2006/07 MLB Offseason thread

Could the Yankees and the rest of MLB just drop Gary Sheffield like a hot potato? I don't see how Bud Selig can't fine someone for threatening to play poorly for the team they might be traded to.

Daisuke Matsuzaka will probably end up in Seattle, I think. They are in dire need of starting pitching right now, and he'd fit in perfectly (especially with Ichiro and Kenji Johjima doing very well there.) They have Washburn and Felix Hernandez already in the rotation for '07 with either Jake Woods or Cha Seung Baek also making it, so they'll be shopping this winter.

Gary Matthews, Jr. is going to be demanding some big bucks this offseason, so it'll be interesting to see where he lands.

To be honest, until the Yankees do anything else with their pitching staff, imagining Daisuke Matsuzaka in anything but pinstripes following a blind bidding war strikes me as wishful thinking.

On to the Mets, a team that appears to be lowering expectations publicly, even though everybody knows they're desperate for some starting pitching. The entire Met starting rotation is up in the air for Christ's sake. Tom Glavine might be moving back to Atlanta, Pedro Martinez is out until the All-Star break, and both El Duque and Steve Trachsel (good riddance) are now free agents.

Not to mention the fact that Met brass appears to have soured on Lastings Milledge, along with Cliff Floyd being a free agent (not that he was ever healthy enough to play with any sort of frequency) there may very well be a hole they'll have to expect Endy Chavez to fill in full-time.

A rotation with that many question marks?

A team with Endy Chavez and Shawn Green at the corners?

If the Mets want to hold together what was the class of the National League for most of the season, they're going to have to address these issues somehow, and not all of them can be done so through internal promotion.

I am hoping they go hard after Zito Monk.

They desperately need a durable, well above league average starter, and Barry Zito fits that to a T... but... Zito's a #2 that'll get #1 money, and I'm not so sure he's worth that.

The team that snags him is going to be shocked by the number of homeruns and walks their newfound frontline starter gives up.

What surprises me more than anything, though, is that if the Mets traded for Jason Schmidt at the deadline, they may very well have won the World Series. I actually didn't like that potential deal at the time because I didn't think anybody had a chance against the Yankees this year, shows me, eh?

The Mets are on the cusp, they need an ace, and the only potential aces on the market are Matsuzaka and Schmidt. If this were any other year, I'd be all for signing Zito and waiting for Humber and Pelfrey to develop, but they're a frontline starter and Soriano away from a guaranteed trip to the World Series.

I agree they are going to have to overpay for Zito. The way I look at it though they can afford it and hell its not my money so I dont really care. I just want them to get a ring again in my lifetime.

I didnt even know Schmidt was available if so they should make a run at him as well. I think he is a bigger injury risk though. He is in his early 30's and he has had some arm trouble over the years, plus they will have to pay up the ass for him too.

To be honest, I expect Zito to receive a bigger contract than Schmidt, mostly due to him receiving a longer contract.

This is one of the worst free agent classes I've ever seen. To get anyone good, you're going to have to overpay.

Matsuzaka, Zito, Schmidt, Soriano, Carlos Lee, Jim Edmonds, and Aramis Ramirez are really the cream of the crop. And, honestly, they all have some caveats against them. Schmidt and Edmonds are old. Soriano and Lee are going to be old at the end of the contracts plus Lee is pretty dreadful on defense (so is Soriano at 2B). Ramirez won't be old, but he definitely has a reputation for loafing. Zito gives up an awful lot of HRs and walks. And Matsuzaka hasn't pitched an inning in MLB.

The trade market might be more interesting than the free agent market.

Certainly that's where I see the Brewers being active, although they may pick up a free agent reliever or two, shop around for a centerfielder, and try to unload some of their excess outfielders like Mench, Clark, and Jenkins.

That sounds odd, for some reason I keep thinking this is one of the best in recent years... the arms alone.

I don't get that at all. There's always a handful of good players in free agency.

