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CHUD NUMBERS: Box Office Discussion Thread - Page 243

post #12101 of 23516
Quote:
Originally Posted by The Dark Shape View Post

I think it's going higher than that.  First reports last Friday had it around $65m, after all.

It'll hit 90-100.  

post #12102 of 23516
Quote:
Originally Posted by felix View Post

A Josh Whedon film is going to make 1 BILLION Dollars, people.

 

Bet you didn't see that coming a few years back.

 

I'm not.  

post #12103 of 23516

Anecdotes, blah blah blah, but we went to a 10:30 show last night, and the show that let out before us was absolutely packed.  Ours was about 3/4 full.

post #12104 of 23516

I saw it for the second time (at a drive-in) and the place was jammed packed sold out.  I haven't been to a drive-in since I've been 16.  It was quite fun.  

 

So if it made 25M Friday, Sat 35M, Sunday 20M = I'm having trouble seeing how it's going to make 100M.

 

Unless Saturday is in the 40-45 range and Sunday is in the 25 range.   

 

 

Since DS is under performing.  It's possible.  

 

BTW - I actually missed the 3D when I saw it the first time, and I'm not a 3D whore nor do I ever see it 3D unless it's by a director who has a clue.   This was well done.  

post #12105 of 23516
How much did this release date cost Dark Shadows? My guess would be at least 15 mill of the OW, maybe 40 off overall.
post #12106 of 23516

I'm seeing Friday estimates closer to $29-30 million.

post #12107 of 23516

$29.1m is the official estimate.  A standard 44% increase would put today at just about $42 million.  $100m is happening.

post #12108 of 23516

God, the Avengers is doing to box office records what The Hulk did to Loki. It won't unseat Avatar/Titanic, but getting third place seems a strong possiblity.

Dark Shadows seems to be a bust. It might break even or even make a small profit when you figure in World Wide Box Office,but is seems as though the Burton/Depp combo did not work this time around.

post #12109 of 23516
Quote:
Originally Posted by dudalb View Post

God, the Avengers is doing to box office records what The Hulk did to Loki. It won't unseat Avatar/Titanic, but getting third place seems a strong possiblity.

Dark Shadows seems to be a bust. It might break even or even make a small profit when you figure in World Wide Box Office,but is seems as though the Burton/Depp combo did not work this time around.

 

Considering the fact that DS cost 150 million or so, I think it might be hard for WB to recoup the budget, not to mention making a profit off it. WB should've released it during the fall, not in the start of summer.

post #12110 of 23516

Actually, I don't think I can nitpick the logic of Dark Shadows' release too badly here. The studios see the Burton/Depp team as a surefire hit after Alice in Wonderland, and it's certainly different enough from Avengers that it seemed like the logical competition, as opposed to, say, Battleship, which is now officially fucked. They probably saw this as the Austin Powers: The Spy Who Shagged Me to Avengers' Phantom Menace.

 

It's certainly weird that something as hackneyed (for Burton) as Alice did so well whereas this, which has a legitimately funny trailer and at least seems quirky enough to be interesting, is flopping. I'd argue that it's Burton fatigue setting in, but why didn't that happen after Charlie and the Chocolate Factory? Why is it happening now?
 

post #12111 of 23516
Quote:

Originally Posted by The Prankster View Post

 

I'd argue that it's Burton fatigue setting in, but why didn't that happen after Charlie and the Chocolate Factory? Why is it happening now?

 

 

Nah, I think it's more how do you sell a TV show that nobody remembers. Also with True Blood and Twilight doing so well vampires are "supposed" to be dark, brooding and hot not funny and pale. It's kind of the problem Mars Attacks had opening after Independence Day.

post #12112 of 23516

But even if you had no idea Dark Shadows is a TV show--and I'm sure a lot of people don't--it looks like classic Burton stuff, which tends to do well, so why not this time?
 

post #12113 of 23516
Quote:
Originally Posted by Anger Management View Post

 

Considering the fact that DS cost 150 million or so, I think it might be hard for WB to recoup the budget, not to mention making a profit off it. WB should've released it during the fall, not in the start of summer.

