CHUD NUMBERS: Box Office Discussion Thread - Page 250

Braves trailers look sucky? Don't we like to whine when trailers show too much of a movie?

 

I think it looks fucking great personally.

I have a tendency to overpredict Pixar movies, and animated films in general are down a bit lately.  Hence my 250 'cap' for Brave.

My prediction for Brave was based solely on the fact that it doesn't seem that appealing to me.

A sequel no one asked for to a film that no one liked under-performed?  SHOCKING!

 

That seems to be most peoples context for negative predictions frankly.

I'll never understand the hate CARS gets. Never saw 2 though.

I don't understand the hate either. Maybe its connection to NASCAR and auto racing that pseudo intellectuals just have to hate?  The core story is damn good and in the end it's a very strong and entertaining story.  I'll say the sequel is pretty decent and a fun spy flick.  I just found it int resting that for a spy flick PIXAR decided to use their Cars characters.  But the easy answer to that is simple, PIXAR made billions off of the toys. Might as well keep that gravy train going.   Concerning BRAVE, I feel that it's going to be a hit and it'll have longer running legs than Madagascar 3.

 

In its own right Madagascar 3 is a pretty fun film. If you enjoyed the first 2 then you'll love this one.

It's because Cars is very specifically a kids film rather than a "film for all ages".

 

...which also explains its massive massive bank with the whole toy thing.

I wouldn't say Cars is made specifically more for kids than any of their other films really. I do agree Cars 2 was a misfire. Their only misfire. But the first film still has a lot of heart to it.

 

Heart yes. Brains? Not so much. It's a gentle, simple, straight-forward reworking of Doc Hollywood - which is fine, but it most definitely is for the little'uns more than say, an Incredibles or even Monsters Inc was.

CARS is fine for what it is...completely unchallenging and predictable entertainment. The sequel is irredeemable garbage.

The problem with Cars is that it has the same pandering feel as early Dreamworks movies. Bad covers of pop songs and so forth. Plus, Larry the fucking Cable Guy. Also, the world of the movie makes no damn sense.
 

 

I have to admit this is part of it for me, though I don't think I count as a "pseudo intellectual."  And whether it's a lack of imagination or not, 90 minutes of talking cars and all the leaps of logic and willing suspension of disbelief needed for that world is just too much for me.  

Ah you missed the gritty realism of The Incredibles and Ratatouille.

 

I think it's fair to say that the Incredibles and Ratatouille are one-two steps removed from reality while Cars is 5-6.

It ain't great but it ain't a great black stain to PIXAR's name as far as I'm concerned. I'll easily take it over the plethora of animated family films released by other studios.

If everything else Pixar didn't exist, Cars would be perfectly fine. But coming from that studio, it was clearly a step down from what they're capable of. It doesn't even feel like a Pixar movie.
 

PROMETHEUS UK IMAX Pre-sales doing well.

http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/news/ridley-scott-prometheus-BFI-Imax-record-330052

Cars was easy to overlook. But the sequel is legit bad, and it's kind of weird to see a legit bad Pixar movie. If you're grading on a curve, Cars 2 is so far below the studio standard it's pretty much impossible to defend.

Brave ads aren't killing the world (although I do think they look all right), but I've always maintained Pixar has terrible trailers. Wall-E and Incredibles are the only ones I would even call good. I mean, they sell the premise and the characters to a wide audience, but to my jaded eyes, they always look much dumber and broader than they end up being.

Cars was really long and boring. I dont mind if you pander to kids but if you do that, dont bore them to death. Most Pixar films have been rewatchable in our house....some of them endlessly, Cars is not one of them.

Snow White ($180m) - Hot cast, exciting visuals, and it seems to be playing to all types.  Big win for the studio and a franchise-starter.

 

Madagascar 3 ($190m) -  Smash hit.  Done deal.

 

Prometheus ($155m) - A grower, not a shower.  It will (hopefully) be in the black and a little more domestically, as well as turn a nice profit overseas.

 

Rock of Ages ($85m) - I'll be really surprised if this sees triple-digits.

 

That's My Boy ($120m) - Fuck Adam Sandler.  Out of his past nine comedies, only two haven't crossed the 100m barrier.  One was too offbeat (Funny People) and the other looked shittier than usual (Jack & Jill).  But yeah, fuck Adam Sandler.

 

Abraham Lincoln ($50m) - Crash & burn, baby!  Good luck making back that 70m budget in theaters, Fox!

