Hot Stove Baseball 2005/06 - Page 2

The Sox aren't going to offer less for Konerko now that they have Thome. Their offers will be the same. I don't think it affects where he goes, either way. If he was going to get 5 years 75 million from someone, the Sox weren't going to sign him even if they had the Royal's payroll.

Apparently, the SOX sent the Phillies money. 22 million. I have to imagine that's what the Phils are going to pay in Thome's salary. It looks like it was either pay Thome everything, or give up top notch pitching. I'm glad they're willing to spend.

Point... missed.

See, it wasn't the Giants who just gave him 11 million dollars after using him up...

I heard a rumor that the Cub are also close to signing Bill Simas and Jim Parque.

the phillies sent the sox money. i'm guessing you just mixed up your wording.

No, I actually thought that. I'm a good reader.

Anyways, the Sox did send two pretty good pitching prospects in the deal as well. We'll see at the end of the year if it was a good deal.

The Cubs have much bigger problems than overpaying for 2 solid but older relievers can fix. Like at least 2 outfield spots, a generally dysfunctional batting order, an aging Maddux, and who knows what out of Wood.

Furcal is a good player, especially compared to what the Cubs put in the leadoff spot last year, but he's destined to get overpaid. A career (and 2005) OBP of .348 is good, but hardly spectacular for a leadoff man. Same for centerfield. Pierre is decent, but he could put up a .680 OPS with a serious lack of power, and doesn't appear to be able to take advantage of the short power alleys in Wrigley. Again, an improvement over 2005, but he might be the worst CFer in the division, depending on where the Pirates play Bay.

Apparently, one of the rumors going around is Overbay going to Boston for Clement, which would give the Brewers 5 solid starters. Apparently Washburn has also expressed interest in coming to the Brewers as a free agent, which appears to be a fallback option for the Brewers. If they pick up one of them, I think Houston, Chicago, and Milwaukee are going to be very competitive with one another.

St. Louis is probably still the class of the division, but other than Rolen I think most of their starters are likely to be the same or worse. Certainly, it's tough to imagine Pujols being any better. And, let's face it, it's tough to maintain a level of 100 wins. 2006 should be an interesting year in the NL Central and the top 4 teams probably could win the NL West.

looks like the jays got bj ryan. they had to overpay for him though because all the players in baseball probably think toronto is in ethiopia.

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=2236893

Man, I don't know. He looked good last year but he's only had two good seasons in his career. Jays are pouring a lot of money into him.

agreed. there's a pretty good chance that he could very well be one of the better closers in baseball for the next 5 years but i don't like throwing 10 mil a year on some guy that has only done it for a season. first the raiders pay an unproven running back money that shaun alexander and edge would only dream of getting and now this.

this should drive up wagner's price even more.

BJ ryan had a very good year in 2003 and followed those up with two excellent years, even though he was setting up for an inferior pitcher in 2004. His strikeout rates are actually better than Wagner, and he's much younger.

It's not that bad of a signing.

Edit: Not to mention BJ ryan was regularly facing the Yankees and Red Sox, while Wagner had the pleasure of closing games against the Nationals, Mets and Marlins.

Sure, but its Mariano Rivera. I certainly wouldn't mind him on the Mets if the only sacrifice would be paying him $5 million a year more than they're planning on paying for Billy Wagner.

Who was Billy Wagner closing against?

Oh yeah, the Braves, Marlins, Nationals, and Mets, all teams with winning records, in playoff contention all year, and much better than Toronto and those pesky Devil Rays. Every pitch Wagner threw in the 8th and 9th meant something. B.J. Ryan did not throw a meaningful pitch after August 1st.

Stats are nice, but place them in the proper context.

I did. I was talking about how facing teams with high powered offenses in the american league tend to inflate your ERA more than facing teams with hitters like Jose Reyes, Christian Guzman or Alex Gonzalez.

I, like many other people, do not believe it takes any kind of special mentality to be a closer. Is it really that much more stressful to face Troy Glaus in the 9th inning than the 7th inning?

Even if they were a closer away they spent too much money. No closer is worth that much, not even Rivera.

And is there any reason to believe that BJ Ryan is one of the rare cases where an otherwise brilliant pitcher faulters in the nineth inning due to "pressure"?

But there is a difference between the pressure of a pennant race or the pressure of keeping your team from losing 50 of its last 80 games. Wagner pitched in a stadium that should be in Williamsport; every game is against a high powered offense.

