CHUD NUMBERS: Box Office Discussion Thread - Page 248

Say what you will about Scott's 00's track record, it has to be the longest sustained streak as an A-list director in his whole career. It's easy to forget that before Gladiator put him back on the map as Mr Sweeping Visual Epic he'd been looking pretty aimless and borderline washed up for a long time. That movie was pretty much the last chance saloon. He might've had flops since, but he's never come close to totally slipping out of relevance the way he seemed to for much of the 90's.

IYeah, if we're talking simply box office here he seems to hit really big at the beginning of the decade then taper off. Every. Single. Decade.

That is a hell of a fucking career, I have to say. Just goddamn spectacular. Even the bad movies are interesting and entertaining.

Crazy to think half that body of work was done past the age of 60. And it's probably one of the most restlessly genre-hopping filmographys this side of Soderbergh.

I've long felt that Scott has three or four great iconic movies and a bunch of decent/good ones (and some shit ones). I think, one more great one and he'll have done a man's job. I don't know if we'll get one but fingers crossed between Prometheus and that Cormac McCarthy project he's still got some gas in the tank.

Would it be accurate to say that Daniel Craig doesn't have that much of a instant draw among audiences? They watched DRAGON TATTOO because it was a Fincher/Book adaption. COWBOYS because of the Scifi aspect and Harrison Ford?

Yes....yes it would.

Yep, sad but true.  That might change after he exits the role on down the road, but I suspect it will hold for the time being.  Hell, even Connery's career outside of the franchise really didn't start to take off until the mid-80s....almost 20 years after he debuted in the role.  Dragon Tattoo and Tintin aside, Craig just needs to be a bit pickier about his projects between 007 outings.  Leave stuff like Dream House, Defiance, and Cowboys & Aliens to others. 

And stop angling for more franchises!  Save that shit for when you are no longer Bond!  He's had two failed attempts already and Dragon Tattoo could end up being a third if Sony ends up deciding not to pursue the sequels.

A litany of us being very, very wrong

I was curious and decided to comb through our April posts and find our predictions for what Avengers would do. I used the Movie Moan podcast as well. 

• Greg Clark - Less money than Hunger Games, won't beat HP's OW
• Phil from Movie Moan- 120 opening / 320 domestic
• HarleyQuinn22 - limp to 300
• FilmNerdJamie - 340 (125 opening)
• Shawn from Movie Moan - 350
• User_32 - +/- 400
• Ambler - Iron Man numbers (318 million)
• Dark Shape - 350-375, 60% drop second weekend, 161OW
• Arjen Rudd - 355
• Sebastian OB- Definitely 400
• MikeI - 200M opening is crazy, 145 OW
• felix - 360 domestic
• CreepyThinMan - easily over 400

Sadly, CreepyThinMan had the most optimistic and therefore the most accurate prediction.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Paul C 

Say what you will about Scott's 00's track record, it has to be the longest sustained streak as an A-list director in his whole career. It's easy to forget that before Gladiator put him back on the map as Mr Sweeping Visual Epic he'd been looking pretty aimless and borderline washed up for a long time. That movie was pretty much the last chance saloon. He might've had flops since, but he's never come close to totally slipping out of relevance the way he seemed to for much of the 90's.

I don't think he's ever had a flop.  Just a quick look on boxofficemojo and all his movies at least broke even, if you take in account World Wide and Domestic B.O. 

Quote:

Originally Posted by The Rain Dog 

 

Nah if you recall when Del Toro jumped ship the film was still being talked about as if it may end up being another year or two away from production because of the whole MGM rights issue. Del Toro made what looked like a pretty understandable decision at the time.

Wasn't it Cameron who pushed Del Toro not to do the Hobbit?

Found it:

"I was telling him for a long time to get out of that thing because there is only room for one captain on the ship," Cameron says. "Instinctively I knew that Peter was going to take over and do the movie. Guillermo, to his credit, didn't listen to me and wanted to do continue and had some great designs - and I have seen all the designs."

"Of course he would have done a spectacular job, but don't we want to see Peter do it? He should do it and Guillermo should do his thing. That's what I told both of them - you should just stay in your corners."

Quote:

Originally Posted by MikeI 

A litany of us being very, very wrong

 

Sadly, CreepyThinMan had the most optimistic and therefore the most accurate prediction.

"Nobody knows anything... except CreepyThinMan."

- William Goldman

So how about that Men in Black 3 ? The first two did 50 M opening and that was 15 and 10 years ago respectively so this should make at least that amount this weekend, right? Anything below 50 M would be a disappointment. 

