CHUD NUMBERS: Box Office Discussion Thread - Page 217

Guess the huge box office for The Lorax really kick-started the Dr. Seuss craze cause they're already rebooting Cat in the Hat. I'm sure How the Grinch Stole Christmas is next.

 

http://www.deadline.com/2012/03/dr-seuss-the-cat-in-the-hat-get-new-life-at-chris-meledandris-illumination/

 

Mike Myers must be turning in his grave.

Well, they couldn't well make a shittier Cat in the Hat movie. I wonder how crass we can make Dr Seuss, as a nation?

Pretty fucking crass, I imagine.

 

Good to see HUGO hanging in there.  $72 million domestic and over $160 million overseas.   Not a huge hit but not terrible.  It's been a barnstormer in certain countries, like Australia.  It made 20% more there than in the UK, despite only having a third of the population.  Crazy.

Had no idea people didn't really use the library in the UK - because there is no chance in hell that a copy of The Hunger Games is in a local public library anywhere in the US right now.  Also, I've never seen a US public library have more than three copies of anything - they generally sell donated copies or worn out books at annual sales.  Your story about UK libraries having too many books is as weird to me as needing a television license.

 

I think that wondering if THG plays as big as Twilight or HP is kind of splitting hairs - it will open to 100 and play long 'till May to 300 or 400 domestic, with the international creeping close to a billion.  Those numbers are in the same league as HP or Twilight or LOTR and these crummy Hunger Games movies will enter the zeitgeist, which I'm not really looking forward to.

I think you're over-hyping its chances here. It's big but it's not that big.

 

What are people basing their Hunger Games numbers (opening and eventual) on?  Are the books as popular as Twilight/Potter/Rings?  Where's the tracking data?

You got that right.  That book is the most requested book in my local library system right now.  Unreal.

I'm looking at the books being very popular with people I know, mostly women and teenagers who also like Twilight and Harry Potter, the good reviews, the science fiction angle, Fast 5's huge spring numbers last year, and the general buzz around the movie being very similar to Batman in 89 or The Blair Witch Project - people can't wait to see this movie, tell their friends to see this movie, and see it more than once.  I won't live and die but the 300/400 million prediction, shy of 1 bil international number I made a few posts ago, but this will definitely make at least 200 US and 600 Int - and I feel that's really low-balling it.  I also feel the movie is going to blow and that I can always watch The Running Man whenever I want, usually every five years or so.

What does Fast Five have to do with this movie?  And this is nowhere near as hyped as Batman 89, are you insane man!? ;)

 

What a sentence.

 

 

What are you basing that huge split on? I'm also from the UK and I haven't seen much indication that the book phenomenon has caught on here like it apparently has in the states. And if it hasn't caught on here I doubt it would have in non-english speaking countries.

 

Haha just saw the Running Man bit. I think I may be speaking to a crazy person.

I just got back from grabbing tickets for a different movie, and a bunch of people were getting Hunger Games tickets, to the point that the girl working the box office started laughing.  I do wonder how the midnight numbers for this will be, considering that the target audience has school the next morning.

The target audience may be high school girls, but it's going to play to a much wider audience. It will play from elementary school aged kids to people in their 60s. I keep hearing from people of all ages and genders how they're dying to see the movie, and how much they love the books. Even my parents (in their 60s) have read the books and plan on seeing the movie. Right now I'm going to predict that it earns more than any Harry Potter or Twilight adaption opening weekend, and I really wouldn't be surprised if its sets the record for highest grossing opening weekend.

Unlike Twilight and Harry Potter, it's intended "target audience" won't have to drag their signifant others or family members to the screenings. Men and older individuals will actually be willing to see The Hunger Games in the theater.

Where is the tracking data to prove this?  Anecdotal evidence (my parents like it) is not real evidence.  I'm not saying it wont have a big opening and a large overall take, I'm just wondering where people are getting these huge numbers from?  

I gave my 11 year old son the books for Christmas and he went through them pretty quickly. Once speculation picked up on this thread I decided to burn through them real fast. I am nearly finished with the last book and while it is certainly a series for young people, and skewed to a female audience (love triangle, makeovers, rebelling against societal expectations, being upset alot). It is not so ridiculously sappy to exclude a male audience the way twighlight does. The political stuff is raw, simplistic and a bit silly, but it is not so bad as to be off putting and there are some universal themes that do ring true.

 

It is very reminiscent of Potter in that it will speak to a wide audience, is easily digestable, and ideal to be made into a movie (in fact a movie done properly could actually have more depth and nuance than the books in this case). So it really comes down to how good a movie is this going to be? If it is well done, and garners positive word of mouth, I think the sky's the limit for this thing.

 

It's not getting those sorts of legs.  Too much of an already established franchise.  A multiplier of 2.5 would be really amazing for it.