Zito is the only pitcher who you can really say is young and reliably good. Matsuzaka might be good as well, but he's still something of a gamble. Schmidt is good, but getting up there in years. I suppose you can throw in Suppan as well. Pretty much every other pitcher in the class has performance, age, or injury concerns. Jeff Weaver has been nothing if not inconsistent. Glavine and Maddux aren't young anymore.

As far as position players go, there's not one that's as well rounded as Beltran or as dominant as Manny Ramirez, ARod, Pujols, Ortiz, etc. Well, noone other than Bonds, but that's a whole other issue.

Nor is there much for fallback alternatives. You don't get ARam, the next best third baseman may be Aubrey Huff (if you're willing to accept bad defense).

Mets' mission: TRADE MILLEDGE.

Thats what I keep getting, but if they really are planning on signing a guy like Moises Alou, I don't see how they could in good conscious.

So why does NYC loathe Milledge? A year ago this time he was untouchable, now they're looking to dump him somewhere?

And yet another reason why you don't hesitate to trade prospects. Weren't there a number of good players they didn't trade for because they wouldn't let him go? I seem to recall that they probably could have had Zito last offseason if they'd included him in the package.

Your right GFC. I would trade prospects anyday of the week for established good players as well. Prospects only turn out to live up to expectations maybe 30 percent of the time.

I think Mets fans and the Mets front office in general have soured on Miledge a little bit because of his attitude. He came up this year and kind of acted like he owned the league before he did shit. I also feel the Mets were hesitant last year to let one of their big prospects go i.e Miledge or Pelfrey because of how bad they got burned in the Kazmir deal a few seasons back. The differance is they were gettting a guy like Zito or Willis back in return as opposed to Victor fucking Zambrano.

To be honest, I have no idea, and it's not necessarily open loathing... but theres been a steady stream of knocks on his character, from both players and officials (anonymously), in the papers.

Nothing about his on the field production, but it feels like they're trying to soften the blow publicly if a trade is imminent.

Not only has Milledge not impressed yet when he's been called-up, but he hasn't made friends with the older ballplayers yet. He comes in late repeatedly, wears GIGANTIC jewelery around his neck in the clubhouse, and is largely full of himself. He's made an awful first impression to his teammates and the coaching staff, and if you can deal him for a much, much-needed starting pitcher, then do it.

See, thats the thing, people get these impressions, but why? Because players and officials are being allowed to talk to the media about him, anonymously at least. Before these stories came out, the fans loved the kid for that curtain call, after that recent stream of negative press around the trade deadline? I see a lot more people reacting similarly.

To be honest, this feels like it has more to do with the Mets, as an organization, trying to paint the guy as a pariah to the media so that fans won't go crazy after a trade. Of course, similar tactics failed miserably when they did the same to Scott Kazmir. You know, his perceived arrogance, him not rubbing the veterans the right way, the whole nine yards. Course, it may have actually worked had the Mets traded him for, you know, someone that was good.

To be honest, though, I would have to see who they're getting back before I'd be fine with any deal involving Lastings Milledge. Hell, I didn't even mind trading Scott Kazmir, I just minded what they got in return.

All I'll say is this, you don't take trading young and cheap Major League ready talent lightly.

Why would the Mets bad mouth him before they trade him though. I would think they would talk him up as best as possible so they could get more in a trade. It's not a very good trading tactic "Here take this asshole off our hands. Oh by the way we want Dontrelle Willis though."

Seriously, how much damage do you think a few anonymous quotes can do to a top ten prospect's trade value?

And on the flip side, if hes the best guy ever, why are you trading him? If the guy is the whole package, five tools, awesome clubhouse presence, why the fuck are you shopping him around?

Especially when you're looking at starting Endy Chavez and Shawn Green in your outfield next season.

I think a few anomynous quotes can do alot of damage noone really wants a clubhouse problem especially if that guy is unproven. I also think they would shop a guy like you suggest around just on their desperate need for pitching. They really need a proven number 2 starter and I feel its harder to get a good pitcher than a good position player especially when the 2 pitchers the Mets were targetting are both under 30 years old. I think the Mets are more in win now attitude Pedro will be 35 next year so will Delgado they are two mian components of the team. So they should talk Miledge the hell up and get as much as they can.