 

First I've heard of DS costing $150 million. I thought it was budgeted around $60 to $80 million.

post #12114 of 23516

All of us, myself included, shoulda seen this coming.

 

Held off on footage, save for production stills, for the longest time and only put one trailer a month and half before release. Never a good sign.

post #12115 of 23516
Quote:
Originally Posted by The Prankster View Post

But even if you had no idea Dark Shadows is a TV show--and I'm sure a lot of people don't--it looks like classic Burton stuff, which tends to do well, so why not this time?
 

 

Well, it hasn't exactly bombed yet or anything. 10 M is still a respectable Friday (and of course is already doing well overseas). It was never going to open as big as Chocolate Factory or Alice in Wonderland because of the popularity behind those titles. This is leaning more towards Corpse Bride and Sweeney Todd in being more macabre with humor. Both slightly disappointed at the box office around 50 M but this should at least approach 100 M depending on the coming weeks and considering there's nothing else like it coming out.

post #12116 of 23516
Quote:
Originally Posted by EvilTwin View Post

 

First I've heard of DS costing $150 million. I thought it was budgeted around $60 to $80 million.

 

According to Box Office Mojo, DS costs 150 million.

 

http://boxofficemojo.com/movies/?id=darkshadows.htm

post #12117 of 23516

Dark Shadows cost $100m after tax credits.  Always trust the L.A. Times more than BoxOfficeMojo.

post #12118 of 23516

The DS release date looks all right on paper, but it's just the bad luck of opening right after a juggernaut that will make near 100 mill this weekend. I think it might be the difference between being a modest success and a disappointment. Personally, I might have gone and seen it, but right now, I'd kind of just like to see Avengers again more, which can't be a unique feeling when there's a A+ cinemascore.

 

Hell, Dark Shadows might have been a great April release. It was not marketed with a great deal of confidence, which can be a dealbreaker when the competition is almost hyper-confident.

post #12119 of 23516
Quote:
Originally Posted by The Dark Shape View Post

Dark Shadows cost $100m after tax credits.  Always trust the L.A. Times more than BoxOfficeMojo.

Nikki Finke was also tossing around $150-$175. Which I also don't believe, but whatever.

 

Regardless, they sure as shit spent a good chunk of change promoting it. It might have legs, since there's nothing on the marketplace like it, but B- Cinemascore is harsh, and ZERO young people wanna see this.

post #12120 of 23516

Finke's reporting a $44 million Saturday and $104m weekend for Avengers.

 

(Fun side note -- the previous record for biggest second Saturday belongs to Spider-Man with $30m.  The record stood for a full decade.)

post #12121 of 23516
Quote:
Originally Posted by The Dark Shape View Post

Finke's reporting a $44 million Saturday and $104m weekend for Avengers.

 

(Fun side note -- the previous record for biggest second Saturday belongs to Spider-Man with $30m.  The record stood for a full decade.)

 

It's great to see another Marvel superhero movie breaks the second Saturday record. 

post #12122 of 23516
Quote:
Originally Posted by The Dark Shape View Post

Finke's reporting a $44 million Saturday and $104m weekend for Avengers.

 

(Fun side note -- the previous record for biggest second Saturday belongs to Spider-Man with $30m.  The record stood for a full decade.)

So how far will that 44 go up given that it seems like every estimate ends up going up on this movie?

post #12123 of 23516

I've read some places that $50 million is in play.  One theater manager said his theater did over 3,000 tickets last Saturday for Avengers, and was on pace for about 2,400 yesterday.  Might be a little overly optimistic, but nothing would surprise me at this point.

post #12124 of 23516

Official weekend estimate is $103,163,000.


Edited by The Dark Shape - 5/13/12 at 8:07am
post #12125 of 23516
Quote:
Originally Posted by The Dark Shape View Post

Official weekend estimate is $103,163,000.