I don't know.  The second wasn't that great, and the BO sorta reflected that relatively speaking.  It's also quite a while ago, so I could see it not being that big a draw, at least domestically.  Useless sequel way after the iron's gone cold and all that.

One thing I've learned in the last fifteen years is that Will Smith has a seemingly endless fanbase that'll watch him in any old shit, he's as teflon coated and as sure a bet as Adam Sandler.

True.  But, will it be enough?  How high is the budget anyhow?

Quote:

Originally Posted by The Rain Dog 

One thing I've learned in the last fifteen years is that Will Smith has a seemingly endless fanbase that'll watch him in any old shit, he's as teflon coated and as sure a bet as Adam Sandler.

Unless he's committing jellyfish suicide in Seven Pounds.

That movie grossed $168M worldwide.

If the promotional screening I went to tonight was any indication, MIB is still a draw for kids. Or parents who already have five billion kids just like free screenings.

Little bit of A, and a little bit of B.  The cartoon was actually pretty solid.

They probably could have just pulled material from that for movies if they were allowed to.

Quote:

Originally Posted by MikeI 

A litany of us being very, very wrong

 

I was curious and decided to comb through our April posts and find our predictions for what Avengers would do. I used the Movie Moan podcast as well. 

 

 

• Greg Clark - Less money than Hunger Games, won't beat HP's OW
• Phil from Movie Moan- 120 opening / 320 domestic
• HarleyQuinn22 - limp to 300
• FilmNerdJamie - 340 (125 opening)
• Shawn from Movie Moan - 350
• User_32 - +/- 400
• Ambler - Iron Man numbers (318 million)
• Dark Shape - 350-375, 60% drop second weekend, 161OW
• Arjen Rudd - 355
• Sebastian OB- Definitely 400
• MikeI - 200M opening is crazy, 145 OW
• felix - 360 domestic
• CreepyThinMan - easily over 400

 

Sadly, CreepyThinMan had the most optimistic and therefore the most accurate prediction.

Ahem. I was pretty adamant that it would cross 400 as well.

What can I say, I'm not usually right about these things, so let me have my moment.

SHARE IT WITH CTM!!!

Besides the unpredictable nature of when a true box office phenomenon will hit, CTM also has the additional handicap of being clinically insane; so I think we have to give him a little more credit than you guys.

Quote:

Originally Posted by The Prankster 

 

Ahem. I was pretty adamant that it would cross 400 as well.

 

What can I say, I'm not usually right about these things, so let me have my moment.

Apologies, Prankster, I only checked April's posts through the opening and didn't see a prediction. I did have to scan about 450 posts though so I suppose I may have missed one (is there an antonym for humblebrag? Or is this even the opposite of that?)

GO TO YOUR ROOM.

I mostly did it in the context of the people saying "Oh yeah, DKR is going to TROUNCE the Avengers" and me arguing otherwise.

Speaking of which...what do we think of DKR's chances now? Or do we want to go down that road again?
 

Depends on your expectations. Trumping Avengers in terms of opening weekend numbers? (No but will get close) Overall? (Nope) Does it break $400M? (Easy) $500M? (Possible) $1B WW? (Yep).

Meanwhile, Avengers did $5.6 million yesterday and passed Star Wars for #5 on the all-time domestic box office list.  It's also #4 all-time world-wide, and Disney's highest-grossing release ever.

Quote:

Originally Posted by FilmNerdJamie 

Depends on your expectations. Trumping Avengers in terms of opening weekend numbers? (No but will get close) Overall? (Nope) Does it break $400M? (Easy) $500M? (Possible) $1B WW? (Yep).

Top's out at 465M.

Book it.

Have it at $440M myself.

Figured we're looking at $180-190M 3-day.

What I'm interested in seeing is whether The Avengers can beat Titanic domestically. It'll be a big stretch, for sure, but it doesn't seem impossible. (Worldwide, it doesn't seem to have a shot, but it hasn't opened in China or Japan yet, so who knows?)
 

It would be worth it for The Avengers to beat Avatar if only so we can get a card like these in the grand tradition

Now I wonder if Cameron wrote himself a letter...

Besides, he's too busy setting up asteroid moon bases powered by the rage of sharks to pay attention to Hollywood anymore.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Greg Clark 

Now I wonder if Cameron wrote himself a letter...

 

Dear Jim, YOU FUCKING RULE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Love, Jim.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Greg Clark 

Now I wonder if Cameron wrote himself a letter...

Jim, Congratulations! You've done it again! Your pal, Jim. 

