CHUD NUMBERS: Box Office Discussion Thread - Page 257

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Originally Posted by Navidson 

What about Pixar's Brave? I predict it winning its weekend....and if word of mouth is good, strong legs for summer.
 

Of the people that made predictions, Brave was predicted the top grosser for June by all but two people. Average guess is 236 million. (Those two predicted Prometheus and Snow White. Those two... are going to be wrong).

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Originally Posted by MikeI 

 

Of the people that made predictions, Brave was predicted the top grosser for June by all but two people. Average guess is 236 million. (Those two predicted Prometheus and Snow White. Those two... are going to be wrong).

I didn't even remember calling a number on Brave.  Oops.  Oh well, might as well go down in flames.  Last chance powerdrive!  Wooo!

Here we go...

THE AMAZING SPIDER-MAN - $275 million - I think this will underperform in Sony's eyes (if they are expecting Raimi numbers), but will still do well...........because it's Spider-Man.  Who doesn't love Spidey (aside from my wife)?  Plus it is handily positioned between Brave and Ice Age, so it will easily score the family crowd.

KATY PERRY: PART OF ME - $30 million - Outside of Michael Jackson, Hannah Montana, and Justin Bieber, these haven't done sizable business.  Then again, they really don't need to.

SAVAGES - $75 million - This looks good and the trailers seem to be playing well.  Hoping it does solid business.  Thankfully the budget was only 40.

IGE AGE: CONTINENTAL DRIFT - $195 million - The last two have almost cracked 200.  I expect this one will land in the same ballpark.

THE DARK KNIGHT RISES - $550 million - Might as well swing for the fences on this one.  There's a reason we have almost half as many releases in July as in June.

STEP UP REVOLUTION - $30 million - Each entry has made 5-10 million less than the last.  How did this get made?

THE WATCH - $120 million - I will happily be wrong on this one.

Honestly, August is going to be the most fun to predict and watch the results for.

I'm a little torn about the potential of Katy Perry: Part Of Me.  Doesn't it sort of depend on the part?  If it's her nipples, add another 40 mill.

(Don't forget to tip your waitress.)

Jackson and Bieber pulled in low 70s with their concert films......and Perry doesn't seem to be sitting at the same height of fame that she was a few years ago.  Unless she has a brand new album hitting before this (I'm too lazy to check), I can't see it hitting those numbers.  She probably should have done something like this a year ago.  Once again though, it's not like these need to pull in triple digits to be successful.

Brave will undoubtedly be the top grosser of June, but it will be interesting to see what it pulls in.  It seems to be getting mixed reviews.  I don't think I've come across any flatout negative ones, but the general consensus is that it is a lesser effort for the company. 

Anyway, for reference, here's Pixar's run to date (adjusted for inflation)...

$446.2 - Finding Nemo

$413.4 - Toy Story 3

$378.8 - Toy Story 2

$357.0 - Monsters, Inc.

$347.4 - Toy Story

$332.8 - The Incredibles

$311.0 - Up

$295.1 - Cars

$270.3 - A Bug's Life

$246.8 - WALL-E

$237.6 - Ratatouille

$189.6 - Cars 2

I'd say the average prediction on our chart for Brave is a pretty solid one.  Given the nature of the tale, I really can't see it hitting in the mid-to-high range for Pixar.  My personal prediction is probably a little low, but oh well.

I think it's hilarious that people are predicting an Oliver Stone movie will make more than 30 million dollars.

All right, I'll play for July (since it's my birthday month, I can't lose! IT'S MY BIRTHDAY.)

The Amazing Spider-Man: $195 million. The anticipation isn't there, but it's Spider-Man, so it'll still make money.  Never thought I'd see the day where Spidey wasn't the biggest event of the summer, but, here we are. It's not even top five.

Katy Perry: Part of Me: $35 million. Concert films are for fall and spring; they die in the summer.

Savages: $40 million. No buzz on it, the book it's based on may be great but it's not a selling point, and, well, neither is anyone involved. Sorry about the whole leading man career, Mr. Kitcsh. Maybe NBC will bankroll a Riggins spinoff.

Ice Age: Continental Drift: $185 million How is this at the fourth entry? This series baffles me, but there should be enough space between Brave and this that it'll hold constant with the other entries.