 

Pretty much online with the 50% drop.   I'm so, so curious to see what TDKR does.    

post #12126 of 23516

These numbers are insane. Next weekend it could be over half a billion domestic. Only three films have done that (unadjusted). Two were directed by James Cameron.

post #12127 of 23516

Yeah...is it completely insane to say this could beat Titanic domestically? Or even Avatar?
 

post #12128 of 23516

It might be insane, but I really want it to beat Avatar.  Because I'm PEH-TEE.... and...

post #12129 of 23516
Quote:
Originally Posted by The Prankster View Post

Yeah...is it completely insane to say this could beat Titanic domestically? Or even Avatar?
 

 

Gonna depend on the drops.  A straight 50% in the second weekend is actually pretty awesome considering the colossal amount it made in the first weekend.  If it were truly "front loaded" we'd probably be looking at closer to 60% or more.  Plus the way the estimates are going, it might even be a little less than 50%.  Either way it probably simply wouldn't have been realistic for Avengers to NOT have a close to 50% drop this weekend.

 

Now here's the thing:  Avengers second weekend take is larger than Avatar's first weekend take, but in order to have any chance at matching or beating it, it's going to have to basically have a 25% or less drop -next- weekend, and then even smaller drops from there, while maintaining strong weekday sales.

 

The problem is that Avengers is going to have films booting it out of the premium 3D theaters a lot sooner than Avatar did (which basically had the 3D and IMAX theaters completely to itself from opening all the way until....March, I think it was?  Even Battleship is going to steal some of those screens from it, then Men In Black 3, then Prometheus, etc.... etc....

 

So ultimately...it's pretty unlikely it'll beat Avatar or likely even Titanic unless they do a re-release later in the year/next year/whatever.  It's probably got 3rd place in the bag, though.

post #12130 of 23516
Quote:
Originally Posted by The Prankster View Post

Yeah...is it completely insane to say this could beat Titanic domestically? Or even Avatar?
 

 

I wouldn't say it's insane to say that, but it's very unlikely.  

 

Those films played fucking forever and slowly built momentum that increased as time went on.  Avengers is still semi-front loaded, it's just that it's spilling over into the second weekend because of people who couldn't see it first weekend because of sold out screenings.  People need to remember Avatar and Titanic did not have massive openings...they were slow burns.  These huge immediate numbers for Avengers means that it is very front loaded, albeit with lots of spillage.  

post #12131 of 23516

Titanic and Avatar also opened in relatively fallow periods for new releases.  There wasn't a string of future blockbusters waiting for them in the weeds.

post #12132 of 23516

It's kinda dumb of me to act like I know anything, but it seems to me it definitely has third place in the bag, right?  I mean, even if it had done 90 this weekend, I thought it was still on track for at least 550ish.  I think it'll cross 600 domestic eventually.

post #12133 of 23516
Quote:
Originally Posted by Bailey View Post

It's kinda dumb of me to act like I know anything, but it seems to me it definitely has third place in the bag, right?  I mean, even if it had done 90 this weekend, I thought it was still on track for at least 550ish.  I think it'll cross 600 domestic eventually.

Yeah, I'd say third place is a lock but I think that's it.

 

I'm always surprised by how big the jump is between Titanic and whatever is number three. There's $855m between Titanic and Deathly Hallows II. That's a colossal jump.  

post #12134 of 23516

Titanic is $600 million domestic, right? That..really doesn't seem out of reach. Avengers is almost two-thirds of the way there already. You're right that we're entering blockbuster territory, but Battleship looks weak, the Dictator is counter-programming just like Dark Shadows, and even Men in Black 3 doesn't seem like the sure-fire juggernaut it might have been. It seems entirely possible for Avengers to remain #1 for most of the month, and even when it sinks below that, it's going to keep making money. And it sounds like Disney is throwing its weight around to procure more screens from the various theaters.