 

Brave ($200m) - I'm hedging my bets on this one.  I think it looks fantastic, but I've heard nothing but crickets whenever the trailers played in theaters and the customers at my job that have mentioned it in my presence seem iffy on it.  I think people will turn out because it is Pixar, not because they think it looks compelling.  If word-of-mouth is great, then I will gladly concede my bad prediction.  I don't think this is going to be one of their larger moneymakers though, especially since only five (out of twelve) Pixar features to date have crossed the 250m marker.

 

Seeking a Friend ($55m) - Sure, whatever.

 

Magic Mike ($70m) - Tatum already pleased both sexes this year (Jump Street, Vow) and I'd say this will be Hit #3.  Considering the budget is only 5m, there's no way this will turn out badly.  Plus the trailer is playing like gangbusters.

 

Ted ($170m) - Bend over America, here comes Seth MacFarlane again............this time in theaters!

 

People Like Us ($35m) - Pine is lucky he has Star Trek and a potential second franchise (Jack Ryan) to hold onto if he keeps picking projects like this to star in.

 

Madea ($70m) - Madea........with Eugene Levy & Tom Arnold in tow.  Oh the hilarity!

Still holding out for Madea, Big Momma & the Klumps Save the World.

I felt the same way, while I don't mind auto racing. A film about talking cars, that raced and did whatever just was a very hard sell for me.  When I did see it, I enjoyed it for what it was. But it's the lessor of all PIXAR films.  But in it's defense, I feel the film gets way more hate then it deserves.

 

I firmly believe that Abraham Lincoln will pull in over $100 million, but just barely. Maybe like the tip.

June predictions. I can/will update this until Wednesday, May 30.

 

Green are most optimistic predictions for a film, red most pessimistic. Only outright predictions will be included on the list (no contingencies or relative predictions).

 

Click to embiggen

I'm going to predict $250 million or better for Snow White. I think this is the year of the female-oriented action/genre movie, with Hunger Games starting a ripple, Avengers feeding it to an extent, and Brave keeping it up in the coming months (even Prometheus might feed into it). I think any movie that plays to this stuff is going to do well, including Snow White. The female audience is galvanized into seeing movies right now, and crucially, these are all movies dudes want to see too.

 

It is kind of funny that, after years of being kind of blinkered about female characters, Hollywood seems to be spontaneously jumping on the action-chick bandwagon. Maybe it's because they saw The Hunger Games coming...I dunno. But I like it.

I don't care how much Prometheus makes.  I can't believe the film even exists...that's enough for me.

 

Plus it wont make or break Scott.

Yeah, wild success or failure might determine his next project, but big or small, he do something interesting. The only person who really stands to lose is Noomi Rapace, and you know, audiences.

Yeah, whether Prometheus succeeds or fails I can't really see it affecting his plans for Blade Runner 2.

Not holding my breath on Blade Runner 2.

Blade Runner 2 depends on if the script works.  I'm sure Ridley has an interested financial entity already, either a studio or independent company, otherwise they wouldn't have hired Fancher to write a draft.  He'll have no problem getting major talent to sign up, so again, it depends on the script and if it can be done for a price.  I hope he gets Doug Trumbull back for the VFX.

Pretty sure Scott's going to be jumping right into that that Cormac McCarthy project with Brad Pitt anyway.

 

Unless those Imax numbers are a big red herring I highly doubt it's going to damage many careers even if it isn't a sensation. Though I am starting to wonder how the geek world will react if Prometheus isn't the instant genre classic everyone wants and just turns out to be a glorified Alien spin-off.

 

Beautiful!

 

 

Yep, The Counselor shoots this summer.  I believe Pitt is only cameoing or at least in a small supporting role.  Sassy Fassy is in the lead.  Beyond that, Scott has Gertrude Bell with Angelina Jolie that is mostly ready-to-go as well.  Assuming everything goes well with Blade Runner 2....and I don't know why it wouldn't....I'm not expecting it to hit theaters until around 2015.  Ridley is going to take his time with that one.

 

No one should come out too hurt if Prometheus takes a nosedive.  Best case scenario?  It makes money and warrants that follow-up that Ridley keeps bringing up.  Worst case?  Another solo Alien film or the oft-rumored Colonial Marine-filled AVP 3 hit theaters on down the line in another attempt to keep the franchise going.  Career-wise though, no one is really in danger of losing their current status in the industry.

 

Nah, I get your point. I just find talking cars incredibly boring and unable to sustain the suspension. It's a YMMV for sure.

I wanna be on the spreadsheet.....

