CHUD NUMBERS: Box Office Discussion Thread - Page 243

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Originally Posted by The Dark Shape 

 

"AVATAR only beats TITANIC by $160 million.  Cost twice as much to make.  Will Cameron be exiled from Hollywood?  Read on to find out!"

And world wide by only 1B.

If you really think about it Avatar making 2.7B world wide is absurd numbers.   You don't really appreciate it until something like Avengers comes along.  

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Originally Posted by felix 

 

Never understood that decision. Anyone know why they did that?

Probably because it was a hassle to keep up with it and it wasn't vital to it's site money wise.  

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Originally Posted by cccc 

Marvel’s The Avengers from Disney looks like around $25M for the day and a huge $80M second weekend

This is will break Avatar 2nd weak record of 76M btw.  

I think it's going higher than that.  First reports last Friday had it around $65m, after all.

Rth from the Boxoffice.com forums has Friday at 28-30m.
 

Avengers' worldwide:  $803,319,373

In two weeks. Insane.

In two weeks.

Point still stands though. Insane.

From Deadline: http://www.deadline.com/hollywood/

‘AVENGERS’ SETS 2ND WEEKEND RECORD $100M – Still #1 Phenom Nearing $1B Global; Anemic ‘Dark Shadows’ Creeping To $28M

If this is true, then it'll truly be amazing! Looks like The Avengers will break 1B this Sunday. 

A Josh Whedon film is going to make 1 BILLION Dollars, people.

Bet you didn't see that coming a few years back.

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Originally Posted by The Dark Shape 

I think it's going higher than that.  First reports last Friday had it around $65m, after all.

It'll hit 90-100.  

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Originally Posted by felix 

A Josh Whedon film is going to make 1 BILLION Dollars, people.

 

Bet you didn't see that coming a few years back.

I'm not.  

Anecdotes, blah blah blah, but we went to a 10:30 show last night, and the show that let out before us was absolutely packed.  Ours was about 3/4 full.

I saw it for the second time (at a drive-in) and the place was jammed packed sold out.  I haven't been to a drive-in since I've been 16.  It was quite fun.  

So if it made 25M Friday, Sat 35M, Sunday 20M = I'm having trouble seeing how it's going to make 100M.

Unless Saturday is in the 40-45 range and Sunday is in the 25 range.   

Since DS is under performing.  It's possible.  

BTW - I actually missed the 3D when I saw it the first time, and I'm not a 3D whore nor do I ever see it 3D unless it's by a director who has a clue.   This was well done.  

I'm seeing Friday estimates closer to $29-30 million.

$29.1m is the official estimate.  A standard 44% increase would put today at just about $42 million.  $100m is happening.

God, the Avengers is doing to box office records what The Hulk did to Loki. It won't unseat Avatar/Titanic, but getting third place seems a strong possiblity.

Dark Shadows seems to be a bust. It might break even or even make a small profit when you figure in World Wide Box Office,but is seems as though the Burton/Depp combo did not work this time around.

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Originally Posted by dudalb 

God, the Avengers is doing to box office records what The Hulk did to Loki. It won't unseat Avatar/Titanic, but getting third place seems a strong possiblity.

Dark Shadows seems to be a bust. It might break even or even make a small profit when you figure in World Wide Box Office,but is seems as though the Burton/Depp combo did not work this time around.

Considering the fact that DS cost 150 million or so, I think it might be hard for WB to recoup the budget, not to mention making a profit off it. WB should've released it during the fall, not in the start of summer.

Actually, I don't think I can nitpick the logic of Dark Shadows' release too badly here. The studios see the Burton/Depp team as a surefire hit after Alice in Wonderland, and it's certainly different enough from Avengers that it seemed like the logical competition, as opposed to, say, Battleship, which is now officially fucked. They probably saw this as the Austin Powers: The Spy Who Shagged Me to Avengers' Phantom Menace.

It's certainly weird that something as hackneyed (for Burton) as Alice did so well whereas this, which has a legitimately funny trailer and at least seems quirky enough to be interesting, is flopping. I'd argue that it's Burton fatigue setting in, but why didn't that happen after Charlie and the Chocolate Factory? Why is it happening now?
 

Nah, I think it's more how do you sell a TV show that nobody remembers. Also with True Blood and Twilight doing so well vampires are "supposed" to be dark, brooding and hot not funny and pale. It's kind of the problem Mars Attacks had opening after Independence Day.

But even if you had no idea Dark Shadows is a TV show--and I'm sure a lot of people don't--it looks like classic Burton stuff, which tends to do well, so why not this time?
 

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Originally Posted by Anger Management 

 

Considering the fact that DS cost 150 million or so, I think it might be hard for WB to recoup the budget, not to mention making a profit off it. WB should've released it during the fall, not in the start of summer.

First I've heard of DS costing $150 million. I thought it was budgeted around $60 to $80 million.

All of us, myself included, shoulda seen this coming.

Held off on footage, save for production stills, for the longest time and only put one trailer a month and half before release. Never a good sign.

