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RedSox bid $38-$45 MILLION to TALK to Matsuzaka

post #1 of 44
11/10/06 at 3:33pm
Thread Starter 
http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=2656687
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post #2 of 44
11/10/06 at 3:48pm
Thread Starter 
My thoughts going into this offseason was that Matsuzaka would cost, at most, as much as Barry Zito would net on the open market. If this report is true, that goes straight out the window.
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post #3 of 44
11/10/06 at 4:00pm
I'm insanely happy about this if true. I think this guy's going to be a stud...hopefully he's not worn down from excessive work. The Sox need pitching in the worst way, and no one currently on the market even comes close to Matsuzaka's potential. Plus, it's WELL worth the $40 million (or so) just to keep him out of a Yankee uniform.

Still, this is the Red Sox we're talking about. They'll probably pony up the $40 million to just talk, and then let him walk away.
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post #4 of 44
11/10/06 at 4:03pm
Thread Starter 
Thats the thing, this isn't a $45 million dollar deal, we're talking about a grand total of something approaching $100 million dollars.

You can't pay the Seibu Lions $45 million dollars and then turn around and offer a four year, $40 million dollar deal to Matsuzaka.
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post #5 of 44
11/10/06 at 4:06pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by Poulsonator
Plus, it's WELL worth the $40 million (or so) just to keep him out of a Yankee uniform.
Bingo! A refundable $40M for exclusive rights just to talk to a guy that's going to want a multi-year deal?
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post #6 of 44
11/10/06 at 4:06pm
Oh, it's going to be a huge $100 million deal or so. But it's only money. The Sox are a mint anyway. Like I said, the MOST important thing this can do is keep him out of a Yankee uniform. It's well worth the money just for that. If he turns out to be a stud, well then, it's on.
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post #7 of 44
11/10/06 at 4:09pm
That's a pretty sweet deal for the Lions to pick up $45 million just to open negotiations. I've got a Lions cap around somewhere, but it's pobably packed away.
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post #8 of 44
11/10/06 at 4:20pm
Thread Starter 
His slider is ridiculous, though I was a bit dissapointed by his velocity. Matsuzaka basically dropped his velocity down to 92-93 due to some arm issues a few years back, though the dip did lead to increased command.

Look at him as a younger — not young, younger — Pedro Martinez, a guy that throws low-mid 90s with excellent location, but can get it into the upper 90s when he needs to.

How this'll translate in the Major Leagues? I guess thats the gamble, but following this guy has taught me one thing, the Japanese couldn't give two shits about pitch counts.

In their national High School Baseball Tournament championship, Matsuzaka threw 250+ pitches to win a game, the next day? Played in the outfield and recorded the save, the day after that? Pitched a no-no to clinch it.
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post #9 of 44
11/10/06 at 4:38pm
Yeah, basically you pitch until your arm tears off, especially in high school.
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post #10 of 44
11/10/06 at 4:38pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by MoNkaholic
In their national High School Baseball Tournament championship, Matsuzaka threw 250+ pitches to win a game, the next day? Played in the outfield and recorded the save, the day after that? Pitched a no-no to clinch it.
Does this mean that he can get both the W and the save for his games? Can they bring in the closer...himself?

"Put that coffee down!! Coffee's for Matsuzaka only."
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post #11 of 44
11/10/06 at 5:11pm
Thread Starter 
I mean, the accomplishment is impressive, but I'd have to seriously look at his arm before going all the way.
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post #12 of 44
11/10/06 at 11:20pm
They should spend that money on some proven pitchers instead.

Still, must be nice to have that kind of "petty cash" laying around.
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post #13 of 44
11/11/06 at 12:23am
Talk about a desperation move by the BoSox.
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post #14 of 44
11/11/06 at 12:10pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by heLL pAso
Talk about a desperation move by the BoSox.
Hardly. Did you see this guy pitch in the WBC? Who out there, that is available, has more potential? Besides, it's only money. They haven't committed to anything yet AND if they do sign him, the Sox only have to give up cash. No prospects, so no chance for those prospects to turn out to be All-Stars (like EVERY single one we traded away last year alone).

Quote:
Originally Posted by ChunkyLover53
They should spend that money on some proven pitchers instead.
Like who?

Quote:
Originally Posted by ChunkyLover53
Still, must be nice to have that kind of "petty cash" laying around.
Not only are they the Red Sox, but they're a professional baseball team....they make more money than the mint in Denver.

It is a lot of money, but there's a lot of money given to teams to spend. The Yankees spend like mad and give their fans a team that's in the playoffs every year. I'm glad the Sox are doing this and I wish more teams would.