The Dark Knight Rises: $580 million. Every other studio got the fuck out of the way of this (remember what happened to poor Hellboy II?). Might not hit $600 due to the (blessed) lack of 3D, but everyone and their grandmother went to The Dark Knight, and everyone and their grandmother has been primed for four years to come back for more. Inception being an instant classic (and showing Nolan's action chops have grown expotentially with every film) brought everything to a nice simmer. As the marketing ramps up (the wisely stayed out of the way of Avengers), we start to see all that anticipation and build up starting to boil. Everyone who thought audiences were magically done with Batman after The Avengers, I hope your boots have a minty flavor. If they score a home run, it may even go higher.

Step Up Revolution: $35 million. Why the hell is this a summer release?

The Watch: $85 million. The marketing got its legs knocked out from underneath them due to the Trayvon Martin shooting, so they've had to wait until a little over a month away before even releasing a trailer, and by now, the market is being drowned out by the impending sound of The Bat. Still, it's some pseudo-counter programming, though sci-fi comedies are a hit or miss hard game. I'm going for a conservative middle ground here, as the cast should help counter-weigh the silly plot. Never thought I'd say it, but I think Jonah Hill is hotter right now than either Stiller or Vaughn.

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Originally Posted by Sebastian OB 

I think it's hilarious that people are predicting an Oliver Stone movie will make more than 30 million dollars.

World Trade Center managed $70 million, though it was playing straight to the red states at a time when red stating it was a box office boost. I think the summer days will allow it to eck itself to $40 million; hardly a win. Unless it turns out to be uniformly terrible (not an outside prospect, sadly), in which case I might have overpredicted a full double the actual.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Sebastian OB 

I think it's hilarious that people are predicting an Oliver Stone movie will make more than 30 million dollars.

Kind of a weird thing to say since most of his movies have.

That said, he hasn't made anything more than a passable curiosity in almost two decades.  The potential of the film is all in how it plays.  It looks great, but I don't trust the guy as a filmmaker anymore.

So why was Taylor Kisch a big deal again?

Canadian charm?

Here's the July pics so far. The books are still open. 

Click to embiggen.

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Originally Posted by Ambler 

So why was Taylor Kisch a big deal again?

He wasn't.  This doesn't seem too different from the Sam Worthington thing.  He's just someone who wasn't expensive and got cast for these big movies.

Berg had already worked with him on Friday Night Lights.  According to the commentary, Stanton and his producer both liked what he did on Friday Night Lights and made him a frontrunner for the role based on that.

I'd be curious to know which he got cast for first.

Spidey- 210 million

Savages- 48 million

Katy Perry Won't Show Us Her Nipples- 39 million

Ice Age Whatever- 189 million

TDKR- 540,000,009

Step Up Step Up Revolution- 34 million

The Watch- Fuckyou million

Let me check my conversion chart here... is fuckyou million $100 million?

ETA: The 9 extra dollars for TDKR is there, just not visible on the chart.

No, it's $0.  I'll probably be the low man on that one, but whatever.

The Amazing Spider-Man - $200M. Talked about it to the point of nausea (and got a stalker out of it!) $225M is best case scenario. We're looking at another Superman Returns (For the record, big Superman Returns fan!)

Savages - 30M. Ah yes, yet another "Let's have alternative programming against the July 4th tentpole" release from Universal. Because it worked so well for Public Enemies and Larry Crowne. Oliver Stone remains an alienating figure and we can't have Taylor Kitsch avoid another flop, cant we?

Katy Perry: Part of Me - Who Gives a Fuck M. They presumably cut the Russell Brand "Inside of You" music video?

Ice Age: Continental Drift - $190M. A franchise to consistently pull in just under $200M domestic and the public is still digging em? I imagine history will repeat itself.

The Dark Knight Rises - $500M. Getting closer by the day and the anticipation is nuts (Word is it's taken up as much as 80% of Fandango's current ticket-sales!) Could seriously take the 3-day record back from The Avengers (Will at the very least get damn close...and break the midnight/single day records). As recent as a month ago, I wouldn't have said a repeat of a half-a-billion domestic gross was possible. Said $440M (with $460M as best case scenario) previously. Already eating those words.

Step Up Revolution - I'm going to say $1, Bob!. No fucking clue.

The Watch -  $100M. Sounded intriguing. Until I saw the trailers. Could be an acceptable substitute while Bats 3 butt-fucks ticket-sales (a la Step Brothers and Pineapple Express during The Dark Knight phenom).

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Originally Posted by Bailey 

No, it's $0.  I'll probably be the low man on that one, but whatever.