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Originally Posted by The Prankster 

But even if you had no idea Dark Shadows is a TV show--and I'm sure a lot of people don't--it looks like classic Burton stuff, which tends to do well, so why not this time?
 

Well, it hasn't exactly bombed yet or anything. 10 M is still a respectable Friday (and of course is already doing well overseas). It was never going to open as big as Chocolate Factory or Alice in Wonderland because of the popularity behind those titles. This is leaning more towards Corpse Bride and Sweeney Todd in being more macabre with humor. Both slightly disappointed at the box office around 50 M but this should at least approach 100 M depending on the coming weeks and considering there's nothing else like it coming out.

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Originally Posted by EvilTwin 

 

First I've heard of DS costing $150 million. I thought it was budgeted around $60 to $80 million.

According to Box Office Mojo, DS costs 150 million.

http://boxofficemojo.com/movies/?id=darkshadows.htm

Dark Shadows cost $100m after tax credits.  Always trust the L.A. Times more than BoxOfficeMojo.

The DS release date looks all right on paper, but it's just the bad luck of opening right after a juggernaut that will make near 100 mill this weekend. I think it might be the difference between being a modest success and a disappointment. Personally, I might have gone and seen it, but right now, I'd kind of just like to see Avengers again more, which can't be a unique feeling when there's a A+ cinemascore.

Hell, Dark Shadows might have been a great April release. It was not marketed with a great deal of confidence, which can be a dealbreaker when the competition is almost hyper-confident.

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Originally Posted by The Dark Shape 

Dark Shadows cost $100m after tax credits.  Always trust the L.A. Times more than BoxOfficeMojo.

Nikki Finke was also tossing around $150-$175. Which I also don't believe, but whatever.

Regardless, they sure as shit spent a good chunk of change promoting it. It might have legs, since there's nothing on the marketplace like it, but B- Cinemascore is harsh, and ZERO young people wanna see this.

Finke's reporting a $44 million Saturday and $104m weekend for Avengers.

(Fun side note -- the previous record for biggest second Saturday belongs to Spider-Man with $30m.  The record stood for a full decade.)

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Originally Posted by The Dark Shape 

Finke's reporting a $44 million Saturday and $104m weekend for Avengers.

 

(Fun side note -- the previous record for biggest second Saturday belongs to Spider-Man with $30m.  The record stood for a full decade.)

It's great to see another Marvel superhero movie breaks the second Saturday record. 

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Originally Posted by The Dark Shape 

Finke's reporting a $44 million Saturday and $104m weekend for Avengers.

 

(Fun side note -- the previous record for biggest second Saturday belongs to Spider-Man with $30m.  The record stood for a full decade.)

So how far will that 44 go up given that it seems like every estimate ends up going up on this movie?

I've read some places that $50 million is in play.  One theater manager said his theater did over 3,000 tickets last Saturday for Avengers, and was on pace for about 2,400 yesterday.  Might be a little overly optimistic, but nothing would surprise me at this point.

Official weekend estimate is $103,163,000.

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Originally Posted by The Dark Shape 

Official weekend estimate is $103,163,000.

Pretty much online with the 50% drop.   I'm so, so curious to see what TDKR does.    

These numbers are insane. Next weekend it could be over half a billion domestic. Only three films have done that (unadjusted). Two were directed by James Cameron.

Yeah...is it completely insane to say this could beat Titanic domestically? Or even Avatar?
 

It might be insane, but I really want it to beat Avatar.  Because I'm PEH-TEE.... and...

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Originally Posted by The Prankster 

Yeah...is it completely insane to say this could beat Titanic domestically? Or even Avatar?
 

Gonna depend on the drops.  A straight 50% in the second weekend is actually pretty awesome considering the colossal amount it made in the first weekend.  If it were truly "front loaded" we'd probably be looking at closer to 60% or more.  Plus the way the estimates are going, it might even be a little less than 50%.  Either way it probably simply wouldn't have been realistic for Avengers to NOT have a close to 50% drop this weekend.

Now here's the thing:  Avengers second weekend take is larger than Avatar's first weekend take, but in order to have any chance at matching or beating it, it's going to have to basically have a 25% or less drop -next- weekend, and then even smaller drops from there, while maintaining strong weekday sales.

The problem is that Avengers is going to have films booting it out of the premium 3D theaters a lot sooner than Avatar did (which basically had the 3D and IMAX theaters completely to itself from opening all the way until....March, I think it was?  Even Battleship is going to steal some of those screens from it, then Men In Black 3, then Prometheus, etc.... etc....

So ultimately...it's pretty unlikely it'll beat Avatar or likely even Titanic unless they do a re-release later in the year/next year/whatever.  It's probably got 3rd place in the bag, though.

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Originally Posted by The Prankster 

Yeah...is it completely insane to say this could beat Titanic domestically? Or even Avatar?
 

I wouldn't say it's insane to say that, but it's very unlikely.  

Those films played fucking forever and slowly built momentum that increased as time went on.  Avengers is still semi-front loaded, it's just that it's spilling over into the second weekend because of people who couldn't see it first weekend because of sold out screenings.  People need to remember Avatar and Titanic did not have massive openings...they were slow burns.  These huge immediate numbers for Avengers means that it is very front loaded, albeit with lots of spillage.  