At the very least, I wish MLB teams were REQUIRED to spend a certain amount. Say something like a minimum of 85% of the alloted $130 million (or whatever it is) each team is "allowed" to spend.
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post #15 of 44
11/11/06 at 10:22pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by Poulsonator
Hardly. Did you see this guy pitch in the WBC? Who out there, that is available, has more potential? Besides, it's only money. They haven't committed to anything yet AND if they do sign him, the Sox only have to give up cash. No prospects, so no chance for those prospects to turn out to be All-Stars (like EVERY single one we traded away last year alone).
So what's every free agent signing never a sign of desperation because you don't give up player's? They only gave away money? "it's WELL worth the $40 million (or so) just to keep him out of a Yankee uniform"? Who is Matsuzaka gonna be? Nomo or Irabu? How about something in between like Contreras, suck for 3 years before finally getting good? Throwing $40 mil dollars before you even sign him is desperation. This guy shouldn't be making more money then Doc Halladay and Roy Oswalt because he pitched good in the WBC and a very inferior Japanese League.
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post #16 of 44
11/11/06 at 11:50pm
There are quite a few players that make more money than Doc and Oswalt that don't deserve it. It happens.

What if he (Matsuzaka) turns out to be as good as Roy or Doc? Will it be worth it then? What if he turns out to be good, but not super-good. We still get a good pitcher and hurt our biggest competition in the division by taking a good (but not super-good) pitcher away from them. Works for me.
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post #17 of 44
11/12/06 at 12:38am
It happens when guys signed contracts 3 years ago, not a few months ago. Oswalt just signed a big contract so there's not that many guys who make more money then him. The consensus throughout the league was the Astros overspent for him because they felt guilty for laying him out on the trade deadline. Halladay makes huge money too, which he's earned. Matsuzaka will probably get a contract worth his value but adding in $40 mil dollar is way overspending. I know the Red Sox are no longer the 2nd best team in their own division but I never thought Epstein would show this kind of desperation. What's next? Lugo for $13 mil a year?
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post #18 of 44
11/12/06 at 12:41am
There's a lot of money to spend this off-season. Everyone knew teams were going to overspend.
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post #19 of 44
11/12/06 at 12:47am
Actually I think it's impossible not to overspend in today's game, with the big name free agents anyways, but there are different levels to it.
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post #20 of 44
11/12/06 at 12:52am
Quote:
Originally Posted by heLL pAso
This guy shouldn't be making more money then Doc Halladay and Roy Oswalt because he pitched good in the WBC and a very inferior Japanese League.
If memory serves those "very inferior" players won the WBC this year.
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post #21 of 44
11/12/06 at 1:51am
That's like calling the Spanish basketball league better then the NBA. Atleast in the Olympics the Americans, for the most part, had their best players.
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post #22 of 44
11/12/06 at 2:54pm
Thread Starter 
The thing is heLL pAso, you'd have said the same about Ichiro Suzuki, and he hasn't disappointed. If RedSox management believes he projects out to be a frontline starter, theres hardly anything wrong with the amount of money they've throw at him.
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post #23 of 44
11/12/06 at 3:24pm
Nope, that didn't happen. The Mariners spent $27 mil total to net Ichiro. That wasn't all that earth shattering. The Sox are spending upwards to $45 mil just to talk to Matsuzaka. There's a huge difference between the two.
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post #24 of 44
11/12/06 at 3:46pm
Scary as it might be...I agree with heLL Paso. They money teams are spending on pitchers from outside leagues is ridiculous. Have any of them really worked out long term? Nomo was good for a few seasons before he decided that having an era in the 4.50 range was the place to be. Irabu was terrible. Contraras was crap until he got out of the New York microscope. Orlando Hernandez has been the closest thing to an unqualified success. Even his arm fell off after a few seasons.

Please keep in mind I'm not knocking foreign born players. What I am saying is, spending insane amounts on pitchers who have spent a good amount of time in foreign leagues is counter productive.
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post #25 of 44
11/12/06 at 4:43pm
Thread Starter 
Quote:
Originally Posted by kingcujoI
Scary as it might be...I agree with heLL Paso. They money teams are spending on pitchers from outside leagues is ridiculous. Have any of them really worked out long term? Nomo was good for a few seasons before he decided that having an era in the 4.50 range was the place to be.
People lumping Hideo Nomo with the likes of Hideki Irabu are drastically distorting his career path, and muddling the conversation. Nomo was an impressive talent, and the only true comp to Matsuzaka until a few things happened:

1) Nomo was never, physically, the pitcher he was purported to be due to significant arm surgery in 93-94.

2) Nomo never kept himself in shape.

