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CHUD NUMBERS: Box Office Discussion Thread - Page 253

post #12601 of 16671

MIRROR MIRROR 2: THE QUICKENING

 

The dwarves are from the planet Zeist.

 

 

Rather amazed at the opening numbers for SWATH.

post #12602 of 16671

I think it was really well sold. Sounds like the hold won't be great, but what are you gonna do?

post #12603 of 16671

Agreed, the victory is this weekend gross.

post #12604 of 16671
Quote:
Originally Posted by Arjen Rudd View Post

I think it was really well sold. Sounds like the hold won't be great, but what are you gonna do?

 

They definitely got the word out. Everyone I know who isn't a movie nerd was talking about going this week.

post #12605 of 16671
Mirror Mirror and the Huntsman
post #12606 of 16671

Have a feeling we're going to look up and Madagascar 3 wins next weekend over Prometheus.

post #12607 of 16671

I still don't really see this opening as a huge success. It seems to me that based on Comic Con and getting the trailer out while they were still filming that this was probably initially intended to be much bigger. $55 million will keep it from getting flop press, but for a $175 million film that's been heavily marketed for a year now, is it really that impressive? I was expecting more like $70 million before all the low tracking came out on Friday.
 

post #12608 of 16671
Quote:
Originally Posted by FilmNerdJamie View Post

Have a feeling we're going to look up and Madagascar 3 wins next weekend over Prometheus.

 

Well, yeah.  Madagascar 2's OW adjusts to $80m.

 

Prometheus' budget is $120-130, not $170m.  My gut says an opening around 35-40, 115-130 domestically, and a solid chunk more overseas.  $350-400+ worldwide.

post #12609 of 16671

That and Snow White & the Huntsman drops like a stone. Very mixed word of mouth.

 

Apparently they've already started screening Amazing Spider-Man. Noticed El Mayimbe gave mixed to negative "Lower your expectations, people" tweets last week. Thing is...those expectations honestly weren't that high to begin with.

post #12610 of 16671

Kind of shocked Sony is screening it this early if the brass hates it.

post #12611 of 16671

He saw both according to his feed.

post #12612 of 16671
Quote:
Originally Posted by The Dark Shape View Post

Kind of shocked Sony is screening it this early if the brass hates it.

 

Even the studio hates it?  Ugh.

post #12613 of 16671

35 Million for Prometheus domestically.

 

I can remember a time when only the domestic gross seemed to matter/was reported on. Do movies have wider initial releases nowadays?

post #12614 of 16671

Starting to think a $200M opening is in serious play for The Dark Knight Rises.

post #12615 of 16671
Quote:
Originally Posted by Navidson View Post

35 Million for Prometheus domestically.

 

I can remember a time when only the domestic gross seemed to matter/was reported on. Do movies have wider initial releases nowadays?

 

Many do, some don't. Domestic remains an easier metric to use because you don't have to worry about rolling release dates, or if a movie will even open in a market at all. But as far the studios go, money is money is money.

post #12616 of 16671

Re: Spider-man - I think they changed up the screenwriters for the sequel, which many are taking as a sign that they're not thrilled with how this one turned out.
 

post #12617 of 16671

There is a hearty aroma of meh coming off that Spiderman. I don't think the marketing's been that bad, but I'm betting at this point that people are not going to like it. That said, I'd like to be wouldn't mind being wrong.

post #12618 of 16671

Prometheus took first place in 14 of its 15 markets and earned an estimated $35 million this weekend. In Russia, its $11.1 million is the third-highest opening for a Fox movie behind Avatar and Ice Age: Dawn of the Dinosaurs, and its $9.99 million debut in the U.K. is the best ever for a Ridley Scott movie. 3D was a big part of that U.K. result, as the premium-priced format accounted for 73 percent of sales. Finally, Prometheus's $7.06 million start in France is the second-best debut this year for an English-language movie behind The Avengers. Along with its U.S. opening, Prometheus expands in to 35 markets including Australia, South Korea, and Taiwan next weekend.