 

It'll cross $400 million domestic by this Thursday, it'll probably be up to $500 million by the same time the week after, when the competition really starts to get serious...if it can hang on even a little I think $600 mill is within reach.
 

ETA: Hmm, OK, Titanic is $658 million. I agree that'll be tough, but again, doesn't seem completely out of reach.

 

Man, the discrepancy between Dark Knight domestic and foreign is weirdly huge. It just didn't catch on overseas. Avengers has already passed it worldwide but is still a long way from beating it domestic.

post #12135 of 23516
Quote:
Originally Posted by Damon Houx View Post

These numbers are insane. Next weekend it could be over half a billion domestic. Only three films have done that (unadjusted). Two were directed by James Cameron.

 

Nah.  It's going to do about 11 on Monday, down to 7-ish on Thursday.  Next weekend will be around 50-55.  Best case scenario after next weekend is 475.  If my math is right, AVENGERS is on pace for about 560-575.

 

Between this and DARK KNIGHT RISES' chances at exploding, this is like box office Christmas.  Enjoy it while it lasts, guys.

 

Quote:
Originally Posted by The Prankster View Post

Man, the discrepancy between Dark Knight domestic and foreign is weirdly huge. It just didn't catch on overseas. Avengers has already passed it worldwide but is still a long way from beating it domestic.

 

To be fair, DARK KNIGHT hit before the overseas explosion really took place.  TDKR will make more than TDK outside the U.S.

post #12136 of 23516
Quote:
Originally Posted by Richard Dickson View Post

Titanic and Avatar also opened in relatively fallow periods for new releases.  There wasn't a string of future blockbusters waiting for them in the weeds.

 

To be fair, Avatar did contend with Sherlock Holmes and Alvin and the Chipmunks which both made over 200 M domestic.

 

 

Quote:
Originally Posted by The Prankster View Post

Man, the discrepancy between Dark Knight domestic and foreign is weirdly huge. It just didn't catch on overseas. Avengers has already passed it worldwide but is still a long way from beating it domestic.

 

 

None of the Batman movies have been particularly popular overseas but its jump from Batman Begins is what was impressive. Begins made "only" 167 M overseas and The Dark Knight made 468 M which is a pretty huge jump considering.

post #12137 of 23516
Quote:
Originally Posted by mcnooj82 View Post

It might be insane, but I really want it to beat Avatar.  Because I'm PEH-TEE.... and...

 

...small? Diminutive? Hold on, it's coming to me...

 

Anyway, forget Avengers and DKR. You all know the movie that's going to bury them both is Katy Perry: Part of Me.

 

You also all know the reason for Dark Knight's success was Eric Roberts, right? It was his time.

post #12138 of 23516

Actually, if you look at the figures, most comic book hero movies make most of their profits   in the US/Canada market. ONe of the things that surprised people in the industry about the Avengers is that it will make the bulk of it's money overseas.That is unusual for a Super Hero based movie.

post #12139 of 23516
Quote:
Originally Posted by Martin Blank View Post

You also all know the reason for Dark Knight's success was Eric Roberts, right? It was his time.

 

biggrin.gif

 

Seriously though, how long before the "Avengers only made that much money because..." argument. We've had;

 

Avatar only made that much money because of 3-D

Dark Knight only made that much money because of Heath Ledger

Titanic only made that much money because of teenage girls

Gone with the Wind only made that much money because Americans are racist

etc...

post #12140 of 23516

Avengers only made that much money because of Cobie Smulders. You know how many people watch How I Met Your Mother, man?

post #12141 of 23516
Quote:
Originally Posted by User_32 View Post

 

biggrin.gif

 

Seriously though, how long before the "Avengers only made that much money because..." argument. We've had;

 

Avatar only made that much money because of 3-D

Dark Knight only made that much money because of Heath Ledger

Titanic only made that much money because of teenage girls

Gone with the Wind only made that much money because Americans are racist

etc...

