CHUD NUMBERS: Box Office Discussion Thread - Page 254

 

I think AVENGERS is playing like STAR WARS did back in the day. I agree with you on the kid factor and I think that's what's giving it legs; kids coming back again and again. We all know TDKR will be dark and adult and won't play to that crowd as well in the long haul. But OW every kid on the planet will be going to the new Batman movie. 

I think Avengers just ran out of gas this weekend. It's benefited by not having any worthy competition, but that's changing now.

Really?  It's still doing $20m+.  Next weekend will be $12-13m.  It's certainly going over $600m at this stage.

I'm new to this. I found it so fascinating I matched up Avengers versus the previous Marvel May releases (Iron Man 1 + 2) to see how well they correlated. 

 

It correlates strongly with Iron Man (less strongly with IM2 which dropped off a cliff).

 

First week, Avengers did 2.1x Iron Man's business

Second Week 2.0x

Third Week 1.8x

Fourth week 1.8x

Fifth weekend: 1.5x

 

Instead of the nice gradual regression to mean, it dipped. At this point in its run, Iron Man had $40M left to go, which it limped to over the course of 120 days. As the weeks go on, I expect that multiplier to get closer and closer to 1.0. I don't expect Avengers to have $80 left in the tank, or even $60. If it breaks $600 it will be because of force of will.

Still don't see how Dark Knight can beat opening weekend without the 3D bump....more screens? What is the price difference of an IMAX ticket vs. a 3D ticket vs. an IMAX 3D ticket? I bet it will sell out though...thinking of already ordering my ticket for a Friday Matinee and taking off. I think spoilers will leak into the atmosphere and the airwaves.

Also, are there any IMAX films released immediately the following weekend from Dark Knight Rises? Dark Shadows came and stole some of The Avengers IMAX showtimes when it was released the following weekend and I think that was a waste of showtimes. No one needs to see that shit in 10 stories.
 

I can only speak from my theatre, but evening IMAX prices are $16, IMAX 3D is $17, and normal 3D (realD) is $15. The benefit for TDKR in IMAX is no other release will push it out of those theatres for several weeks. Resident Evil 5 in September, nothing else I can think of before that.

All this talk about what TDKR can't hope to achieve is reminding me of the conversations about how THE HUNGER GAMES didn't have the fanbase to generate big box office numbers and how AVENGERS wasn't going to be a phenomenon because you can't just throw a bunch of heroes together and expect it to pay off. 

 

TDKR is the big dog of the summer. It's coming off of one of the most popular films of all time. It's Batman, the most popular fictional character ever. And it looks fucking awesome. To underestimate it in any way is foolish.

If anything, doubting TDKR is even MORE foolish because it's actually got precedence for being fucking hugenormous. Hunger Games and Avengers, there was room for discussion and/or speculation (well, unless you want to be a preening Mr. Smarty Pants like Sebastian). But like I've been saying for months, underestimate TDK at your own peril. I was wrong about Avengers, but I was right about Hunger Games and I'll take 2 out of three.

Is anyone actually thinking less than 180? I guess it's all about does it beat Avengers, but does that even matter, beyond the most meaningless bragging rights ever?

To be fair, we're talking about breaking OW records. Hopefully no one is stupid enough to wander in here claiming that TDKR is going to underperform. At this point it's about whether or not it does 200 mil or beyond OW.

Yeah, I'm the doubting Thomas and I'm still thinking 175-190.

 

Errr, that's quite a claim.

 

Welcome to the Internets.

You have a short memory, as this very thread full of that a couple of weeks ago.

TDKR will do well, and earn a profit. The only way it's "underperforming" is if it fails to make TDK's entire BO take and/or "loses" to AVENGERS. Both of which are stupid measuring sticks for determining whether it does well.

 

Oh, I remember. That's why I used the "at this point" qualifier. It's clear to everyone with a brain that, now that the marketing is really kicking into gear, that this is going to be a goddamn juggernaut.