EDIT: Haha, beat me!

Someone asked about MIB 3's budget.  Most sources give it as 250 Million production costs, plus at least another 100 Million for marketing. 

Yes, Will Smith is the biggest draw around, but if it gets bad or even tepid WOM and reviews, even Smith might not be able to pull MIB3 into the black.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Greg Clark 

Now I wonder if Cameron wrote himself a letter...

 

Besides, he's too busy setting up asteroid moon bases powered by the rage of sharks to pay attention to Hollywood anymore.

Someone really needs to do a mock-up of Cameron as Blofeld.

Has anyone else noticed that — much like the TV spots for Ghost Protocol — the TV spots for Rock of Ages barely show Tom Cruise?

I know it's a supporting role this time, but man, at one time they would've sold the shit out of him being in a movie. Not any more.

Maybe they want to keep his exact look a surprise?

As someone who grew up in the 80's, I have no interest in Rock of Ages. Glamrock will forever be a blight on humanity, nostalgia for hair metal is like fondly looking back at that time you had diarrhea for 3 days.

Quote:

Originally Posted by dudalb 

Someone asked about MIB 3's budget.  Most sources give it as 250 Million production costs, plus at least another 100 Million for marketing. 

Yes, Will Smith is the biggest draw around, but if it gets bad or even tepid WOM and reviews, even Smith might not be able to pull MIB3 into the black.

My guess is that it will scoot into the black for global grosses, but barely. The "sense of obligation" canard I've read re: TDKR seems far more applicable to MIB3. Other than kids, is anyone really, really excited about this?

I expect AVENGERS to win this weekend again. I'm actually hoping it does.

Quote:

Originally Posted by MichaelM 

 

I expect AVENGERS to win this weekend again. I'm actually hoping it does.

Avengers is looking at between 30-35 million (maybe a little more with Memorial Day's influence, but not much). I would be shocked if MIB3 doesn't beat that.

Quote:

Originally Posted by 3nnui 

As someone who grew up in the 80's, I have no interest in Rock of Ages. Glamrock will forever be a blight on humanity, nostalgia for hair metal is like fondly looking back at that time you had diarrhea for 3 days.

....but it was so slimming!

So, GI Joe 2....is the bump up from international 3D tickets really going to cover the cost of dumping it out of theaters a month before release? I have to think all the ancillary advertisements tied into the movie can't be stopped at this point. Cereal boxes and slurpee cups have all been created and likely shippped. I wonder if McDonalds will have happy meal toys for a movie that won't come out for a year?

Quote:

Originally Posted by MikeI 

 

Avengers is looking at between 30-35 million (maybe a little more with Memorial Day's influence, but not much). I would be shocked if MIB3 doesn't beat that.

You know what? You're right. MIB 3 will likely win the weekend, due it being the new dog on the block. Here's hoping AVENGERS come in a close second.

MIB3 has got to take in around 650 Million minimum world wide to just break even (given that the studio only gets roughly half the box office take world wide;the other half going to the theaters owners cut,distribution costs, local taxes and fees and other overhead expenses) Unless it is really,really delievers in a way that MIB 2 did not it's in trouble. Yeah, Will SMith sells tickets but MIB3 will have to sell a lot more then the usual Smith vehical does to get into the black.

As for the decision to put back GI Joe Retaliation a whole year for 3D conversion this is the dumbest move I have seen any studio make for some time. Whatever extra bucks they hope to get by adding 3D is going to be less than all the marketing money they have just flushed down the toilet with this move. ANd they will have to start all over selling the movie again next year. I could easily them breaking the record for money spent marketing a film on this thing.Not to mention a huge backlash frorm the fanbase,which is furious. Yeah,most of them will still come next March but with lowered expectations, which will damage the  Word Of Mouth,which is important in selling a film like this.

Idiotic move. The Irony is the marketing was working;it was making GI JOe look much better then the first, but now Paramount/Hasbro just tossed that in the crapper as well.

Between Battleship bombing and now this fiasco,I would say that Hasbro's attempts to break into film production are off to a really shitty start.They should stick to making toys because as film producers they seem to be hopeless.

After seeing this backlash. Think they'll backtrack and change their minds?

You don't decide on a 3D conversion a month out.  They clearly think they have more serious problems with the film, ones that aren't going to be affected by fan outcry.

I see MIB 3 doing about 70 this weekend.

Man nobody was close with those predictions. You never really know, but i started sensing the possibilities of something huge a few weeks before 'Avengers" opened, and it's  surpassing even my expectations. What a monster of a hit this is turning out to be.