 

Box Office Mojo

post #12619 of 16671
What Alice in Wonderland started and now with Snow White's big opening box office, it looks like fairy tale movies aren't going away anytime soon. Next year alone we have Hansel and Gretel, Jack the Giant Killer, OZ: The Great and Powerful and the following year Maleficent. I wonder what others will get the greenlight following this weekend.
post #12620 of 16671

I don't want fairy tale movies to go away, I just want them to be good.

 

Now that the hype is gearing up for THE DARK KNIGHT RISES I'm feeling that the box office for this is really going to be staggering. By the time July rolls around shit is going to be at a fever pitch. I have a feeling all the talk of "the Ledger/Joker fatcor" and it not being able to clear TDK or THE AVENGERS is going to seem silly come August.

post #12621 of 16671
Quote:
Originally Posted by User_32 View Post

What Alice in Wonderland started and now with Snow White's big opening box office, it looks like fairy tale movies aren't going away anytime soon. Next year alone we have Hansel and Gretel, Jack the Giant Killer, OZ: The Great and Powerful and the following year Maleficent. I wonder what others will get the greenlight following this weekend.

 

 

Maybe a cable TV adaptation of FABLES? We already have GRIMM though...haven't seen it.

post #12622 of 16671

Once Upon a Time's probably closer to Fables than Grimm is.  Grimm actually gets okay by the end of the first season, but there's a lot of dumbness in the first half or so.

post #12623 of 16671

Crap.  I overestimated Snow White's take.  Bigtime.

post #12624 of 16671
Quote:
Originally Posted by FilmNerdJamie View Post

Starting to think a $200M opening is in serious play for The Dark Knight Rises.

 

I'm going to go ahead and say that 200 mil OW for TDKR is a lock.

post #12625 of 16671

And this could unseat The Avengers.

 

Its weekdays will be stronger (School being out) and midnight/single day records I see Bats taking.

post #12626 of 16671

But what about the lack of a 3D bonus? Sure this thing is meant to be seen in IMAX and those will sell out, but there are a lot less IMAX's than 3D screens. I will pop my IMAX cherry with this film (saw AVATAR in a Lie-Max).
 

post #12627 of 16671
Quote:
Originally Posted by FilmNerdJamie View Post

Starting to think a $200M opening is in serious play for The Dark Knight Rises.

 

I don't think any movie this movie will break The Avengers' OW gross, not even TDKR.

post #12628 of 16671

When it comes to OW, remember this:  The Avengers' opening day was $80 million.  The Dark Knight managed a $67 million opening day four years ago without 3D.  Add inflation, the fact it's going to open on 4x the number of IMAX screens as its predecessor, plus all the people who caught TDK from week two on, and the ones who are gonna rush this time since it's getting a 'final chapter' bump.

 

$100m opening day seems in play to me.

post #12629 of 16671
Quote:
Originally Posted by The Dark Shape View Post

When it comes to OW, remember this:  The Avengers' opening day was $80 million.  The Dark Knight managed a $67 million opening day four years ago without 3D.  Add inflation, the fact it's going to open on 4x the number of IMAX screens as its predecessor, plus all the people who caught TDK from week two on, and the ones who are gonna rush this time since it's getting a 'final chapter' bump.

 

$100m opening day seems in play to me.

 

The "inflation" bump is only 10%. You're giving all your other factors a combined $26 million dollars in one day. That seems... aggressive.

post #12630 of 16671
Quote:
Originally Posted by MikeI View Post

 

The "inflation" bump is only 10%. You're giving all your other factors a combined $26 million dollars in one day. That seems... aggressive.

 

Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Pt. 1 OD: $61 million

Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Pt. 2 OD: $91 million

 

Only an eight month difference between releases, and all accounts are that Hallows 2's 3D share was quite low.  Never underestimate the pull of 'the final chapter.'

 

(Another example of a finale bump would be Saw 3D's opening day of $10.7m handily beating Saw VI's $6.9m, but I'm not sure of the 3D share.)

post #12631 of 16671

TDRK is the movie event of the year. How it holds up in the long run box office wise is certainly in question; it may not get the kind of repeat viewing that AVENGERS is getting. But it's going to CRUSH the opening weekend. I expect all OW records to be broken.

post #12632 of 16671

Could see this hit as high as $215M.

post #12633 of 16671
Quote:
Originally Posted by Sebastian OB View Post

TDRK is the movie event of the year. How it holds up in the long run box office wise is certainly in question; it may not get the kind of repeat viewing that AVENGERS is getting. But it's going to CRUSH the opening weekend. I expect all OW records to be broken.


