BBs as Lawton, he still loses overall.

He ends up with about 3 more HRs than Lawton, but 6 less SBs... advantage Lawton.
He ends up with about 1 more RBI, but 6 less Rs... advantage Lawton.
Sosa's AVG is .022 points lower than Lawtons (.251 vs. 273)... advantage Lawton.
And, if your league counts BBs... Lawton would have 11 more after extrapolation... advantage Lawton.

Don't buy into the Sosa hype unless he actually starts batting closer to .270 and hitting HRs.

Also... that doesn't count tonights game where Sosa went 0-4 with 3 strike outs... while Lawton scored 2 more runs.

Also... I don't know why you think Pitt can't produce runs. Lawton bats first in a lineup where the 2-4 hitters are batting over .300 as a group. Not too shabby for run production.

Ok folks, I need some advice as well. With the season ending loss of Gagne I am need of a good closer. My overall SP staff varies from very good to shaky (Oswalt, An. Garcia, Arroyo, Harden). I am considering a trade where I would give up Oswalt and get Mariano Rivera and Chris Capuano. Now of course Rivera is sweet, but Capuano leaves a bad taste in my mouth. Thoughts on this? Thanks!

BHT

What Sosa hype?

Extrapolating really means shit. You're assuming they're both going to play exactly the same as they have for the rest of this season.

I'm not a Sosa fan, but neither player is that good. I'll take my chances with the number 5 hitter on one of the best offenses in baseball over the leadoff man for the god-awful Pirates.

Why on Earth would you ever think that's a good deal? No closer is worth an MVP-caliber 3B.

1) When I said "extrapolate" I didn't mean over the whole season. You remarked that Lawton had better stats up until this point in the season because Sosa missed at bats... I just tacked on extra stats to Sosa based on the ratio of at bats that Lawton had over Sosa to show that Lawton is playing better UP TO THIS POINT. I didn't make any "beyond today" predictions. I said Lawton is playing better NOW, so I would play Lawton NOW... UNTIL Sosa heats up (if he does).

I do not deny Sosa has more potential, but he really, really sucks this year... and the front of the Pitt lineup isn't as bad as you seem to think it is. Plus, while the Bal lineup is good... it doesn't help all that much when you can't even bat .250 and strike out most of the time (as opposed to putting the ball in play to have a chance at getting runners in even if he gets out himself). He also isn't playing near enough to Roberts for that to make much of a difference, he has absolutely nobody behind him to drive him in, and he has crappy Palmeiro in front of him keeping him on step further away from being able to drive in Roberts/Tejada (when Tejada is kind enough to leave people on base).

2) If you look at Sosa vs. Lawton last season (adding stats to Sosa to make up for his 100+ less at bats than Lawton...), guess who was better? Lawton. By "Sosa-hype", I didn't mean you were a Sosa fan or thought he was an All-Star... I meant that as a former 1st/2nd round fantasy draft pick, his name and power potential make people play him when they have guys performing much better (both currently and in the recent past) that they should be playing.

3) Sure, you can say extrapolating means shit (not that I was talking about season extrapolating... but not I will)... but it doesn't. Is it 100% accurate? Nope. But I bet it is probably at least 75% accurate (depending upon how we statistically define accuracy, of course) at this point in the season. And then if you factor in a few other things like; year long stats for the past couple years, 1st half/2nd half stat differences in a players career, etc... I bet you are even more accurate. Based on all of that, I say play Lawton unless Sosa can start belting HRs again.

I agree... but I know there are 2 groups in the fantasy bsaeball world when it comes to closers.

I'm in Guttenberg's group. I hate closers. I will not draft a projected top 10 closer to save my life (unless he gets massively passed over and falls really far).

Additionally, my personal preference is to only trade for mid-range closers and keep an eye out for other closers losing their jobs and getting injured and snatch backups off the waiver wire. Generally, my rule is don't trade for a top 15 closers, just not worth it. Grab a guy with mediocre or slightly poor WHIP/ERA/K, but someone who gets lots of save opportunities.

I would start Lawton, you're getting Hrs from the other players. I would, however, start Sosa against left handed pitching (do you check your lineup every day?) and bench somebody else with an unfavorable matchup.

I would DEFINITELY pull the trigger on blalock/beltran, then immediately trade one of your 3B's for a better player than Beltran. You're being given the chance to erase the biggest fantasy bust of the year from your roster, you should leap all over it. Beltran must be hurt. The guy has one friggin' stolen base.

I am in three leagues this year. I drafted Brian Roberts, Johan Santana, and Derrek Lee in all of them. I am destroying all three leagues.