I do agree with you though that with Floyd and Miledge gone they are weak at the corners, However pitching is there main need seeing their first 5 hitters match up with anyone in baseball. They should have sent Miledge away last year to pick up a top pitcher and they would probably be World Series champs right now.

If they do trade him this year I have confidence that they can pick up a decent corner outfielder that wont hurt them much at all. I would keep Chavez and cut ties with Green. At least Endy gives you speed and decent defense Green's best days were done 5 years ago.

If the Mets hold onto Milledge, they can just go out and sign a guy like Alou to a one year deal as a security blanket. If they deal Milledge, they'll have to pay out the ass for someone like Soriano or Lee, because they wont have a legitimate option at either corner until Fernando Martinez is ready.

I know it's New York, and money isn't always a concern, but if you can get away with paying $400,000 to a corner outfielder for the forseeable future, you shouldn't be so quick to look for another option.

That doesnt address the pitching problem though. Which is by far their biggest need which is what I hope they are trying to package Miledge for.

Also, I love it. Wheres the cries that Guillermo Mota raped their childhood? The guy got caught using performance enhancers! Wheres the tell all book? It's amazing how little people care about players using junk when theres a "system" in place, even if said system still can't test for HGH.

I guess that is all I wanted, though, MLB to be treated like the NFL, and it finally is. Nobody gives a shit about NFL players juicing to win Super Bowls, and, finally, nobody appears to care about MLB players juicing anymore either.

Of course it does, it frees up money over the next four-five years to spend on it.

Yeah I guess you are right it could free up some money for pitching. I just dont think the Mets being in New York even have that concern though.


Yeah its funny no one was says Boo about Mota getting caught. The only guy who gets incredible shit for roids is Bonds. Hell even when Clemons went through some accusations this past summer there wasnt half the firestorm and outrage that follows Bonds around.

I wish people would just admit people give Bonds more shit about it not because of records he is chasing but just because they hate his guts. Roger Clemens also has an assault on the record books and has had longevity like no other power pitcher except for Nolan Ryan, but do you see Books being wrote about him or 20 page articles in SI.

Anyways it doesnt really matter until they can test for HGH neither the NFL or MLB will never be clean. Well theres my roids rant for the offseason. Speaking of that though I wonder where Bonds will actually sign.

I can't imagine him playing anywhere but San Francisco at this point, but it sure would be great for his career if he could DH somewhere.

Bonds is just the poster boy, that's why people care so much about him. The thing is, people aren't going to freak out every single time anyone in the sports world gets caught with steroids. I mean, do you really expect people to put the same effort in their righteous indignation about steroids for average players as equally as they do the one man who has become the symbol for performance enhancing drugs in the sports world? Let's get serious.

It doesn't mean that people don't care. They just don't have the energy.

See, I don't necessarily agree with that, I mean, when a bunch of linemen on that Panthers team that went to the Super Bowl got caught using, it was a blip. That story came out well before the whole Bonds brew-haha(sp?), and nobody gave two shits about it.

The guise of a "strict" drug testing system is enough to placate most fans and the media.

I agree that people wont get all up in arms about average to below average players. That being said there really wasn't a huge deal about the Clemens allegations that thiere is for Bonds. No one can say Clemens is an average player hell he is arguably the greatest pitcher of the past 50 years or even all time.

Bonds was the poster boy long before that. Not to mention, they were linemen on Carolina. Offensive linemen barely exist publicly in the game of football. They represent the largest position group on the field and the fewest number of people in the HOF (outside of kickers). It may as well been a no-name center fielder on the Tigers. Also, people don't scream as much because they don't see linemen doing anything they weren't doing before. They weren't all of a sudden throwing defensive linemen over their heads, and they certainly weren't in danger of breaking one of America's great sports records. If a known juicer were to break the all-time rushing record, you'd see a lot of pissed off fans.