 

And yeah, none of this matters. The movie is  going to make absurd bank whether it clears AVENGERS totals or not. But that's what we talk about in this thread. 

 

The real question is how it ranks with MIRROR MIRROR.

Apologies if this has been asked, but who is the viewer who sees Dark Knight Rises who DIDN'T see The Avengers?

It probably would have been me had I not seen The Avengers for free. I ended up really enjoying the film, but I've only really had a strong reaction to the first Iron Man (which I've found doesn't hold together for me upon subsequent viewings) and nothing else (I skipped Thor completely).

 

Anecdotal, but there's a guy in my office, total normal guy, not a geek in any way. He's totally stoked on TDKR but hasn't seen AVENGERS. They're out there.

That's because TDKR is SERIOUS BIDNESSSSS!!!

 

No, but joking aside, I do think it's undeniable that Nolan has managed to get many critics and filmgoers to look at this stuff as really being "about something". Whether you like that or agree with it being "about something" is immaterial, because it's not a personal opinion or even a compliment, it's just a fact that people have come away with that belief, and I do believe it factors into the whos and whys of the level of interest around it.

Sure, but there's got to be kids too young for Dark Knight that did see Avengers. The 8 and under set.

Personally, I give the edge to Avengers for no reason other than 3D, but then, it seems like records are just going to shatter forever. How far away can the first 300 million weekend be? A decade?

 

That's sort of what I'm getting at here. This summer we've had a lot of talk about what can't be done, and most of that talk has been wrong. Clearly, these records are made to be broken. If anything it's a testament to what a strong year it's been.

Lots of wee lads went to see TDK. Cripes didn't you guys flock to R rated films when you were that age?

 

All the time. I just didn't buy tickets for them.

And TDKR isn't an R-rated movie, so that's not really going to be a problem for it.

Sure, but more kids are going to see Avengers, is all. Not a lot more, but definitely more.

 

Apologies if this has been asked, but who is the viewer who sees The Avengers who DIDN'T see Iron Man 2?

-My mistake, two months ago.

 

 

Prove this.  Seriously -- some sort of proof, please.  People keep tossing out "OMG, kids aren't going to see TDKR!!", without anything to back it up other than, "Um, it's dark, so I don't think parents will take them."

I don't think this Batman character really speaks to children.

And yet, there's a whole lotta merchandise aimed at them.  I suppose they did the same thing with Aliens and Predator back in the day.

 

We're speculating here, right? We'll have proof the first weekend.

No, you won't, because nobody will have the breakdowns.  This concept is silly and has nothing to do with any numbers we've seen.   The Hunger Games was a major hit with families and it's a dark PG-13 film about children murdering each other.

As long as there are cartoons, kids will love the hell out of Batman. My 8-year old nephew (through no help of mine, I swear it) loves the hell out of Justice League and Batman: Brave and the Bold. Might TDKR be a little much for him? Maybe. I'm screening it before giving my sister the OK. But I did the same thing for Captain America and The Avengers, so if anything it just gives TDKR an extra ticket sold.

 

We had breakdowns for Avengers, why wouldn't we for TDKR?

 

 

Avengers

 

Hunger Games

 

 

So we're labeling under 25s generically as children, then?  Or do you honestly think under 25 interest in TDKR is lower than Avengers?

 

We could also get the family number which was absent from HG. And if the breakdown skews towards the over-25, it would be a strong indicator that kids were less drawn to it (or allowed to go to it).

 

I have to ask you... do you ever admit to being wrong? Or would that hurt the appeal to authority that you use for all of your arguments?

 

 

 

 

I don't claim to be an authority on anything other than the fact that I follow this stuff all the time -- I don't just catch up on box office whenever a film I'm looking forward to / really hoping fails comes out.  I am, however, unbiased.

 

You do realize that that counts as an appeal to authority, right? I know more than you because I follow this all the time, therefore my argument has more weight.