 

I think the opening weekend's going to be closer to 130-140 than 100, personally.

I'm just not getting where all the downward estimates are coming from in here, to be frank.  We've got heavy desire on the part of a major target audience (young adults) to see this movie- a target audience with disposable income ready to see this multiple times should it prove worthy. I also know of adults that want to see this. There's a huge market for this.

 

Now, granted it may not have the draw of a major effects blockbuster like Avatar, but it also did not cost over two hundred million like John Carter did. It's got a great supporting cast, and talented young leads. For God's sake, the lead actress has an Oscar nomination, and isn't Anna Paquin or Marisa Tomei. Besides, I would think people would be pulling for this to succeed. It's a reasonably interesting speculative fiction story that won't have to break the bank to be made. It could encourage more SF movies. 

 

Haters gotta hate? Or what?

I just wanted to know where the data is coming from, I'm not hating.

 

I did some research and tracking shows this will probably open to least $100, if not $130...big opening weekend does not equal legs so we'll have to wait to see what the total take is.

How about a reference such as the Hollywood Reporter?

 

http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/news/hunger-games-tickets-twilight-breaking-dawn-box-office-298626

 

Interest is massive in the Lionsgate tentpole; "The Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn Part 1" debuted to $138.1 million in November.

 

I just don't put a ton of stock into tracking.  And the biggest release weekend of ALL TIME?  Really?  I'm a Hunger Dame, and I'd be pleased as punch if that happened, but I don't sense the sort of groundswell that I did when The Dark Knight opened.  Personally, I would be shocked as all hell if this hit $100 million opening weekend.

To be fair, the report says it could be the biggest Lionsgate opening of all time, not that it has a shot at taking out Deathly Hollows' record.

This.

 

Looks like audiences didn't catch on to John Carter this weekend. No upswell rise of support.

 

Do you talk to people outside of message boards? While I don't have official certified tracking reports (which are little more than a prediction that can be easily come out wrong), people that I've talked to from all walks of life - teachers (who all say their kids are really into the series), fellow office workers from their 20s to their 40s, some of my old fraternity brothers, and groups of older individuals (my mom's book club read the series) - have told me they plan on seeing the movie at the theater. It's cool if you consider this anecdotal evidence. I'm just saying there's a hell of a lot more groups of people than 15 year old girls that are excited to see the movie. I'm frankly surprised by the amount of fans, even though I think the series is pretty good.

And maybe The Hunger Games won't have Dark Knight numbers, but it also hasn't been an icon of pop culture for 60+ years with the buzz of a recently deceased actor taking on one of the biggest villan roles of all time.

If anything is going to trump Potter's weekend record, it will be Dark Knight Rises or Breaking Dawn II. Not Hunger Games, which will obviously open big. But yeah... I don't see this buildup for $100 million 3-day opening either.

Dark Knight Rises will beat Potter's record.  Breaking Dawn 2 will not out-open BD1 by very much.

Hunger Games will easily make over a 100 million opening weekend. The friggin Lorax made 70 mil two weekends ago. The Hunger Games is selling out its midnight showings and Friday night showings already. It's gonna be huge. I'll eat some crow if I'm wrong. It wouldn't be the first time.

Tracking is often a blunt instrument, but Hunger Games is going to do at least $90 million.

 

That makes two of us.

 

We all agree its going to open strong and beat Wrath of the Titans and Mirror Mirror the week after, right? Never doubted it would be the biggest grosser of the March releases.

I don't have a problem believing HG will do 100, the tracking data is there.  I just don't see this insane, zeitgeist shifting cataclysm people are predicting.  

Yeah, but there's always somebody who posts about not seeing an insane, zeitgeist shifting cataclysm happening right before an insane, zeitgeist shifting cataclysm happens.

 

I've been called an idiot for predicting massive openings for Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest and The Dark Knight.  Not saying you're calling anyone that; just that big things aren't always evident to everybody at all times.

The other thing is that a film can gross over $100 million and not be a insane, zeitgeist shifting cataclysm. That's not the way movies work any more.

True.  $100m isn't the number it was.  There was a point where any film crossing the mark (Spider-Man, Shrek 2, Star Wars: Episode III) was a huge deal.  Now, not so much.

 

I could say that with Avatar because Cameron already offered proof he's capable of it.  You're basing your assumption on what exactly?  A hunch?  This is barely going to open in the top 10 of record openers.

Come on, almost everyone here thought Avatar was going to be a phyrric victory at best until shortly before it came out, and plenty were convinced that Twilight would burn out with the second movie because of bad word of mouth from the first.

 

Given how popular the books apparently are in the states I could easily see this following a Twilighty path, where the book fans help make the movie a surprise hit which generates publicity which gets more people curious and who try out the books and then the next movie comes out with even more anticipation and the whole thing snowballs out of itself.