Much of Nomo's Major League success can also be attributed to a rather unorthodox delivery, one that appeared to at least partially extend his effectiveness long after his stuff had left him.
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post #26 of 44
11/12/06 at 6:41pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by heLL pAso
That's like calling the Spanish basketball league better then the NBA. Atleast in the Olympics the Americans, for the most part, had their best players.
No it isn't. I merely said that "very inferior" is a sizable exaggeration.
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post #27 of 44
11/12/06 at 6:51pm
The Japanese league isn't very deep so saying it's inferior competition isn't even remotely an overexaggeration.
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post #28 of 44
11/13/06 at 5:06am
Thread Starter 
Quote:
Originally Posted by heLL pAso
The Japanese league isn't very deep so saying it's inferior competition isn't even remotely an overexaggeration.
But whats your point? You can judge players precisely by how well they perform against "inferior competition," in fact, Major League Baseball organizations do it all the time... it's called Minor League Baseball.

You don't think the Minnesota Twins had any idea how well Joe Mauer would perform in the Majors?
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post #29 of 44
11/13/06 at 1:59pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by MoNkaholic
But whats your point? You can judge players precisely by how well they perform against "inferior competition," in fact, Major League Baseball organizations do it all the time... it's called Minor League Baseball.

You don't think the Minnesota Twins had any idea how well Joe Mauer would perform in the Majors?
The minor leagues are dependent of the majors. Organizations monitor things like pitch counts and the developmental status of all of their players. The coach of the AA team has to pull the pitcher at X number of pitches, regardless of the situation. The manager of the Nippon/Cuban baseball team is under no such scrutiny.

We've supposedly been getting the best foreign league pitchers for the last decade or so, and none of them has been worth the money spent.

Of course the underlining thing about all of this is...it's hard to find a great pitcher from anywhere these days.
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post #30 of 44
11/13/06 at 3:36pm
Thread Starter 
Quote:
Originally Posted by kingcujoI
The minor leagues are dependent of the majors. Organizations monitor things like pitch counts and the developmental status of all of their players. The coach of the AA team has to pull the pitcher at X number of pitches, regardless of the situation. The manager of the Nippon/Cuban baseball team is under no such scrutiny.
Theres a great debate over the value of pitch counts, but rather than getting into that, here's some actual information on Matsuzaka and pitch counts:

Quote:
Originally Posted by Mike A.
What do we know about Matsuzaka’s crazy pitch counts? He threw in excess of 200 pitches more than once in his high school days. Every year some poor 17 year old is given the baseball equivalent of a waterboarding over here, in throwing 200-300 pitches in one day, and 1000 or more pitches over a week or so. I can’t say what bearing that kind of work will have on Matsuzaka’s future. To this point, it hasn’t affected him much at all. His ERA, WHIP, and K/BB ratio has improved so dramatically every year since his 22nd birthday that it’s hard to imagine those wistful boyhood days have much to do with his current ability. Early in his career he pitched upwards of 150-160 pitches a few times a year. He probably averaged around 120-125 pitches a game in the first half of his Seibu life. He has worked that number down to a Carlos Zambrano-esque 115 pitches a game in 2006, with only a handful of performances topping out at 130+.
If you're worried about his arm, you make sure he's not damaged goods. The RedSox bid doesn't mean they have to sign him, its refundable, and if Matsuzaka's arm throws up some red flags?

Walk away. It's just that simple.
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post #31 of 44
11/14/06 at 11:34pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by MoNkaholic
But whats your point? You can judge players precisely by how well they perform against "inferior competition," in fact, Major League Baseball organizations do it all the time... it's called Minor League Baseball.

You don't think the Minnesota Twins had any idea how well Joe Mauer would perform in the Majors?
You do realize that a lot of the top prospects in baseball end up amounting to nothing. It's a pretty damn low ratio of success.

$51.1 million!
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post #32 of 44
11/15/06 at 12:26am
Quote:
Originally Posted by heLL pAso
$51.1 million!
Wowzers! I wonder what the next-closest bid was. Probably $16 million.
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post #33 of 44
11/15/06 at 1:22am
I wonder if the other teams bids will eventually leak? And how many years will the Sox sign him for?
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post #34 of 44
11/15/06 at 3:19am
Thread Starter 
Three years, $30-$40 million dollars would be my guess. The RedSox have already broken the bank with the bid, and I actually don't believe Boras will hold them for ransom, especially when he knows a short contract gets his talent to true free agency sooner rather than later.
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post #35 of 44
11/15/06 at 5:34am
Like a talk radio host from my local KSPN station said, BoSox is stupid to put up so much money at this Japanese prospect. Even if Red Sox managed to outbid everyone and get Matsuzaka, they'd only get to keep him for 3 years, before arbitration, and Boras will probably get the Yanks to lure him away with outrageous contract. But I guess Red Sox is really that desperate and don't care about money, although they could've used that money to try to bid for free agents like Zito instead.
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post #36 of 44
11/15/06 at 10:27am
Quote:
Originally Posted by Anger Management
Like a talk radio host from my local KSPN station said, BoSox is stupid to put up so much money at this Japanese prospect. Even if Red Sox managed to outbid everyone and get Matsuzaka, they'd only get to keep him for 3 years, before arbitration, and Boras will probably get the Yanks to lure him away with outrageous contract. But I guess Red Sox is really that desperate and don't care about money, although they could've used that money to try to bid for free agents like Zito instead.
Once again, it's only money. Of course the Red Sox care about money, but they just happen to have more of it than any other team besides the Yankees. And they'll continue to make more. And more.