I always take two SPs with my first two picks (Schilling hasn't panned out this year, I have him in two leagues, Oswalt in the other). Then, I always take either a middle infielder or a stud CI with my third pick. From that point forward, I heavily load up on power hitting CIs and OFs, SPs, and Cls. I ignore middle infielders, catchers, stolen base guys, and guys who haven't produced for at least two years in a row in the major leagues until the later rounds. I don't draft guys who don't have an opportunity to close, ever.

Here are some random strategizing thoughts:

There are plenty of OFs out there. I am dominating with outfields consisting of guys like Carl Everett, Brad Wilkerson, Jay Gibbons, Shannon Stewart, etc. Also, plenty of OFs and 1Bs slip to rounds 4-6 for no reason. This year, guys like Derrek Lee, Hank Blalock, Adam Dunn, and a few others were excellent examples. I have Lee in all three leagues, and Dunn in two of them.

I NEVER take a closer before round six, I NEVER take a Catcher until the second half of the draft, and I NEVER take more than one middle infielder in the first ten rounds. I see those positions as having plenty of depth, with not a lot of difference between the top and the bottom (at least, not enough difference to pay the draft price premium).

I almost always dump stolen bases as a category, and try to finish third or fourth from last. Wasting a roster spot on one tool wonders like Scott Posednik is counter productive, and if they go down, they can't be replaced. If your 35 HR OF or CI goes down, you can usually trade or pick up a potential 20-25 guy and hope for the best. If your 40 SB guy goes down good luck finding anybody who can replace 1/3 of that total without destroying your other categories.

DO NOT REACH. I am doing fine with Joe Randa, Jorge Cantu, and other early season acquisitions. Why go out on a limb for a Dallas McPherson or Jose Reyes? Let somebody else take the rookie, and you can load up on sure things and then pounce on guys who get hot. You need roster flexibility.

DON'T FALL IN LOVE WITH YOUR BAD PICKS: i.e., Carlos Beltran, Todd Helton, Oliver Perez, etc. You waste half a season with guys who are obviously busts, you have no chance to win. Give everybody a month and a half. If they haven't produced by then, start making moves.

todd helton is the wrong guy to say "hey he's not playing well i'm gonna have to axe him". he hits .330 every year. he's the type of guy who'll get it going. now beltran...the guy has never been great in my opinion.

What???

Are you serious?

4 straight All-Star caliber years where he averaged 110+ runs, 100+ RBIs, 70+ BBs, about a .290 average, and just about 30 HR/40 SB.

The year before that he was injured and the year before that (his first full MLB season) he was nearly as good as he has been the past 4 years.

Plus, he put up those amazing numbers while playing mostly for KC. Beltran has always been great... well, until this year. :P

he's been good but not great. never consistent either. everything comes in spurts. always seems to miss some time which slows his production down. 4 all-star caliber years? yeah right. what has he made one? 4 good years but again nothing great. he came into baseball hot and he hasn't improved in my opinion. i guess you could say his power numbers went up slightly. last season was about it and minutemaid had somethign to do with that. now he's in shea and cliff floyd looks better then him. let him run willie! he's a good to very good player but not great. over rated in my opinion. he certainly has the tools to be amazing but he simply hasn't put it all together. playing in kc didn't even really hurt his stats. he still had sweeney protecting him. how often do we hear a player's numbers would be better if they were on a good team only to finally go somewhere great and suck it up. i'm talking to you jeff weaver. beltran will always be a better fantasy ballplayer then a major league baseball player. all i want is some bobby abreu love!

Well sure... but this is a fantasy baseball thread, not an actual baseball thread, so everything I've said only concerns Beltran in regards to fantasy baseball.

Beltran (not counting this year) and Abreu are clones in pretty much every detail except OBP. Abreu is a slightly/moderately better hitter for average and a MUCH more patient hitter (those walk #s are awesome!), and Beltran has a slight edge historically in HR/SB.

This year Beltran sucks, and Abreu is the man. No question there... but in their good years, they are nearly identical.

As far as Beltran being injured, it really only hurt his fantasy value in 2000. When he missed a short amount of time in 2003, he still hbit 100+ RBIs and runs, batted over .300, and had 26 HR with 41 SB.

But yeah, to restate it... this year Beltran sucks so far, I will agree with you there.

And I hope you like my Abreu lovin'. I tried to trade for him in the beginning of the season, but no dice.

I was able to tweak my deal. Instead of being offered Mariano Rivera and Chris Capuano for Roy Oswalt now I have him offering Rivera and John Garland. I think I'm taking this one.

BHT

Meh, Carlos Beltran is the opposite, a better Baseball player than Fantasy player, it is why these Bobby Abreu comparisons continue, and why he's incredibly underrated by those that play these games.

Most fantasy leagues don't care about outfield position, so all of a sudden we're comparing left and right fielders to a center fielder. Most leagues don't care about SB/CS rates, which are incredibly important as far as actual baseball is concerned, since if you're stealing bases below an 80% clip, you're either just breaking even, or hurting your teams chances to score runs.