Gimme a hug you magnificent bastard.

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Originally Posted by User_32 


At least Worthington starred in actual big movies that made over 100 M domestically.

Well, he was cast in major roles in both Terminator Salvation and Avatar before he had been in anything anywhere near that successful.  That's what I was referring to.  

Nah, Kitsch can still coast for awhile.  He's still on the "hot" list (including a potential Hunger Games role) and he's still Peter Berg's go-to guy.  Kitsch has at least two more Berg films lined up (Lone Survivor & Friday Night Lights 2.0), so as long as Petey directs...he'll have a job.

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Originally Posted by Bailey 

 

Kind of a weird thing to say since most of his movies have.

 

That said, he hasn't made anything more than a passable curiosity in almost two decades.  The potential of the film is all in how it plays.  It looks great, but I don't trust the guy as a filmmaker anymore.

True, but I'd say this is the most commercially viable project he's done since Any Given Sunday (1999).  I'm not expecting triple digits here, but I think it will do fine.

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Originally Posted by mcnooj82 

 

Well, he was cast in major roles in both Terminator Salvation and Avatar before he had been in anything anywhere near that successful.  That's what I was referring to.  

Surely you jest!  Who wouldn't go...

"Hey, let's give that Aussie dude with supporting and bit roles in Hart's War, The Great Raid, and Rogue the lead in three of the biggest genre pictures of 2009 & 2010!"? 

Who, Joon?  WHO?!?!?!?!?!?

Honestly, I doubt quality matters at all for Brave. At this point, people are going to see a Pixar movie, full stop. And while this may be less appealing to the geeks, it's gonna be HUGE with little girls. And bigger girls. Same audience as Hunger Games, basically. And like Hunger Games, it'll attract a decent male crowd too, on the strength of the Pixar name.

I'm not playing the box office game with everyone else because I generally suck at it, but if Brave doesn't top $250 million I'll be astounded.
 

It's also a good movie.  I mean, you could say it's not one of Pixar's best, but it's not like it's some sort of terrible movie.

Quality definitely has nothing to do with it.  Pixar films open big.  Pixar films with great word-of-mouth play like crazy.  I'm not so certain his will have the latter.  Hope I'm wrong, but this one seems to be falling a little flat with audiences.  They WILL show up and show up big on opening weekend, but this doesn't seem to have the kind of "must-see" buzz that Pixar films usually have with the masses.

You're saying that because, as with Cars, this one is pitched at a non-geek audience. In this case, younger girls. Of course the geeks aren't as excited about this as they were for Wall*E or The Incredibles.

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Originally Posted by Greg Clark 

Prometheus is going to fall like a stone.

It's on pace to fall about 55% this weekend, which really isn't that bad considering its natural frontloadedness and 25% Saturday drop.

Amazing Spider-Man - 265
Katy Perry: Part of Me - 29
Savages - 22
Ice Age: Continental Drift - 188
The Dark Knight Rises - 535
Step Up Revolution - 39
The Watch - 68

I'm at a point where I think The Dark Knight Rises could outgross The Dark Knight domestically, which I'd never considered a realistic possibility before.

EDIT:

The Dark Knight Rises accounts for 16% of today's Fandango sales.  That's massive.  Big films make a splash the day they go on sale as the early birds rush to buy tickets, but I've never seen something this far out make up that big a percentage of sales in the days after initial availability.

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Originally Posted by The Prankster 

 

I'm not playing the box office game with everyone else because I generally suck at it, but if Brave doesn't top $250 million I'll be astounded.
 

You should play. The odds are on that we all suck at it.

Quote:

Originally Posted by The Prankster 

You're saying that because, as with Cars, this one is pitched at a non-geek audience. In this case, younger girls. Of course the geeks aren't as excited about this as they were for Wall*E or The Incredibles.

Geeks aren't factoring into this.  Forum and comment chatter means nothing when it comes to something like this.  I'm talking about parents and kids in the real world here.  I will gladly admit I'm wrong if this stomps the ever living shit out of half the Pixar numbers.  I'm just not expecting it to.

My guesses.

Amazing Spider-Man - 235. I just have a feeling that, as much as I've hated the marketing so far, the Spidey name is going to go a long way towards making this one a hit. Green Lantern managed over $100 and it was the absolute pits. No way this one doesn't go at least double that. And possibly further.

