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CHUD NUMBERS: Box Office Discussion Thread

post #1 of 23230
Thread Starter 

The other box office thread has been closed. Please use this one to discuss/comment.

Andre's latest column

http://chud.com/news/9740

post #2 of 23230
Dellamonte?
post #3 of 23230
Thread Starter 
You mean Andre is not a pineapple?
post #4 of 23230


Maybe he is. But that's actually Del Monte.
post #5 of 23230
Thread Starter 
eh, I'm going to bed
post #6 of 23230
Finally a place to share my disgust for this shit Willis, Berry, and Ribisi are cashing it. Every time I hear the commercial, I cringe when Voice Over Guy says claims this movie has 'the perfect twist'. And I bet as much money as Dre is prediction this will pull in over the weekend that the twist included Ribisi turning out to be the bad guy.
post #7 of 23230
I wish Willis, Berri, and Ribisi were making "Perfect Strangers."

Willis would make a killer Balki.
post #8 of 23230
Quote:
Originally Posted by Zollicoffer
Dre is prediction this will pull in over the weekend that the twist included Ribisi turning out to be the bad guy.
That actually seemed to be in the trailer. I'm wondering if they go all Berry is the bad guy. Realistically, all I care about is who is getting nekkid, cause that's the only thing that would make me watch it. I don't even feel that's sexist, because these films exist for skin. And who wants a classed up version of a Shannon Tweed movies sans nipples?
post #9 of 23230
post #10 of 23230
I guess the chances of Grindhouse going bigger this weekend and climbing the charts a la My Big Fat Greek Wedding are nil?
post #11 of 23230
I charted it with about a 35% fall off. Realistically, 50% is probably closer to the truth, and a 60% or 70% fall off isn't out of the question.
post #12 of 23230
Quote:
Originally Posted by Andre Dellamorte
And who wants a classed up version of a Shannon Tweed movies sans nipples?
I'm just hoping for a little brown-eye.
post #13 of 23230
Quote:
Originally Posted by MikeShaynePI
I wish Willis, Berri, and Ribisi were making "Perfect Strangers."

Willis would make a killer Balki.
Don't be ridiculous.
post #14 of 23230
Quote:
Originally Posted by bobblemonkey
Don't be ridiculous.
Standing tall! on the wings of my dream!!!!
post #15 of 23230
Quote:
Originally Posted by Andre Dellamorte
With a cast like that it's hard to tell if this is getting dumped because it's bad, or because these aren't names that launch an interesting hard-sell that will likely get better European distribution.
It was released in Europe last year.
post #16 of 23230
You are being very nice with that Grindhouse pick. That thing could drop like a rock this week.
post #17 of 23230
I don't see Disturbia making more than 10M (maybe even getting beat by Are we done). But thats why I aint no BO mojo. I also agree with the Grindhouse not reaching 7m, I think its gonna be disatrously lower, like 3-4m.

Now to put on my necklace of Milla Jovovichs toenail clippings and chant.
post #18 of 23230
I think you're being generous with ATHF. I predict it opens at number 9.
post #19 of 23230
Aqua Teen is opening in too few theaters. Count on $4 million max.
post #20 of 23230
Quote:
Originally Posted by Vegan Dracula
I don't see Disturbia making more than 10M (maybe even getting beat by Are we done).
Dusturbia is far and away at the head of the new pack of films.
post #21 of 23230
I guess we'll see come Sunday, but Im betting on Perfect Stranger and Pathfinder beating Disturbia out. Shia Labouef is still "that kid from some movie", but the teen audience might snap for it. I think a lot of people will fall for the promise of some Halle Berry skin or an epic adventure over a teen thriller.

I'll probably be wrong, but good article for the weekly predictions in any case.
post #22 of 23230
I wouldn't be surprised if ATHF didn't even crack the top 10. I live in the San Fernando Valley which is pretty well populated with movie theaters, and I just popped my zipcode in to see where this is playing. Besides some theater I've never heard of in Van Nuys (where I wouldn't go see a movie anyways) I would have to drive all the way to Hollywood to see this. Boston probably has it in more theaters (and they'll probably call the bomb squad during every screening. "It's Ignignokt! AHHH!!! Terrorists!") Guess I'll wait for the DVD.
post #23 of 23230
There's no way in hell ATHF breaks the top ten.
post #24 of 23230
I think anybody who is expecting "Grindhouse" to have some kind of box office miricle this weekend is living in fantasy land.
Frankly,none of the new offerings appeal to me.I think "Disturbia" will win,but will die quickly therafter.
I am curious as to how Hot Fuzz will do in the US. We will see if Shaun Of The Dead was a one shot phenenmenon or not.
post #25 of 23230
Dellamorte's weekend guesstimates:
1) Disturbia – $14.2 million
2) Perfect Stranger – $14.1 million
3) Blades of Glory – $14 million
4) Meet the Robinsons – $9 million
5) Are We Done Yet? - $8 million
6) Grindhouse - $7 million (and I'm being nice)
7) Aqua Teen Hunger Force - $6 million
8) The Reaping - $5.5 million
9) Pathfinder - $5 million
10) 300 – $4.5 million