Don't get me wrong, I think B.J. Ryan is a very good closer. I really don't care what me makes, and this past year proved that he can hack it with anyone, but there are the top tier closers (Gagne, Wagner, Rivera, Hoffman) vs the second tier (Cordova, Percival, Ryan, and a whole host of others that are capable of saving 40 a year, but I probably wouldn't trust them to save the big game.

I think this money takes into account Canada, taxation, and the fact that Toronto hasn't been the best baseball town in 10 years and needs to be awakened. Signing Burnett and B.J. Ryan wouldn't hurt. The team isn't too far off. They do need a big bat, and they already have an ace.

he's only done it as a closer for one year. he should be one of the better closers for the next few years but he's not worth anywhere near $10 mil a year. maybe something like 7 but that's even being generous.

no it's mariano rivera NEW YORK YANKEE. if he was playing his entire career in texas or san diego he wouldn't be as loved as he is. he's easily one of the best closers of the past 10 years but gagne, hoffman and wagner have been every bit as good as him. it's not at a point where rivera is worth 5 mil a year more then them. if any one of them were wearing the pinstripes they'd be doing the same exact thing as he has. you can't even bring up how clutch he was in the post season anymore. he is the guy who's sucked it up his last few try's.

this coming from the guy who is all giddy that the cubs won the scott eyre sweepstakes. it doesn't matter how much money they spent or wasted on ryan he definitely makes the jays a stranger team. they just could've used the money more wisely

there's been rampant rumors about the jays trading for kevin mench. this would be a pretty decent move. i've been hearing batista would go to texas. they're also talking to the brewers about overbay but they'd want dustin mcgowan. the jays aren't willing to give him up. i want nothing to do with overbay. he'd be the same type of guy they already have. he doesn't have enough pop for a 1st baseman.

It probably would be wise for the Blue Jays to trade for a bat because it would be cheaper. Adam Dunn is available. Overbay doesn't provide the power that the team needs. He is a good player, but the Jay's need someone that can provide 35-40 HR a year, 115 RBi's. I know that they were talking with the Phillies for Abreu at the manager's meetings, and I'm sure Abreu is still available. If you have a young catcher, the Phillies would probably do it.

The Sox and the Yankees are not to far ahead of the Jays. Both teams are deeply flawed, but the Sox are doing a good job of rebuilding their team with young position players. If there was any year to come out of nowhere, this is the year.

Come on, Anya, he's right. Baseball players don't get nervous or fail under pressure. How could you think such a thing?

I'm sure Brad Lidge didn't let it get to him after Pujols hit that game winning home run in game 5. I'm sure it was just a series of unfortunate events that led to him blowing every lead or tie in the World Series.

If you're being sarcastic, it's too bad, because you're right. The postseason is a crapshoot, even Joe Torre admits that.

Baseball players that get nervous under pressure tend to get nervous in the minor leagues and never make it to the majors.

Edit: I take that back, players that can't deal with being nervous tend not to make it to the majors.

well it does effect some players. anya already mentioned hawkins as an example. some players are good middle relievers or setup men but when they try closing they choke.

i read somewhere he's looking for a 7 year contract. good luck on that.

I could see him getting 3 years 27 million, but not from the Red Sox. What team wants a 32-33 y.o. centerfielder that will be a DH in 3 years? He really can hit, but a centerfielder with no arm (which, i know, is not a prerequisite to starting in center) and will probably lose a step starting next year is a tough call.

Who is going to be traded this offseason is a big question. Dunn, Glaus, Vasquez, Sheffield (???), Abreu, Burrell, Zito, Griffey, Blalock (who wouldn't want him???), or Jason Schmidt.

Finally, returning to pressure, Joe Torre saying that the post-season is a crap shoot rings a bit of an excuse. He would not have made that statement from 1996 to 2000, when his team was vastly superior to any other team in the playoffs. Now that his team is no longer the most dominant, does not have the starting pitching of the other contenders, and lacks ANY team defense, makes the playoffs a crap shoot. His team loses because the other team was better (2001-Diamondbacks, 2002-Angels, 2003-Marlins, 2004-Red Sox, 2005-Angels).

Pressure kicks in with every type of athlete. A soccer player missing a PK by a mile, a basketball player missing crucial foul shots at the end of the game, a golfer missing a key 5 footer on the 18th, etc. Pressure exists and even professionals fall to it from time to time.