 

Snow White ($85m)- all the positives people have mentioned, but I think it attempts to cross over too much, it's not necessarily for kids, girls, or guys. If it catches it may go gang busters, but it might miss as well

 

Madagascar 3 ($150m) - unfortunately, these are not good and kids deserve better.

 

Prometheus ($200m)- yeah I am a fanboy, and voting with my heart

 

Rock of Ages (75m) - I threw up in my mouth watching the commercial

 

That's My Boy ($125m) - Bob put it very well, but Sandler during the summer

 

Abraham Lincoln ($30m)- they are kidding right?

 

Brave ($200m) -  it will get there because its pixar and there really is no good competition. If I had young kids this would be a lousy summer for movies.

 

Seeking a Friend ($100m)- I am no fan of Carrel but this is an appealing premise and it should do well enough

 

Magic Mike ($50m) -  This is like Richard Gere doing American Giggalo, it could establish Tatum as a movie star if it hits. If the twightlight moms go to this in droves it could hit big, but the concept is a bit too blatant for them to be comfortable.

 

Ted ($100m) -  This is the real adam sandler comedy this summer.

 

People Like Us ($30m) - Who is it exactly who would want to see this? Is it being marketed in churches or something?

 

Madea ($75m) - Has Perry gone to this well once too often?

3nnui is added.

First Dark Knight Rises tracking is out -- mid-180s opening weekend, which is the highest tracking number ever by about $20m.

Gotta ask. What's Spider-Man at?

Holy shiznit.

 

That'd be pretty great considering no 3D. Hell, even with 3D. Hopefully it's not too far off when the time comes.

 

You... own stock?

Really? Do you? You're in a box office thread. Come on.

 

I'm in a box office thread so I root for movies to have accurate tracking?

Yup, that's exactly it.

 

110, but it doesn't specify whether that's a three, five, or six day number.

Hey, can I join the party too?

 

Snow White ($275) - I don't think I have a female friend who isn't raring for this one. And most the of the guys are now interested simply because of the cool visuals, action and sexy Theron-age in the trailer. I see no reason why this can't play strong through the month, as it's the only blockbuster aimed predominantly at the female demo. If its good, or great, I could see it hitting over $300.

 

Madagascar 3 ($165) - Eh. Parents will take their kids. Again.

 

Prometheus ($120)- I'm beyond psyched for this one, but I just don't see it playing to many outside the franchise's fanbase. It's too dark and strange to really go huge. I'm expecting District 9-ish numbers.

 

Rock of Ages ($100) - Looks terrible, but I'm giving this one the Hairspray/Mama Mia benefit of the doubt.

 

That's My Boy ($90) - Maybe a bit low, but both Jack & Jill and Just Go For It were a little on the lighter side bo-wise for Sandler. Yeah, this one's in the summer, but I'm just not feeling any interest. Could be wrong.

 

Abraham Lincoln ($60)- I can see this one doing close to Battleship numbers, but stalling out a mite quicker.

 

Brave ($240m) -  Pixar is such a trusted brand that it's pointless to doubt them. This one doesn't look to have TOY STORY 3-like bo potential, but it will probably do Tangled numbers and beyond.

 

Seeking a Friend ($50)- This just feels like it's opening at the wrong time. Could draw older movie-goers as alternative programming, but I don't see it really catching fire at all. Why isn't this a fall release?

 

Magic Mike ($60) -  A number of women I know are planning viewing parties for this one, yet I don't think its going to be a Sex & the City type draw. Soderbergh is great, but not a super-dependable mainstream-pleasing director. I have a feeling this one will open respectably but suffer from mixed word of mouth.

 

Ted ($150) -  This one's going to be big. I have that sinking feeling in my gut.

 

People Like Us ($25) - This looks like a Lifetime movie. Chris Pine needs to fire his agent. It'll be a blip.

 

Madea ($80) - In the immortal words of Wesley Snipes: "Always bet on black (audiences)."

 

Assuming 6-day...and that sounds about right. Still think it will be lower.

I think Spider-Man's going higher than most here do -- the character's just too damn popular not to make at least 230-240.

Could see as high as $225M, but that's by sheer will of 3D bump.

 

Zero buzz here and marketing has been shockingly awful. Not to mention, the butt-hurt left from Spider-Man 3 and unpopularity of rebooting and essentially remaking a 10 year blockbuster that everyone loved.

Episode29 is added. The books are open for another 28 hours

I really curious on how audiences will react to Abraham Lincoln: Vampire Hunter.

 

It won't do well for sure. But a part of me is glad this got made in the end. Geez..."ABRAHAM LINCOLN: VAMPIRE HUNTER!"