Official Oscar Speculation Thread  

Reese is good enough in WALK that she's almost certainly nominated. Straithern for GOOD NIGHT, and I can see him really challenging Hoffman. McDormand as best supporting from NORTH COUNTRY.

If the word of mouth keeps building on A History of Violence, Cronenberg will get nominated, I'd imagine.

Did Broken Flowers disappear too fast for Murray to get nominated again?

Do you think EVERYTHING IS ILLUMINATED will get a screenplay nod? Might be possible.

CORPSE BRIDE versus WALLACE & GROMIT (when it comes down to it) for best animated film?

If they market it well, GOOD NIGHT AND GOOD LUCK might have some sort of shot, although I haven't seen it yet.

I guess that the Ron Howard/Russell Crowe nominations are kind of a given, huh?

I didn't even see BROKEN FLOWERS. It was here and gone in a flash; I must have been elsewhere (maybe in the bathroom) when it was screened for press.

re: McDormand - same accent, yeah, and the illness is always a vote-getter, but no more than Charlize's physical deformation. She's a strong contender for me because I don't think people are going to want to hit Theron again, but it's a film that people will feel like they should vote for. McDormand is the obvious choice.

Cronenberg might get the nod. I'd be surprised, too, but stranger things (Lynch for ELEPHANT MAN) have happened.

Based on overheard reactions from Toronto, BROKEBACK MOUNTAIN seems sure to fit in somewhere.

I have yet to see WALK THE LINE, but from all indications, Reese is a lock for a Best Actress nom. Let's face it, the Best Actress noms aren't usually as difficult to pick as the Best Actor noms. Also, Ziyi Zhang from MEMOIRS OF A GEISHA will likely be making waves come Oscar time.

I'm curious how Eric Bana's performance in Spielberg's MUNICH will be received. If Spielberg is at the top of his absolute game, I expect Bana to get a nom for Best Actor.

Maria Bello in HISTORY OF VIOLENCE. I think she deserves some recognition.

You're right about Bello. Mortensen should get a nomination as well. I could see either Ed Harris or William Hurt getting a supporting actor nod.

I don't care what anyone says, Mickey Rourke deserves a supporting actor nomination for SIN CITY. Even people who hated the film seemed to like him and I could see the Academy rewarding him for clawing his way back to respectability.

I haven't seen any of them but SYRIANA, THE NEW WORLD, and ALL THE KING'S MEN seem to have Oscar bait floating around them.

Two slots on Best Animated are already sewn up: Wallace and Gromit and The Corpse Bride. The last slot could go to Howl's Moving Castle, but is it even eligible for this year? I don't know of any other foreign animation that could fill its place, and a small part of me is still too naive to think the Academy would put any of this year's CGI drivel in that spot. Right now my Vegas allowance would be on Wallace and Gromit winning. I may change my mind after the weekend.

I would agree that Philip Seymour Hoffman already has a spot reserved in the Best Actor category. That's easymode Oscar handicapping.

Clooney as Murrow may reap his first shot if the press buzz is any barometer. He may get two or three shots, matter of fact.

Yeah, you're right. He plays Fred Friendly. Hmmm.

What about Jarhead? I've heard that's pretty much a lock for Picture and Director, with
maybe Gyllenhaal for Best Actor and either Sarsgaard or Foxx for Supporting.

And if you believe the hype, Woody could be back in the running for the first time in a
long time, with Match Point.

I think Jarhead's success or failure depends a lot on the political climate in Hollywood this winter.

If there was a category for Best Trailer of the Year it would be a lock.

Agreed. The JARHEAD trailer is the first trailer I've seen in a long time that's actually got me excited to see the movie. It's kinda like the exact opposite of the SERENITY trailer in that regard.

I don't think Bill MUrray will get a nod for Broken Flowers, as it is so damn similar a role to the ones he played in Lost in Translation and Rushmore. I do hope that Jeffrey Wright gets a supporting nod though.

Devin, McDormand getting the nod for North Country is better than getting a nod for Aeon Flux WTF is going on with that trailer? That will make Serenity's box office take look like that of Titanic's.

I havent seen History of Violence yet as it hasn't opened down under, but is it a potential best picture?
I doubt very much wether the Academy would give a gong to Cronenberg no matter how finely crafted the film is, but can it pull off one of those "self directed" picture noms?