I wouldn't count on it. 

 

http://www.forbes.com/sites/markhughes/2012/05/07/why-the-dark-knight-rises-may-not-break-the-avengers-opening-record/

 

Bear in mind they're also reporting a 2 hour, 45 minute runtime for TDKR.  That probably means less showings per day on top of all the math in the article above.  It'll be quite a feat to increase the opening weekend audience numbers from TDK by 40% with less shows available over the course of the weekend than Avengers had (Even if it's one show per day, that adds up).

post #12634 of 16671

Ignoring the fact that a 165 minute running time is only 12 minutes longer than The Dark Knight, runtimes no longer have much of a box office effect because of the sheer number of screens available.  If The Dark Knight Rises fails to top The Avengers' OW, it'll be due to a lack of 3D.  It's going to sell more tickets during the three day period.

post #12635 of 16671
Quote:
Originally Posted by The Dark Shape View Post

Ignoring the fact that a 165 minute running time is only 12 minutes longer than The Dark Knight, runtimes no longer have much of a box office effect because of the sheer number of screens available.  If The Dark Knight Rises fails to top The Avengers' OW, it'll be due to a lack of 3D.  It's going to sell more tickets during the three day period.


We'll see.

post #12636 of 16671
Quote:
Originally Posted by The Dark Shape View Post

 

Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Pt. 1 OD: $61 million

Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Pt. 2 OD: $91 million

 

Only an eight month difference between releases, and all accounts are that Hallows 2's 3D share was quite low.  Never underestimate the pull of 'the final chapter.'

 

(Another example of a finale bump would be Saw 3D's opening day of $10.7m handily beating Saw VI's $6.9m, but I'm not sure of the 3D share.)

 

Ahh, facts released in vacuums. How tantalizing and how deceptive.

 

HP7.1 - November

HP7.2 - July

 

Quote:
Originally Posted by Sebastian OB View Post

TDRK is the movie event of the year. How it holds up in the long run box office wise is certainly in question; it may not get the kind of repeat viewing that AVENGERS is getting. But it's going to CRUSH the opening weekend. I expect all OW records to be broken.

 

It's your movie event of the year. But is it going to tap in to families the way Avengers did? Is it going to tap in to women the way Avengers did? And is it going to do both of those to such an extent that it will exceed Avengers ticket numbers by the amount necessary to beat the 3D bump?

 

Again:

 

Estimate of tickets for TDKR to pass Avengers: 29 million tickets

Avengers: 26 million tickets

TDK: 22 million tickets

 

It's possible, but I would be hesitant to throw around certainties.

post #12637 of 16671
Quote:
Originally Posted by MikeI View Post

 

Ahh, facts released in vacuums. How tantalizing and how deceptive.

 

HP7.1 - November

HP7.2 - July

 

Yes, because as New Moon topping The Dark Knight's opening day record proves, only summer films break opening day records.

 

Quote:

It's possible, but I would be hesitant to throw around certainties.

 

I will reiterate this one certainty:  The Dark Knight Rises will sell more tickets opening weekend than The Avengers.  I just don't know if that will be enough to take the record.


Current tracking has TDKR at $188m OW.

post #12638 of 16671

The families/little kids argument is odd considering you don't break the opening weekend record (like The Dark Knight did) without getting em in. Everyone knows Batman is a traditionally dark character (Ironically one of the huge concerns with Burton's film was how it was the first time someone had done Batman without the camp and yet it broke the 3-day record - check out this awesome circa early '89 video) and yet you still see Moms and little ones in attendance.

post #12639 of 16671
Quote:
Originally Posted by The Dark Shape View Post

Yes, because as New Moon topping The Dark Knight's opening day record proves, only summer films break opening day records.

 

You're absolutely right. Only about 75% of the top opening days occur in summer months. That's not a strong trend at all.

post #12640 of 16671
Quote:
Originally Posted by FilmNerdJamie View Post

The families/little kids argument is odd considering you don't break the opening weekend (like The Dark Knight did) without getting em in. Everyone knows Batman is a traditionally dark character (Ironically one of the huge concerns with Burton's film was how it was the first time someone had done Batman without the camp - check out this awesome circa early '89 video) and yet you still see Moms taking little ones in attendance.