Titanic and Avatar also opened in relatively fallow periods for new releases.  There wasn't a string of future blockbusters waiting for them in the weeds.

It's kinda dumb of me to act like I know anything, but it seems to me it definitely has third place in the bag, right?  I mean, even if it had done 90 this weekend, I thought it was still on track for at least 550ish.  I think it'll cross 600 domestic eventually.

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Originally Posted by Bailey 

It's kinda dumb of me to act like I know anything, but it seems to me it definitely has third place in the bag, right?  I mean, even if it had done 90 this weekend, I thought it was still on track for at least 550ish.  I think it'll cross 600 domestic eventually.

Yeah, I'd say third place is a lock but I think that's it.

I'm always surprised by how big the jump is between Titanic and whatever is number three. There's $855m between Titanic and Deathly Hallows II. That's a colossal jump.  

Titanic is $600 million domestic, right? That..really doesn't seem out of reach. Avengers is almost two-thirds of the way there already. You're right that we're entering blockbuster territory, but Battleship looks weak, the Dictator is counter-programming just like Dark Shadows, and even Men in Black 3 doesn't seem like the sure-fire juggernaut it might have been. It seems entirely possible for Avengers to remain #1 for most of the month, and even when it sinks below that, it's going to keep making money. And it sounds like Disney is throwing its weight around to procure more screens from the various theaters.

It'll cross $400 million domestic by this Thursday, it'll probably be up to $500 million by the same time the week after, when the competition really starts to get serious...if it can hang on even a little I think $600 mill is within reach.
 

ETA: Hmm, OK, Titanic is $658 million. I agree that'll be tough, but again, doesn't seem completely out of reach.

Man, the discrepancy between Dark Knight domestic and foreign is weirdly huge. It just didn't catch on overseas. Avengers has already passed it worldwide but is still a long way from beating it domestic.

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Originally Posted by Damon Houx 

These numbers are insane. Next weekend it could be over half a billion domestic. Only three films have done that (unadjusted). Two were directed by James Cameron.

Nah.  It's going to do about 11 on Monday, down to 7-ish on Thursday.  Next weekend will be around 50-55.  Best case scenario after next weekend is 475.  If my math is right, AVENGERS is on pace for about 560-575.

Between this and DARK KNIGHT RISES' chances at exploding, this is like box office Christmas.  Enjoy it while it lasts, guys.

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Originally Posted by The Prankster 

Man, the discrepancy between Dark Knight domestic and foreign is weirdly huge. It just didn't catch on overseas. Avengers has already passed it worldwide but is still a long way from beating it domestic.

To be fair, DARK KNIGHT hit before the overseas explosion really took place.  TDKR will make more than TDK outside the U.S.

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Originally Posted by Richard Dickson 

Titanic and Avatar also opened in relatively fallow periods for new releases.  There wasn't a string of future blockbusters waiting for them in the weeds.

To be fair, Avatar did contend with Sherlock Holmes and Alvin and the Chipmunks which both made over 200 M domestic.

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Originally Posted by The Prankster 

Man, the discrepancy between Dark Knight domestic and foreign is weirdly huge. It just didn't catch on overseas. Avengers has already passed it worldwide but is still a long way from beating it domestic.

 

None of the Batman movies have been particularly popular overseas but its jump from Batman Begins is what was impressive. Begins made "only" 167 M overseas and The Dark Knight made 468 M which is a pretty huge jump considering.

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Originally Posted by mcnooj82 

It might be insane, but I really want it to beat Avatar.  Because I'm PEH-TEE.... and...

...small? Diminutive? Hold on, it's coming to me...

Anyway, forget Avengers and DKR. You all know the movie that's going to bury them both is Katy Perry: Part of Me.

You also all know the reason for Dark Knight's success was Eric Roberts, right? It was his time.

Actually, if you look at the figures, most comic book hero movies make most of their profits   in the US/Canada market. ONe of the things that surprised people in the industry about the Avengers is that it will make the bulk of it's money overseas.That is unusual for a Super Hero based movie.

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Originally Posted by Martin Blank 

You also all know the reason for Dark Knight's success was Eric Roberts, right? It was his time.

Seriously though, how long before the "Avengers only made that much money because..." argument. We've had;

Avatar only made that much money because of 3-D

Dark Knight only made that much money because of Heath Ledger

Titanic only made that much money because of teenage girls

Gone with the Wind only made that much money because Americans are racist

etc...

Avengers only made that much money because of Cobie Smulders. You know how many people watch How I Met Your Mother, man?

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Originally Posted by User_32 

 

 

Seriously though, how long before the "Avengers only made that much money because..." argument. We've had;

 

Avatar only made that much money because of 3-D

Dark Knight only made that much money because of Heath Ledger

Titanic only made that much money because of teenage girls

Gone with the Wind only made that much money because Americans are racist

etc...

Gone With the Wind made money because American had their passions inflamed by Clark Gable's reckless use of the word DAMN!!!