I think Rachel Weiz might get a supporting actress nod for The Constant Gardener, and Fiennes might get a nod as well. The out-of-left-field nomination would be Steve Carrell for The 40-Year-Old Virgin, which might at first seem like suggesting Belushi for Animal House, but seeing as how it's one of the best reviewed movies of the year and a box office success, it might surprise in some degree (may a screenplay nod?). Again, way-out-of-left-field and probably totally unlikely, but it'd be cool.

Capote looks great, but does it really have a high enough profile to propel it later on? If it weren't for CHUD, I don't know if I'd even know it was already out.

I'm wondering how The Weather Man will turn out. I think the movie looks great, and it was delayed so it could be fresh on voter's minds, but does it really have the push? Maybe Michael Caine for supporting, since the Academy loves him.

Jarhead seems destined to be an Academy darling. It just looks like it's firing on all cylinders (the trailer really got me excited), and this seems to be the year for films to get topical. Good Night and Good Luck has incredible buzz, so I think Clooney 's going to get a nod in at least the screenwriting category. He'll probably get a supporting nod, or one for actor in Syrania, or hey, maybe both. There's also the director's category to consider--this might be the year for George to go ahead and turn into a youthful version of Clint Eastwood.

My bet? Jack Black for King Kong. Not joking.

Out of left field: MURDERBALL as potential Best Picture nom? Could happen.

Other Best Pictures: the only one open now that I see as a guaranteed nom is GOOD NIGHT.

Maybe CAPOTE, but I expect that to be squeezed into other categories.

I don't think HISTORY is out of the question, but it would be more of a surprise than MUDERBALL. Maria Bello and the Best Adapted Screenplay category are it's best chances, though in Adapted Screenplay I think it would probably lose to CAPOTE.

If it's the same film I saw a year ago, it's very not good. It's awkward and ungainly and tries to be too many things.

Russ is right. And Michael Caine's "American" accent is weird as fuck.

Speaking of documentaries... what are the calls? The Aristocrats? Murderball? March of the Penguins?

William Hurt is fully deserving of a Best Supporting Actor nomination for A History Of Violence. I don't think Jack Black sneaking the same for Kong is a particularly shocking notion, either. On the other hand, Carrell's night will come at the Globes. He's not getting anywhere near Oscar night. Straitharn Vs. PSH will be the big battle of the evening, I think. Cinderella Man will be the Seabiscuit/Finding Neverland rudderless Best Picture nom of the year.

jeff daniels for the squid and the whale. he's fantastic and has some great buzz too. i imagine itll be considered a supporting role.

or perhaps Grizzly Man? I've been wanting to see some of these for awhile now, but I guess I'll have to wait for dvd. Which are the front-runners?

Forgot about Grizzly Man. Good call.

Has Herzog ever had a doc nominated before?

There was some talk around the middle of the summer about the Academy wanting to recognize both Sin City and Episode III in some sort of special visual achievement award (not to be confused with Special Effects.....though, I have the distinct feeling that race is gonna come down to Kong, Episode III, and Goblet of Fire), but both films being ineligible for the traditional cinemetography award because it was mostly virtual. I'm wondering if they'll actually go through with it. They should: both films deserve it.

The animated category: Spirited Away got the nomination even though it came out in Japan a full year before it did here. There's no reason Howl's Moving Castle shouldn't get that third nomination.

Of course, the Academy is still notoriously ignorant when it comes to animation, and I wouldn't be the least bit surprised if either Wallace and Gromit, Corpse Bride, or Howl's got the shaft in favor of Chicken Little or Robots.

Don't discount War of the Worlds for visual effects. Some of the best integration of live action and CGI I've ever seen, and in service to the story. I also expect sound nominations for WOTW as well, and if the field doesn't get too strong, don't be surprised to see Dakota Fanning with a Supporting Actress nod -- there was a ton of buzz about her when the film opened, and a weak field could let her slip in there.

As for animation, yeah, Corpse Bride and W&G are locks. The third spot depends on how well Chicken Little is received -- if it hits big, it gets it, otherwise, I see them running for the safety of Madagascar. Regardless, I think W&G will take it -- Bride's story was just too weak, although the animation is astonishing.

I wonder how Walk the Line will fare -- they heaped a bunch of honors an a musical biopic last year, and the Academy may be reluctant to do so again.

And unless we get Always Spielberg, Munich should be a lock for a ton of noms.

I'm sure Penguins will be the favored nominee, but Murderball or Grizzly Man could make an upset.

It's in the realm of possibility, but still unlikely. Cronenburg is the only horror director who garners some respect from the academy.

That didn't stop RAY.