As for the Clemens thing, the media tried their best to make it a big deal, but there wasn't near the evidence that we have with Bonds (grand jury testimony). And again, this happened years after Bonds had become the focal point of the whole steroids fiasco. It was just another steroid story.

But don't give me this "I don't care because people don't care about it in football" bullshit. Even if people don't care about it in football (which they do and have done for 10x the years baseball has), that doesn't make it any more right in baseball. There's a lot of reasons why people get more upset about power hitters using steroids than they do other positions and players in other sports, and I don't think I need to explain that to anyone here.

Oh, I never cared about steroids to be honest. The only thing that bugged me was the NFL getting a free pass.

Now? It appears as though baseball has worked their PR mojo to the point that these stories are getting the same sort of apathy their NFL counterparts enjoy, and that's all I ever wanted.

You only cared that people didn't complain about it in the NFL? That's just weird. Besides, the NFL already went through this period.

I'd much rather people complain about neither.

If you don't care about steroids, WTF difference does it make that other people do?

Well, obviously fans aren't much a concern, it's more the heavy handed coverage.

Thats something thats incredibly hard to avoid as a fan of the sport.

Massive home runs hit by swollen players are hard to avoid, too, but you have no problem ignoring that.

The same way I, fans, and the media ignore them in the NBA, the NFL, and now, finally, in MLB.

Looking over the free agent class of hitters, someone is going to have to explain to me why Aramis Ramirez isn't talked about as the #1 hitter. Have writers become such roto heads that they're more worried about SBs than actual production?

Just a comparison between the perceived, top 3 hitters, Ramirez, Soriano, and Carlos Lee.

Aramis Ramirez
Age 28
OPS the last 3 years: .951, .926, .915
Plus: Plays an infield position where talent is scarce
Minus: Perceived as lazy

Alfonso Soriano
Age 30
OPS the last 3 years: .808, .821, .911
Plus: Can steal you 30+ bases at a good success rate
Minus: Is a butcher at 2B, LF isn't scarce for hitters

Carlos Lee
Age 30
OPS the last 3 years: .891, .811, .895
Plus: Can't really think of any, WYSIWYG
Minus: Bad defender, looks like he weighs 270 lbs., could be strictly a DH in a few years

I can understand the argument for Soriano, although his Texas years aren't anything special, but I think any team that would go harder after Carlos Lee than Aramis Ramirez is crazy. I think it's likely that Ramirez will resign with the Cubs, the Cubs don't really have much choice, but I think it's going to cost the Cubs plenty and keep them out of the market for another big stick.

I get that he wasn't hitting well in the first half, but I think there's somewhat of a selective memory going on with Ramirez. He put up a .956 OPS in the 2003 playoffs and an OPS over 1.000 in September/October 2004 when the rest of the Cubs were busy gagging away a playoff spot.

No doubt the guy has some flaws. He's no Pujols. But, he's the star hitter in the free agent market with the most positional value and who's also the youngest. If the Cubs let him get away, their already weak offense has a big hole to fill. It's not like the Cubs offense was anything special in 2005 with Lee having his career year. The Cubs really need to resign Ramirez and add another big bat. I've no idea how they're going to do that and fix the back of their rotation as well. Zambrano's a star, Rich Hill is very promising, and I suppose Prior could be healthy, although I wouldn't bet on it. Marshall, Marmol and Guzman don't do a whole lot for me though, especially since all three of them have poor BB:K ratios.

2004-2006 OPS

Player X
808
821
911

Player Y
820
893
890

Player X is Alfonso Soriano, Player Y is Pat Burrell.

Theres ample reason to think Alfonso Soriano will be paid far more than he's actually worth, you don't even have to get to the caliber of player Aramis Ramirez is to prove it.

Aramis is a pussy, doesn't run out anything, and is a pretty bad third baseman. Still, he's going to get huge money because of his stats. Frankly, I think the Cub are better without him. Use that money on a guy who can do more than just hit for a couple months out of the season.