Friday's real estimates:
1) Disturbia – $8.7 million
2) Blades of Glory – $4.3 million
3) Perfect Stranger – $3.9 million
4) Meet the Robinsons – $3.1 million
5) Are We Done Yet? - $2.4 million
6) Pathfinder - $1.6 million
7) The Reaping - $1.4 million
8) Redline - $1.4 million
9) Wild Hogs - $1.3 million
10) Grindhouse - $1.3 million

And ATHF was #11.

Not looking too good.
post #26 of 23230
Goodnight Grindhouse.
See you on DVD next month.
post #27 of 23230
Not looking too good in me being wrong? Honestly, honestly, I will always be wrong. Always. Sometimes I'll just be more right than others. But here's the analysis of what I said. I thought Disturbia would take the top, such turned out to be true. It looks like the teens showed up for this one, and the tracking was off, which it can be with youth oriented titles. It also looks like audiences sniffed a dud in Perfect Stranger and kept away a little more than I had anticipated. Were I writing this on Friday, I might have given Disturbia a larger lead.

AQTF was tracking highest of the other titles, but when you get into the second half of the prediction, there's more wiggle room. The car movie did better than I thought, but Blades, Robinsons and Are We there are all about where I said they would be, in terms of numbers. The Reaping and Grindhouse took bigger hits than I predicted, though with Grindhouse I feel bad that it took a 73% plunge, and though I'm not surprised I couldn't write that as my prediction, I didn't want to. But it was DOA last weekend, and there's no win stateside.
post #28 of 23230
And Wild Hogs is still in the top 10. I'm embarassed of this country.
post #29 of 23230
People who spent money on "Wild Hogs" instead of "Grindhouse" are a special sort of asshole.
post #30 of 23230
Slow Burn isn't going to break National Lampoon's Gold Diggers record for lowest per theater average for a wide release, but it's close, coming in at $687.
post #31 of 23230
Quote:
Originally Posted by MikeShaynePI
Dellamorte's weekend guesstimates:
1) Disturbia – $14.2 million
2) Perfect Stranger – $14.1 million
3) Blades of Glory – $14 million
4) Meet the Robinsons – $9 million
5) Are We Done Yet? - $8 million
6) Grindhouse - $7 million (and I'm being nice)
7) Aqua Teen Hunger Force - $6 million
8) The Reaping - $5.5 million
9) Pathfinder - $5 million
10) 300 – $4.5 million

Friday's real estimates:
1) Disturbia – $8.7 million
2) Blades of Glory – $4.3 million
3) Perfect Stranger – $3.9 million
4) Meet the Robinsons – $3.1 million
5) Are We Done Yet? - $2.4 million
6) Pathfinder - $1.6 million
7) The Reaping - $1.4 million
8) Redline - $1.4 million
9) Wild Hogs - $1.3 million
10) Grindhouse - $1.3 million

Weekend Estimates:
1) Disturbia – $23 million
2) Blades of Glory – $14 million
3) Meet the Robinsons – $12.1 million
4) Perfect Stranger – $11.5 million
5) Are We Done Yet? - $9.2 million
6) Pathfinder - $4.8 million
7) Wild Hogs - $4.6 million
8) The Reaping - $4.5 million
9) 300 - $4.3 million
10) Grindhouse - $4.2 million

Redline dropped to #11, and ATHF dropped to #13.


And Wild Hogs rose to #7. Fuck you America.
post #32 of 23230
Something that's most puzzling me about this dead horse that is Grindhouse's appeal- doesn't it have the same demographic as 300? How are these totally different audiences?
post #33 of 23230
Quote:
Originally Posted by KABONG
Something that's most puzzling me about this dead horse that is Grindhouse's appeal- doesn't it have the same demographic as 300? How are these totally different audiences?
300 was shorter, more visually appealing, promised the sight of 300 tough shirtless guys which attracts the female audience while the violence and, well, toughness attracts the male audiences, and had a fantastic trailer to boot. The positive word of mouth and the news of record openings led people who wouldn't normally see it go see it so that they could participate in the conversations.
post #34 of 23230
post #35 of 23230
Twas the title that killed "Redline", which I figured might be a surprise sleeper of sorts. What does that title even mean?
post #36 of 23230
Quote:
Originally Posted by Desert Squirrel
300 was shorter, more visually appealing, promised the sight of 300 tough shirtless guys which attracts the female audience while the violence and, well, toughness attracts the male audiences, and had a fantastic trailer to boot. The positive word of mouth and the news of record openings led people who wouldn't normally see it go see it so that they could participate in the conversations.
And also, 300 wasn't marketed as a film that required you to have knowledge of another little-known genre to appreciate what was going on. I'd bet 70% of the audience who saw 300 has no idea what "grindhouse" means, so using "See it ... at the grindhouse!" as one of your tag lines wasn't going to do a lot of good.