Katy Perry: Part of Me - 50. This is a tough one to judge, as it's hard to predict the appeal of a Katy Perry film. Hannah Montana and Justin Beiber did really well, but they were aimed at the rabid tween demo. Perry skews a little older, right? (I'm a very unhip 31, I have no clue) Will her audience pay to see it?

Savages - 40. Oliver Stone doesn't make hits, but this one will do okay on the strength of its pretty great trailer and "hot" young stars.
 

Ice Age: Continental Drift - 175.  This feels like a necessary evil for parents of young ones. It'll do the franchise's usual strong, unflashy numbers.
 

The Dark Knight Rises - 525.  The ceiling on this one is hard to predict. It's going to open HUGE, but whether this one achieves the same insta-adoration as TDK will determine whether it sails into the 500s and beyond or slows down in the low 400s. I'm going to be optimistic. If everything clicks again, look out.
 

Step Up Revolution - 40. About in line with the last one.
 

The Watch - 80. On the strength of its cast only. If it's good, it'll go higher.

Surprised you guys don't realize 99% of people won't know or care that Oliver Stone directed "Savages."

I've argued for a while on other forums that The Dark Knight Rises can't possibly get to $200m without 3D, it just can't. But I'm starting to think the impossible might actually happen. If it gets to $200m it's (and I hate having to type this as a Whedon fan) a bigger achievement than The Avengers reaching $207m.

Brave will do just fine. A lot of us will prefer Wreck-it Ralph is my guess, but Brave seems designed to appeal to young girls in the same way Cars was designed to appeal to young boys. Disappointing that Pixar would opt for lowest common denominator again, but we can hardly be surprised.

The Amazing Spider-Man has major problems that have been discussed everywhere ad nauseum. It'll probably get past $200m based on the reputedly superb 3D and blitzkrieg marketing, but it wouldn't shock me if he ends up in Avengers 2 to detox the brand.

So, predictions:

TDKR $580m

Brave $240m

Spidey: $230m

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Originally Posted by yads 

 

Brave will do just fine. A lot of us will prefer Wreck-it Ralph is my guess, but Brave seems designed to appeal to young girls in the same way Cars was designed to appeal to young boys. 

Give it a little more credit than that.  It's Brave, not "Pretty Dresses."

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Originally Posted by Bailey 

 

Give it a little more credit than that.  It's Brave, not "Pretty Dresses."

I can only go by the trailers and clips, but I'd say it's a fair comment. I know that by this point we've all got impossible expectations of Pixar, but Brave feels more like a Dreamworks product to me.

The Variety review said this about it: ""Brave" seems a wee bit conventional". From what I've seen you could probably add "and formulaic" to the end of that sentence.

I guess people were really waiting to get up in Pixar's shit all this time, because I'm surprised how eager everyone is to proclaim this movie a disappointment. And everyone I go (online), everyone is saying it looks like a Dreamworks movie.

Just for reference, here's a piece of Brave marketing:

and here's something from Dreamworks' latest, Madagascar 3: Europe's Most Wanted:

I can't speak for anyone else, but I certainly wasn't "waiting to get up in Pixar's shit". I love Pixar. I even like Cars. But something has been 'off' about Brave, from the mixed buzz during production to the trailers that were borderline insipid. And the early reviews seem to bear out that it's not among their best work.

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Originally Posted by User_32 

But the more films they release the harder it's going to be to keep topping their best. Walt Disney had the same problem in his own lifetime. The reviews aren't even mixed. Every review has said it's good. Just not great. Basically on par with the best of Dreamworks (ie How to Train Your Dragon, Kung Fu Panda). I don't know if I'd call that a "disappointment".

If it's as good as How To Train Your Dragon I'll be delighted.

I didn't mean to infer that the movie will be a disappointment, just that the tone appears to be more juvenile and less universal than Pixar's finest.

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Originally Posted by The Dark Shape 

I'm at a point where I think The Dark Knight Rises could outgross The Dark Knight domestically, which I'd never considered a realistic possibility before.

Ditto.

But beating The Avengers domestic (let alone worldwide)? Nope.

Amazing Spider-Man seems like a bit of an odd-duck at this point.  On one hand, it's the Anti-Prometheus in that the "geeks" are dismissing it due to the rebootquel nature of the thing and the early "Spider-man Begins" tone the marketing took.  On the other hand, regular non-geek folks love Spider Man...but I don't see/hear regular non-geek folks "buzzing" about the movie at all...to the point that some people are surprised to find out it's even coming out this summer (compare to Avengers and The Dark Knight Rises which darn near everyone knows/knew was coming this summer).  Then there's  the IMAX 3D preview I saw before Prometheus that did look pretty freaking spectacular (ha!) as far as the 3D went, plus the more recent previews that have made it look...not terrible, at the very least.