Starting pitching is at an all-time premium. This isn't desperation, this is business. Zito? No thanks. His numbers haven't been impressive in a while, and he's going to get a fat contract. I'd rather the Sox take their chances with Matsuzaka.
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post #37 of 44
11/15/06 at 12:56pm
Thread Starter 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Poulsonator
Starting pitching is at an all-time premium. This isn't desperation, this is business. Zito? No thanks. His numbers haven't been impressive in a while, and he's going to get a fat contract. I'd rather the Sox take their chances with Matsuzaka.
Thats the thing, the only potential ace in this crop of free agents is Daisuke Matsuzaka.
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post #38 of 44
11/15/06 at 1:19pm
I heard Jason Schmidt is pretty good.

Poulsonator, if it's only money then why did they let Damon walk? Why did they let the Yankees snag Abreu? DESPERATION! It's not the Yankees who they fear, it's 2nd place and the Toronto Blue Jays!
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post #39 of 44
11/15/06 at 1:30pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by heLL pAso
Poulsonator, if it's only money then why did they let Damon walk? Why did they let the Yankees snag Abreu? DESPERATION! It's not the Yankees who they fear, it's 2nd place and the Toronto Blue Jays!
The same reason they let go of Hanley Ramirez, Josh Bard, Cla Meridith, both Sanchezes, etc. They make personnel mistakes like every other team. I think this move is about need and blocking him from the Yanks.
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post #40 of 44
11/15/06 at 1:31pm
And yes, we do indeed have to fear the damn Blue Jays again.
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post #41 of 44
11/15/06 at 1:50pm
I really don't think the sole purpose was to block him from going to the Yankees but bidding as high as they did was certainly one of the major factors. They probably would have went around $40 mil if they thought the Yankees wouldn't go hard after him.

Here's some of the bids supposedly made for Matsuzaka.

Quote:
Originally Posted by John Heyman, Sports Illustrated
Coming off a disastrous second half by their standards, the Red Sox took the best step to ensure they don't miss the playoffs for a second straight season. You can't find one scout who's seen Matsuzaka and doesn't think he has No. 1 stuff. Which explains the stunning bids: the Mets bid about $39 million, the Yankees about $30 million (give or take a couple mil) and one other team was thought to bid in the 30s (my guess, Texas).
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post #42 of 44
11/15/06 at 8:13pm
Thread Starter 
Quote:
Originally Posted by heLL pAso
I heard Jason Schmidt is pretty good.
Honestly, signing Jason Schmidt to a long term contract would worry me. In the last few years Schmidt hasn't been that impressive, especially down the stretch. His strikeout rate is declining, and hes not exactly on the right side of the 30.

Of the available starting pitchers, I think hes got better stuff than Zito, but I'd feel better throwing money at Zito than a guy on the decline with a history of arm problems.
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post #43 of 44
11/16/06 at 1:26am
He didn't pitch that great in the '05 season. In the sandwich years between he struck out 430 batters with an ERA of approximately 3.40. How is that not impressive? His strikeout rates the past 2 years have declined from his '04 season (which was a career high) but they're actually above his career numbers and are still good compared it to the league. I don't see anybody complaining about Oswalt's declining rates. Schmidt didn't pitch as well in the 2nd half last year but that doesn't really prove anything. I wouldn't sign him to a 5 year contract (who would?) but definitely for 3 years at the right number. His history of injuries has been way overexaggerated as well. In the past 5 season's he's averaged 30 starts and 200 innings (between 29 and 32 starts every year). That's pretty good. All it seems teams want is someone to eat innings anyways. He may not be the awesome pitcher he was during the 2002-04 seasons but he is still good. I wouldn't put him in the Matt Morris category quite yet. He probably has another 2 or maybe even 3 good years left in him.
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post #44 of 44
11/16/06 at 4:43am
Thread Starter 
Oh, I'm not saying he's trash, but when I say a potential ace, I don't think Schmidt is one anymore. The only guy out there that could be, in my mind, is Matsuzaka.

As for the overblown arm problems, it does make me worry when he finishes seasons as poorly as he has in recent years.
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