And let me repeat, the position he plays is incredibly relevant to this discussion. Center fielders, on average, are similar to middle infielders as far as offensive production goes. Having a player on your team that puts up corner outfielder numbers (even ignoring his prowess on the basepads) is incredibly valuable, and again, tends to be disregarded in fantasy leagues.

As for Beltran's season, his lack of speed is still due to a quad injury he's been dealing with since May 1st, and if any of you have had Cliff Floyd in recent years, you'll know, leg injuries can hamper both offensive production and speed. The reason Floyd is finally putting up All-Star calibur numbers again is because he's finally healthy for the first time as a Met.

Guess who would have lost out on a Cy Young year from Johan Santana (2-4, with a 5.51 ERA on June 3rd).

It all depends on how much time you have to spend on the game, if you can keep track of not only injury reports, but local news (There are plenty of local papers and blogs online) and the peripheral statistics your players are putting up, theres still room to determine who the busts are and who may just turn it around.

"Start making moves" does not mean "cut bait on everyone on your team".

Prior is worthless!

Anyone in the A League wanna trade for a sac of used baseballs?

I've got balls.

and a trade offer

Hint: Zack Duke

I got the trade offer, but I declined.

My offense is solid. I don't want to change anything around just now.
But I have Loretta coming off the DL and I'm gonna have to move someone.

I dropped Thome when he hit the DL and picked of Giambi. He's going nuts! I orignally drafted him and he was just taking up space.

eh, don't matter anyway. I fell out of any hope a long time ago. I kept playing and kept fighting, but once you fall behind in a roto league, it is impossible to make any sort of comeback.

A big money league I've been playing in for a few years came up with a neat way of keeping the roto feel but without having an impossible time getting back into things, and it seems to make things more exciting and involves some slightly different strategies (especially with pitchers).

We do weekly roto. Monday-Sunday is a scoring period, and at the end of Sunday's games your roto points are tallied. Then all stats get reset, and you do another week of roto. And continue this the entire season.

It usually ends up having at least a 70-80% overlap with how a full year would have ended up, but at the half-way point, everyone is still in it in theory because they don't have to make up for poor past performances, they just have to do really well in the weeks ahead. In our league, at this point in the season, I would say only 1 guy is basically out of the running for a top-3 money position because he is extremely far behind in points and his team isn't that good, but everyone else still has hope.

*bump

I'm adding some more advice. Be careful trading up-and comers who are under 30 for guys over 35....

Says the man trading for Jeff Kent.

Here's a tip-Wait on pitchers. DO NOT draft a pitcher in the first round.
From Sporting news
Last 3 years top 5 pitchers
2005
1 Santana-Slow start but finished strong
2 Big unit-era jump from 2.6 to 3.79
3 Sheets-limited to 22 starts
4 Schmidt-groin/shoulder problems-4.40 era, 1.42 whip
5 hudson-oblique strain

2004
1 Pedro Era jump from 2.22 to 3.90
2 Prior-injury boy 21 starts
3 Halladay Shoulder injury
4 Schilling Was a stud-one of the very few
5 Wood-sucked/injured

2003
1-Sore arm and back limits to 14 wins
2 unit 18 starts/injured 6-8 record
3 Schilling broke hand and hurt knee 8 game winner
4 Mulder made only 26 starts, k's dropped by nearly 30
5 Oswalt- groin, only 21 starts

In 3 drafts I found you can wait and get good to decent pitching after round 6. You can bulk up on hitters and then get guys who won 16-18 games last year.
10 team draft
pettitte rd 7/6
zito 7/11
cliff lee 8/6
hudson 9/8
mulder 10/7
Garland 12/11
c c sabathia 12/13
Plus many sleepers went later. Sure no studs but quality when combined with better hitting. plus every year pitchers come out of nowhere to produce 15 wins

in the 12 team league
6 beckett, pettitte,
7 smoltz, zito, lee
8 capuano, schilling, schmidt
9 webb
10 patterson
11 burnett hudson garcia haren
12 Garland kazmir vazquez, d davis

you can wait for starters and still get real good ones. in those 7 round if you choose 4 you'd be happy. then get a few sleepers later.

I was hoping someone would appreciate the irony.

Alfonso Soriano and Roger Clemens are pure gold as trade bait. People will be knocking down your door just for a sniff of those twos sweaty jockstraps...

another tip-don't draft/trade for clemens

According to MSNBC.com, free-agent SP Roger Clemens (Houston Astros) has told a couple of reporters he is planning to retire. Clemens has decided not to sign with anybody and will sit out the first month of the season. He did leave a small out, saying "the only thing is if I'm sitting in the stands in Boston, or New York, or somewhere in May, and get the itch again, who knows what will happen?"

Fan Funk is already a little peaved.