I am being sarcastic and it is not "too bad." I do not believe the post-season is a crap shoot. I don't care what Joe Torre admits. He admits it now when his team is not as good as it was 5 years ago. Would he say the post-season was a crap shoot from 1996 to 2000 when his team dominated and was a vastly superior team than anyone else in MLB? It sounds like an excuse for not winning over the past five years.

The team with the best pitching and defense USUALLY wins the World Series. The only team that won the WS without great starting pitching was the 2002 Angels, but they had they had an amazing bullpen and the hottest bats in the playoffs. There was nothing lucky about the teams that win, unless you consider better pitching and playing defense as a crap shoot.

I do not understand how people think Pressure does not bother MLB players (or any athletes). Some players make it to the majors without ever having to deal with adversity. Then (RICK ANKIEL) they fold. Or, they are a stud reliever until (BK KIM, BRAD LIDGE) they hit a speed bump. Others are great set up men, but can't be closers (MOTA, HAWKINS).

MLB players are not superhuman. You can see evidence of it in every sport. A soccer player missing a Penalty Kick. A basketball player missing the key foul shots late in the 4th. A hockey player making a stupid pass. A golfer missing an easy putt on the 18th. I closer has that pressure, but a set up man does not.

Johnny Damon: Whoever it is, I hope they do not give him more than 3 years. He is still hitting, but his body has already broken down. He still has his speed, but no arm. If he gets 5 years he will be another Bernie Williams. I doubt the Sox wiill resign him unless its in the 7mil a year range.

well i guess the red sox aren't going to sign him. some team will offer him more then $7 mil a year.

Alright, fine. The best team always wins in the playoffs. The best team is always the one that has great pitching and defense, the teams that play the game the right way. Pressure has more to do with outcomes than sheer luck (IN BASEBALL). Tim McCarver isn't an idiot.

The Mets sure are trying to make their run, and I sure hope they do, because they've mortgaged their future for it.

How many games does Murton sit while Mabry starts? I'm thinking at least 40. Dusty wouldn't be Dusty otherwise.

Coming to the party late, but listening to the talk coming out of TO, it sounds like it's the early 90s again. Shell out the $$ for one big free agent and hope others follow suit. The latest has them really pursuing Brian Giles to be the big bat.

The best part about the Ryan signing is that it frees up the front office to actually do something with Miguel Batista. He's not the hot property he once was that could get you something useful on his own, but he might be able to push a deal over the top. They still need a 1B, a big bopper to protect Vernon Wells and give them some oomph in the middle of the lineup. A lineup filled with .275-15-80 guys might win in the NL, but not in the AL.

they have a 5 year, $55 mil offer on the table to giles. too many years again. giles is the guy i want the jays to sign the most but i'd really love a 3 year deal and i could live with 4 years. giles is easily one of the most underrated players of our time but signing a 34 year old player to a 5 year contract is insane. i do think he could be one of those players like a steve finley who could play until his late 30's though. all premature talk at the moment. he may not even sign.

That isn't really true anymore...

The Yankees are looking at signing Farnsworth for 3/$15-18. Not a bad deal, he'd be a decent set-up man, a step up on Tom Gordon, and a lot cheaper than Ryan.

Konerko is going to be staying in Chicago. It's pretty awesome to be a Sox fan about now.

i wouldn't let farnsworth pitch for me even if he didn't cost me a penny. everytime he comes into a game it's a disaster waiting to happen.

jp ricciardi has flatly debunked the 5 year deal the jays supposedly offered giles. he said "no, that's way off. we have an offer but it's not for five years. we wouldn't do that on giles." good to hear that. i'm guessing it's more in the 4 year, $45 mil range. he said they should know by friday if he's going to sign or not and he predicts the chances are 50/50. sign the damn deal giles!

No Konerko in Los Angeles of Anaheim. I'm sort of sad but feel better knowing that we'll put the money elsewhere...hopefully in more than one contract that wont last more than half a decade.

I have to say I'm quite happy having Konerko and Thome in the Sox lineup for 2006.

This is a good year to be building for the future. These FA contracts are all insane. If I was a GM I would not touch these 32-34 year olds wanting a five year contract for ten mil per. That is absolutely nuts.

And closers. I think Billy Beane is right. You can make your own closer through a little trial and error. And pay him 500,000 a year for three years. And then move on to the next one. Trade for a closer in the middle of the year if you have to (there;s always 4-5 teams that are out of it who are willing to trade their closer for prospects); don't sign one for 4-5 years and ridiculous money.

I think GM's need more training.

I read Damon wanted a 7-year deal, just like Bernie got back in the day. That guy's hit too many outfield walls running.

he he.