 

I wasn't drawn to this thread because of my affection for the Avengers, I was drawn to this thread because I like numbers (my Buffy code charts, for example).

 

Sure, but no more so than telling someone who's watching baseball for the second time in a year that you probably have a better grasp of a team's potential and how they tend to play.  It doesn't change how the team actually performs.

 

 

And yet you're so quick to refute numbers that don't support your position.

 

Someone watching a game for the second time in a year can make valid observations, and those observations are no less valid because they are less familiar with the teams. As part of my work, I offer advice to organizations based on nothing but the data they provide to me. If my advice was less valuable because I didn't work there every day, they wouldn't ask for it.

 

If you offer up bad numbers, I will refute them. Offer up good numbers and I will acknowledge them. For the record, four out of six does not imply that we will end up five out of seven. I don't know much about baseball (that's a lie, actually I do), but I know enough not to get worked up over a batting average when a player only has 6 at bats.

 

Indeed.  Where did I say otherwise?  I never claimed I can predict (since we're guessing) better than anyone else.  I just preach to take personal opinion out of it and to look at numbers and trends.

 

 

Ah, yes.  Four out of six means nothing, but three of the top four opening days of all time happening in summer?  That totally explains Hallows 2 having an opening day $30m higher than Hallows 1.  I apologize for thinking that four franchise films breaking the opening weekend record spread over 19 years somehow indicated a trend with the property.

BOURNE LEGACY vs MIRROR MIRROR predictions...GO!

All I'm suggesting is that a parent might take a five year old to Avengers and not Dark Knight, due to tone. I can't prove it, because it just sort of seemed like one of the 'common sense' things. But obviously you're gonna know more about it; you follow this stuff all the time.

To weigh in on the kid thing. My local cinema was packed with families for the Avengers. Young kids too.

I just don't see that with TDKR. I certainly won't be taking my girl to see it, I just don't think she'd find it enjoyable. She may even be bored for great amounts of it.

I'll sit down with her one day to watch Nolan's Batman trilogy, but not right now.

Also, despite the hype, TDK had about 20 folk for opening day at my local. Avengers packed it out.

TDKR will probably clean up, but I don't think it'll attract the same family audience. From the trailers Avengers looked fun. TDKR looks well crafted, but a bit dour. Presumably that's why they've thrown in a few jokes in the latest trailers.

But like John Snow, I know nothing

I remember hearing from other folks about not taking there young'uns to THE DARK KNIGHT d/t it being "too scary" with Heath Ledger's Joker. We don't have villain notoriety with this one, so perhaps that won't happen here. I do feel like there may be less kids in the audience in this one as well based on tone.
 

Parents have been bringing kids too young for Batman movies since the Tim Burton films. With the exception, perhaps, of the Shumacher flicks, I've thought all of the modern Batman films were too much for younger (under 10 or so) kids, but that's never stopped parents from bringing them.

 

Hell, despite the films all being rated PG-13 and there being numerous and free resources to find out exactly what potentially scary or disturbing content is in a film, too many idiot parents just say, "It's Batman. They'll be fine."

 

Reminds me of when I went to see FACE/OFF...it was a 10 PM screening on a Friday, and some jackwad brought his two daughters, both easily under the age of 10, with him and his wife. Killed my enjoyment of the film entirely right there, because every time something graphic happened onscreen, all I could think about was those two young daughters seeing it (and subsequently thinking about someone subjecting my daughters to that kind of onscreen violence). Took every ounce of self control not to go over and tell him he was a fucking idiot and a horrible excuse as a parent.

 

And common sense would be that a parent might take a five year old to Iron Man or Indiana Jones or Wall-E and not Dark Knight, but hey, look what happened in 2008.

I've seen a woman take a five-year-old to Seven.

 

 

Way late, but pretty sure Sebastian was joking.

I saw a woman bring her three young kids to Aja's The Hills Have Eyes.

 

My. God.