 

But it can't just tap in to it, it has to tap really deeply into it. 

post #12641 of 16671

Batman films have broken the 3-day record more than any other franchise though. Clearly it's tapped deeply into people.

post #12642 of 16671
Quote:
Originally Posted by MikeI View Post

 

You're absolutely right. Only about 75% of the top opening days occur in summer months. That's not a strong trend at all.

 

Of the six major Batman releases, 66% of them have broken the opening weekend record.  That's not a strong trend at all.

post #12643 of 16671
Quote:
Originally Posted by MikeI View Post

 

 

It's your movie event of the year. But is it going to tap in to families the way Avengers did? Is it going to tap in to women the way Avengers did? And is it going to do both of those to such an extent that it will exceed Avengers ticket numbers by the amount necessary to beat the 3D bump?

 

 

 

No, it's not my movie event of the year. That's PROMETHEUS and sadly it's looking like I'm going to be disappointed. TDKR is THE movie event of the year. It's the water cooler event of the summer and it's the movie every fucking person on the planet is going to see opening weekend. Including you. Is it going to beat AVENGERS in the long haul? I don't know. And Shape is right, the ONLY thing that'll keep it from breaking the OW record will be the 3D bump. It certainly won't be asses in seats. 

post #12644 of 16671
Quote:
Originally Posted by The Dark Shape View Post

 

Of the six major Batman releases, 66% of them have broken the opening weekend record.  That's not a strong trend at all.

 

Actually, no. That's not a strong trend. It's a ridiculously small sample size and extends over a number of Box Office eras.

post #12645 of 16671
Quote:
Originally Posted by MikeI View Post

 

It's a ridiculously small sample size and extends over a number of Box Office eras.

 

My point exactly.  Regardless of box office era, Batman breaks records.  Including, you know, this era.

 

You're feeling a bit... fanboy to me.

post #12646 of 16671
I think what would be more irritating is if it doesn't beat Avengers and "only" makes 170M opening weekend or something, there will be some that'll try and call that number a disappointment.
post #12647 of 16671
Quote:
Originally Posted by Sebastian OB View Post

No, it's not my movie event of the year. That's PROMETHEUS and sadly it's looking like I'm going to be disappointed. TDKR is THE movie event of the year. It's the water cooler event of the summer and it's the movie every fucking person on the planet is going to see opening weekend. Including you. Is it going to beat AVENGERS in the long haul? I don't know. And Shape is right, the ONLY thing that'll keep it from breaking the OW record will be the 3D bump. It certainly won't be asses in seats. 

 

Opening week, not opening weekend for me most likely.

 

It's funny, but I am of exactly the opposite opinion. I think it will miss out on the Avengers OW, and probably won't even beat 200M. But I am pretty sure it will pass Avengers in the long run. 

post #12648 of 16671
Quote:
Originally Posted by The Dark Shape View Post

 

My point exactly.  Regardless of box office era, Batman breaks records.  Including, you know, this era.

 

You're feeling a bit... fanboy to me.

 

How so?

post #12649 of 16671

It's going to be irritating either way because it'll just be fanboy wars -- "Batman's better!  Go Batman!" / "Fuck Batman!  Go Avengers!"

 

My gut tells me TDKR does something like 190, but higher is certainly possible based on past box office happenings.

 

Quote:
Originally Posted by MikeI View Post

How so?

 

Because you come off like you have a stake.  I toss out a number (like the number of films in the series that have broken the record, which is a very legitimate stat in terms of popularity), and you essentially just say "Nope!  Irrelevant!"

 

I don't have a stake in this.  I don't want one film to beat the other.  I just look at the numbers and the precedence. 

post #12650 of 16671
Quote:
Originally Posted by User_32 View Post

I think what would be more irritating is if it doesn't beat Avengers and "only" makes 170M opening weekend or something, there will be some that'll try and call that number a disappointment.

 

If it does $170M and up (by all accounts it will), only people to call that number a disappointment are moron fanboys.

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