I certainly drank the "Avatar will bomb" kool-aid at the time!  And that was when I was really looking forward to the movie!

 

And now, I harbor much disdain for it.  Hahahahaha. 

 

I'm going to be looking upon this thread with great interest come next weekend.

A film with no stars that isn't a sequel or prequel is going to open to $116m+. This is somehow not impressive?

There's no denying that The Hunger Games is going to open huge. It's just keeping expectations in check when people say this will be the BIGGEST OPENING WEEKEND OF ALL TIME! That's still a loooong way to go and The Dark Knight and Harry Potter had many other factors which helped them reach that goal that Hunger Game doesn't have at the moment. When Mockingjay opens then maybe let's "all time" talk. 

No one is disputing this is an impressive open (if it happens).  I'm talking about the predictions for HG being a huge juggernaut blockbuster like it's some foregone conclusion.  For that to happen, nearly EVERYONE has to see it multiple times and nobody knows if that will happen for sure.

What's your definition of a huge juggernaut blockbuster? Blockbusters today are defined by their opening weekends. $110m+ is a blockbuster by any reasonable measure. (And certainly wouldn't require multiple viewings.)

Nobody expects this to shatter the opening weekend record or make $500m domestically. But it is a situation similar to Spider-Man where we all know it's going to open to quite a lot; it's just a matter of how high it goes.

OH, I think the audiences did catch onto JC just fine. What they caught onto was the problem. 

 

As for HG, I am not expecting some huge astronomical number like twice the box office for TDK and Breaking Dawn. But this is a movie with no stars in the lead and has no previous sequel with built in advertising. It's the moral equivalent of a Scholastic Book Club success raised to orbital heights. It's all based upon the success of kids reading the books and wanting a movie out of it. We all have a book we've read that we wanted to see made into a movie. Some have waited  twenty years or more for Rendevous With Rama and may never see it. This groundswell of interest has built up over, what? It was published in late 2008. That's very fast turnaround, striking when the iron is hot. 

 

 

Another thing Hunger Games has going for it is that the national media is incredibly eager to lock it into the Harry Potter slot of mythstory that defines our decade, which I suppose makes sense for the media to do. If the movie is as good as everyone says, that ought to take.

 

Christ, it's like one step forward, two steps back around here.

 

Nevermind.

I respectfully disagree that the hype is nowhere near Batman 89.  There are movie magazines in supermarket checkout lanes for HG, and the WOM on the books is insane and appeals to a large range of people.  I think that movies like Twilight, Pirates, and HG are the equivalent of the Superbowl - people who don't really watch sports or movies will check it out anyways because it's "big" and "everyone" is in on it, even though, really, it's rarely any good.  The appeal for this type of thing is broad because there's a delivery of loud spectacle, maudlin dramatics, and thin narrative that engages a huge audience just once or twice a year.  We really should be grateful that we still get movies like Inception or TDK considering what actually sells.

 

I mentioned Fast Five because it had summer movie numbers in April.  Movies like this never open this early - Blade 2 is a delightful exception.

 

I meant to say that the lowball for US plus Int should be 600 - that was a typo, but I wouldn't blink an eye if the movie makes 900 all told.

The Hunger Games is going to beat us up and take all our lunch money.

Don't you mean kill us and take all our tesserae?

People were getting the bat symbol shaved into the back of their heads in 89 before the movie came out.  The bat symbol was ubiquitous, it was everywhere.  Prince's music video Batdance was playing every other hour, it was the number one single.  People were wearing Batman t-shirts, hats, shoes, watches, backpacks, lunchboxes...

 

Hunger Games is hyped, but Batman went beyond hype, it was a force of nature and almost to the point of becoming a parody of itself.  HG is nowhere near that, sorry. 

I guess the hype is more like "Forrest Gump" or "Passion of the Christ" then since the HG hype surrounds demographics that don't usually go for movies.  This movie is about cow-poke underdogs who use family values and self-determination to buck the system, and it also has Twilight style teen romance, and it's an action movie like Transformers or Pirates (or Thunderdome and The Running Man really).  Financially though, I'm thinking this will "shock" people like Batman did making 250 in 89 or The Blair Witch Project doing nine-figures, or Titanic breaking the billion dollar mark.  My first post was that whether it makes half a billion dollars or a billion dollars is really splitting hairs, since culturally it's going to be placed along with HP, Twilight, LOTR, etc.  If I was a betting man, I'd say this will be bigger than Twilight, which means billions of dollars over three movies.

You've lost us all.

Well, I'll come back in a few weeks and if my numbers don't match up I'll admit I was wrong.  If I'm right, then I'm king of the internets.