Not to mention that, for all its visual bells and whistles and graphic novel background, 300 tells a very basic story, and one which its trailers communicated.
post #37 of 23230
Quote:
Originally Posted by KABONG
Twas the title that killed "Redline", which I figured might be a surprise sleeper of sorts. What does that title even mean?
http://wikicars.org/en/Redline
post #38 of 23230
Quote:
Originally Posted by KABONG
Twas the title that killed "Redline", which I figured might be a surprise sleeper of sorts.
Surely, you jest. It's $30 million present from a multi-millionaire loan magnate to his actress girlfriend and his car collection (In fact, he even co-wrote the script). Even for the kiddies who would be the target demographic, there was no "there" there.
post #39 of 23230
Hate to say it guys, but prepare yourselves for another box office bitchslap when HOT FUZZ opens. I caught a preview screening and loved the shit out of the movie, but the trailers and marketing are utterly failing to communicate to Joe Sixpack what a great, fun ride it is.

My fingers are crossed 'cause I want it to succeed far more than I wanted GRINDHOUSE to, but the portents bode ill.
post #40 of 23230
To be fair, it's only opening on 700 or so screens. Great ad campaign or not, it simply won't be available in a good part of the country.
post #41 of 23230
How has The Hoax done, in its context?
post #42 of 23230
Quote:
Originally Posted by Desert Squirrel
300 was shorter, more visually appealing, promised the sight of 300 tough shirtless guys which attracts the female audience while the violence and, well, toughness attracts the male audiences, and had a fantastic trailer to boot. The positive word of mouth and the news of record openings led people who wouldn't normally see it go see it so that they could participate in the conversations.
All good points. Another thing 300 had over Grindhouse was that it had the tenous claim of being in the genre of 'historical epic' a la Braveheart, Troy and even Gladiator. It basically did get the Gladiator audience because it attracted people in all age brackets including older folks.
Grindhouse never got past its young male/film aficionado appeal.
post #43 of 23230
Quote:
Originally Posted by Subotai
How has The Hoax done, in its context?
It's at about $4 million, which is pretty solid considering that the hype is lowish. This is a classic Art house run, and numerous cities still have arthouse theaters, which specialize in such movies. As such, the film is intended to play for the next two months, if possible, and so it's meant to be a slow builder. Right now the numbers are goodish, but I'm guessing it cost at least 20-30, at least. If it's still playing in June, then it's a success.
post #44 of 23230
Quote:
Originally Posted by Kueller
Slow Burn isn't going to break National Lampoon's Gold Diggers record for lowest per theater average for a wide release, but it's close, coming in at $687.
Holy shit. So only about 60 people in the ENTIRE country saw this. Someone is feeling the icy chill of death's belly laugh.

Looks like I was right about Grindhouse but completely wrong about the rest.
post #45 of 23230
Quote:
Originally Posted by Vegan Dracula
Holy shit. So only about 60 people in the ENTIRE country saw this.
From the AP:

Quote:
Compared to Slow Burn, however, Redline was a blockbuster. Slow Burn, very much of an attic relic, unearthed from its corner after four long years of dust-collecting, "grossed" $800,000 on 1,163 screens. That's a per-theater average of $688. Given 2006's average ticket price of $6.55, that's about 105 people per theater. Given an estimated five showings a day, that's about 21 souls on hand for each showing.
post #46 of 23230
Oh, Per screen. I feel like a jackass.
post #47 of 23230
SLOW BURN must be a total pile of shit. It was filmed in 2003, IMDB lists it as a 2005 film and it just now hits the theaters. I mean, I know that a long delay in release doesn't always scream "shit", but considering it has some recognizable names and isn't a foreign film purchased by the Weinsteins, the odor is similar to that of a dirty diaper.
post #48 of 23230
Shaun of the Dead did quite well despite the small number of screens on opening day- which I believe was near the same number Hot Fuzz has right now. I keep seeing the trailer on Comedy Central, which deluded me into thinking the movie is getting a bigger opening.

I honestly hope that the Virginia Tech shooting has no effect on HF whatsoever- I mean, I might be worrying about nothing, but I fear it may have some effect on how well it does in box office. HF is a neat little film, and definitely one of the more funnier/enjoyable movie in the theaters right now, though the beginning is a tad bit slow.
post #49 of 23230
post #50 of 23230
That is a really great article.
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