CHUD NUMBERS: Box Office Discussion Thread - Page 3

I'm going high on Spider-Man 3 and guessing $142 million.

Going low. $120 million. It'll be hard to compete with that Next audience.

Going lower: $115 million. Oversatuation, plus I have a bunch of female friends that have zero interest in it.

$121 million.

$90 million.

$153 million

I'm thinking 110ish- then again I'm almost always too low.

130.

$117,256,475.75

1 dollar.

Drew is just itching for some overfill in her counter programming....

Ok that sucked, but I'm curious to see if that tactic works, or if Lucky You will be completely hagged this weekend.

When they all overbid and you get to be on stage with Bob Barker... well, they'll all be sorry.

$59 million for Spider-Man 3's opening day. It breaks Pirates' record by $4 million, but... I wouldn't be surprised if this film is mega frontloaded. It might not pass Pirates 2's opening weekend.

POTC:2 did 135, right? So let's say 15 of the 59 is Midnights, so it'd be maybe 48 today and 32 for Sunday. 139 sounds about right, if not 141.

Spidey apparently did $11m in midnights, so it's $48m for the day. I'd say that definitely puts it in the $140-145m range. I'm just curious to see how good its internal multiplier will be. X3 only managed a 2.23 last May.

h, I'm just looking around and saw that. I was at the Arclight, so they ran it for the first 24 hours non-stop. Does my 1:20 am count as a midnight? Dunno. If it doesn't then 52 or more possible for today. Could get to 150 for the three day. But, whatever word of mouth issues the film has, 300 is assured.

I actually don't know if a 1:20 counts as a midnight. I'd think so, since the Thursday 8 p.m. / 10 p.m. openings WB sometimes does get counted in with the midnights.

So much for my lowball, conservative $115M estimate. Shit, it might reach that before breakfast tomorrow.

Haha, it hits 148 for the weekend. Wow. So I'm going to lay the blame for no film breaking this record between Spidey 1 and Pirates 2 on all the Wednesday and Thursday release date for tentpoles between 02 and 06 (Think: Reloaded, Spidey 2, Revenge of the Sith, Shrek 2).

That's basically it. Sith's first three days totaled $124 million.

But it's not only that. The three days would be bigger if the opening day is a Friday, because you're combining the general public that will see the movie on opening weekend with the bigger fans who are going in on that opening weekday.

I seem to remember Reloaded being released on a Friday. Revolutions was released on a Wednesday, though.

Nope, Reloaded was a Thursday.

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/news/?id=1242&p=.htm

$148 million is a lot of dough. I wonder if this will keep Spider-man 3 as the highest weekend box office champ for quite some time. I can't help but think that Pirates 3 might give it a run for it's money.

I remember being hyped to go see Reloaded on that thursday. Then walking out of the theater really disappointed.

Pirates 3 won't re-take the record because it's opening over Memorial Day. Some of the typical 3-day business is going to spill into the holiday Monday.

it's made 375 million worldwide so far which means that form now on it's more or less profits! Congrats to Sony!

Not quite. Studios get approximately 50% of the gross (I've heard less than that worldwide, but I don't know the number, so we'll stay with fifty). With that kind of figure, Sony has made $187 million. The film will probably still be in the red by the time it's out of theaters, but it will do gangbusters on DVD.

I've talked to a few people who don't even know Pirates 3 is opening this month(!)

I know Disney is trying to prevent a backlash, but that's inevitable when you release sequels less than a year apart. And I've still yet to see TV spots for it and we're less than a month away till release.

It was my understanding that the studio makes a significantly higher proportion of the box office the first weekend, with the proportion of the studio's take being reduced each week, so that ultimately the proportions comes out to about 50-50. I'm not 100% on that, and I'm sure Andre knows, but if that is the case, this could be in the black during the theatrical run.

Yeah, that's essentially how it works.

The theaters must haved loved Titanic then, considering its low numbers in the first weekend!

It works that way sometimes. More studios and exhibitors are going with aggregate deals, since BO is so front loaded these days.

Mm. I assumed things would be heading in that direction at some point. The range is still in the 50-50 to 60-40 in the studio's direction, though, right? I figure the exhibitors wouldn't be happy with an aggregate deal that nets them less than 40%.

Depends on the film. Theaters still make the most of their money on Popcorn and sodas.

Well, yeah. But money is still money, they're going to want ass much of it as possible, and I imagine the exhibitors would have to be pulling in at least as much on an aggregate deal as they were on the old deal.

But of course, I'm simply speaking in generalities here. I was just asking if, in general, that range would be correct.

The weekend wrap:

http://www.chud.com/index.php?type=news&id=10134

What the fuck is Ouch? Did my reaction to "Lucky You"'s box office instantly become a film?

It's going to be interesting to see how Spider-Man 3 does next weekend with the reviews/word-of-mouth, and the fact that it basically faces no competition until Shrek the 3rd...

Thanks for acknowledging my prediction, Andre!

That I believe is supposed to be a joke of some sort about Nic Cage's Next.

Any film released this week or last that wasn't SM3 was a sacrificial entity.

And expect the number to be adjusted up or down come tomorrow. Some are reporting 150. That may hold or be broken.

Brandon Grey's wrap up has this in more than 10,000 screens, compared to Pirates' 8500. That's $14,800 per literal screen for Spidey compared to $16,000 for Pirates. So there you go.

Looks like slightly negative press didn't hurt it too much. That's good...it's not a bad film.

Thanks for the press release, TV Dinner.

The SPIDER-MAN 3 second week forecast is in!

http://www.chud.com/index.php?type=news&id=10199

Well, it's not just school being in that indicate the weekdays are slow. It's also the fact that the first Spider-Man had bigger weekdays.

And I think you're right about the drop for Spidey. It's 55% minimum fall.

Pretty accurate about Lohan. When people prefer to talk about your behind-the-scenes bullshit than the film you're trying to promote, you're in trouble and she's been in that situation for quiet awhile now. Her career is headed nowhere; she's increasingly becoming box-office poison by her choices in films and public opinion. Remember Just My Luck barely cracking the Top 10 when it opened? Proof's in the puddin...

As for Spider-Man 3, I'll guess and say it takes in around...$60 million.

Looking at the Wednesday numbers, it may not cross 200 on Friday.

And going by those numbers, I'm thinking that it's going to be closer to 50 than 60, unless it can manage to jump by about 200% on Friday. It's going to fall at least 60%.

So would Hot Fuzz be considered a legitimate success, based on the budget?