 

Gone With the Wind made money because American had their passions inflamed by Clark Gable's reckless use of the word DAMN!!!

post #12142 of 23516
Quote:
Originally Posted by The Dark Shape View Post

To be fair, DARK KNIGHT hit before the overseas explosion really took place.  TDKR will make more than TDK outside the U.S.

 

Except that, on the all-time Worldwide list, it's below movies that came out before AND after it. Titanic, LOTR: ROTK, and the third POTC all vastly outdrew it overseas.

post #12143 of 23516
Quote:
Originally Posted by User_32 View Post

None of the Batman movies have been particularly popular overseas but its jump from Batman Begins is what was impressive. Begins made "only" 167 M overseas and The Dark Knight made 468 M which is a pretty huge jump considering.

 

The Dark Knight Rises will top that internationally.

post #12144 of 23516

TDK was much, much more talky than The Avengers, and TDK really only had two show-stopping set pieces, one of which (China) was pretty short.  That to me, explains the relatively weak international box office.  Avengers has two very solid action sequences that are both about 30 minutes long - it's much easier for kids and non-English speakers to follow. In fact, you barely need to follow the plot of The Avengers to enjoy the movie - Aliens attack earth and the good guys fight back.  Spoiler Alert: Good guys win.

 

As crazy as it sounds, probably the things that will sell TDKR overseas are A) a flying car B) ass-hugging Catwoman pants.  These are the same things which are oddly shoehorned into the trailer to sell the movie to US families with older kids, since otherwise the movie looks about as fun as "The Day After"

post #12145 of 23516
Quote:
Originally Posted by The Prankster View Post

 

Except that, on the all-time Worldwide list, it's below movies that came out before AND after it. Titanic, LOTR: ROTK, and the third POTC all vastly outdrew it overseas.


Your point being?  Superhero movies tend to be more popular in the U.S., and it hit before the worldwide explosion.  Hence why it made more money in the States and why TDKR, post-worldwide explosion, will outgross TDK overseas, even if it makes less domestically.

 

AVENGERS' overseas total is being inflated by 3D.  Outside of the States, people still go nuts for the format.  See also: PIRATES 4, SAW 3D, FINAL DESTINATION 4/5, HARRY POTTER AND THE DEATHLY HALLOWS PT. 2.  Movies with big overseas jumps thanks to 3D.


THE HOBBIT is going to be crazy scary in December.

post #12146 of 23516

My question is how much will the international save Amazing Spider-Man's ass?

post #12147 of 23516
Quote:
Originally Posted by The Dark Shape View Post


Your point being?  Superhero movies tend to be more popular in the U.S., and it hit before the worldwide explosion.  Hence why it made more money in the States and why TDKR, post-worldwide explosion, will outgross TDK overseas, even if it makes less domestically.

 

AVENGERS' overseas total is being inflated by 3D.  Outside of the States, people still go nuts for the format.  See also: PIRATES 4, SAW 3D, FINAL DESTINATION 4/5, HARRY POTTER AND THE DEATHLY HALLOWS PT. 2.  Movies with big overseas jumps thanks to 3D.


THE HOBBIT is going to be crazy scary in December.

 

Exactly. I'm not particularly fond of 3D, but its impact on foreign box office is undeniable. And TDKR will not have any 3D, which means that it will handicap its abilty to maximize its box office revenue, and I for one don't think the family crowd will flock to see it like they're doing with The Avengers, if the latest trailer is any indication. It will make its money with the fanboys for sure, but to chase TA's earning it will need to be more family-friendly, and it doesn't seemed that way, even with a flying car as the money shot of the trailer.

post #12148 of 23516

Batmans gonna frikkin own the overseas box office guys, that thing will be just as huge everywhere else as it'll be in the US.

post #12149 of 23516

The "families won't see The Dark Knight Rises" argument is non-sense. Exact same things were said after Iron Man exploded and that question was posed about The Dark Knight. Yet...families/little kids went. Like they did for Batman Begins and will for The Dark Knight Rises.

post #12150 of 23516

What's the over/under on domestic?

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