I guess the real question will be:  Does Sony consider Batman Begins/Superman Returns numbers to be a Batman Begins level "success" or a Superman Returns level "failure?"  Given the supposedly-trimmed budget for ASM (which if true, it does look like the studio got the most for its' money), I would lean towards the former, but who knows?  Plus, I'll go out on a limb (albeit not too far) and say that international gross on this will surpass any of the Raimi films, which will probably be enough to push it into "definitely gonna get a sequel" range. 

I thought the sequel was already a done deal?

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Originally Posted by Jmacq1 

I guess the real question will be:  Does Sony consider Batman Begins/Superman Returns numbers to be a Batman Begins level "success" or a Superman Returns level "failure?"

Pure guess. The latter based on nothing else but the marketing. It changed from straight-up admitting it was the origin again (the teaser a year ago in front of Captain America) and then pulled a 180 ("Learn Spider-Man's Greatest Secrets!") Feels like an attempt to "trick" people into thinking its another Spider-Man adventure just with a new cast a la Batman Forever.

Personally I'd say $200M gross is a good thing under these circumstances.

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Originally Posted by yads 

I've argued for a while on other forums that The Dark Knight Rises can't possibly get to $200m without 3D, it just can't. But I'm starting to think the impossible might actually happen. If it gets to $200m it's (and I hate having to type this as a Whedon fan) a bigger achievement than The Avengers reaching $207m.

Remember, Avengers sold way more tickets (25 or 26 million , as I remember, versus 22 million) than Dark Knight AND had a big 3d boost. Rises would need to sell a lot more - probably pushing 30 million tickets - opening weekend. A lot of people are going to go but I doubt 10% of the country is going to.

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Originally Posted by FilmNerdJamie 

 

Pure guess. The latter based on nothing else but the marketing. It changed from straight-up admitting it was the origin again (the teaser a year ago in front of Captain America) and then pulled a 180 ("Learn Spider-Man's Greatest Secrets!") Feels like an attempt to "trick" people into thinking its another Spider-Man adventure just with a new cast a la Batman Forever.

 

Personally I'd say $200M gross is a good thing under these circumstances.

I dunno, I've heard/read (admittedly from a source so vague I can't even recall where it was) that what we would traditionally consider the "origin" is basically the first fifteen minutes of the film.  So...yes, it's getting rehashed, but you could make the argument that it's not an "origin movie."

Quote:

Originally Posted by Ben Grimm 

 

Remember, Avengers sold way more tickets (25 or 26 million , as I remember, versus 22 million) than Dark Knight AND had a big 3d boost. Rises would need to sell a lot more - probably pushing 30 million tickets - opening weekend. A lot of people are going to go but I doubt 10% of the country is going to.

I think Forbes had it pegged at TDKR needing to sell 28 million tickets opening weekend to tie with Avengers.  I'm in the "doubtful" camp when it comes to TDKR beating or meeting Avengers' opening weekend, or even necessarily $200M opening weekend, but it will get darn close to the latter, and may surpass Avengers in overall domestic gross by the time it closes out its' run (honestly, there's less succeeding-week competition for DKR than there was for Avengers, and DKR's weekdays will likely be significantly stronger due to it still being summer and school not being in session)...if word of mouth is good. 

What if Rises sucks?  2012 seems to be the summer of disappointment.  Major, geek loved directors fucking up anticipated films.

Quote:

Originally Posted by yads 

I can only go by the trailers and clips, but I'd say it's a fair comment. I know that by this point we've all got impossible expectations of Pixar, but Brave feels more like a Dreamworks product to me.

 

The Variety review said this about it: ""Brave" seems a wee bit conventional". From what I've seen you could probably add "and formulaic" to the end of that sentence.

There's a difference between "a wee bit conventional" and "Hey, we're the most respected animation house in the world, let's make a series of movies about talking cars so we can make 8 billion in merchandising revenue!"

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Originally Posted by Ambler 

What if Rises sucks?  2012 seems to be the summer of disappointment.  Major, geek loved directors fucking up anticipated films.

Sadistic part of me wishes Nolan out-gays Batman & Robin just to see everyone's faces drop during the midnight screening.