At this point, based solely on pedigree, I think the contenders for Best Picture are MATCH POINT, THE PRODUCERS, MEMOIRS OF A GEISHA, WALK THE LINE, and MUNICH.

The criminally overlooked films will probably be GOOD NIGHT AND GOOD LUCK, and SYRIANA.

As for Best Animated Film, it's a good year in the sense that two of the nominated films will be stop-motion (I love that style) and then the third nominee will probably be MADAGASCAR because that's what happens when Pixar doesn't come out with a film. CHICKEN LITTLE has a snowball's chance as it looks both idiotic and the animation looks like it's from 1995.

I'd also be pretty surprised if MARCHING OF THE PENGUINS didn't get a nomination for Best Documentary.

I've mentioned it before, but I think the guy who plays Said in PARADISE NOW could get shoved in with the Best Actor nominees, a la MARIA FULL OF GRACE girl last year. I don't know that MARCH OF THE PENGUINS will get the award, I think Grizzly Man should, but I'm just happy to have seen most of the "big" documentaries this year (I missed MURDERBALL).

GEISHA, WALK THE LINE and MUNICH are all strong possiblities, but I don't see THE PRODUCERS making a significant splash outside of the musical-fan circuit. I'm sure it'll be funny as Hell, but the Academy's rep got burned somewhat with all the CHICAGO love in 2003. Plus, outside of the Broadway plaudits, it hasn't got much cinematic cache. Stroman's never directed before, has she?

And as for MATCH POINT....well, the buzz is strong and all, but MELINDA AND MELINDA had a similar, albeit sligtly less heralded, pre-release pattern, and that all but vanished from awards contention. After the doldrums of the 90s I tihnk it's gonna take a comeback of Lazarus proportions for the Oscars to take notice of Woody again.

I also think GOOD NIGHT has a stronger chance of success than you may think. SYRIANA's gonna suffer with all that tiresomely relevent oil talk, but McCarthyism's reared its ugly headin Hollywood-sometimes even at the awards themselves-enough to be considered a golden topic. The only thing going against it is Clooney, and I tihnk the Academy are more fond of him than people suspect.

You know, because Two Towers was nominated, and Chicago was totally just for chicks anyway.

I don't think you burn your rep when you give Best Picture to a film that made $170 million stateside. Also, in the Academy's history, eight musicals won Best Picture before Chicago.

With enough pushing, I think it can force some nominations. Even though I hear the final film is kind of weak, you have to remember that this is a work that earned a shitload of Tony Awards. Cred + Ad Blitz = Nominations.

I was thinking more of THE PIANIST, or GANGS OF NEW YORK. In my personal opinion both were more interesting and layered films than CHICAGO, which just felt kinda...flat. It's enjoyable and all, but I wouldn't put it on the Best Picture pedestal. And maybe I'm misreading the mood across the pond. In England, amongst film mags, TV shows and fans, CHICAGO's kinda looked down upon as a pretty unworthy and flimsy Best Picture winner. I'm not trying to be a snob or anything, that's just the general feeling towards CHICAGO from the critical community over here. If it's regarded differently in the States then so be it.

Plus, getting old widower Mel Brooks on stage to accept an award is television GOLD.

So THE PRODUCERS probably won't be winning any BAFTAs then.

WALK THE LINE is a much better film than RAY, but the performance that's close to Foxx is Reese, and she's not even in the same ballpark.

Don't get me wrong -- Phoenix is good. But he's not blind.

If RAY had only picked up a nomination for Best Actor (which would have been the correct thing to do), then I'd agree. But since it picked up six nominations, I think people were showing it love because it was about Ray Charles, not because the film was particularly any good. Johnny Cash may be able to see, but he's a music legend and God forbid you not honor one of those.

I’m sure with Rob Marshall aboard, Memoirs of a Geisha will look and sound fantastic. That said, after recently finishing the novel I can’t see it scooping best picture without some pretty drastic changes.

Probably not-but then that may end up having more to do with their incessant need to award whichever British film is doing the rounds at that time (see Mike Leigh winning Best Director for VERA DRAKE this year).

So is the heat for Terrence Howard pretty much all gone?

Unless Tom Cruise steps in as the last geisha, I think the film will will snag a Best Picture nomination if Zhang ZiYi gets enough acclaim for her performance. As seen in the trailer and by Marshall's previous work with Chicago, it will probably pick up quite a few production nominations, specifically costumes, make-up, and art direction.

I don't think it's so much a loss of heat for Howard as much as a stigma for The Thin Red Line being painfully boring. I think folks are expecting the same thing, just with early America.