Soriano is better than Burrell because he's fast and is actually a very good outfielder (lead the league in OF assists, mostly because his speed got him to balls baserunners didn't think he had a chance at). Also, Burrell's OPS came at a joke of a ballpark, while Soriano hit home runs in the toughest park in the league to do so.

Soriano is without a doubt the best all-around player on the FA market.

I don't know if I'd say "without a doubt" about Soriano. Those years in Texas, the best hitter's park in the AL, should factor into the equation somewhere, IMO, and they certainly make Soriano's case weaker. If nothing else, they bring up the issue of consistency. I wouldn't exactly be surprised by an .830 OPS for Soriano in 2007, which isn't worth $15 million in an outfielder.

Who's better? According to reports Carlos Lee is getting fatter by the day and will have to DH soon. Burrell plays in a joke of a park and has been a disappointment for most of his career. Ramirez is just fucking lazy and dumb as a brick - think of a second-tier Manny.

Soriano hits for power, steals bases and plays a surprisingly good outfield. His only negative is that he strikes out a lot. Well, that's what power hitters do. It's a no-brainer.

I'd point out the fact that Soriano has only passed 40 walks in a season once in his career and has a career .325 OBP as a big red flag to his game. A career best .351 OBP in a season is well below the elite hitters of baseball.

I'm not going to talk much about Soriano's defense. Certainly he's better than the Carlos Lee, Adam Dunn, and the like. I didn't get to see a lot of Soriano play this season, but he looked fine, although he did take some awkward routes as time. Small sample that I viewed though.

He's a good player though. But, like everyone else in this free agent class, he has flaws. And I really think teams that want to give him $15 million a year are taking a risk that he'll revert to his underwhelming Texas form in a non-contract year.

I'd hate to see what Pujols or Beltran would have pulled down in this free agent class.

For a hitter with as much power as he has, a .350 OBP is livable. Especially if he's stealing bases. Dunn may get on base a lot, but he's not moving much from first. When Soriano does get on base, he scares pitchers, and usually makes it further than first base.

No, he's not all World, but all-around, he's the best in this class.

Sure, Soriano actually has good range for a Left Fielder (of course, that's almost an insult in disguise), but you could just as easily attribute those assists to baserunners prone to challenging a guy learning a new position. Clearly he's a much better Left Fielder than Second Basemen (where he was one of the worst at the position), but one has to wonder how much anybody is willing to spend on defense in Left Field.

As for the other negatives, as EvilTwin noted, the reason his OPS is pedestrian year in and year out is the fact that he strikes out a ton and doesn't walk. 2006 was actually a breakout year for Soriano, as far as patience at the plate is concerned. Of course, a lot of that perceived patience is due to the lineup he was in, as teams intentionally walked (or pitched around) Soriano far more than at any other point during his career. In other words? I wouldn't rely on a .350 OBP from the guy unless the lineup he joins is equally as attrocious.

That just leaves Soriano's baserunning, and no, Stolen Bases aren't everything. Getting thrown out 41% of the time is not a good thing, I don't care how many bases he swiped. And while last season was especially bad for Soriano in this regard, his career SB/CS rate, though better than what he put up last year, still hovers around the breakeven point. The only aspect of baserunning that Soriano appears to be especially adept at is his ability to avoid GIDP, which is valuable, but hardly a huge selling point.

I've been afraid of Alfonso Soriano for quite some time, mostly because hes been rumored to come to the Mets for a good chunk of his career. But why? Well, guys that don't walk yet strike out a ton are the kind of guys that scream Juan Samuel to me. Of course, if he does come to the Mets, I'd cross my fingers and hope that his inevitable rapid decline comes afterr the Mets win the World Series.

If JD Drew opting out of three years, $33 million tells you one thing, its that guys like Soriano and Lee are going to make far more than anyone could have thought. Soriano signing a $100 million dollar contract wouldn't surprise me in the least at this point.

Also, for any team interested in either, Drew has to look like a solid alternative.